The Heat Box Office Prediction

We’ve seen countless male buddy cop comedies over the last few decades, but this weekend at the box office, we have something different. Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy headline the female buddy cop comedy The Heat, from Bridesmaids director Paul Feig.

The picture was pushed back from its original April release date to a higher profile June summer slot. That’s actually a good sign that the studio is confident they have a hit on their hands. They’re probably right.

With a modest reported $43 million budget, The Heat features the very well-liked Bullock and McCarthy, who is on fire at the box office right now. In February, McCarthy’s Identity Thief (which received mostly negative reviews) debuted to a fantastic $34.5 million. It would stand to reason that this film, with its added star power of Bullock, would debut above that.

Another feather in the cap: this is just about the only title out there targeting a female audience. That worked out beautifully for May’s The Great Gatsby, which scored a $50 million debut. The prospect of The Heat reaching that number is certainly possible.

Ultimately, I feel it will debut somewhere between Thief and Gatsby. We have a very real race between whether this or the weekend’s other newcomer, White House Down, debuts higher. My prediction for its competitor can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/23/white-house-down-box-office-prediction/

I believe girl power will win out over Mr. Tatum and Mr. Foxx over the weekend. By my prediction, The Heat will outdo its own budget in its first weekend.

The Heat opening weekend prediction: $44.7 million

 

Tom Cruise Loves To Run

Let me start off by saying that I’m a huge Tom Cruise fan. He makes better choices than most actors. When he hit it real big in the mid 80s with Risky Business and Top Gun, he clearly went on to consciously choose films based mostly on director. That led to him working with Spielberg. Scorsese. Kubrick. Paul Thomas Anderson. De Palma. Sydney Pollack. Rob Reiner and Ron Howard. Cameron Crowe. Barry Levinson and Oliver Stone. JJ Abrams and John Woo. Michael Mann. And that career path turned him into the biggest movie star in the world for quite a while.

There’s something else I’ve noticed with TC over the years. The dude loves to run in movies. I mean… loves to run in movies. So much so that I turned to “the Google” to see if anyone else had noticed.

They have.

There’s a Tumblr site dedicated to shots of him running where they also point out the rare film where he doesn’t, like 2008’s Valkyrie or 2007’s Lions for Lambs. For the most part, though, he runs…

http://tomcruiserunning.tumblr.com/

We have video compilations of Mr. Cruise gettin’ his run on:

And… here’s the best YouTube compilation I found of Cruise runs:

Funny stuff. On http://www.letsrun.com – there is a forum dedicated to breaking down his rather awkward running style:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5075228

Tom Cruise loves to run so much in movies that he seems to come up with excuses to do it, even when the screenplay doesn’t really call for it. Cruise and costar Robert Duvall have a foot race in Days of Thunder. That film, as you probably know, is about race car drivers. Why do they have a foot race? I’m guessing because it’s an excuse to show TC’s mad running skills and prove he’s not just speedy in a vehicle.

In The Firm, Cruise’s wife played by Jeanne Tripplehorn freaks out when he tells her their house is bugged. She flips out so hardcore that she runs out of the house, forcing Cruise to run even faster to catch her. Had she seen almost any of his earlier pictures, she would’ve known that no one… no one outruns Tom Cruise. He also finds an excuse to sprint through his law office in that movie too:

And apparently if the script doesn’t legitimately call for a running scene, Cruise will find a way to invent one. Case in point: 2001’s Vanilla Sky. No decent excuse for Tom to get that cardio up? How about an elaborate dream sequence where he runs by himself through Times Square? Does it have much to do with the rest of the film? Not so much, but it gave him a golden opportunity to shut the streets of New York City down to run his lil heart out…

Remember this great scene from Minority Report when TC is about to get caught and he reminds his captors that “Everybody Runs” before, you know, running? One of the cops reminds him, “You don’t have to run.”

In Tom Cruise’s case, that’s simply not true. Based on his movie history, Tom Cruise usually has to run. A lot. Usually awkwardly. Sometimes for a reason. Sometimes not.

