Disney looks to end the box office domination of Deadpool next weekend with Zootopia, the studio’s 55th animated feature. It’s quite likely to succeed. The animal tale features the voices of Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, J.K. Simmons, and Shakira.
The pic has amassed positive reviews (currently 100% on Rotten Tomatoes) and it’s already done brisk business in overseas markets. Zootopia arrives just four months after a rare animated disappointment for The Mouse Factory – November’s The Good Dinosaur, which took in a much less than expected $121 million domestically.
That said, with a dearth of family fare out there, I expect this to improve on Dinosaur‘s numbers. An opening in the mid 50s seems most plausible.
Zootopia opening weekend prediction: $54.4 million
Jack Black is back kicking it again as Po in Dreamworks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3, out next weekend. The threequel comes nearly five years after the second installment with a slew of famous faces voicing characters in the martial arts comedy toon. They include Angelina Jolie Pitt, Dustin Hoffman, Lucy Liu, Jackie Chan, Seth Rogen, Bryan Cranston, Kate Hudson, J.K. Simmons, and David Cross.
In 2008, the original Panda chopped its way to a fabulous $60 million opening on its way to a $215 million domestic haul. The inevitable 2011 sequel couldn’t quite match that performance with a $47 million premiere and $165 million take. Part 3, unlike its two predecessors, isn’t debuting in the summer so competition is less steep. That said, the five year old layover could lead to slightly dwindling returns once again.
Kung Fu Panda 3 will almost undoubtedly set one record: biggest animated opening of all time in January (it only needs to top the $19.4 million accomplished by The Nut Job two years ago). It should double that at least, but I’ll predict it has the lowest opening of the trio.
Kung Fu Panda 3 opening weekend prediction: $41.7 million
For my Fifty Shades of Black prediction, click here:
Lionsgate tries to get in on the animation action with Norm of the North, opening next Friday. The 3D computer animated pic features the voices of Rob Schneider, Heather Graham, and Ken Jeong (pulling double duty over the weekend with Ride Along 2).
On MLK weekend over the past couple of years, kiddie entertainment has performed quite nicely. Last year, Paddington debuted to $18.9 million and in 2013, The Nut Job opened with $19.4 million. This Arctic set tale seems be flying a bit more south of the radar. It could possibly benefit from a dearth of family entertainment now that Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip is winding down (though Star Wars is still out there), but I believe Norm may be lucky to reach double digits for its start.
Norm of the North opening weekend prediction: $9.3 million
Since summer, it’s been clear that one 2015 animated film is a true contender in the Best Picture race: Pixar’s Inside Out. Yet it’s becoming increasingly likely that there may be two and the other is in the form of Charlie Kaufman’s Anomalisa.
Known for his ingenious screenplays that include Being John Malkovich, Adaptation and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Kaufman’s latest is an experimental stop motion comedy drama featuring the voices of David Thewlis, Jennifer Jason Leigh and Tom Noonan. It is not an animated pic for kids with its R rating. Anomalisa premiered at Telluride before winning the Grand Jury prize at the Venice Film Festival.
Critics have gone gaga over it as its Rotten Tomatoes score is a cool 100%. Its inclusion in the Animated Feature race is a foregone conclusion. The question is whether or not it could gather enough mojo to be included in the big race, Picture. Right now I feel it’s on the outside looking in, but if any December contenders like Joy or The Hateful Eight falter, I could be singing a different tune. Anomalisa is one to keep an eye on.
Pixar usually isn’t in the business of releasing two titles a year, but they are in 2015 as The Good Dinosaur opens Wednesday for the long Thanksgiving weekend. Indeed this is the first time the Disney owned franchise has put out a double feature in one year and this summer’s Inside Out was the studio’s second highest domestic grosser with $356 million in sales.
The Good Dinosaur has the good fortune of being about dinosaurs in a very strong year for them as Jurassic World ruled the summer frame. Disney has played the Turkey Day box office game before to fine results: 2010’s Tangled made $48 million for the three day weekend and $68 million for the Wednesday to Sunday portion and 2013’s Frozen earned $67 million for the traditional weekend with a $93 million five day gross.
Where will this roam in comparison to those titles? I don’t see this making as much as Frozen, which had rapturous reviews. Dinosaur has received positive notices so far, but not to the fawning level of Frozen (or Inside Out for that matter). I do, however, think it’ll manage to outdo what Tangled did five years ago. I’ll forecast a three day debut in the mid to high 50s with a high 70s gross for the extended frame. That could put it in close competition for the #1 spot with the final Hunger Games, depending on how that performs this weekend and how it holds up in its second.
The Good Dinosaur opening weekend prediction: $56.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $78.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out is a return to form for the studio in the sense that adults will likely appreciate it just as much, if not more, than the children who will see it with them. It comes from Pete Docter, the man responsible for 2009’s Up, which I believe to be Pixar’s finest hour. Inside Out shares many of the same traits in that it focuses on human emotions in a mature manner that you don’t often find in this genre.
And when I say it focuses on emotions, I really mean it. The pic tells the life of Riley, an 11 year old girl who’s about to make a big move with her family from Minnesota (where the hockey loving tyke has settled into a comfortable and happy existence) to San Francisco. We witness the trials and tribulations of this uprooting quite literally from Riley’s head, where characters representing her emotions live. There’s Joy (voiced by Amy Poehler), who prides herself on the fact that most of Riley’s memories are positive ones. There’s Sadness (Phyllis Smith), who Joy doesn’t want to have too much of a role in their girl’s day to day happenings. And we have Fear (Bill Hader), Anger (Lewis Black in an expert casting move), and Disgust (Mindy Kaling).
