Tag: Alan Tudyk

Oscar Predictions: Zootopia 2

As they frequently do over the Thanksgiving holiday, Disney should reign supreme with an animated effort. In 2025, they’ll do it via Zootopia 2 which follows up the 2016 original. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing. Returning voice work comes from Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Shakira, Idris Elba, Alan Tudyk, Bonnie Hunt, and Jenny Slate. Newcomers to the franchise include Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, and Danny Trejo.

At the 89th Academy Awards, Zootopia won Best Animated Feature against fellow studio competitor Moana and the acclaimed Kubo and the Two Strings. It opened early in the calendar (March) and maintained frontrunner status throughout the long awards season. Reviews were strong with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic.

The sequel is also generating solid critical reaction with 93% on RT and Metacritic at 73. Those numbers are sturdy enough that I’m confident Zootopia 2 has reserved a spot in the Animated Feature quintet. It also has a shot to be victorious like its predecessor. However, I’ve had it ranked in second position behind the cultural juggernaut that is Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters. Overcoming that streaming phenomenon could be a tall order. It might be achievable but leaving it in second feels right unless precursors alter the narrative. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Twits

An animated tale based on Roald Dahl’s 45-year-old novel, The Twits is out on Netflix and its marks the solo directorial debut of Phil Johnston after co-directing Disney’s Ralph Breaks the Internet. The voice cast includes Margo Martindale, Johnny Vegas, Natalie Portman, Emilia Clarke, Maitreyi Ramakrishnan, Jason Mantozoukas, Timothy Simons, Alan Tudyk, and Nicole Byer.

The source material earned high praise for the author while the film adaptation has not. Rotten Tomatoes is at 53% with a 46 on Metacritic. It is fair to assume this won’t be getting the Animated Feature nomination that went to 2009’s Dahl based Fantastic Mr. Fox. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Electric State

What does an astronomical $320 million budget get you in Hollywood these days? Apparently a mid-March Netflix release and a heap of critical derision. Meet The Electric State, a comedic sci-fi adventure hitting the streamer March 14th from Anthony and Joe Russo of Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame fame. The human cast for the ultra expensive flick includes Millie Bobby Brown, Chris Pratt, Ke Huy Quan, Stanley Tucci, Woody Norman, Giancarlo Esposito, and Jason Alexander. An equally impressive voice cast includes Woody Harrelson, Anthony Mackie, Brian Cox, Jenny Slate, Alan Tudyk, Hank Azaria, Colman Domingo, and Rob Gronkowski.

It is worth noting that the Russo’s follow-ups to the Avengers juggernauts are the unimpressively reviewed Cherry and The Gray Man. Yet this appears to be receiving the worst of it with 23% on Rotten Tomatoes and 30 on Metacritic. The term “wasted potential” pops up more than once. Only the visual effects would be a possibility for awards attention and the Electric buzz might sink that. This has much more viability at the Razzies than with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Moana 2

Moana 2, out this Thanksgiving weekend, was originally conceived as a Disney+ limited series before morphing into a proper sequel with a theatrical release. Now it’s widely expected to set the all-time record Turkey Day frame opening. David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller direct with Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Rachel House, and Alan Tudyk returning for voiceover work. Khaleesi Lambert-Tsuda, Rose Matafeo, and David Fane are among new cast lending behind the mic talents.

In 2016, Moana set the Friday to Sunday premiere record over Thanksgiving which still stands today… for the moment. The animated adventure also picked up two Oscar nominations in Animated Feature (where it lost to fellow Disney blockbuster Zootopia) and the Original Song “How Far I’ll Go”. That track came up short to “City of Stars” from La La Land.

