Tag: Benjamin Bratt

Coco Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (11/21): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my estimate up a bit from $50.5 million in the three-day to $54.1 million and $74.6 million for the five-day.

Disney/Pixar looks to brings hordes of family audiences in over the Thanksgiving holiday once again when Coco debuts next Wednesday. The musical fantasy centers around the Mexican holiday Day of the Dead and features the voices of Anthony Gonzalez, Gael Garcia Bernal, Benjamin Bratt, and Edward James Olmos. It’s directed by Lee Unkrich, who last made Toy Story 3 for the studio.

The animated flick is already setting box office records in Mexico, which should be no major surprise given its setting. Reviews (as they typically are for Pixar) are solid with a current 96% Rotten Tomatoes score.

So how well will Coco perform stateside? Looking over the history of Disney’s Thanksgiving releases, there are several models to choose from. On the high-end, 2013’s Frozen took in $67.3 million for the three-day traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $93.9 million for the five-day Wednesday to Sunday gross. On the low-end, 2015’s The Good Dinosaur only managed $39.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $55.4 million for the five-day. I don’t believe Coco will achieve the Frozen peak or the Dinosaur low.

Going back to just last year, Moana earned $56.6 million for the three-day and $82 million from Wednesday-Sunday. That would be on the higher end of expectations here, but it’s certainly feasible. Like Moana, our 2017 Disney offering has good buzz and looks to be the front-runner for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.

Yet I believe it may fall a bit below that and the best model I see goes back seven years to Tangled, which took in $48.7 million for the three-day and $68.7 million for the five-day. I’ll estimate Coco gets just above that.

Coco opening weekend prediction: $54.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $74.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Roman J. Israel, Esq. prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/19/roman-j-israel-esq-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Coco

Ahead of its Thanksgiving weekend stateside debut, Pixar’s Coco has screened for critics and as is par for the course for the studio, reviews are exceedingly positive. The concept of the latest creation is centered around Mexico’s Day of the Dead holiday. Early critical reaction suggests it brings Pixar’s typical blend of heart and humor. Lee Unkrich, who co-directed Monsters Inc. and Finding Nemo and branched out solo with Toy Story 3 is behind the camera. Voices included Anthony Gonzalez, Gael Garcia Bernal, Benjamin Bratt, and Edward James Olmos.

Since 2001 when the Academy created the Best Animated Feature category, Pixar has won eight times. The most recent was two years ago for Inside Out. So let’s get this out of the way right now – Coco is unquestionably the major front runner not just for a nomination in that race, but to win.

The real question is whether or not it stands a chance at sneaking into the Best Picture race. Only two of the studio’s works have – Up in 2009 and Toy Story 3 the following year. The answer is probably not. While notices out this weekend are strong, it will likely follow the normal path of contending only in the animated portion of the evening’s festivities.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Doctor Strange Movie Review

Marvel’s Doctor Strange is their latest superhero origin story and it focuses on a brilliant yet arrogant protagonist who learns that his real purpose is to help humanity and not just use his powers for his own personal glorification. If that sounds a bit like Iron Man, the first entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, you wouldn’t be wrong. The challenge for Disney’s multi-billion dollar franchise after 14 films is to inject enough newness and other positive aspects to support its existence. In that sense, the sometimes visually stunning and very well-cast Strange passes the test.

Our newest fella to join the caped club (and it’s a pushy and sometimes humorous cape we eventually discover) is first seen as genius neurosurgeon Dr. Stephen Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch). He’s an egotistical NYC doc who’s a wizard with his hands. His two most prized possessions are irreparably injured in a wreck that serves as the most expensive anti-distracted driving commercial ever shot. The doc’s colleague and former flame Christine (Rachel McAdams) tries to help, but his desperate search to cure his idle hands leads him to Nepal. That is where he finds a mystical compound led by the Ancient One (Tilda Swinton), who informs him that true healing comes from a lot more than surgery.

