2020 Oscar Predictions: February 21st Edition

It’s a good week for News of the World and Minari and not so much for The Father with my latest Oscar prediction updates. News is back in my estimated nine Picture nominees and that drops The Father out. Da 5 Bloods is clinging ever so slightly to the nine spot with Judas and the Black Messiah, The Father, and Sound of Metal hot on its heels.

In Director, I’m replacing Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) over Florian Zeller (The Father). In Supporting Actress, Helena Zengel’s Globes/SAG nominated turn in News of the World makes the final cut replacing Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm).

And there’s a new #1 in Actress with Carey Mulligan nabbing the pole position over Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.

You can read about all the movement below! And on a side note, I will have winner predictions for the Golden Globes (airing February 28) up later this week.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

6. Minari (PR: 6)

7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

8. News of the World (PR: 11)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

11. The Father (PR: 8)

12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

13. Soul (PR: 13)

14. First Cow (PR: 14)

15. Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)

7. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)

2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)

8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)

9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)

5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)

7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)

8. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)

7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)

8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)

8. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 7)

9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)

10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. Minari (PR: 4)

5. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 5)

9. Soul (PR: 8)

10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

4. The Father (PR: 3)

5. First Cow (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 7)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)

9. Emma (PR: 10)

10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hillbilly Elegy

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)

8. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)

9. Demon Slayer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Trolls World Tour

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Time (PR: 2)

2. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 1)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

4. Boys State (PR: 4)

5. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Collective (PR: 6)

7. Crip Camp (PR: 5)

8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)

9. 76 Days (PR: 9)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. A Sun (PR: 3)

4. Two of Us (PR: 4)

5. Collective (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)

7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 8)

8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 9)

9. La Llorona (PR: 7)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Minari (PR: 5)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

7. Tenet (PR: 6)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 3)

3. Emma (PR: 2)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

8. The Glorias (PR: 8)

9. News of the World (PR: 9)

10. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 7)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Father (PR: 4)

7. Tenet (PR: 6)

8. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Emma (PR: 5)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pinocchio (PR: 6)

7. The Glorias (PR: 7)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

9. The Little Things (PR: 10)

10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Minari (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 5)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

8. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

10. Ammonite (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Life Ahead 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)

7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 10)

8. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: 9)

9. “Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)

10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Emma (PR: 2)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 5)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

7. Tenet (PR: 7)

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)

9. Mulan (PR: 9)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Tenet (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. News of the World (PR: 5)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

8. Soul (PR: 6)

9. Greyhound (PR: 9)

10. Mulan (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Da 5 Bloods

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

5. Mulan (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Soul (PR: 7)

7. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)

8. The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)

9. Love and Monsters (PR: 9)

10. Bloodshot (PR: 10)

That works out to these pictures grabbing these numbers in term of nominations:

13 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World

6 Nominations

Minari, Nomadland

5 Nominations

One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods

3 Nominations

Emma, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

Another Round, Boys State, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, First Cow, The Life Ahead, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Welcome to Chechnya, Wolfwalkers

Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar Review

The heights of Kristin Wiig and Annie Mumolo’s writing partnership has been airborne for a decade now. In their 2011 collaboration Bridesmaids (which was Wiig’s deserved breakout on the big screen), the funniest scene of many took place on a plane with the bridal party trying and failing to get to Vegas. That thwarted flight was uproariously due to the lead’s drunken exploits. Wiig and Mumolo’s teaming ten years later in Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar again provides my favorite highlight above the clouds.

Wiig is Star and Mumolo is Barb. They are Nebraskan BFF’s recently fired from their jobs and looking to shake things up. When they decide that a Florida trip is the way to do it, their discussion on the flight involves them inventing a superstar woman named Trish. The dialogue proves the following: just like their characters, Wiig and Mumolo can create seemingly improvised silliness that is downright hilarious. Their emotional investment in the fictitious Trish is a sight to behold.

The best moments here are throwaway lines and conversations that could have worked just as well with Barb and Star as characters on Saturday Night Live doing a Weekend Update bit. Is that enough to satisfactorily fill two hours? Not really, but you can’t help but praise the leads/co-writers for trying.

