Rebecca Hall is known for her many performances including Vicky Cristina Barcelona, The Town, Iron Man 3, and The Gift, among others. At this year’s Sundance Film Festival, she’s made her directorial debut with Passing. Based on a 1929 novel by Nella Larsen, the drama pairs Tessa Thompson and Ruth Negga as mixed race friends navigating the tensions of the times. Costars include Andre Holland, Alexander Skarsgard, and Bill Camp.
Early critical reaction includes some raves with particular attention to the work of its leads. The Rotten Tomatoes score currently sits at 79%. Based on the buzz, there’s little question that Passing will score a streaming or studio pickup in short order. It’s also likely that whoever distributes this will mount an awards campaign.
What that will look like is in question. Some reviews have singled out Negga’s performance, who nabbed a Best Actress nomination in 2016 for Loving. It is feasible that both Thompson and Negga could both be campaigned for in the lead race, but a shift to Negga in Supporting Actress could increase the chance for exposure.
The current reviews indicate this could be a long shot for Best Picture or Director consideration. However, a well constructed push by its distributor may change that dynamic. Bottom line: Passing is worth keeping an eye on in 2021 and especially with Negga. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My weekly Oscar predictions brings us to an important frame ahead as the Golden Globe nominations will be revealed on Wednesday with the SAG nods coming Thursday! When I update my estimates next weekend, don’t be surprised if those unveilings change the narrative of the overall picture here. If you missed my predictions for the Globes and SAG, you can find them here:
As for now, I’m dwindling the list back down from 10 to 9 in the Best Picture derby and just on the outside looking in is Minari. For some context, I feel pretty confident that the top 6 films in my BP guesstimates make the cut. Anything between 7-12… not so much and I expect these titles to likely shift around as we get closer to nomination time.
In Supporting Actor, the fifth slot goes back to Mark Rylance for The Trial of the Chicago 7 over Paul Raci in Sound of Metal. In Adapted Screenplay, Nomadland has now lost the top spot to One Night in Miami.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have reaction to the Globe and SAG picks up this week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. The Father (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Minari (PR: 9)
11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 8)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)
10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 10)
10. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)
9. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Malcolm & Marie
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. French Exit (PR: 10)
10. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 2)
2. The Dissident (PR: 4)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 7)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Welcome to Chechnya
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. A Sun (PR: 4)
4. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
5. Collective (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dear Comrades! (PR: 6)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
8. Two of Us (PR: 9)
9. My Little Sister (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. Minari (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Glorias (PR: 9)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Tenet (PR: 7)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 4)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. Mulan (PR: 6)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
8. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)
9. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 5)
8. Mulan (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Greyhound (PR: 10)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
4. Greyhound (PR: 4)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 5)
7. Mulan (PR: 6)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Mank (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
This equates to these films garnering these numbers for nods:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
News of the World
4 Nominations
One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Emma, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Soul, Tenet
1 Nomination
Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, First Cow, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Mulan, Night of the Kings, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers
Now onto SAG! As a friendly reminder, the Screen Actors Guild do not have a Best Picture category in the traditional sense as they instead honor the best ensemble. In other words, pictures with smaller casts have a tougher time making the final cut.
Here’s how I have it shaking out later this week!
Best Film Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Alternate – Minari
2nd Alternate – Nomadland
Best Film Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
1st Alternate – Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
2nd Alternate – Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Best Film Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
1st Alternate – Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
2nd Alternate – Steven Yeun – Minari
Best Film Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
1st Alternate – Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
2nd Alternate – Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Best Film Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
1st Alternate – Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
2nd Alternate – Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
This equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:
4 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Mank
2 Nominations
The Father, One Night in Miami, Pieces of a Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
1 Nomination
Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, Malcolm & Marie, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal
I’ll have my reaction up to the nominations on Thursday!
The biggest Oscar precursor thus far drops their nominations this Wednesday (with SAG following the next day) in a week where the awards picture should become a bit clearer.
Of course, The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has a habit of making some left field picks from time to time. And unlike the Academy, they split their film and lead acting races into Drama and Comedy/Musical.
Every week on the blog, I have been forecasting each Oscar race. However, for the Globes, it’s just one post with my final predictions for what I feel will happen on Wednesday. In every category, I’m also selecting a first and second alternate. We shall see how I do shortly!
P.S. – SAG Predictions are up tomorrow! Let’s get to it…
Best Film Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Second Alternate – The Father
Best Film Director
Predicted Nominees:
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
First Alternate – Florian Zeller, The Father
Second Alternate – Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Best Actress – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
First Alternate – Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Second Alternate – Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Best Actor – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
First Alternate – Steven Yeun, Minari
Second Alternate – Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Film Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Emma
Hamilton
Palm Springs
The Prom
First Alternate – On the Rocks
Second Alternate – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
First Alternate – Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Second Alternate – Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
First Alternate – Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island
Second Alternate – James Corden, The Prom
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
First Alternate – Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Second Alternate – Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
First Alternate – Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Second Alternate – Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – The Father
Second Alternate – Promising Young Woman
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
First Alternate – The Willoughbys
Second Alternate – Earwig and the Witch
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Another Round
The Life Ahead
Martin Eden
Minari
Quo Vadis, Aida?
