Oscar Watch: Zootopia and Sausage Party

Two wildly different 2016 animated features could both find themselves in the Best Animated Feature category come Oscar time next year.

The first is Disney’s Zootopia, which has ruled the box office kingdom for the last two weeks and looks to reach an eventual gross of $275-$300 million domestically. With a fantastic 99% Rotten Tomatoes score and bragging rights for being the biggest opener of all time for a traditionally animated tale, there is little doubt it will be among the five nominees. It could even win, though its biggest competitor might be Disney/Pixar’s Finding Nemo sequel Finding Dory, which is out this summer.

Our second possibility is Sausage Party, which screened in a rough cut at the South by Southwest Festival last night. Billed as the first hard R rated CG flick, Party comes from the minds of Seth Rogen and his writing/producing partner Evan Goldberg. In addition to Mr. Rogen, featured voices include Kristin Wiig, Jonah Hill, Michael Cera, James Franco, Danny McBride, Craig Robinson, Edward Norton, and Salma Hayek. It’s not out until August, but word of mouth from the festival is strong and this looks to be a potential sleeper hit come summer. This isn’t your typical animated material that the Academy would recognize, but it might be tough for them to ignore.

We’ll see how this race plays out as more competition is released in the coming months, but we may already have a couple of major possibilities in the mix.

The Peanuts Movie Review

For decades, the Charles Schulz comic strip Peanuts and the many TV specials it begat has inspired generations of children. While Mr. Schulz passed away just a month into the 21st century, his creation gets the 21st century treatment with spruced up 3D animation in The Peanuts Movie, with a script credit that includes one of his children and a grandchild.

The gang is all here, led by the insecure but lovable Charlie Brown and his trusty dog Snoopy. The plot hearkens back to some classic storylines as our yellow and black shirted protagonist is trying to work up the guts to impress the Little Red Haired Girl. Separately, Snoopy (with sidekick Woodstock alongside) pens a tale about being a world famous pilot rescuing his love interest Fifi from the dangerous Red Baron. Schroeder plays the piano, Linus offers sound advice, Lucy continues her love/hate relationship with our hero and dishes out 5 cent advice, and Peppermint Patty continues her supervisory role with dutiful Marcie. Kites and footballs are present.

The upgrade to 3D isn’t completely necessary but it looks just fine. The Christophe Beck score thankfully pays homage to wonderful music of Vince Guaraldi and his work in the holiday specials. There are a couple contemporary pop tunes needlessly present, but it’s not enough to serve as a major distraction.

Charlie Brown’s universal and long standing appeal is simple. We see ourselves in him with the self doubting and hopefully, with his enduring willingness to keep trying. It’s something that Schulz mastered and it is something the makers of this version also understand. Pixar has truly excelled at combining some films that satisfy the hearts and minds of kids and adults alike. While The Peanuts Movie knowingly and successfully taps the nostalgia feels of its older crowd, this isn’t in the same league. The subplot with adorable Snoopy has its moments, but occasionally feels like filler in a pic with a running time of less than 90 minutes. That said, this is a worthy addition in the Peanuts world as we continue to root for Charlie overcoming his obstacles.

*** (out of four)

Zootopia Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to end the box office domination of Deadpool next weekend with Zootopia, the studio’s 55th animated feature. It’s quite likely to succeed. The animal tale features the voices of Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, J.K. Simmons, and Shakira.

The pic has amassed positive reviews (currently 100% on Rotten Tomatoes) and it’s already done brisk business in overseas markets. Zootopia arrives just four months after a rare animated disappointment for The Mouse Factory – November’s The Good Dinosaur, which took in a much less than expected $121 million domestically.

That said, with a dearth of family fare out there, I expect this to improve on Dinosaur‘s numbers. An opening in the mid 50s seems most plausible.

Zootopia opening weekend prediction: $54.4 million

For my London Has Fallen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/london-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

For my Whiskey Tango Foxtrot prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/whiskey-tango-foxtrot-box-office-prediction/

For my The Other Side of the Door prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/the-other-side-of-the-door-box-office-prediction/

Kung Fu Panda 3 Box Office Prediction

Jack Black is back kicking it again as Po in Dreamworks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3, out next weekend. The threequel comes nearly five years after the second installment with a slew of famous faces voicing characters in the martial arts comedy toon. They include Angelina Jolie Pitt, Dustin Hoffman, Lucy Liu, Jackie Chan, Seth Rogen, Bryan Cranston, Kate Hudson, J.K. Simmons, and David Cross.

In 2008, the original Panda chopped its way to a fabulous $60 million opening on its way to a $215 million domestic haul. The inevitable 2011 sequel couldn’t quite match that performance with a $47 million premiere and $165 million take. Part 3, unlike its two predecessors, isn’t debuting in the summer so competition is less steep. That said, the five year old layover could lead to slightly dwindling returns once again.

Kung Fu Panda 3 will almost undoubtedly set one record: biggest animated opening of all time in January (it only needs to top the $19.4 million accomplished by The Nut Job two years ago). It should double that at least, but I’ll predict it has the lowest opening of the trio.

Kung Fu Panda 3 opening weekend prediction: $41.7 million

For my Fifty Shades of Black prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

For my The Finest Hours prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/the-finest-hours-box-office-prediction/

For my Jane Got a Gun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/jane-got-a-gun-box-office-prediction/

Norm of the North Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate tries to get in on the animation action with Norm of the North, opening next Friday. The 3D computer animated pic features the voices of Rob Schneider, Heather Graham, and Ken Jeong (pulling double duty over the weekend with Ride Along 2).

