Tag: Adam Driver

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 1st Edition

Hello all! Welcome to December and welcome to my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions!

It’s been seven days since my last Turkey Day estimates in the eight major categories. A lot can change in a week and there’s been significant developments since we were all couch bound after our Thanksgiving feasts.

Let us count them…

1) Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally held some screenings, meaning buzz is out. Official reviews are embargoed until December 10, but the first reactions indicate that the director’s latest could be a force in the Oscar race. My predictions reflect that. Furthermore, initial word makes one wonder whether it’ll be Liam Neeson or Adam Driver that get the lion’s share of attention in Supporting Actor.

2) A number of awards precursors have rolled out their winners and nominations. We begin with the National Board of Review. Yesterday, the NBR bestowed their winners upon us. They are: Manchester by the Sea (Best Film), Barry Jenkins for Moonlight (Director), Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Actor), Amy Adams in Arrival (Actress), Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (Supporting Actor), Naomie Harris in Moonlight (Supporting Actor), Manchester by the Sea (Original Screenplay), and Silence (Adapted Screenplay). The critics organization also lists ten other pictures on the year’s best list and they are: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail Caesar!, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Moonlight, Patriots Day, Silence, and Sully. Now – the NBR’s list of films have not and will not match what the Academy does. For instance, Hail Caesar! is not going to nab a Best Picture nod (it’s never been in my top 20 list of possibles and still isn’t). All the others, however, are at least feasible. The most notable snub is Fences, though I’d say it’s still near the top for Academy recognition. Lion is another notable omission.

3) The Critics Choice Awards came out today with their nominations. An important caveat: Silence (and Passengers and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) weren’t screened in time for consideration. The CCA nominates 10 pictures and they are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and Sully. Another note: the upcoming Jackie got no Picture love from the NBR or CCA.

There are seven nominees for Best Director and six each in the acting and screenplay races. They are:

Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Denis Villeneueve (Arrival), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Gibson’s nod is a fascinating one and he may have slightly increased his chances at Oscar attention. That said, it’s important to remember that Scorsese (who’s almost sure to get a nomination) was ineligible.

Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Nothing out of the ordinary here, though Garfield seems more likely to get Acting attention for Silence via the Academy.

Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land). Note: No nod for either Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) or Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane).

Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals). Note: While some awards prognosticators have listed Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins as a possibility, his fortunes seem to be dwindling. Also, no Mykelti Williams or Stephen Henderson for Fences. 

Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea). No real surprises here.

Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight. Again, no shocks though the ignoring of Jackie continues here.

Adapted Screenplay: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Nocturnal Animals, Sully. With Hacksaw getting Pic and Director and Actor attention, a bit surprising it didn’t land a nod here.

4) The New York Film Critics Circle named their winners today. La La Land (the current front runner for Best Picture) was victorious. However, Director went to Barry Jenkins yet again for his work in Moonlight. Casey Affleck took another Actor prize with Isabelle Huppert in Elle helping her case out with an Actress win. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Michelle Williams (for both Manchester and Certain Women) won their Supporting categories. The NYFCC combines screenplay into one and Manchester took top honors there.

Whew. Lots of information, I know, with plenty to digest! Taking all that into account and knowing there’s a bunch more precursors to come – here’s where I have the eight major races standing at this moment:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 4)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

5. Fences (PR: 2)

6. Lion (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 8)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

9. Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

11. Jackie (PR: 9)

12. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 16)

13. Sully (PR: 15)

14. Patriots Day (PR: 13)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)

17. Live by Night (PR: 14)

18. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)

20. The Founder (PR: 19)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Pablo Larrain, Jackie

Best Actor

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)

5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 6)

9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 5)

8. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

7. Adam Driver, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 7)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

2. Moonlight (PR: 1)

3. La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

5. Loving (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7. The Lobster (PR: 8)

8. Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 3)

3. Lion (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

Other Possibilties

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

8. Sully (PR: 10)

9. Elle (PR: 9)

10. Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Whew! And there you have it…

Let’s see what transpires over the next 7 days until my next round! Until then…

 

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Continuing on with my first round of Oscar predictions, day two brings us to Best Supporting Actor. In both 2014 and 2015, my late August/early September initial picks yielded two out the eventual five nominees. Last year, these first picks correctly identified winner Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies.