First Alternate – Dear Comrades!
Second Alternate – Beanpole
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Tenet
First Alternate – Hillbilly Elegy
Second Alternate – The Midnight Sky
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Only the Young” from Miss Americana
“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
First Alternate – “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
Second Alternate – “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
And that breaks out to the following pictures receiving these numbers for nominations:
6 Nominations
Mank
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3 Nominations
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, The Life Ahead, Minari, Palm Springs
2 Nominations
Emma, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, The Prom, Soul
1 Nomination
Another Round, The Croods: A New Age, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, French Exit, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, Martin Eden, The Mauritanian, Miss Americana, News of the World, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Promising Young Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Wolfwalkers
I’ll have reaction to the Globe nods up on Wednesday!
**There’s really no proper to review Run without some spoilers, so consider yourself warned.**
Cinematic logic dictates that no matter carefully the villain in a thriller strives to cover up their crimes, they will save a newspaper article in a fairly convenient location that exposes their vicious deeds. Same goes for opened mail that was meant for someone else. These time tested cliches are in Aneesh Chaganty’s Hulu pic Run, the director’s follow-up to his well regarded Searching from 2018. And there are additional moments in the efficient 89 minutes of screen time that are straight out of its Genre 101.
That said, Run has some things going for it. We open with Diane Sherman (Sarah Paulson) giving birth prematurely to her daughter whose survival in question. Flash forward 17 years later and Chloe (Kiera Allen, making her film debut) is alive, but in a wheelchair and experiencing various other illnesses. It’s time for the homeschooled teen to eagerly leave the nest for college which Mom appears cool with. Not so fast.
It takes little time for the screenplay to establish that a Munchausen by proxy situation could be happening. For those who haven’t consulted their medical journals lately, the question is whether Diane is purposely keeping her actually health child sick and confining her to their Washington farmhouse. The casting of Paulson, known for playing whackos, is a solid clue.
Run is elevated by its lead performances. We know what to expect from its known actress and Paulson plays this Mommie Dearest to the hilt. However, it’s Allen who shines. Chloe is certainly a character to be pitied, but she’s also much smarter and resourceful than your average daughter in distress.
As mentioned, the mechanisms of the storyline do cover familiar ground as Chloe tries to wheel or (maybe) walk far away from this matriarchal mayhem. Diane would have been wise to invest in a paper shredder as she tries to cut off Chloe’s access to the outside world. Yet Run earns points with a genuinely strong and sympathetic heroine and a final twist that confirms she is still a step ahead of her captor.
It’s taken all of 24 hours for the 2021 Sundance Film Festival to produce a potential awards contender for the next season (as we’re in the midst of the current one). This should be no surprise as the annual Utah event typically produces such hopefuls. Last year, the fest gave us a trio of pics that could end up in the 2020 Best Picture lineup (The Father, Minari, Promising Young Woman).
CODA comes from writer/director Sian Heder and it’s a remake of the 2014 French dramedy La Famille Belier. 18-year-old Emilia Jones stars as the only hearing member of her deaf family that runs a fishing business. Costars include Marlee Matlin, Troy Kotsur, and Eugenio Derbez. The opening night selection of Sundance suggests this is a major crowd pleaser that should have no trouble getting snatched up by a studio or streamer (and probably at a nice price). The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 100% based on 20 reviews.
When it comes to Sundance, it always feels too early that discern whether praise will result in Oscar attention over a year later. That said, early signs here are encouraging and especially for Jones. Critics have deemed this a star making performance and she’s certainly worth keeping an eye on as the long next awards guesstimating period officially kicks off. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
***Update (01/30/21): Apple has acquired CODA for a record setting $25 million. This is the first genuine 2021 hopeful, folks!
Crime thriller The Little Things hits theaters and HBO Max on Friday and it boasts a trio of Oscar winners with Denzel Washington, Rami Malek, and Jared Leto. John Lee Hancock (maker of The Blind Side and Saving Mr. Banks) switches up genres as critics are comparing this most often to David Fincher’s Seven. In fact, many reviews say this a throwback to mid-budget features of that decade (which pretty much makes it appointment viewing for yours truly).
That said, early reaction is most certainly mixed as this stands at just 49% on Rotten Tomatoes. Despite the cast boasting their Academy wins, this does not appear to be an awards contender at all. There could be one caveat. Composer Thomas Newman has been nominated 15 times for an Oscar and has yet to win. Warner Bros. has mounted a campaign for him, but I’d be surprised if #16 surfaces here.
