Paul Greengrass directed movies have occasionally resonated with the Academy from a Best Picture nom for 2013’s Captain Phillips to a directing nod for 2006’s United 93 to tech recognition for 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum, 2020’s News of the World, and last year’s The Lost Bus.
The Englishman’s latest project is the 14th century set period drama The Uprising starring Andrew Garfield and featuring Jamie Bell, Stephen Dillane, Tom Hollander, Cosmo Jarvis, Thomasin McKenzie, Woody Norman, and Katherine Waterston. The Focus Features project is out this weekend where it’s expected to struggle at the box office.
It’s also unlikely to resonate with awards voters. Rotten Tomatoes is at 54% with a 53 on Metacritic. I’m skeptical it even gets serious consideration (and may not make shortlists) for down the line categories that are friendly to the genre (Production Design, Sound, Costume Design). The Uprising faces an uphill battle. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Does Musk smell like an Oscar contender? The documentary is bound to be one of the higher profile genre entries of 2026 with Alex Gibney directing a near four hour look at Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a lightning rod for controversy.
It premiered at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend and was a bit overshadowed by the unexpected debut of You Can See Everything, another buzzy doc that made a splash at Telluride. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 77 on Metacritic.
Gibney’s Taxi to the Dark Side was the Documentary Feature victor in 2007 and he has helmed numerous acclaimed flicks on the big and small screen. Musk could definitely get in the five nominated docs, but I think it’s less likely than others like Once Upon a Time in Harlem and the aforementioned Everything.
Musk could miss Documentary Feature and still get into Original Song where David Byrne has written and sung the track “Let Me Sell You a Dream”. The former Talking Heads frontman is an Academy recipient for his score to 1987’s The Last Emperor and was nominated four years back in Original Song for “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Florian Zeller had an Oscar hit right out of the gate with his debut 2020 feature The Father. Nominated for six Academy Awards including Best Picture, it would win Zeller an Adapted Screenplay trophy (adapting his own play) as well as Anthony Hopkins taking home Best Actor. It received a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating. The filmmaker’s 2023 follow-up The Son with Hugh Jackman? 28%.
That’s the definition of a sophomore slump and lots of curiosity greets third pic Bunker. It has screened at the Venice Film Festival prior to its anticipated release later this year. The psychological drama stars real life spouses Penélope Cruz and Javier Bardem with support from Stephen Graham, Paul Dano, and Patrick Schwarzenegger. The RT score sits at a middling 55% and 46 Metacritic. The MC number is only one point above The Son.
In other words, Bunker‘s Oscar chances equal Zeller’s predecessor at non-existent. For Cruz, she will likely be walking the red carpet next year anyway with a supporting nod for either The Invite or The Black Ball (or both based on a fresh rule change). Her husband has more of an outside shot in lead Actor for The Beloved. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Telluride Film Festival was abuzz with word that a nearly three hour documentary screening would be unveiled yesterday from A24. That doc turned out to be You Can See Everything from Canadian comedian Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim (also doing the fest circuit for directing Primetime).
In Everything, the filmmakers are granted access to Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes in the weeks before she begins serving an 11 year prison sentence for fraud. While Holmes’s story and legal activity has been covered in an HBO doc and in the acclaimed limited series The Dropout with Amanda Seyfried, Everything received kudos at Telluride. It promises to be one of the highest profile docs of 2026 when it comes out in October.
The early WOM and anticipated wide exposure could certainly mean it grabs one of the five slots in Best Documentary Feature. I will warn that this branch of the Academy can be unpredictable. I’m not sure Everything is ahead of my current frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Harlem and perhaps not others like American Doctor. I am sure that it has one of the creepiest teasers I’ve witnessed that isn’t a horror flick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
What are the awards possibilities for Lee Chanh-dong’s Possible Love now that it has premiered in Venice? The South Korean drama is the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2018’s Burning which was selected by its nation as their International Feature Film pick but failed to make the final cut. Jeon Do-yeon, Sul Kyung-gu, Zo In-sung, and Cho Yeo-jeong star with a stateside release for October 23rd and a Netflix streaming bow on November 6th.
Early reviews are impressive with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a perhaps more notable 96% on Metacritic. Even with that rapturous reaction, one wonders how much room for international product could make up the 10 Best Picture nominees. Love will need to compete with The Black Ball (which has likely punched its ticket) and potentially the Cannes winner Fjord and All of a Sudden. It is a legit question whether Netflix will throw most of the campaigning behind Ball.
If Love were to take the top prize at Venice, chances in the big dance would immediately rise. However, as of now, I think International Feature Film is perhaps the sole nomination with an outside shot at Original Screenplay. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Musical comedy The Debut is Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to 2024’s A Real Pain which was nominated for Best Original Screenplay and earned Kieran Culkin a Best Supporting Actor victory. It probably came awfully close to a Best Picture spot. Based on its Telluride premiere before its December 11th stateside release, The Debut‘s Oscar haul should be more substantial. Julianne Moore stars as a bored New Jersey housewife cast in a community theater production with Paul Giamatti as her challenging director. The supporting cast includes Eisenberg, Halle Bailey, Havana Rose Liu, and Bernadette Peters.