There are plenty of contenders to list at this early stage. One of the big question marks in plenty of categories is Martin Scorsese’s Silence, a passion project and historical drama that has yet to release a trailer or announce when it’s coming out. It is assumed that it’ll be out in time for Oscar consideration. If so, Liam Neeson is likely to be a contender in this race (and maybe costar Adam Driver).

As mentioned yesterday with Kristen Stewart in Supporting Actress, Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk appears to be a potential major awards player and the beloved Steve Martin could reap the benefits with his first ever acting nod. Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund are also possibilities.

Michael Shannon could be under consideration for two high-profile fall entries – Jeff Nichols’ Loving or Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.

Barry Jenkins’ indie African-American romantic drama Moonlight is getting attention (I predicted Naomie Harris yesterday for Supporting Actress recognition) and Mahershala Ali (known to many as Remy Danton on Netflix’s “House of Cards”) could find himself in the mix.

Damien Chazelle’s La La Land is also expected to garner Oscar talk (it’ll screen for critics on the festival circuit in days) and it could feature a breakout role for singer John Legend.

And there’s many more possibilities, including Warren Beatty’s return to the silver screen in Rules Don’t Apply. There’s John Goodman’s already acclaimed work in 10 Cloverfield Lane (though the genre could make him a long shot). Or maybe a first nomination for Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins. And there’s two movies that Aaron Eckhart could find himself being considered for.

As always, the list will be updated in the weeks and months ahead, but for now…

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

John Legend, La La Land

Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Liam Neeson, Silence

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Other Possibilities:

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Kyle Chandler, Manchester by the Sea

Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

Robert De Niro, Hands of Stone

Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Adam Driver, Silence

Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

Aaron Eckhart, Sully

Brendan Gleeson, Live by Night

John Goodman, 10 Cloverfield Lane

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Armie Hammer, The Birth of a Nation

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Stephen Henderson, Fences

Oscar Isaac, The Promise

Nick Offerman, The Founder

Edgar Ramirez, Gold

Michael Shannon, Loving

J.K. Simmons, La La Land

Timothy Spall, Denial

Chris Tucker, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

And there you have it! Best Actress tomorrow…

Midnight Special Movie Review

Jeff Nichols’ Midnight Special is an occasionally very effective family drama masquerading as a sci-fi genre piece. None of the elements contained here are really fresh, but the writer/director manages to find ways to the audience intrigued with some stellar performances to boot.

The pic tells the story of Alton Meyer (Jacob Lieberher), an eight year old Texas boy seemingly kidnapped by his father Roy (Michael Shannon). Alas, it’s not so simple. The young lad holds supernatural powers that his father knows gives him a far greater cause than he can fathom. If Dad were to tell others that his son’s eyes light up, he means it differently than most. Alton has spent the past couple of years in the care of a religious cult who believe he can predict the end times. The United States government are fearful that he’s a weapon. They’re both chasing him as Roy and his state trooper buddy (Joel Edgerton) try to get Alton where he needs to be. Mom (Kirsten Dunst) eventually enters the frame as well.

Part of the joy of Midnight Special is the genuine unpredictability that pervades the first half especially. The story reveals itself gradually as our protagonists speed along to a destination unknown for the majority of its running time. Shannon has appeared in all four Nichols features. He may not look like your typical leading man these days (he may have been more at home in the 70s), but he has again and again proven his ability to carry a film. Lieberher is understated and effective and all aforementioned supporting players do fine work. This also extends to Adam Driver as a sympathetic NSA operative (not a movie term used often for that profession).

