White House Down Box Office Prediction

It’s Django and Magic Mike teaming up in the action flick White House Down, which comes to us just three months after Olympus Has Fallen. That film featured a nearly identical plot (White House under siege) and also a smaller budget and less star power. Olympus was a surprise critical and commercial success, grossing a way better than expected $98 million domestically.

The question is: will audiences be eager to line up for something they’ve already seen so recently? White House Down does have the advantage of Tatum and Foxx, two actors coming off recent 2012 blockbusters. Tatum is the secret service agent and Foxx is POTUS. Its had a decent marketing campaign and was featured prominently during the recent NBA Finals. There’s also director Roland Emmerich, who is a master of blowing stuff up real good. His previous features include Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow, and 2012.

On the flip side, there’s the very real competition factor. World War Z debuted well above expectations with $66 million and should have decent grosses in its sophomore frame. Man of Steel will be in its third weekend. Both titles are direct competitors.

I can see White House Down debuting as low as in the $25 million dollar range, which would be very disappointing. Being that World War Z grossed $66M (an entire $23M above my projection), I’m hesitant to put a ceiling on Down‘s gross. Honestly though, I feel anything above $50 million would be pretty surprising. In a normal summer, WHD might feel like an event picture with the pedigree involved. After two months of Tony Stark, Kirk and Spock, Superman, and Brad Pitt fighting zombies, this movie almost looks a little small potatoes. This is a tough one, but at the end of the day, I’m predicting White House Down does respectable if unspectacular numbers and just breaks above the $40M mark.

White House Down opening prediction: $40.3 million

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