Barb and Star is far more of a dumb comedy than Bridesmaids and I don’t mean that in a bad way. The tone is pure farce and there’s unexpected musical performances that interrupt the absurdity. We have Jamie Dornan showing a different shade of his personality from his Christian Grey persona (he gets perhaps the most memorable singing assignment). Wiig gets to pull double duty as a villainess with an aversion to sunlight. Her grand plan involves destroying Vista Del Mar and unleashing deadly mosquitoes on the town’s populace (think Austin Powers levels of scheming). Dornan is her lover/henchman sent to do some of the dirty work. When he meets the sweet and naive Midwestern besties, the possibilities of a throuple get real and then real complicated.

It seems irrelevant to spend much word space delving into the plot – which is incidental. Barb and Star works or doesn’t based on how much you believe this premise can be stretched. I have to be frank. I’m not referring to the franks that our two heroines put in their soup during Talking Club, which is Nebraska’s version of ladies night and is run with military precision by its leader (Vanessa Bayer). The film sort of runs out of steam (not the steam emanating from said franks) about midway through by my meter. The inventive Trish talk, the hot dog soup, and the dawning of the Dornan dalliances are all first half occurrences. I do give the script some props for being so gleefully bizarre. Wiig and Mumolo’s second effort is destined to become a cult classic and I imagine Barb and Star Halloween costumes (love those culottes) this fall. I could never quite fully escape the feeling that it might have worked better as shorter sketches on the program that made Wiig a star before Star.

**1/2 (out of four)

2020 Oscar Predictions: February 15th Edition

We are now precisely one month away from nominations in this elongated Oscar season! The big development from last week was the release of shortlists in six categories covering feature length titles: Documentary Feature, International Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, and Visual Effects. That’s why you’ll see significant changes in those races particularly…

Yet that’s not all as I’ve swapped out some performers and movies in five top tier competitions.

  • In Best Picture, Promising Young Woman is in my estimated nine and that takes out News of the World
  • The fifth slot for Best Actress now goes to Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday and this drops Sophia Loren for The Life Ahead
  • For the first time, I’m listing Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) in Supporting Actress. That means Ellen Burstyn (who’s missed SAG and Globe nods) is on the outside looking in
  • The screenplay races both have alterations with Never Rarely Sometimes Always in Original Screenplay (over Da 5 Bloods) and First Cow back in Adapted over I’m Thinking of Ending Things

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

6. Minari (PR: 8)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. The Father (PR: 7)

9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

11. News of the World (PR: 9)

12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

13. Soul (PR: 13)

14. First Cow (PR: 14)

15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 5)

8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)

9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Kate Winslet, Ammonite

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)

5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)

7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)

5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)

8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

7. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 6)

8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)

10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

4. Minari (PR: 4)

5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

8. Soul (PR: 7)

9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. First Cow (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)

7. News of the World (PR: 6)

8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)

10. Emma (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)

8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)

10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Demon Slayer

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)

2. Time (PR: 1)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

4. Boys State (PR: 7)

5. Crip Camp (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Collective (PR: 9)

7. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)

9. 76 Days (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Dissident

Totally Under Control

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. A Sun (PR: 5)

4. Two of Us (PR: 4)

5. Collective (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

7. La Llorona (PR: 9)

8. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)

9. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Notturno

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Nomadland (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Minari (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Emma (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

8. The Glorias (PR: 9)

9. News of the World (PR: 7)

10. Ammonite (PR: 10)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 4)

4. The Father (PR: 3)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 8)

7. News of the World (PR: 5)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Minari

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)

5. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Little Things (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

The Trial of the Chicago 7

News of the World

Mulan

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Tenet (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Minari (PR: 8)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hillbilly Elegy

The Little Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

5. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 9)

7. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 7)

9. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon

“Only the Young” from Miss Americana

“Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Emma (PR: 3)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