By the director’s own telling, this is partly an homage to the 1970s/80s genre masters before him like Spielberg and John Carpenter (the score could have been composed by him). When we reach the third act, it’s still engaging even if a sense of familiarity and an anti-climactic tone chimes in. For more overt sci-fi throwbacks to the era Nichols is celebrating, we have Super 8 and now Netflix’s “Stranger Things”. The most rewarding moments here lie in the drama of a father’s love for his son and willingness to do anything for him. Anything in the universe.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Midnight Special

Two years ago, the Berlin Film Festival premiered a pair of films that garnered a total of 15 Oscar nominations – Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel and Richard Linklater’s Boyhood. Both were nominated for Best Picture.

One of the hottest titles to emerge from 2016’s Festival that could potentially merit Academy Awards chatter is Jeff Nichols’ Midnight Special, a science fiction drama that received glowing reviews. Nichols is the director behind critical darlings Take Shelter and Mud. His pictures have yet to receive awards attention, but that may finally change. Special stars Michael Shannon, Joel Edgerton, Adam Driver, Kirsten Dunst, and Jaeden Lieberher (the child actor who costarred alongside Bill Murray in St. Vincent).

With an 88% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the film is said to be a throwback to 80s sci-fi efforts of Spielberg and John Carpenter. Reviews have especially made note of Shannon and Dunst’s work, who could be factors in the Actor and Supporting Actress races, respectively. Best Picture and Director could figure in, however I believe Special‘s best chance might be in Original Screenplay, penned by the director.

Obviously it’s early in 2016 to see how this will pan out. Yet if Special can manage solid box office grosses (a question mark) and remain in conversations over the remainder of the year, it could join Hotel and Boyhood as another Berlin success story.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens Movie Review

When the famous line “A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away” appears and the Star Wars emblem rockets across the screen, it evokes a series of emotions that is familiar to any lover of the franchise. It changes from generation to generation but is likely strongest with those old enough to recall the first time seeing it in 1977 when the original premiered. The first Star Wars was a cultural phenomenon from the get go. It solidified what we now know as the modern blockbuster era. Its sequel The Empire Strikes Back improved upon it. Return of the Jedi ended the trilogy on a satisfactory if more uneven note. I was not alive in 1977 and I witnessed the series in a weekend of VHS viewing where I was captivated like legions of film lovers across the globe.

By the time George Lucas got around to making his prequel trilogy, I was age 19 at the time of The Phantom Menace. Like all other fans of what came before it, I anticipated Menace breathlessly and like many others, it was a letdown in many fashions. It didn’t really look like a Star Wars pic. More like a video game. In all honesty, the concept of watching the eventual Darth Vader as a precocious child wasn’t really necessary. Follow ups Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith were improvements in some ways (especially Sith) yet still didn’t come close to matching the magic of the real trilogy (as I refer to it).

Therefore it was with a sense of major excitement mixed with some trepidation that I awaited Star Wars: The Force Awakens, episode VII of the franchise that picks up about 30 years after the events of Return of the Jedi. George Lucas sold the rights to Disney, who have grand Marvel style plans for the series. J.J. Abrams, who successfully reinvigorated the Star Trek flicks, is behind the camera. The beloved trio of Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill), Han Solo (Harrison Ford), and Princess (now General) Leia (Carrie Fisher) would return along with Chewbacca, R2-D2, and C-3PO. A new generation of heroes and villains would emerge. The three year wait is finally over and the question is ready to be answered: does Force have the force to bring Star Wars back in the good graces of those who cherish it? The answer is mostly an unqualified and resounding yes.

Episode VII informs us that Luke Skywalker has vanished and the evil First Order (spawned from Darth Vader’s galactic empire) has restored its dominance despite a resistance led by Leia. The Resistance is desperately attempting to obtain a map containing Luke’s whereabouts that is built into BB-8, a droid that is pretty adorable in a manner in which Jar Jar Binks sure wasn’t. One of the leaders of the movement is pilot Poe Dameron (Oscar Isaac), whose character doesn’t have much impact in these proceedings but likely will in future installments. He teams with Storm Trooper gone good Finn (John Boyega) on the mission to find Skywalker. And that BB-8 droid leads them to Rey (Daisy Ridley), a young girl who has a connection with The Force. Their union soon brings them to Han, Chewie, and the now relic called the Millennium Falcon to fight First Order Commander Kylo Ren (Adam Driver) and Supreme Leader Snoke (Andy Serkis).