Together with her trusty sidekick Mordo (Chiwetel Ejiofor), they show the doctor a whole new universe that involves plenty of training and plenty of other crazy dimensions that are packed with some pretty sweet visual effects. Scott Derrickson, known primarily for horror titles like The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Sinister, directs his biggest budget several times over and assures himself future tent poles.

There’s a main villain and he’s Kaecilius, played by a game Mads Mikkelsen. MCU movies have often seen the bad guy be the weakest link and that holds true somewhat here. The character is a former Ancient One protege gone astray and there’s nothing too memorable about him. It’s not a major hindrance at all, however, as Strange is a genuine origin story that needs some time to establish this part of the MCU (The Avengers are only referenced in passing). Plus, don’t we know at this point that the primary villain in these origin stories rarely end up being the chief nemesis anyway?

Casting is key. This series of movies we now see at least two of per year may have never gotten off the ground without the impeccable casting of Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark. And Cumberbatch is a fine choice in this title role, effortlessly balancing the drama and humor of the screenplay. Swinton and Ejiofor add some heft as well. The slight romantic subplot between Strange and Christine is typical and unremarkable, though their interaction does provide a couple of solid operating room laughs.

The aforementioned newness here is the effects, including various scenes of Inception-like architectural bravura that may leave Nolan proud. That, coupled with the performers, elevate Strange to a level well worthy of recommendation. It may not be until after the credits (and mid and post credit bonus sequences) roll, that you realize how familiar its story actually is. And I suppose that’s a credit to the franchise makers of how strong and steady their hand actually is.

*** (out of four)

http://youtu.be/15CLIuXoT7w

Doctor Strange Box Office Prediction

The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s mega billion dollar alliance with Disney rolls along as Doctor Strange opens in theaters next weekend. Based on the character created by Steve Ditko over a half century ago, this is the 14th entry in the MCU that began with Iron Man in 2008.

And that first Tony Stark pic over eight years ago is the film many critics are comparing the Doctor to. Benedict Cumberbatch is the title character with a stellar supporting cast that includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Rachel McAdams, Tilda Swinton, Benedict Wong, Michael Stuhlbarg, Benjamin Bratt, and Mads Mikkelsen. Scott Derrickson (most known for horror flicks such as The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Sinister) directs. Advance word of mouth for the reported $165 million has been quite encouraging, with reviewers praising Cumberbatch’s performance, the striking visuals, and an origin story said to be satisfying in the way that Iron Man’s was. It stands at 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

This is only the second MCU feature to open in the autumn season. 2013’s sequel Thor: The Dark World premiered to $85.7 million in early November. That’s probably the range that Strange is looking to debut at, but I’m not sure it’ll quite get there. I certainly don’t see it reaching the $94 million accomplished by Star Lord and his Guardians of the Galaxy or the $98 million that Robert Downey Jr.’s signature character got the first time out of the gate. Yet I see it outpacing the $65 million that Thor opened to in his first solo saga and $57 million from Ant-Man in summer 2015. The buzz for this one seems stronger.

Ultimately, I think this manages a mid to high 70s opening weekend. Low 80s is reachable. Regardless, this should be a new franchise for the Mouse Factory’s comic book division.

Doctor Strange opening weekend prediction: $77.3 million

For my Trolls prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/26/trolls-box-office-prediction/

For my Hacksaw Ridge prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/26/hacksaw-ridge-box-office-prediction/

 

Oscar Watch: Doctor Strange

A movie from the Marvel Cinematic Universe getting its own Oscar Watch post, you say? Yes indeed as Doctor Strange has screened for critics and the advance word of mouth is quite encouraging. The superhero tale with Benedict Cumberbatch stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

While reviews have been positive and the box office should be potent when it debuts November 4, I’m not getting carried away enough to proclaim it’ll play in Best Picture. Let’s be real: if The Dark Knight couldn’t land a nod, it’s highly doubtful this would. Yet Strange has established itself in the Visual Effects race based on the buzz. Critics have gone out their way to praise the apparently Inception like special effects.