5. News of the World (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

7. Tenet (PR: 10)

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

9. Mulan (PR: 5)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Father

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Tenet (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soul (PR: 6)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. Greyhound (PR: 8)

10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 9)

4. Mulan (PR: 5)

5. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Soul (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Love and Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bloodshot (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Invisible Man

Greyhound

Wonder Woman 1984

Sonic the Hedgehog

The Call of the Wild 

That shakes out to these films getting these numbers in terms of nods:

13 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Minari, News of the World

3 Nominations

Emma, Promising Young Woman, Tenet

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul, Sound of Metal, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Collective, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, First Cow, The Life Ahead, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers

The Little Things Review

John Lee Hancock’s The Little Things was apparently written in 1993 and there is indeed a retro vibe. This feels like it could have been in a VHS case taking up a whole shelf at Blockbuster. It might have starred Denzel Washington back then. Not everything has changed. Nearly three decades later, however, you can stream it away without having to remember to rewind.

Set in 1990, someone is killing young women in Los Angeles and those investigating haven’t moved past square one. Joe Deacon (played by Washington) is a former LAPD detective now doing deputy grunt work north of the city. When he has to make a trip to the City of Angels, he discovers the spree could be related to an unsolved series of killings that he never cracked. Newcomer Jimmy Baxter (Rami Malek) is heading up the current investigation. For reasons never quite spelled out, he’s more than eager to allow Deacon to become his off the books partner. It’s hinted at early on that Deacon’s previous work left him unwelcome in the force and that lurks over the two hour plus runtime.

Their pairing leads to some dead ends until they happen upon Albert Sparma (Jared Leto), who seemingly fits the profile of the perp. Problem is, the aggressively weird suspect might just have a jones for the attention. He’s a true crime buff who appears thrilled sitting in the interrogation room with the iconic one way mirror. Deacon and Jimmy are the cats trying to catch this potential killer with the mousy hair for most of the second half. With Leto portraying him, he gives the character his bizarre all that is pretty humorous and compulsively watchable.

So many of these procedurals pose the question of whether all this grisly work by the detectives is worth the emotional strain it causes. In The Little Things, the answer is murkier and that provides some slightly intriguing twists. I don’t want to give it too much credit, but every little bit helps and so does the involvement of three Oscar winners.

Comparisons to Seven (basically the standard bearer of these types) are inevitable and there’s even a car ride with the killer (?) bearing the promise of a case cracking discovery. The Little Things is often boxed in with familiar story beats and some head into credibility straining territory. Isn’t that what most of those 90s era VHS selections did though? Perhaps I’m being too kind and I don’t envision rewinding Things anytime soon. Yet even with its flaws, Hancock’s delve into this genre is a reasonably rewarding throwback.

*** (out of four)

2020 Oscars Shortlist Analysis

Taylor Swift will not be performing an Oscar nominated track at this April’s ceremony. Sonic the Hedgehog will not be the Oscar nominated Sonic the Hedgehog. Sacha Baron Cohen’s makeup team from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm who transformed him into former President Donald Trump will not see their work recognized.

These are some of the headlines from today’s unveiling of shortlists in six categories covering feature films from the Academy. On the positive side for its respective studios, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey could contend in at least three races. A documentary about refugees from Chechnya is a Visual Effects hopeful. And Borat is still on the board for his song “Wuhan Flu”. There were mixed results from the announcements for features such as Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, and The United States vs. Billie Holiday.

Let’s break this all down and what it means for my weekly predictions, shall we?

Best Documentary Feature

Fifteen films were shortlisted today as follows:

76 Days

All In: The Fight for Democracy

Boys State

Collective

Crip Camp

Dick Johnson Is Dead

Gunda

MLK/FBI

The Mole Agent

My Octopus Teacher

Notturno

The Painter and the Thief

Time

The Truffle Hunters

Welcome to Chechnya

Analysis: 

There are two docs I had in my top ten that missed the cut: The Dissident, which I had ranked all the way up in second and Totally Under Control, which I had sixth. This is a pretty open race in 2020 and I had Time in first position two days ago. All In and Dick Johnson are sturdy contenders as well.