As we’d expect, there are some revelations about who some of the characters actually are. I wouldn’t dream of spoiling them here. J.J. Abrams is keenly aware of our nostalgia goggles and he presents a vision that hearkens back to the original in both plot and tone. This is a plus. J.J. and his cowriters Lawrence Kasdan (who penned Empire and Jedi) and Michael Arndt are clearly cognizant of the expectation to start anew while rewarding what we adore about episodes IV-VI. There is much plot to roll out, but Awakens does so at a usually brisk pace throwing in the epic battles that look more like we wish for in any entry since 1983.

The John Williams score and special effects are, of course, top notch. Of the returnees, Mr. Ford is given the most material and provides Solo wisecracks and some emotion. Fisher acquits herself decently even though Leia is primarily relegated to the sidelines. As for Luke, the filmmakers have been careful to reveal nothing and neither will I. When it comes to the newcomers, we sense that Rey, Finn, and Poe will establish the new trio for the next few years. Here it is Rey that jumps out and much of that is due to a fine performance from Miss Ridley. Boyega’s Finn has his moments along with occasionally clunky dialogue. Driver is quite effective as Ren and we have a new villain whose motivations create an intriguing dynamic in this universe.

I would rank The Force Awakens as the third best pic in the series, after the first two (slightly above Jedi). Abrams and company accomplish something Lucas ultimately could not with episodes I-III. We care more about the actions transpiring here than with anything from 1999-2005. This is a franchise awakened in a way we have not seen in over 30 years. For those who might have had a bad feeling about this, fear not.

***1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This weekend, Star Wars: The Force Awakens looks poised and primed to demolish box office records. It’s sold $100 million in pre-sale tickets (a previously unimaginable figure). The Disney marketing machine has been in hyper drive. Hyperbole it is not to say this is the most eagerly anticipated picture of the 21st century.

Over the last few months, I’ve been writing my Oscar predictions and now it’s to the point where I’m doing weekly predictions as we draw closer to the actual nominations coming in January. Through it, Star Wars has hung out there like a giant question mark. If it got rave reviews, could it potentially become a player not just to smash records, but to enter the Oscar fray?

Today the landscape has become clearer as the review embargo has been lifted on the eve of its release. And the word that’s emerged is glowing like Luke Skywalker’s lightsaber. Based on 127 reviews so far, The Force Awakens stands at a magnificent 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. I’ll confess that I’m being careful not to read the reviews (I’ll be seeing it Sunday and my own review will be on the blog that day), but the consensus is undeniably that this is a welcome return to the most beloved franchise in history.

Does that mean The Force Awakens could become the first entry in the series to nab a Best Picture nomination since the original in 1977? Yes… it does. Is it guaranteed? No and my predictions on Friday likely won’t have it making the cut. However, as it premieres to what could be history making numbers and with critics on its side, the forces could align to include it and possibly J.J. Abrams in the directing race. Stay tuned…

Star Wars: The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction

It is not only the most anticipated film of the year but probably of the 21st century. This is not hyperbole. 38 years after George Lucas changed the movie industry forever with Star Wars, the baton has been passed to J.J. Abrams with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, out December 18. We’ve seen over a decade pass since the unevenly received second trilogy that ran from 1999-2005. This marked the end of Mr. Lucas’s involvement in the franchise and the end of 20th Century Fox producing the entries (no iconic Fox music before “In a galaxy far, far away” may take a little getting used to).