On MLK weekend over the past couple of years, kiddie entertainment has performed quite nicely. Last year, Paddington debuted to $18.9 million and in 2013, The Nut Job opened with $19.4 million. This Arctic set tale seems be flying a bit more south of the radar. It could possibly benefit from a dearth of family entertainment now that Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip is winding down (though Star Wars is still out there), but I believe Norm may be lucky to reach double digits for its start.

Norm of the North opening weekend prediction: $9.3 million

For my Ride Along 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/07/ride-along-2-box-office-prediction/

For my 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/07/13-hours-the-secret-soldiers-of-benghazi-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Anomalisa

Since summer, it’s been clear that one 2015 animated film is a true contender in the Best Picture race: Pixar’s Inside Out. Yet it’s becoming increasingly likely that there may be two and the other is in the form of Charlie Kaufman’s Anomalisa.

Known for his ingenious screenplays that include Being John Malkovich, Adaptation and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Kaufman’s latest is an experimental stop motion comedy drama featuring the voices of David Thewlis, Jennifer Jason Leigh and Tom Noonan. It is not an animated pic for kids with its R rating. Anomalisa premiered at Telluride before winning the Grand Jury prize at the Venice Film Festival.

Critics have gone gaga over it as its Rotten Tomatoes score is a cool 100%. Its inclusion in the Animated Feature race is a foregone conclusion. The question is whether or not it could gather enough mojo to be included in the big race, Picture. Right now I feel it’s on the outside looking in, but if any December contenders like Joy or The Hateful Eight falter, I could be singing a different tune. Anomalisa is one to keep an eye on.

The Good Dinosaur Box Office Prediction

Pixar usually isn’t in the business of releasing two titles a year, but they are in 2015 as The Good Dinosaur opens Wednesday for the long Thanksgiving weekend. Indeed this is the first time the Disney owned franchise has put out a double feature in one year and this summer’s Inside Out was the studio’s second highest domestic grosser with $356 million in sales.

The Good Dinosaur has the good fortune of being about dinosaurs in a very strong year for them as Jurassic World ruled the summer frame. Disney has played the Turkey Day box office game before to fine results: 2010’s Tangled made $48 million for the three day weekend and $68 million for the Wednesday to Sunday portion and 2013’s Frozen earned $67 million for the traditional weekend with a $93 million five day gross.

Where will this roam in comparison to those titles? I don’t see this making as much as Frozen, which had rapturous reviews. Dinosaur has received positive notices so far, but not to the fawning level of Frozen (or Inside Out for that matter). I do, however, think it’ll manage to outdo what Tangled did five years ago. I’ll forecast a three day debut in the mid to high 50s with a high 70s gross for the extended frame. That could put it in close competition for the #1 spot with the final Hunger Games, depending on how that performs this weekend and how it holds up in its second.

The Good Dinosaur opening weekend prediction: $56.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $78.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Creed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/creed-box-office-prediction/

For my Victor Frankenstein prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/victor-frankenstein-box-office-prediction/

The Peanuts Movie Box Office Prediction

Some 65 years after Charles M. Schulz’s iconic characters first appeared in newspaper comic strips – Charlie Brown, Snoopy, and company hits screens next weekend in The Peanuts Movie. It’s been 35 years since they graced the silver screen in 1980’s Bon Voyage, Charlie Brown (And Don’t Come Back!!), but the Peanuts gang have been omnipresent on our TV screens around the holidays for decades.

The reported $100 million budgeted 3D animated affair looks to score with family audiences and it should. Obviously, there’s a built-in familiarity among all ages with this franchise and 20th Century Fox has likely found itself a series with sequels to come. It’s possible that some of the parents who’d be taking their kids to see it may choose to have their own date night with Spectre, but it shouldn’t be much of a factor.

As I see it, The Peanuts Movie should manage to surpass $40 million out of the gate, though anything beyond $50M seems a little high. As long as the buzz is solid, Peanuts should able to settle in a for a very solid run through the next couple of months.

The Peanuts Movie opening weekend prediction: $43.4 million

For my Spectre prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/29/spectre-box-office-prediction/

Hotel Transylvania 2 Box Office Prediction

Three years ago on the same late September weekend, the animated Hotel Transylvania marked Adam Sandler’s second biggest domestic debut ever after The Longest Yard. Making $42.5 million out of the gate, the original monstrous comedy would top out at $148 million stateside. Therefore it’s certainly no surprise that a sequel is coming to multiplexes next Friday.

Sandler is back in voice over mode along with returnees Andy Samberg, Selena Gomez, Kevin James, Steve Buscemi, David Spade, Molly Shannon and Fran Drescher along with newbies Mel Brooks, Nick Offerman and Megan Mullaly.

Hotel Transylvania 2 will have the advantage of really being the only game in town catering to youngsters. Opening #1 shouldn’t be a problem, but whether it outdoes its predecessor is another story. While the first was well received for sure, I don’t necessarily believe anticipation is rabid for a follow up. I believe a premiere in the mid 30s is more likely than topping $40 million.

Hotel Transylvania 2 opening weekend prediction: $34.1 million

For my prediction on The Intern, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/19/the-intern-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Green Inferno, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/19/the-green-inferno-box-office-prediction/

Shaun the Sheep Movie Box Office Prediction

Family audiences are given another summer offering in the form of the Shaun the Sheep Movie, a British stop motion animated feature being released stateside Friday. It’s based on the European TV show that’s spun off from the Wallace and Gromit series. Shaun has already been released in the United Kingdom where it’s performed well.

Still, solid grosses across the pond may not equate to brisk business in this country. While reviews have been universally strong and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, this particular sheep may not have American kids flocking to the multiplex. See what I did there?

While Shaun is premiering on a wide 2200 reported screens, I believe family audiences here will mostly ignore this title and it will struggle to even reach double digits at the start.

Shaun the Sheep Movie opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million