Best International Feature Film

Fifteen films were shortlisted today as follows:

Another Round

Better Days

Charlatan

Collective

Dear Comrades!

Hope

I’m No Longer Here

La Llorona

The Man Who Sold His Skin

The Mole Agent

Night of the Kings

Quo Vadis, Aida?

A Sun

Sun Children

Two of Us

Analysis:

My only top ten hopeful falling out was my #10 Notturno (which made the Documentary list). No real surprises with Another Round as a soft frontrunner to win.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Ten films were shortlisted as follows:

Birds of Prey

Emma

The Glorias

Hillbilly Elegy

Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

The Little Things

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

One Night in Miami

Pinocchio

Analysis:

Two of my predicted nominees from my last round had their possibilities cease today: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The United States vs. Billie Holiday (ranked fourth and fifth respectively). Also dropped: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (#7), News of the World (#8), and Mulan (#9). Ma Rainey will probably remain in my #1 spot with Hillbilly and Mank following.

Best Original Score

Fifteen films were shortlisted as follows:

Ammonite

Blizzard of Souls

Da 5 Bloods

The Invisible Man

Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

The Life Ahead

The Little Things

Mank

The Midnight Sky

Minari

Mulan

News of the World

Soul

Tenet

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Analysis:

My #6 entry Hillbilly Elegy was a rather notable miss here while my other nine entries are still in the mix. This race could come down to Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor competing against themselves with Soul and Mank.

Best Original Song

Fifteen films were shortlisted as follows:

“Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy

“See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast

“Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

“Never Break” from Giving Voice

“Make It Work” from Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah

“Seen” from The Life Ahead

“Rain Song” from Minari

“Show Me Your Soul” from Mr. Soul!

“Loyal Brave True” from Mulan

“Free” from The One and Only Ivan

“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

“Green” from Sound of Metal

“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7

Analysis:

As mentioned, no Taylor Swift for her track “Only the Young” from Miss Americana. Yet a larger omission was “Over the Moon” from the animated Rocket to the Moon, which I had ranked at #4. Another to miss the cut: “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday, which achieved a Golden Globes nod. “Speak Now” might have an edge, but I wouldn’t count out “Seen”.

Best Visual Effects

Ten films were shortlisted as follows:

Birds of Prey

Bloodshot

Love and Monsters

Mank

The Midnight Sky

Mulan

The One and Only Ivan

Soul

Tenet

Welcome to Chechnya 

Analysis:

Some genuine shockers in VE with my #3 The Invisible Man and #4 Greyhound out of contention. Also missing: Wonder Woman 1984 (#7), Sonic the Hedgehog (#8), and The Call of the Wild (#10). In their places are pics I didn’t have on my radar like Bloodshot and Love and Monsters (the Chechnya nod was at least spoken of in recent days). Soul getting in certainly gives it a solid shot at inclusion, but Tenet and The Midnight Sky still appear to be the heavyweights.

Today’s news will certainly alter what you see when I update my estimates this weekend! Stay tuned…

2020 Oscar Predictions: February 7th Edition

It was a major week in terms of Oscar forecasting as the Golden Globe and SAG nominations were unveiled this week. You can read all about my reactions to both of those announcements right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/02/03/2020-golden-globes-nominations-reaction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/02/04/2020-sag-awards-nominations-reaction/

So… what’s changed? We start in Best Picture with Minari getting back into my estimated nine nominees with Judas and the Black Messiah dropping out. Truth be told, spots 6-11 in the BP derby seem to be constantly moving. Other prognosticators have taken Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods out of the mix after its Globes shutout, but I’m not there yet (especially after its SAG Ensemble nod).

However, I am replacing Spike Lee with Regina King in the Best Director race. In Best Actress, Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) gets the wide open 5 spot over Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie).

The other acting races remain the same as I’ve kept Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) in Supporting Actress despite her snubs from the Globes and SAG. I definitely toyed with including Helena Zengel (News of the World) over her (she was nominated for both) and that still could happen, but not this week.