Before the reviews, Strange was a question mark as to whether it’d get recognized in that category. Now it looks like it should join The Jungle Book as a sure thing. There’s plenty of other contenders making their way to screens in the next two months plus: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Arrival, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Passengers, and A Monster Calls. There’s also Marvel’s other entry this year, Captain America: Civil War, which should find itself in the mix.

Today’s prognosis on the Doctor, though, proves room may be needed for it in this potentially crowded race.

The Infiltrator Box Office Prediction

Throwing Bryan Cranston into a dangerous drug dealing world worked out pretty well on the small screen with his iconic role as Walter White on “Breaking Bad”. Next Wednesday, Broad Green Pictures is hoping the same holds true with The Infiltrator.

The 1980s set crime drama has Cranston as a customs agent tasked with the unenviable assignment of going undercover in Pablo Escobar’s drug cartel. Brad Furman, maker of The Lincoln Lawyer and 2013’s unfortunate Runner Runner, directs and the supporting cast includes Diane Kruger, Benjamin Bratt, John Leguizamo, and Amy Ryan. The studio is obviously hoping audiences will be primed for some adult counter programming. Reviews thus far have been pretty positive with much of the acclaim centered on Cranston. Looking over some recent similar genre titles – there is some hope. 2012’s Savages debuted to $16 million. Last year’s Sicario managed just over $12 million out of the gate.

Those are the very best case scenarios here. I believe The Infiltrator probably won’t manage double digits, even when including the five-day roll out. It seems highly unlikely to recoup its reported $47 million budget. The pic might have been better off as an early fall release and its best hope could be that viewers get their fix with it when it becomes available for home viewing.

The Infiltrator opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Ghostbusters prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/06/ghostbusters-box-office-prediction/

 

Oscar Watch: The Infiltrator

On July 13, The Infiltrator hits theaters and reviews for the 1980s set true life drug tale began surfacing this week. The pic tells the story of a U.S. customs agent who goes undercover in Pablo Escobar’s massive drug empire. Bryan Cranston plays the title character. Brad Furman (who made The Lincoln Lawyer) directs and costars include Diane Kruger, Benjamin Bratt, John Leguizamo, and Amy Ryan.

Reviews have been mostly positive – yet it stands little chance at recognition for Best Picture or for any of its supporting players. Where it could infiltrate Oscar voting is in Best Actor and, if so, it would be Cranston’s second nomination in a row. In 2015, the Breaking Bad performer received his first nod for Trumbo, despite some mixed reviews and weak box office.

Critics have been quick to point out that Cranston’s work here is the brightest spot. It also may not hurt that the actor should receive Emmy attention for his role as President Lyndon Johnson in All the Way.

We’ll see how the Actor race plays out into the fall, but Cranston could be one to watch as The Infiltrator is released in a week and a half.

 

Ride Along 2 Box Office Prediction

Kevin Hart and Ice Cube are back together again in Ride Along 2, exactly two years after the original became a breakout hit. Reuniting with director Tim Story, the action comedy sequel also features Olivia Munn, Ken Jeong, and Benjamin Bratt.

Ride Along kick started Hart’s burgeoning movie career with a three day debut of $41.5 million over the 2014 MLK Day weekend and $48.6 million over the long weekend on its way to a $134.9M domestic haul. Both stars have kept busy over the last two years, with Cube getting a special kind of exposure in last summer’s monster hit Straight Outta Compton. 

This follow-up should be in a position to possibly even improve on the original’s numbers. It helps that only a couple years have passed and the first Ride is still fresh in moviegoers minds.

I’ll project Ride Along 2 does just manage to top what came before it and the pic should be the one to finally knock Star Wars from its perch atop the charts.

Ride Along 2 opening weekend prediction: $45.5 million

For my 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/07/13-hours-the-secret-soldiers-of-benghazi-box-office-prediction/

For my Norm of the North prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/07/norm-of-the-north-box-office-prediction/