The Mouse Factory waited until the last minute to lift the review embargo off of the sequel. It has a so-so 72% on Rotten Tomatoes (its predecessor has 95%) and 57 on Metacritic (Moana landed 81). That reaction likely won’t nab it one of the five slots in Animated Feature (though Disney should score a spot with Inside Out 2). As for songs, Lin-Manuel Miranda was involved in the tunes eight years ago. Without his involvement, don’t expect Moana 2‘s ditties to resonate with Academy voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Moana 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to smash its own Thanksgiving opening records when Moana 2 lands in theaters on Wednesday, November 27th. The sequel to 2016’s musical adventure is directed by David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller. Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Rachel House, and Alan Tudyk reprise their voiceover work. Klaheesi Lambert-Tsuda, Rose Matafeo, and David Fane are new faces behind the mic.

Eight Turkey years ago, Moana took in $248 million domestically. It set the all-time Friday to Sunday opening Thanksgiving frame high mark with $56.6 million and that record still stands. Ralph Breaks the Internet from the Mouse Factory holds the five-day best of premiere at $84.7 million (just edging Moana‘s $82 million). Moana 2 seems poised to rather easily surpass those figures.

The follow-up is additionally looking to top Frozen II‘s largest three and five-day grosses for any picture over the holiday. That would be $85.9 million and $125 million, respectively. I don’t think that’s a guarantee, but part 1 is well-regarded enough that I think it gets there with some room to spare.

Moana 2 opening weekend prediction: $92.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $130.3 million (Wednesday to Monday)

Oscar Predictions: Wish

In 2023, Disney finds itself in the rather rare position of not having a Best Animated Feature frontrunner at the Oscars. The category started in 2001 and 15 of the 22 previous winners have been released by the Mouse House. This summer’s Elemental got decent enough reviews that it probably has a spot in the eventual five nominees.

I’m not sure the same can be said for Wish. The musical from directors Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn and featuring the voices of West Side Story gold statue recipient Ariana DeBose and Chris Pine comes out over the Thanksgiving holiday. With its review embargo lifted, the Tomato meter is at only 62%. That is certainly below most Disney animated offerings and it brings awards viability into question.

In my view, Elemental (a bit fresher at 74%) is behind Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (definitely the favorite) and The Boy and the Heron. I still think it gets in. That leaves two spots. Wish will need to compete with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Nimona, and The Peasants to make the cut. Its legendary studio will need to work their campaigning magic to have two competitors in the race.

Wish may have a slightly better shot at Original Song with DeBose singing “This Wish”. Yet it’s quite possible that Wish could be granted zero nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Wish Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/20): Middling reviews have led to a downgrade in my estimate to low 30s for the three-day and mid 40s for the five.

Disney seeks a return to a Thanksgiving tradition by having an animated offering in the top spot with the release of Wish on November 22nd. Chris Buck (who co-helmed the Frozen features) and Fawn Veerasunthorn direct with a voice cast including Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine, Alan Tudyk, Angelique Cabral, Victor Garber, Harvey Guillén, Evan Peters, Ramy Youssef, and Jon Rudnitsky.

The musical fantasy would love to replicate the performance of the Frozen entries, but would certainly settle for the earnings of pre-COVID Turkey weekend offerings. In 2016, Moana opened to $56 million from Friday to Monday and $82 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday of the holiday frame. Coco in 2017 started off with $50 million over the three-day and $72 million for the five-day. In 2018, Ralph Breaks the Internet took in $56 million from Friday to Monday and $84 million over the extended holiday.

On the other hand, the Mouse House wants to avoid a Good Dinosaur level performance from 2015. It made $39 million for the three-day and $55 million with the extras.

My hunch is that Wish is granted a performance closest to Coco levels while not quite reaching those figures. I’ll project a mid to high 40s output over the regular weekend and mid to high 60s when factoring in those extra days when kiddos are out of school.