Instead we have Disney taking over the most beloved franchise in silver screen history and we’ve repeatedly seen their brilliance at marketing blockbusters (think Marvel Cinematic Universe). The Force Awakens has been omnipresent for months and it’s ramped up to the point where every other commercial seems to be connected somehow to it. The official trailers and TV spots have been events. It’s sold $100 million dollars at press time in pre-sale tickets, which was previously an unimaginable haul. With all the exposure, the studio has done a truly remarkable job in keeping plot details under wraps.

We know this: original trilogy stars Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford, and Carrie Fisher return in the iconic roles of Luke Skywalker, Han Solo, and Princess Leia. A new generation makes up the supporting cast that includes John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, and Domhnall Gleeson. Oh and there’s Chewbacca, R2-D2, and C-3PO.

For those of us old enough to remember the breathless anticipation afforded to 1999’s Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace, it’s probably the only thing that compares in the past couple of decades. There are many hotly anticipated blockbusters but Star Wars is simply on a different planet.

So now the nine figure question: how much will The Force Awakens earn its opening weekend? How much is it capable of making? Will its debut set the all time record? Fascinating queries indeed, these are.

We begin with this: the current record holder came out just this summer when Jurassic World earned $208.8 million, which edged out previous champ The Avengers at $207 million. I’m sure Disney would love to get that record back that the dinosaurs took away in June. These are the only two pictures that have made over $200M out of the gate. Both were released in summer, as are seven of the all time top ten domestic premieres.

None came out in December and this is not an inconsequential point. In fact, the current highest December debut belongs to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. It made $84 million and that’s good for just the 57th largest opening ever. Truth be told, even massive blockbusters that open in December usually open smaller than they might in the summer. 2009’s Avatar began with $77 million before becoming the biggest stateside grosser ever. The reason is simple: Christmas time releases tend to play well over multiple weekends while similar summer titles make the bulk of their coin immediately.

Let’s dispatch with the glaringly obvious: The Force Awakens will obliterate the December record. At worst, it should double The Hobbit’s initial earnings. Frankly, guessing what Star Wars is capable of is a dicey proposition, but the low end of estimates is around $170-$175 million. If it managed that, it would sincerely be a fine start.

Yet there is a suspicion that Jurassic’s six month long record could be headed for extinction. The combo of Disney hype and a true love across all ages for the series has contributed to an Event Experience we rarely witness. What’s the highest it could go? Honestly, I don’t know. The figure of $300 million has been mentioned. That seems a bit crazy, but you just never know. There’s part of me that believes $275-$280 million might just be reachable and another that feels it could fall short of the record with around $185-$205 million.

What’s a box office predicting blogger to do? Split the difference. With this wide range of possibilities, I’ll project that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will achieve the best American opening ever and by a rather considerable margin. I’ll be one among many speculating over the next ten days before its debut, but my two cents is in, my friends. Let’s see what happens!

Star Wars: The Force Awakens opening weekend prediction: $234.7 million

For my Sisters prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/sisters-box-office-prediction/

For my Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-box-office-prediction/

This Is Where I Leave You Box Office Prediction

It’s got all-star cast and a director who’s had his share of successful comedies, but I have my doubts as to whether This Is Where I Leave You will have much of an impact with audiences. Shawn Levy, the man behind the Pink Panther reboot, the Night at the Museum franchise and Date Night, is behind the camera. The family comedy’s cast includes Jason Bateman, Tina Fey, Jane Fonda, Adam Driver, Rose Byrne, Corey Stoll, Dax Shepard, Connie Britton, Kathryn Hahn, Timothy Olyphant, and Abigail Spencer.

Yet my take is that the TV spots and trailers haven’t made this look like a must-see and reviews are mixed. This is the exact type of flick that audiences might wait to watch at home in a few months. The high-profile cast could theoretically push it to a bigger opening that I’m imagining, but my gut says it won’t even reach the mid teens and be a box office disappointment like Levy’s last outing, The Internship.

This Is Where I Leave You opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million

For my prediction on The Maze Runner, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/the-maze-runner-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on A Walk Among the Tombstones, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/14/a-walk-among-the-tombstones-box-office-prediction/