 

White House Down Box Office Prediction

It’s Django and Magic Mike teaming up in the action flick White House Down, which comes to us just three months after Olympus Has Fallen. That film featured a nearly identical plot (White House under siege) and also a smaller budget and less star power. Olympus was a surprise critical and commercial success, grossing a way better than expected $98 million domestically.

The question is: will audiences be eager to line up for something they’ve already seen so recently? White House Down does have the advantage of Tatum and Foxx, two actors coming off recent 2012 blockbusters. Tatum is the secret service agent and Foxx is POTUS. Its had a decent marketing campaign and was featured prominently during the recent NBA Finals. There’s also director Roland Emmerich, who is a master of blowing stuff up real good. His previous features include Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow, and 2012.

On the flip side, there’s the very real competition factor. World War Z debuted well above expectations with $66 million and should have decent grosses in its sophomore frame. Man of Steel will be in its third weekend. Both titles are direct competitors.

I can see White House Down debuting as low as in the $25 million dollar range, which would be very disappointing. Being that World War Z grossed $66M (an entire $23M above my projection), I’m hesitant to put a ceiling on Down‘s gross. Honestly though, I feel anything above $50 million would be pretty surprising. In a normal summer, WHD might feel like an event picture with the pedigree involved. After two months of Tony Stark, Kirk and Spock, Superman, and Brad Pitt fighting zombies, this movie almost looks a little small potatoes. This is a tough one, but at the end of the day, I’m predicting White House Down does respectable if unspectacular numbers and just breaks above the $40M mark.

White House Down opening prediction: $40.3 million

Man of Steel Review

Man of Steel may fall short in a number of ways from being a satisfying film experience, but none of them are related to decibel volume. From Hans Zimmer’s score (which never seems to stop running with its dramatic flourishes) to the ear-splitting near constant action, this reimagining of the Superman saga is filled with loud noises! Or as Brick puts it much better:

300 and Watchmen director Zack Snyder was brought in to reinvigorate a franchise that devolved into utter silliness in the late 80s with the Christopher Reeve versions (after a solid first two outings). And there’s the matter of Superman Returns just seven summers ago. That picture was meant to restart the series but was deservedly met with mixed critical and audience reaction. Returns, directed by Bryan Singer, chose to establish a continuum from the original Reeve flicks. Nothing wrong with that… it just didn’t work for the most part. Box office results were not great. Even though it made $200 million domestically, that was considered a letdown and the idea of Brandon Routh ever donning the cape again fell by the wayside.

Man of Steel goes its own way and concentrates more on treating the Superman character as what he truly is… an alien. And an alien who is unsure how to establish himself on planet Earth. Man of Steel correctly plays up the notion that us Earthlings may not be so quick to welcome this superhero to our world. Yes, he can help us. He could also destroy us.

The decision to go that direction marks the film’s most satisfying and new concept. The execution of the concept is a mixed bag. Henry Cavill makes a serviceable Superman, though if we’re in comparison mode – he doesn’t leave even close to the impression that, say, Christian Bale did as another famous crusader. There’s no time for him to play the nerdy Clark Kent and we’ll wait until the inevitable sequel to see how that pans out.

Casting is an issue here. Amy Adams is a supremely talented actress, but I would maintain she’s miscast as Lois Lane. Nothing particularly wrong with her performance, but the character is not well-written and she has limited chemistry with Mr. Cavill. Michael Shannon is another terrific actor, but he’s a bit shackled to what he can do with his General Zod character other than dramatically spout sometimes silly dialogue. The actors who acquit themselves the best are Kevin Costner as Clark’s Earth daddy and Russell Crowe as Krypton daddy. And Antje Traue as Zod’s second-in-command is actually the most memorable villain.

The makers of Man of Steel obviously wanted to go in a more serious direction here  than previous Supes pictures, closer in spirit to the Nolan Dark Knight flicks (Chris Nolan is an exec producer). A lot of the early action set on Krypton is well-developed and exciting. To me, it’s the last half of the movie that gets tiresome. It’s pretty much wall-to-wall action. A lot of it works, but some of it doesn’t. There are certain special effects shots that surprisingly look cheesy. There are others that look amazing. The main problem: the movie fails for the most part to establish any emotional connection to the audience (save for the Costner/Crowe scenes). The idea that Superman and Lois fall for each other feels forced. By the time we’re sitting through the endless fighting in the final 45 minutes, I got… well, bored to be honest.