Even more surprising was the Globe & SAG omissions of Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) in Best Actor. He’s still clinging to #5 in my predicted nominees. In Supporting Actor, everyone was rather shocked to see Jared Leto (The Little Things) make the list in this week’s nominations. He vaults up to #6 in my possibilities in his first initial ranking, but I still can’t pull the trigger on the Academy naming him.

This Tuesday marks another significant date as we march towards the March 15th nominations. The shortlists will be announced for the following races: Best Documentary Feature Film, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, and Visual Effects. You can count on those lists altering my estimates next weekend, as they always do.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. The Father (PR: 9)

8. Minari (PR: 10)

9. News of the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

13. Soul (PR: 13)

14. First Cow (PR: 14)

15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Malcolm & Marie

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)

9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)

9. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 8)

10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)

5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

9. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ben Affleck, The Way Back

John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)

5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)

7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)

8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)

10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)

9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)

10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

4. Minari (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

7. Soul (PR: 7)

8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 2)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

3. The Father (PR: 4)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 7)

7. First Cow (PR: 5)

8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Emma (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

French Exit

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)

8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)

10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Time (PR: 1)

2. The Dissident (PR: 2)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

4. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

5. Crip Camp (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Totally Under Control (PR: 4)

7. Boys State (PR: 6)

8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)

9. Collective (PR: 7)

10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)

4. Two of Us (PR: 8)

5. A Sun (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Collective (PR: 5)

7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)

8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 6)

9. La Llorona (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Notturno (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

My Little Sister

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

9. Minari (PR: 10)

10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

7. News of the World (PR: 7)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. The Glorias (PR: 10)

10. Ammonite (PR: 8)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 4)

4. Nomadland (PR: 3)

5. News of the World (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

8. Tenet (PR: 7)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)

10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Judas and the Black Messiah 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Mulan (PR: 7)

10. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pinocchio

The Prom

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Tenet (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

8. Minari (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

10. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 4)

5. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 7)

8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)

9. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)

10. “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

9. The Father (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Tenet (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 3)

3. Tenet (PR: 2)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soul (PR: 7)

7. News of the World (PR: 5)

8. Greyhound (PR: 8)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)

4. Greyhound (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

7. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)

8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)

9. Mank (PR: 9)

10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)

And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in nominations:

12 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, One Night in Miami

3 Nominations

Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Minari, Mulan, Tenet

2 Nominations

Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Life Ahead, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Night of the Kings, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers

Oscar Watch: Mass

One of the most buzzed about features that debuted at the Sundance Film Festival is Fran Kranz’s Mass, which tackles the issue of gun violence by placing the parents of a slain child with the parents of the shooter. That quartet of actors is made up of Jason Isaacs, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd, and Reed Birney. Writer/director Kranz, who you may know from his role in The Cabin in the Woods, makes his debut behind the camera.

Critics have indicated that it’s an impressive one. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 92% with particular praise going to the performers. Mass is seeking distribution and it should have no trouble finding it through a streamer or studio. An awards push is likely and it will be interesting to follow what category placements the actors are put into.

It’s also an open question as to whether this tricky subject matter will translate to possible nominations. Some reviews have pointed out that this is a tough watch, but a worthy one.

Bottom line: Mass, with the right handling, could be a picture we’re discussing a year from now in the 2021 awards season. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2020 SAG Awards Nominations Reaction

Jared Leto strikes again! Ellen Burstyn and Delroy Lindo are 0 for 2 with the Golden Globes and SAG! Minari and Da 5 Bloods get much needed boosts after a rough go at the Globes!

These are some of the headlines from this morning’s SAG Award nominations, which are traditionally a more accurate barometer on what the Academy might do when it comes to their unveilings (happening March 15).

As I did yesterday with the Globes, let’s break down each category, how I did, and what I think it all means.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 4/5

Minari needed a good showing here after receiving just one nod at Globes and it did so with SAG. It got in over my predicted Mank, which had a subpar performance today (more on that below). This could be where Trial ends up shining with a win, but it’s a strong competition this year.