The big move to San Fran really upsets the apple cart in Riley’s conscious mind and it forces both Joy and Sadness on a journey to save her soul. If this sounds like heady stuff (forgive the pun), well it kind of is in the same way Up was. That’s a major compliment. While the film is dealing with very real issues, it does so with the character of Joy at the helm and the feeling of joy in its heart.
Along the way, we meet Bing Bong (Richard Kind), Riley’s forgotten imaginary friend who is a strange elephant and possibly cat hybrid who cries candy. Bing Bong is a relic of her past and there are also moments set in the Memory Dump, where no longer necessary recollections are discarded.
Inside Out is a triumph of voice over work with Poehler’s always looking on the sunny side and Smith’s polar opposite approach providing many of the highlights. This is a truly innovative concept at work here and we also get occasional glimpses of the emotion characters at work in other people’s heads like Riley’s parents, voiced by Kyle MacLachlan and Diane Lane. The animation, as we’ve certainly come to expect from this studio, is gloriously impeccable.
This may not quite measure up to the best of Docter’s Up, in which that picture’s segment about its central character’s romance with his wife and her eventual death is possibly the most amazing thing I’ve seen in a Pixar effort. Still, Inside Out proves that Docter may be the studio’s most impressive auteur and he expertly is able to entertain kids while rewarding adults on a different level. You’ll feel a significant amount of joy here and you also may find some candy welling up in your eyes at other times.
Some 65 years after Charles M. Schulz’s iconic characters first appeared in newspaper comic strips – Charlie Brown, Snoopy, and company hits screens next weekend in The Peanuts Movie. It’s been 35 years since they graced the silver screen in 1980’s Bon Voyage, Charlie Brown (And Don’t Come Back!!), but the Peanuts gang have been omnipresent on our TV screens around the holidays for decades.
The reported $100 million budgeted 3D animated affair looks to score with family audiences and it should. Obviously, there’s a built-in familiarity among all ages with this franchise and 20th Century Fox has likely found itself a series with sequels to come. It’s possible that some of the parents who’d be taking their kids to see it may choose to have their own date night with Spectre, but it shouldn’t be much of a factor.
As I see it, The Peanuts Movie should manage to surpass $40 million out of the gate, though anything beyond $50M seems a little high. As long as the buzz is solid, Peanuts should able to settle in a for a very solid run through the next couple of months.
The Peanuts Movie opening weekend prediction: $43.4 million
Three years ago on the same late September weekend, the animated Hotel Transylvania marked Adam Sandler’s second biggest domestic debut ever after The Longest Yard. Making $42.5 million out of the gate, the original monstrous comedy would top out at $148 million stateside. Therefore it’s certainly no surprise that a sequel is coming to multiplexes next Friday.
Sandler is back in voice over mode along with returnees Andy Samberg, Selena Gomez, Kevin James, Steve Buscemi, David Spade, Molly Shannon and Fran Drescher along with newbies Mel Brooks, Nick Offerman and Megan Mullaly.
Hotel Transylvania 2 will have the advantage of really being the only game in town catering to youngsters. Opening #1 shouldn’t be a problem, but whether it outdoes its predecessor is another story. While the first was well received for sure, I don’t necessarily believe anticipation is rabid for a follow up. I believe a premiere in the mid 30s is more likely than topping $40 million.
Hotel Transylvania 2 opening weekend prediction: $34.1 million
Family audiences are given another summer offering in the form of the Shaun the Sheep Movie, a British stop motion animated feature being released stateside Friday. It’s based on the European TV show that’s spun off from the Wallace and Gromit series. Shaun has already been released in the United Kingdom where it’s performed well.
Still, solid grosses across the pond may not equate to brisk business in this country. While reviews have been universally strong and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, this particular sheep may not have American kids flocking to the multiplex. See what I did there?
While Shaun is premiering on a wide 2200 reported screens, I believe family audiences here will mostly ignore this title and it will struggle to even reach double digits at the start.
Shaun the Sheep Movie opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
Two summers ago, Despicable Me 2 rocketed out of the gate over the July 4th weekend with a better than expected $83.5 million over the three day traditional weekend and $143 million over the holiday frame. Its eventual domestic gross of $368 million would be good for fourth on the list of 2013 earners.
With that glorious performance fresh in mind, it’s anticipated that Minions, out Friday, should have a stealthy opening. The 3D animated pic is a spinoff of Universal’s venerable franchise that should easily tide fans over until Despicable Me 3 hits screens in the summer of 2017.
Lots of familiar faces populate the voices behind the characters, including Sandra Bullock, Jon Hamm, Michael Keaton, Allison Janney, Steve Coogan and Geoffrey Rush. Reviews have been mostly positive as it stands at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes, which exactly matches the number posted by DM2. There will be competition as Pixar’s Inside Out continues to post robust numbers, but family audiences should have no trouble fitting these cute little Minions in their schedule.
I would anticipate the film debuting to just under the $100 million mark and the possibility certainly exists that it could top that magic century mark. Whether or not it reaches the eventual gross of its franchise predecessor remains to be seen.
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