Man of Steel sets itself up perfectly for a sequel and I hope it gets better… same feeling I had when I watched The Amazing Spider-Man last summer. Don’t get me wrong, film fanatics – Man of Steel is worth a look, but it might leave you feeling a little hollow inside. At least there’s a whole lotta:

**1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Results: June 21-23

Well, I was 1 for 2 as far as new releases at the box office this weekend as Pixar’s Monsters University took the top spot and World War Z had a much bigger than expected opening.

Monsters University had the second largest Pixar opening after 2010’s Toy Story 3 with an estimated opening weekend of $82 million. My prediction? $82.1 million! Gold star! Clearly, family audiences were ready to embrace the prequel to the 2001 original.

Brad Pitt scored the biggest opening of his career as the zombie thriller World War Z exceeded forecasts with an impressive $66 million. I only projected for $43.8M. Oops. A lot of the pre-buzz involving Z was negative with stories about budgets overruns and reshoots. Positive reviews and a shrewd marketing campaign helped turn that buzz around and audiences responded.

Man of Steel took the three spot in its second weekend with $41.2 million, dipping below my $47.7M projection. Rounding out the top five, This Is the End was fourth with $13M (higher than $11.3M projection) and Now You See Me was fifth with $7.8M (above my $6.5M projection).

I’ll have projections up for next weekend’s openers, White House Down and The Heat, up soon… stay tuned!

Box Office Predictions: June 21-23

Pixar gets in on the summer action with the prequel Monsters University, which is bound to open atop the box office this weekend. Earlier this week, I wrote my post with my prediction for it:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/17/monsters-university-box-office-prediction/

The weekend’s other new release is a bit of a question mark – the zombie action flick World War Z starring Brad Pitt. Once again, my detailed analysis outlining my forecast can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/17/world-war-z-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, it will be fascinating to see how Man of Steel performs in its second weekend. It had the biggest June opening of all time and audiences generally seem to like it. Critics were much more mixed. Films that open as large as Steel usually suffer drops in the 60% range and I really see no reason why this won’t. Still – Warner Bros. can’t get a sequel for this out fast enough.

Rounding out the top five, I expect This is The End and Now You See Me to drop in the forties range. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Monsters University

Predicted Gross: $82.1 million

2. Man of Steel

Predicted Gross: $47.7 million (representing a drop of 59%)

3. World War Z

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

4. This is The End

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Now You See Me

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Per usual, I’ll post updates on the Facebook page throughout the weekend with final results Sunday. Stay tuned for next week on the blog when I predict The Heat and White House Down.

World War Z Box Office Prediction

It’s not a Pixar prequel set at a university, but this weekend’s other new release has its own share of monsters as well in the form of zombies with World War Z. Based on a 2006 bestseller, the zombie pandemic action extravaganza is headlined by Brad Pitt.

And truth be told – most of the buzz for a long time about the picture was not positive. Its budget reportedly bloated to $200 million dollars. Stories abounded about shooting going longer than expected, reshoots, and rewrites. The film was delayed from its original December 2012 release date. For a while, it looked like World War Z may qualify as a contender for a high-profile bomb.

In the last couple of weeks, however, an interesting occurrence happened. It was screened for critics. And the results have been positive. It currently sits at a solid 79% on Rotten Tomatoes.

So how will this translate to box office numbers? First, we have the competition factor. Man of Steel will be entering its second weekend and looks poised to post numbers north of $50 million in its sophomore frame. The movies are certainly going for the same demographic.

The question is: can World War Z outdo Man of Steel‘s second weekend numbers in its first weekend? It certainly could and a gross of over $50M wouldn’t surprise me. However, I’m going a little lower here. Reviews suggest Z might have decent legs in subsequent weeks, however.

