August 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Expect a rather sleepy weekend at the box office as the dog days of August roll along. We have three releases ahead of us as action threequel Angel Has Fallen, sports themed Christian drama Overcomer, and critically hailed black comedy Ready or Not debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/13/angel-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/14/overcomer-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/16/ready-or-not-box-office-prediction/

While I do have Angel flying to the top spot, I have performing under the premieres of predecessors Olympus and London Has Fallen. I think there’s a chance it goes even lower and finds itself in a race for #1 with the second weekend of Good Boys (which surpassed all prognoses this weekend).

Overcomer is an interesting one. It’s from the director of War Room, which performed spectacularly four summers ago. These faith based pics have a history to over perform, though that’s not always guaranteed. I’m giving it the five spot behind the fourth weekend of Hobbs & Shaw and sixth weekend of The Lion King.

I am not seeking an impressive gross for Ready or Not despite its solid reviews. It’s out on Wednesday. My $5.8 million traditional Friday to Sunday estimate and $7.7 million five-day projection leaves it outside my top five.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Angel Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

2. Good Boys

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

3. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

4. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. Overcomer

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

Box Office Results (August 1618)

It was a frame that saw five new releases and if it wasn’t named Good Boys, it didn’t do well. The aforementioned preteen comedy took in $21.4 million, way beyond my $14.3 million prediction. Boys is the first R rated comedy to hit #1 in over three years and it should manage to leg out decently.

Hobbs & Shaw was second with $14.1 million, a touch more than my $12.8 million estimate. It’s at $133 million.

The Lion King took third at $12.3 million (I said $11.1 million) for a whopping $496 million overall.

The Angry Birds Movie 2, which I said would be #1, struggled in fourth with just $10.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million since its Tuesday opening. That’s well below my expectations of $17.2 million and $25.4 million, respectively.

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $10 million. My prediction? $10 million! Tally is $40 million.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold mined $8.5 million in its sophomore outing for sixth (I said $9.3 million). The unimpressive total is $33 million.

47 Meters Down: Uncaged was lost at sea in seventh place with $8.4 million. I was higher at $10.2 million. The shark sequel couldn’t match the $11 million plus earned by its predecessor two summers ago.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was eighth with $7.6 million, in line with my $7.1 million estimate. The Quentin Tarantino flick stands at $114 million.

I incorrectly had The Art of Racing in the Rain outside the top ten, but it was ninth with $4.5 million. Two-week gross is $17 million.

The Bruce Springsteen inspired dramedy Blinded by the Light failed to find an audience in tenth with $4.3 million (I gave it more at $5.8 million).

Finally, Richard Linklater’s Where’d You Go, Bernadette performed even weaker in 11th with a measly $3.4 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Angel Has Fallen Box Office Prediction

In 2913, Olympus Has Fallen surprised box office prognosticators with a gross of $98 million stateside, eclipsing the earnings of the similarly themed and higher profile White House Down from that same year. The Gerard Butler action thriller has now spawned two sequels with Angel Has Fallen rising in cinemas next weekend.

Butler’s Secret Service agent now finds himself framed for the attempted assassination of Morgan Freeman’s character. Ric Roman Waugh, best known for directing Dwayne Johnson in Snitch, is behind the camera. Costars include Jada Pinkett Smith, Lance Reddick, Tim Blake Nelson, Piper Perabo, Danny Huston, and Nick Nolte.

As mentioned, Olympus was a sleeper hit that soared out of the gate with $30 million. 2016 follow-up London Has Fallen couldn’t match those numbers with a $21 million start and $62 million eventual tally.

My expectation is that the third edition will continue the downward trend. Mid to possibly high teens is likely. In the dog days of August, that might be enough for an unremarkable #1 debut.

Angel Has Fallen opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million

For my Overcomer prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/14/overcomer-box-office-prediction/

For my Ready or Not prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/16/ready-or-not-box-office-prediction/