We are back at it for my second round of Oscar predictions – October edition. The acting categories have been completed and we’ve arrived at Best Director with Best Picture up next. And from my initial round of estimates nearly two months ago, much has changed. In fact, only two of my five original picks remain: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant and Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs, who have both won this category before with Birdman and Slumdog Millionaire, respectively.
Out of the lineup are Todd Haynes (Carol), Tom Hooper (The Danish Girl), and David O. Russell (Joy). All remain possibilities. Joining the party are Tom McCarthy for Spotlight and Lenny Abrahamson for Room. Their pics have caught on as major festival favorites that are both set to hit screens nationwide in the next couple of weeks. For the fifth slot – there’s plenty of possibilities but I’m going with a bit of an upset name for now: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road. He’s a long respected director whose return to the franchise that made him famous over three decades ago was seen as a triumph and I could see his fellow auteurs honoring him.
We shall see how it plays out when my third round arrives in November, but for now:
Three new films open this Halloween weekend and I have every one of them debuting to below $10 million. They are: Bradley Cooper drama Burnt, zombie comedy Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, and Sandra Bullock political comedy/drama Our Brand Is Crisis. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
After the downright embarrassing performances of some of last week’s newbies (much more on that below), I’m not even supremely confident that putting each of these new entries in the $7-9 million range is correct, but we shall see.
**blogger’s update: due to the previously unknown knowledge that Scouts Guide is only opening on 1500 screens, I am downgrading my $8 million estimate to just $4.2 million
As for the top spot, it could continue to be a battle between The Martian and Goosebumps and my estimates reflect a photo finish. Bridge of Spies, in its third weekend, should continue its small declines from week to week.
And with that, we’ll do a top five projections for what should be a sluggish frame before Spectre and The Peanuts Movie roll out the following weekend:
Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)
2. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)
3. Burnt
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 29%)
5. Our Brand Is Crisis
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (October 23-25)
Well, I thought it might be an unpredictable weekend and was it ever! Not too often that my #1 pick comes in seventh and my #4 pick finishes on top, but that’s exactly what happened.
Ridley Scott’s The Martian climbed back into the #1 position with $15.7 million, ahead of my $12.5M projection to bring its fine total to $166M in four weeks.
Last weekend’s champ Goosebumps fell to second with $15.5 million, under my $17.8M estimate for a two week tally of $43M. As mentioned above, I expect this and The Martian to duke it out for box office supremacy once again this weekend.
Bridge of Spies was third in weekend two with $11.3 million, on target with my $11.9M projection for a $32M total.
The first newcomer of five lackluster debuts belonged to Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, taking in just $10.8 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. Poor reviews and a blah marketing campaign didn’t help.
Animated holdover Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $8.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a current $148M haul.
In sixth was Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension with $8 million (as opposed to my $9.7M projection). The latest and reportedly final entry in the franchise went out with a whimper, partly due to its low number of screens due to controversy about it debuting on VOD in just two weeks. This caused several theater chains to boycott it. While this opening is certainly soft, it is worth noting that it had the highest per screen average of anything in the top ten.
The big surprise of the weekend was the performance of Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs, which came with sizzling Oscar buzz. I predicted it would win the weekend with $19.6 million, but it stumbled with a seventh place showing at $7.1 million – obviously way less than expected. Jobs will hope for small declines over subsequent frames as the studio hopes it can possibly play well into awards season.
Guillermo del Toro’s dud Crimson Peak was eighth in its sophomore frame with $5.6 million (I said $6.1M) for a lackluster $22M gross.
Positions nine and ten belonged to holdovers that I didn’t predict would be there – The Intern with $3.7 million and Sicario with $2.8 million. Their respective grosses stand at $64 and $39M.
That’s because two other new flicks had disastrous debuts. Bill Murray’s critically reviled Rock the Kasbah made just $1.4 million compared to my extremely generous $7.8M estimate and the live-action version of 80s cartoon Jem and the Holograms posted a pathetic $1.3 million (I said $4.1M). That’s good for respective 13th and 15th position debuts. Ouch.
And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…
**blogger’s note – due to previously unknown knowledge this is just opening on 1500 screens, I’m revising my original $8 million projection to just $4.2 million
Next weekend we have yet another zombified horror comedy as Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse hits screens. From the screenwriter of a number of the Paranormal Activity franchise flicks, Apocalypse stars Tye Sheridan, David Koechner and even Cloris Leachman.