Outstanding Performance by a Female in a Leading Role

Nominees: Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

How I Did: 4/5

The Davis/Kirby/McDormand/Mulligan bunching looks solid for the Academy’s eventual list. It’s the fifth spot that’s up for grabs and Adams got in over Zendaya (Malcom & Marie). Look for Adams, Zendaya, and potentially Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) to vie for it.

Outstanding Performance by a Male in a Leading Role

Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)

How I Did: 4/5

The headline here is Delroy Lindo’s work in Da 5 Bloods has been snubbed by the Globes and SAG and that certainly puts his Oscar chances in serious jeopardy. This is also another shot in the arm for Minari with Yeun making the cut over Lindo. At this juncture, Ahmed/Boseman/Hopkins/Oldman looking good for the Academy. Whether Lindo can rebound is the question.

Outstanding Performance by a Female in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Youn Yuh-jung (Minari), Helena Zengel (News of the World)

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch! If anything, this morning proved just how open this race is. The genuine surprise is Amanda Seyfried not being named for Mank. I believe she could win the Oscar (as could Close), so her omission is noticeable. It is worth mentioning that Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk missed here in 2018 and wound up taking gold with the Academy. I also didn’t have Yuh-jung or Zengel in favor of Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) and Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite). Burstyn has also been blanked with the Globes not honoring her yesterday. And Zengel has nabbed nods from both branches so her Oscar visibility is on the rise. This is also a boost for Bakalova.

Outstanding Performance by a Male in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)

How I Did: 4/5

Gotta start with Leto obviously. Yesterday, perhaps the most significant Globes shocker was Leto getting in. Today… SAG follows suit. So the possibility of his Oscar nomination is quite real. Leto gets in over my prediction of Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey. At this point, Baron Cohen/Boseman/Kaluuya/Odom Jr. should be in for Oscar with the fifth slot a head scratcher. It could be filled by performers who missed the Globes/SAG cut such as Paul Raci in Sound of Metal or Mark Rylance for The Trial of the Chicago 7. There’s also Globe nominee Bill Murray for On the Rocks. Or perhaps Mr. Leto keeps rolling…

Finally, I didn’t do predictions for the sixth category: Best Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. They are: Da 5 Bloods, Mulan, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Wonder Woman 1984. 

Today’s nominations give the following pictures these numbers in terms of nods:

3 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7

2 Nominations

The Father, Hillbilly Elegy, News of the World, One Night in Miami

1 Nomination

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Little Things, Mank, Mulan, Nomadland, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Wonder Woman 1984

You can expect updated Oscar estimates (which will certainly take these activities into account) on Sunday!

2020 Golden Globes Nominations Reaction

If you had told me yesterday that the Kate Hudson’s Music, which is directed by pop star Sia and hasn’t been released yet domestically, would achieve two Golden Globe nominations and that Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods would get zero, I might have said you’re crazy. Yet welcome to Awards Season 2020 as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association weighed in with their nods this morning and provided some genuine shockers (as they normally do).

There’s no doubt that the big loser today was Da 5 Bloods which was shut out while Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman performed better than expected. Much more to discuss so let’s break it down by each category, shall we?

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 3/5

It must be said that The Father had a good morning as well along with Promising. Those two pictures made it in over my predictions of Da 5 Bloods and One Night in Miami. I will note that some pundits had Mank missing the cut, but I’ve never fully bought that it won’t perform well during this awards season.

Best Director

Nominees: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)

How I Did: 4/5

Fennell’s inclusion here is the surest indication of HFPA’s love for her film. She makes it in over Spike Lee for Bloods. The HFPA did make some history in this race with 3 women nominated out of the five.

Best Actress – Drama

Nominees: Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

How I Did: 4/5

This pushes forward the narrative that Davis/Kirby/McDormand/Mulligan are a quartet likely to see SAG and Oscar nods. It’s been the fifth slot up for grabs and Andra Day got there over my prediction for Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. A GG nod could have helped Loren’s Oscar viability (let’s see if SAG mentions her tomorrow).