World War Z opening weekend prediction: $43.8 million

Monsters University Box Office Prediction

The battle for top animated movie of the summer begins this weekend at the box office. The question is: will it be Monsters University or Despicable Me 2 that end up as 2013’s highest grossing kiddie pic?

Pixar gets first crack as Monsters University, a prequel to 2001’s Monsters Inc. It’s worth noting that 12 years is a long break between any follow-up film, even a successful animated feature. That’s why some are predicting Despicable Me 2 (where the well-received original came out just three years ago) might outdo University.

Monsters Inc. was the fourth Pixar title. Monsters University is the fourteenth. Let’s take a look at Pixar’s opening weekend during that time frame, shall we?

Monsters Inc. (2001): $62.5 million

Finding Nemo (2003): $70.2 million

The Incredibles (2004): $70.4 million

Cars (2006): $60.1 million

Ratatouille (2007): $47 million

Wall-E (2008): $63 million

Up (2009): $68.1 million

Toy Story 3 (2010): $110.3 million

Cars 2 (2011): $66.1 million

Brave (2012): $66.3 million

So where will Monsters University fall? Well, it’s highly unlikely to have the all-time Pixar opening weekend record. Toy Story 3 has that wrapped up. However, it’s got a great shot at #2. It would need to make just over $70 million for that designation and the film may well top $80 million. It’s certainly got a built-in audience, the revered Pixar name, and it is the only title out there marketing primarily towards the kid audience (Epic has grossed what it’s going to gross). A typical Pixar $70M gross wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m going on the high end with my prediction.

Monsters University opening weekend prediction: $82.1 million

Box Office Results: June 14-16

It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s a terrific box office prediction by yours truly!

Yes, I will pat myself on the back this weekend because the radar was clicking with Man of Steel. While most prognosticators went with between $80-$100 million, I boldly predicted the Superman reboot would gross $124.3 million. Estimates put it at $125.1 million. Gold star!

Zack Snyder’s Steel got mixed reviews, but its A- Cinemascore grade indicates audiences were pleased with what they saw.

I did go a bit high on the all-star comedy This is The End. It earned $20.5 million over the weekend and $32.8 million over its five-day take (it opened Wednesday). My estimates were $25.2M and $38.6M, respectively. Still, that’s a pretty solid opening – especially considering it cost only $32M to make.

The rest of the top five: Now You See Me was third was $10.3M (I guessed $11.5M), Fast and Furious 6 was fourth with $9.4M (I said $10.5M), and The Purge had an enormous drop in its second weekend with $8.2M (I said $13.2M).

That’s all for now folks! I’ll have predictions for both of next weekend’s openers, Monsters University and World War Z, up on the blog very soon!

Box Office Predictions: June 14-16

In will undoubtedly be the return of Superman in Man of Steel that rules the box office this weekend. The only question is: how big will it open? I made my fearless prediction earlier in the week here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/09/man-of-steel-box-office-prediction/

Some would call my prediction a bit generous. Since I wrote the post on Sunday, reviews for Steel have come out. They’re mixed and I frankly thought the critical reaction would be more positive. However, this doesn’t take away from the fact that the pic is eagerly anticipated and has terrific trailers. We’ll see how the prediction holds up.

The weekend’s other new release, the all-star comedy This Is the End, is generating great reviews and also has the bonus of trailers that work. It officially opened wide today but its Tuesday evening numbers are encouraging. It could be even go bigger than my prediction. Time will tell. My post predicting End can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/10/this-is-the-end-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, expect fairly modest declines for Now You See Me and Fast&Furious 6. The largest decline should be for last weekend’s #1, The Purge, which outdid all expectations by a mile but also only received a C Cinemascore grade. A precipitous drop looks likely.

With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Man of Steel

Predicted Gross: $124.3 million

2. This Is the End

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million ($38.6 million projected five-day gross)

3. The Purge

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 61%)

4. Now You See Me

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Fast&Furious 6

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

And there you are! Check back this weekend for early results on the FB page and on Sunday for final results when we see just how high Superman flies.