It is tough to imagine this breaking through in any major way. Moviegoers have certainly seen their share of this genre in recent years and I am skeptical this will succeed in capitalizing on its Halloween weekend release. Like both other new entries rolling out next weekend (Burnt and Our Brand Is Crisis), I don’t believe this will manage double digits for its premiere.
Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million
After his Oscar nominated smash hit American Sniper early this year, Bradley Cooper may experience his second box office disappointment with Burnt, out next weekend. The comedic drama features Cooper as a formerly drug addicted chef trying to rebuild his life. Costars include Sienna Miller, Uma Thurman, Daniel Bruhl, Alicia Vikander and Emma Thompson.
Reviews have not been strong as Burnt currently sits at just 31% on Rotten Tomatoes. It appears to be following a similar path to this summer’s Aloha with Cooper, which debuted to only $9.6 million. I wouldn’t be surprised if this suffers a similarly unimpressive fate and fails to reach double digits out of the gate.
Burnt opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million
For my Our Brand Is Crisis prediction, click here:
In her first live action role since her Oscar nominated turn in box office bonanza Gravity, Sandra Bullock headlines the comedic drama and political pic Our Brand Is Crisis, out next weekend. Supporting players include Billy Bob Thornton, Anthony Mackie, Joaquim de Almeida, and Ann Dowd. From the producers of Argo (Grant Heslov and Bullock’s Gravity costar George Clooney) and director David Gordon Green, Crisis was once looked at as a potential awards contender until it screened at the film festival circuit. Its mixed reviews put it at just 40% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Even Bullock’s legitimate star power may not save this from being a mediocre performer. Political movies are a tough sell generally, especially without critics praising it. Only positive buzz could turn this into a hit and it’s just not there. I believe Crisis may struggle to reach double digits and disappear rather quickly.
Our Brand Is Crisis opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
We’ve arrived at my second round of Oscar predictions in the category of Best Actor and like Best Actress yesterday, there’s only been one change since my initial predictions in early September.
It’s Don Cheadle’s work in Miles Ahead that has been omitted and this is for two reasons: it got mixed reviews on the film fest circuit and it’s likely been pushed back to 2016. Taking his place: Johnny Depp’s work as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, which has earned the star some of the best reviews of his career.
The remaining four: Michael Caine in Youth, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant, Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs, and last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl.
I believe Caine could be the most vulnerable of the group and there’s a number of actors that could swoop in and replace him. That list now appears to be topped by Will Smith in Concussion or Matt Damon in The Martian, which has skyrocketed to critical acclaim and terrific box office numbers since my first predictions.
As for now, not a lot has changed here but we’ll see if that remains when my third round is released in November.
TODD’S BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS (OCTOBER EDITION)
Michael Caine, Youth
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Bradley Cooper, Burnt
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
Will Smith, Concussion
Best Director and Best Picture predictions for the second time around will be up on the blog soon!
It’s onto part 3 of my second round of Oscar predictions and Best Actress is on the docket. Between my previous posts covering the Supporting Actor and Actress races, I changed half of those ten predictions from my initial round in late August and early September.
For Actress, only one prediction has changed and that was because Alicia Vikander’s role in The Danish Girl (predicted here weeks ago) has been switched by its studio to Supporting. The four previous predicted women – Cate Blanchett in Carol, Jennifer Lawrence in Joy, Carey Mulligan for Suffragette and Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn remain.
The newcomer could also be the current front runner. Brie Larson’s performance in Room has been earning raves and her nomination is virtually assured. Blanchett is actually competing with herself as her lead role in Truth could get in instead of her work in Carol.
More than any other race, this one has remained the most consistent and we shall see if that remains when my third round of predictions is revealed in November. Tomorrow: Best Actor.
This evening on the blog, we continue forward with my second round of predictions (October edition) for Oscar nominees in the six major categories. Yesterday it was Supporting Actress and now we’re onto Supporting Actor. Since my initial round of predictions over a month and a half ago, much has changed.
In fact, only two of my predicted five nominees from that original prognostication post made the cut this time around: Tom Hardy in The Revenant and Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies.
Gone are Bradley Cooper in David O. Russell’s Joy and I’ve substituted him for his supporting costar Robert De Niro. It’s worth noting that Russell’s last three films resulted in Supporting nods for Christian Bale in The Fighter (who won), De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Cooper in American Hustle. In other words, Russell’s actors get nominated.