Best Actor – Drama

Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)

How I Did: 4/5

The 5 Bloods shutout produced the largest shocker in this particular category with Delroy Lindo being snubbed in favor of Tahar Rahim. Lindo should bounce back at SAG and we’ll know soon enough.

Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy

Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom

How I Did: 4/5

As previously stated, this Music pic came out of nowhere and stands as one of the enormous surprises. It got in over Emma. Others had On the Rocks in that spot and it whiffed too.

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy

Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Kate Hudson (Music), Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot), Anya Taylor-Joy (Emma)

How I Did: 3/5

Once again, Hudson’s name was certainly not expected. Pike’s inclusion is less surprising as I had her as my first alternate. They make the cut over Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs) and another unforeseen development… Meryl Streep (The Prom) not getting her expected nod. That doesn’t happen often.

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), James Corden (The Prom), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton), Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield), Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)

How I Did: 4/5

Not many pundits were guessing James Corden’s work in The Prom would be nominated and not his costar Meryl Streep. I had him off in favor of Leslie Odom, Jr. for Hamilton.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Helena Zengel (News of the World)

How I Did: 4/5

Zengel’s inclusion here increases her visibility and if she gets a SAG nomination, her Oscar chances become quite real. The young performer made it in over the legendary Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)

How I Did: 4/5

With the exception of that Kate Hudson movie, another morning jaw dropper was Jared Leto being recognized for The Little Things. Per another storyline of the day, he replaces Chadwick Boseman in the blanked Da 5 Bloods.

Best Film Screenplay

Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7

How I Did: 3/5

The Father and Promising Young Woman continued their encouraging runs here to the detriment of One Night in Miami and (again) Da 5 Bloods.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: The Croods: A New Age, Onward, Over the Moon, Soul, Wolfwalkers

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Behold the only race where I called it perfectly! Don’t be surprised if this is Oscar’s quintet as well.

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Another Round, La Llorona, The Life Ahead, Minari, Two of Us

How I Did: 3/5

Llorona and Two were named over Martin Eden and Quo Vadis, Aida? in a lineup that should come down to Round or (more likely) Minari.

Best Original Score

Nominees: Mank, The Midnight Sky, News of the World, Soul, Tenet

How I Did: 4/5

No big surprise that Midnight Sky got in over Minari. This could well by the Oscar lineup.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Seen” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami, “Tigress & Tweed” from The United State vs. Billie Holiday

How I Did: 2/5

An unpredictable group of songs for awards consideration proved to be just that with my worst performance of the day. It was “Fight”, “Voice” and “Tigress” in over “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest, “Only the Young” from Miss Americana, and “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon. 

How I Did Overall: 51/70

That shakes out to the following number of nods for these pictures:

6 Nominations

Mank

5 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

4 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman

3 Nominations

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, One Night in Miami

2 Nominations

Hamilton, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Mauritanian, Music, News of the World, Palm Springs, The Prom, Soul, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

Another Round, The Croods: A New Age, Emma, French Exit, Hillbilly Elegy, I Care a Lot, La Llorona, The Little Things, The Midnight Sky, Minari, On the Rocks, Onward, Over the Moon, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers

You can expect predictions in all these races a couple of days before showtime on February 28th!

Oscar Watch: Land

She’s had high profile career for over 30 years now with The Princess Bride, Forrest Gump, and Wonder Woman to name just three. Robin Wright has also won a Golden Globe for her streaming work on House of Cards, but she’s yet to get on the Academy’s radar. Her directorial debut Land just played at the Sundance Film Festival. Wright also stars as someone looking for the meaning of life in the wilderness (shades of Wild with Reese Witherspoon). Costars include Demian Bichir and Kim Dickens.

Critical reaction is of the mixed variety with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 63%. Land is eligible for the 2020 Oscar season since the Academy expanded the calendar. The pic lands in theaters on February 12th. However, any talk of this being a late entry making waves is pretty much finished with the so-so reviews.

Bottom line: don’t make space for Land in your predictions. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…