Distributed by A24 (who will have a busy season with The Invite and Primetime as well), early WOM is electric. Metacritic stands at 90 while the 8 RT write-ups are all fresh. Don’t be surprised if this is the studio’s most viable contender in several races. This is also the type of subject matter that should hold major appeal to the Academy.
That is especially true in Actress and Supporting Actor. Before the Telluride bow, I had Moore and Giamatti listed 1st in their respective derbies. Frankly, I felt more confident about Giamatti’s placement. There is an overdue factor with the veteran actor and this seemed like a perfect vehicle for recognition. He was likely close to win status in supporting for 2005’s Cinderella Man and lead for 2023’s The Holdovers. He could certainly maintain his pole position status in my next update.
Yet it’s Moore who is generating career best notices. She is going for her sixth nom from the Academy. After being up in supporting for 1997’s Boogie Nights, lead for The End of the Affair (1999) and Far from Heaven (2002), and supporting for 2002’s The Hours, Moore was a Best Actress winner for Still Alice in 2014. I basically had her as a placeholder in lead for The Debut, but Telluride buzz has shown her as a huge threat to make a second trip to the podium a few months down the line.
Eisenberg appears poised for another Original Screenplay shot while his inclusion in Best Director is more of a question mark. I do feel The Debut‘s reaction sets it up for a Best Picture slot. Editing, Casting, Original Score, and Original Song are also on the table. A24 is expected to tout a track titled “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” sung by Moore and Peters. Eisenberg, Moore, and Giamatti are going to be busy on the awards circuit for the 99th ceremony and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Simon Stone’s Elsinore has premiered at Telluride prior to its Focus Features release on November 20th. Andrew Scott stars as actor Ian Charleston (best known for Best Picture winner Chariots of Fire from 1981) as he prepares to play Hamlet while suffering from AIDS. Olivia Colman plays his doctor with Billie Piper, Johnny Flynn, and Luke Thompson providing support.
The early RT rating is 90% with 79 on Metacritic. Scott is an Emmy, SAG Actor, and Golden Globe nominee who has yet to get a mention from the Academy. That could very well change with Elsinore. I’ve had him in my Best Actor quintet for a few weeks and don’t plan on dropping him. I recently put Colman in Supporting Actress. She could still make the cut though I’m less convinced she ends up with a spot.
Scott might be the sole nomination here as Original Screenplay seems iffy. Focus hopes that Scott’s momentum means recognition elsewhere (including BP) but I suspect I’ll only predict him in my next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ahead of its September 25th theatrical bow, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime has screened at Venice. Is it ready for Oscar attention? Depends on the high profile category. Robert Pattinson stars as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen with a supporting cast including Merritt Wever, Skyler Gisondo, Phoebe Bridgers, Bokeem Woodbine, Anna Faris, and Alex Winter.
Critics are praising the grimy look covering dark subject matter in the thriller. It sports a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes with a clearer picture Metacritic rating of 74. Pattinson is having himself a year with acclaimed roles in The Drama and The Odyssey. His turn as the potentially dangerously driven Hansen could be his strongest shot at a Best Actor nom. He could definitely make the quintet though I’d feel even more confident if I felt Primetime had a better chance in BP.
Most of the focus has been trained on Pattinson before reviews came out. Yet it’s worth noting that Wever and Gisondo are getting MVP shoutouts in write-ups. If Primetime exceeds expectations, either or both could come along for the ride. Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography and maybe Casting are also doable. Don’t be shocked, however, if only Pattinson is represented at the primetime ceremony and that’s a question mark. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Legendary English auteur Mike Leigh has stated that Tender Loving Care is most likely his last feature film after a career of indie dramas. Several have garnered awards attention including seven personal mentions for his directing or screenwriting. Those nominations cover a quintet of pics: 1996’s Secrets & Lies, 1999’s Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake from 2004, 2008’s Happy-Go-Lucky, and 2010’s Another Year. Leigh has yet to win.
Care stars Kate O’Flynn, Marion Bailey (Leigh’s real life partner), Paul Jesson, and Alice Bailey Johnson. Premiering at Telluride before moving to Toronto and New York, Bleecker Street is releasing it December 4th. Early reviews indicate this is a touching dramedy that would serve as a fine swan song to his career.
I’m not so sure the critical reaction is strong enough for this to be in the Best Picture conversation. O’Flynn and Bailey, in a best case scenario, could be chatted up in the Actress and Supporting Actress fields. The former is having a banner year with an acclaimed performance on Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay which could earn her an Emmy.
The likeliest scenario might be Leigh receiving his sixth and potentially final try in Original Screenplay and that being Care‘s sole nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
New octogenarian Paul Schrader’s has been prolific over the past few years pumping out his dark morality tales and his latest is The Basics of Philosophy. It premiered out of competition at Venice while it awaits U.S. distribution. Jack Huston, Sofia Boutella, Daniel Zovatto, Bill Pullman, and Dana Delany (who costarred in Schrader’s 1992 Light Sleeper) are among the cast members.
Schrader received his one and only Oscar nomination for penning 2018’s First Reformed. This is pretty shocking considering the Academy didn’t recognize for screenwriting contributions for Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, or Affliction. Since Reformed, he’s written and directed The Card Counter, Master Gardener, and Oh, Canada and none of them have resonated with voters. Early WOM for Basics is mixed enough that it won’t enter the awards conversation either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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