Wish opening weekend prediction: $32.2 million (Friday to Monday); $46.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Napoleon prediction, click here:

Napoleon Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: Raya and the Last Dragon

As we await the five nominated pictures in the 2020 Animated Feature race at the Oscars, a legitimate hopeful has already emerged for 2021. This Friday, Disney’s traditionally drawn Raya and the Last Dragon debuts in theaters and on Disney Plus. The action fantasy features a mostly Asian American voice cast including Kelly Marie Tran, Awkwafina, Daniel Dae Kim, Gemma Chan, Sandra Oh, and Benedict Wong. Directing duties are handled by Don Hall (whose Big Hero 6 landed an Academy nod in 2014) and Carlos Lopez Estrada.

Reviews are up and they’re very solid at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. Unsurprisingly, Disney has been quite the player since the inception of the animated category back in 2001. As is often the case for the studio, the Mouse Factory may well compete against itself with Pixar’s Luca slated for release this summer. That will probably occur this year with Soul and Onward as likely nominees.

Bottom line: the critical reaction for Raya (even this early in the calendar) establishes it as a sturdy contender for recognition already. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Raya and the Last Dragon Box Office Prediction

A totally different kind of COVID test arrives in theaters March 5 with the release of Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon. It’s the latest traditionally animated feature from the Mouse Factory and it hits multiplexes and Disney+ on the same day. The fantasy adventure is co-directed by Don Hall (who made Big Hero 6 for the studio) and Carlos Lopez Estrada (maker of the decidedly non Disney pic Blindspotting). The predominately Asian-American voice cast includes Kelly Marie Tran, Awkwafina, Gemma Chan, Daniel Dae Kim, Sandra Oh, Benedict Wong, and Alan Tudyk.

Raya marks the highest profile release of 2021 thus far on the big screen. The question is whether family audiences will mostly opt to shell out thirty bucks to watch it on the tube. All things considered – that’s probably less money than a night out for a clan of four to view it. And the Disney+ model is already familiar to subscribers with recent products such as Mulan and Soul.

In these uncertain pandemic days, it is difficult to find any real comps for opening weekend estimates. The Croods: A New Age debuted over Thanksgiving weekend and took in a better than anticipated $14 million over the five-day frame with nearly $10 million of it from the traditional Friday to Sunday portion. Yet that’s not exactly a reliable comp as Croods was a sequel to a well known property out during a holiday period. Still… this is Disney…

As I’ve said repeatedly with any box office guesstimates for nearly a year, we are in unpredictable territory. However, I’ll say Raya makes between $11-$14million and I’ll go a bit on the higher end of that range.

Raya and the Last Dragon opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million

For my Chaos Walking prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/02/24/chaos-walking-box-office-prediction/

Aladdin Box Office Prediction

The second of four live-action renderings of Disney animated features in 2019, Aladdin is wishing for bountiful box office returns over Memorial Day weekend. Directed by Guy Ritchie, the musical fantasy adventure casts Will Smith as the genie in a role made iconic in 1992 by Robin Williams. In the title role is Mena Massoud with Naomi Scott as Princess Jasmine. Costars include Marwan Kenzari, Nasim Pedrad, and Billy Magnussen.

Reaction to the teaser was mixed at best. The full trailer was better received. The film follows this spring’s Dumbo, which was a bit of a disappointment with a $45 million opening gross. The Lion King will follow later this summer with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil in the year’s fourth quarter.

While there’s little doubt Aladdin will rule the holiday frame, it’s got a wide range of possibilities. The Mouse Factory’s largest start for one of its reimaginings was 2017’s Beauty and the Beast, which roared to $174 million. Don’t expect anywhere near that kind of number. Some forecasts are putting this in the $100 million four-day ballpark, but I have serious doubts about that.

I could actually see this performing similarly to Mr. Smith’s other Memorial Day opener – 2012’s MIB 3, which earned $69 million. For a Disney comp, there’s 2015’s Cinderella with its $67 million haul. Given that there’s an extra day involved, I’ll bump Aladdin up slightly.

Aladdin opening weekend prediction: $74.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Brightburn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/15/brightburn-box-office-prediction/

For my Booksmart prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/17/booksmart-box-office-prediction/