Also out are Harvey Keitel in Youth and Kurt Russell for The Hateful Eight, though both remain possibilities. Word around Hollywood is that Samuel L. Jackson is the standout male performance in Hateful Eight, though it’s unclear at this juncture whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting.
Joining the fray are Michael Keaton for Spotlight (whose nomination seems the most assured at this juncture) and Benicio del Toro for his acclaimed role in Sicario.
Other possibilities are plentiful, including Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight. If that were to occur and Keaton got recognized as well, it’d be the first time in 24 years that two actors from the same picture were nominated in this category. That was Bugsy when both Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley got nods.
This is a very fluid category, as evidenced by the major changes I’ve made since early September and we’ll see if it continues along its unpredictable path when my third round of predictions comes in November.
TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)
Tonight we begin my second round of Oscar predictions in the six top categories and it begins with Best Supporting Actress. Since my initial round of estimates, the list of possible nominees in this race has been diminished greatly – from 24 names to just 10 that I see as real possibilities.
Three of my original five nominees remain: Jennifer Jason Leigh in Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight, Rooney Mara in Todd Haynes’s Carol, and Kate Winslet in Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs. We also have the inclusion of Alicia Vikander in Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl. Originally I predicted her in the Actress race but it’s since become clear that her studio will make their campaign in this category. As for another earlier predicted nominee, Elizabeth Olsen in I Saw the Light – that pic has since been met with mostly poor reviews and just got pushed to 2016.
So who’s our fifth? Names being bandied about include Rachel McAdams in Spotlight, Jane Fonda in Youth, Julie Walters in Brooklyn (who I predicted last time), Elizabeth Banks in Love and Mercy, and Diane Ladd in Joy (there’s not much buzz yet for her, but director David O. Russell’s last three films have resulted in four nominations in this category). Yet for now I’ll go with Joan Allen in Room, the upcoming indie pic that is getting raves from critics and film festival crowds. We’ll see how much changes when my third round comes in November and I’ll have Supporting Actor up tomorrow.
TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)
It’s an extremely busy weekend at the box office as five new titles open up: the wide release of the acclaimed Steve Jobs, Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, sixth franchise entry Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, Bill Murray comedy Rock the Kasbah, and 80s cartoon live-action adaptation Jem and the Holograms. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
With the quintet of newbies premiering, it’s creating some real unpredictability as to what will come out on top, especially considering the fact that current champ Goosebumps could see a minimal decline in its second weekend due to the Halloween frame.
I’m going with Steve Jobs and its hot Oscar buzz coming out on top, but it could certainly debut a little lower than my estimate with meager drop-offs in subsequent weekends. The Last Witch Hunter could certainly over perform, though it appears unlikely Paranormal Activity has any shot at the top of the charts due to its lower theater count (my individual post on it explains further). Kasbah and Jem seem likely for single digit debuts outside the top five.
As for other holdovers, look for Bridge of Spies to have the tiniest decline of all unless Goosebumps holds up even better than my forecast. Guillermo del Toro’s Crimson Peak is likely to have the worst sophomore decline after its lackluster opening.
And with that, on a supremely unpredictable weekend, my estimates for the top ten:
Steve Jobs
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
2. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 25%)
3. The Last Witch Hunter
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million
4. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)
6. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
7. Rock the Kasbah
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
8. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
9. Crimson Peak
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 53%)
10. Jem and the Holograms
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
Box Office Results (October 16-18)
Kid friendly Goosebumps managed to knock The Martian off its two week perch on top as it grossed a solid $23.6 million, beyond my $19.4M projection. As mentioned, this should hold up well in weekend #2.
The Martian slipped to second with $21.3 million, a bit under my $24.6M forecast for a terrific three week total of $143M.
Landing in third was Steven Spielberg’s acclaimed Bridge of Spies, posting an OK $15.3 million (compared to my $21.2M estimate). The good news is that Spies should perform well throughout the fall with its own Academy Award buzz going for it.
Crimson Peak flopped in fourth place with just $13.1 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. This one more or less got lost in the shuffle and represents a disappointment for director Guillermo del Toro.
Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $12.6 million, lower than my $16M projection and its total is at $136M.
Languishing in sixth is the bomb Pan with $5.8 million in its second weekend (I said $6.8M). Its embarrassing two week haul is at $25M.
Finally, faith based football drama Woodlawn debuted in ninth (as I predicted) with $4 million, right in line with my $4.3M estimate.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
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