Bottom line: Little has no things going for it in terms of Academy attention. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The National Board of Review bestowed their end of year honors today and the unpredictable group showed some love for Netflix… just not in the expected way. The NBR named Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods as Best Film along with Lee taking their top filmmaking prize. Bloods, which premiered on Netflix this summer, has been seen as a prospect whose Best Picture chances are questionable. In my rankings, it has risen over recent weeks all the way up to #5.
As for its chances to win, one could legitimately argue the NBR win means it probably won’t (and it probably won’t). In the 21st century, only 4 of the 20 NBR victors took Best Picture at the big show and only one in the past decade (2003’s Mystic River, 2007’s No Country for Old Men, 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2018’s Green Book).
The NBR also names 10 of their other favorite pics and they are: First Cow, The Forty-Year-Old Version, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Soul, and Sound of Metal. The major surprise here is easily Netflix’s The Midnight Sky from George Clooney. It received very mixed reviews and is not anticipated to play with the Academy except for tech races. The other story here is the omission of three legit Netflix contenders at the Oscars: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. In particular, Chicago is seen as the main competitor to Nomadland for BP winner. That said, only 6 of the 11 NBR pics last year nabbed Oscar attention. Two other notable exclusions from the Board are The Father and One Night in Miami.
In the acting races, Riz Ahmed took Best Actor for Sound of Metal. He’s looked at as a likely Academy contender. Similar to the Picture discussion, only 1 NBR recipient here (Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea) achieved Oscar glory. Carey Mulligan named Best Actress for Promising Young Woman. The Oscar/NBR connection is slightly better as three of the past 10 trophy takers had good fortune with the Academy. The Sound of Metal love continued in Supporting Actor with Paul Raci winning. Like Actress, it’s a 3 out of 10 match in the 2010s. Youn Yuh-jung is NBR’s Supporting Actress choice for Minari. Only 1 of the last 10 victors for the Board won the Oscar (Regina King in 2018’s If Beale Street Could Talk). Minari also took Original Screenplay with News of the World winning Adapted. Soul, the front runner for the Oscar, was named Best Animated Feature.
Bottom line: the NBR can certainly increase exposure for hopefuls, but it’s certainly not a barometer for who wins at the Oscars. Nevertheless it’s a nice day for a Netflix feature that I currently have behind three others from the streamer that weren’t named here.
I’m sad to report that Palmer starring Justin Timberlake does not feature the pop superstar playing 1980s “Addicted to Love” crooner Robert Palmer (that would be pretty sweet). Instead the drama (streaming on Apple TV this Friday) casts JT as a former felon caring for a young boy. Fisher Stevens directs with a supporting cast featuring Juno Temple, Ryder Allen, Alisha Wainwright, and June Squibb.
As of late, Timberlake has mostly focused on his music efforts. His acting credits in recent years has primarily consisted of voice work in the Trolls franchise. Some critics have praised his performance here, but the 56% Rotten Tomatoes score indicates this won’t be an awards contender.
Bottom line: Palmer doesn’t have the look of a late breaking Academy hopeful and it should be easy for voters to simply resist it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The American Film Institute will announce their top 10 pictures of the year tomorrow and it’s usually a safe predictor of half or more of the films that will land Best Picture nods at the Oscars. Over the past five years, the magic number has been 7 of the AFI selections getting Oscar love in the big race. That holds true for 2016, 2017, and 2019. In 2015 – it was 6. In 2018- it was 5.
So where do we stand this year? My overall estimates keep the estimated AFI number at 7 for my current Best Picture hopefuls (which could and probably will change). It is worth noting that for the previous two years, there’s a bit of an asterisk. Being that it’s the American Film Institute, foreign selections are ineligible. Due to this, surefire Oscar contenders Roma and Parasite didn’t qualify. This would apply in 2020 to The Father which is a British production.
As for the matches, they are as follows: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, and The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Now for the differences. AFI has shown a Disney love recently that the Academy did not share. AFI nominated Inside Out, Zootopia, and Mary Poppins Returns over the last five years with Oscar not following suit. Therefore I’m saying Pixar’s Soul makes the AFI cut.
The other two are critical favorites that (at press time) I have just missing Oscar’s cut: Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal. This means the three pics I have getting Oscar’s attention and not from AFI are Da 5 Bloods, The Father, and Judas and the Black Messiah.
What else could surprise? I would not be shocked to see Borat Subsequent Moviefilm make AFI’s list. If they don’t choose that comedy, there’s a lesser chance that Palm Springs could show up. AFI has also selected some blockbusters that Oscar ignored as of late. Examples include Knives Out, A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. However, due to COVID in 2020, there’s just not a huge list of those types of contenders. Could Tenet sneak in? Doubtful.
Others that could be sleepers are First Cow, Pieces of a Woman, Malcolm & Marie, and Hillbilly Elegy, but here’s my take on what AFI does tomorrow:
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