Category: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: The Swimmers

Sally El Hosaini’s The Swimmers got the plum slot of opening the Toronto Film Festival a week ago prior to its November 23rd Netflix streaming bow. An Oscar qualifying theatrical run will precede that. Based on the true story of Syrian refugee sisters hoping for Olympic gold, real life siblings Nathalie and Manal Issa star alongside Ahmed Malek, Matthias Schweighofer, and Ali Suliman.

The Toronto buzz was mixed with a 60% Rotten Tomatoes score. I don’t see this generating a wave of support for awards consideration. Many reviews say this is more successful in its depiction of the refugee experience than as a sports drama. I would second that as I attended the opening night gala in Canada. I don’t envision this contending in any race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Jazzman’s Blues

Tyler Perry puts away that Madea smock for a love story spanning four decades in A Jazzman’s Blues, which streams on Netflix beginning September 23rd. The writer/director’s latest premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a cast of relative unknowns including Joshua Boone, Amirah Vann, Solea Pfeiffer, and Ryan Eggold.

Early critical reaction is mostly appreciative of Perry’s effort. The current Rotten Tomatoes score is 80%. This doesn’t, however, appear to be his bid at awards kudos. The reviews are less raves and more claims that it’s serviceable. Don’t look for this to play with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Ticket to Paradise

These posts about the awards viability of many pictures might be called “Oscar Predictions”. Sometimes it’s more of a Golden Globe predictions centered type of thing. That’s the case with Ticket to Paradise. The rom com has heavy star wattage with George Clooney and Julia Roberts as a divorced couple trying to prevent the pending nuptials of their daughter (Kaitlyn Dever). Ol Parker, who last made Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, directs. Costars include Maxime Bouttier, Billie Lourd, and Lucas Bravo.

Paradise is out in many parts of Europe next week before its October 21st domestic booking. Many reviews are out and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 67%. Academy attention is a non-starter. However, I do wonder if The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will take a look at Clooney or Roberts in the lead races in Musical/Comedy at the Globes. It remains to be seen how competitive those competitions are for 2022.

If the Globes want some big celebs in the mix as they return to the airwaves next year, you could do a lot worse. It’s just as possible that won’t happen, but I wouldn’t count it out. My Oscar (or Globe) Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Lost King

Focused on the 2012 discovery of King Richard III’s remains, dramedy The Lost King premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its October 7th UK release. Domestic distribution is still undetermined. Stephen Frears directs a cast led by Sally Hawkins, Steve Coogan (who cowrote the script with Jeff Pope), and Harry Lloyd.

Critics are mixed on King and it stands at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes. I never really figured this as an Academy contender, but thought the Globes could take notice in the Musical/Comedy races if it garnered enough praise. It’s not out of the question that Hawkins could find her way into the Globes Actress derby if competition is light. It’s also (perhaps more) likely that this is ignored altogether. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Moonage Daydream

Exploring the world of the late David Bowie through previously unreleased sounds and visions, Moonage Daydream hits various IMAX theaters this Friday. Directed by Brett Morgen, the domestic release follows screenings at Cannes and Toronto.

Morgen is no stranger to Academy attention though it’s been a bit. His 1999 On the Ropes was nominated as best feature in the documentary race. Various follow-ups have been high profile including The Kid Stays in the Picture (2002), Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck (2015), and Jane (2017). In particular, Jane (focused on primatologist Jane Goodall) was expected to make the Academy’s final cut, but didn’t.

Daydream is receiving plenty of raves with a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score. Yet musical docs often face a tough road to make the doc quintet and that could apply here. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Menu

Mark Mylod’s The Menu is receiving mostly positive orders after premiering in Toronto before its November 18th domestic release. Will awards voters find it appetizing? The black comedy stars Anya Taylor-Joy, Nicholas Hoult, Ralph Fiennes, Hong Chau, Janet McTeer, Judith Light, and John Leguizamo.

The Searchlight Pictures release stands at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes with plenty of critics praising the screenplay. Perhaps the original script from Seth Reiss and Will Tracy could contend. Fiennes, in particular, is being singled out and a Supporting Actor nod is potentially in the mix.

Yet I suspect the Palme d’or winning Ruben Ostlund’s Triangle of Sadness, with its similar subject matter, might achieve Academy attention instead of this. There could be room for both, but I’m uncertain. Where The Menu could make a play is at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy Best Picture derby. That’s also where Taylor-Joy may surface in Best Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: My Policeman

Harry Styles, Emma Corrin, and David Dawson headline the 1950s set romantic drama My Policeman, which has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 4th debut on Amazon Prime. An October 21st awards qualifying run is also slated. Michael Grandage directs the adaptation of the 2012 novel by Bethan Roberts. Costars include Linus Roache, Gina McKee, and Rupert Everett as the older versions of the aforementioned stars.

The tale of forbidden love is getting most of its ink due to Styles playing a homosexual policeman. Yet early reviews are quite mixed on the effectiveness of his performance (Corrin is being called best in show). The Rotten Tomatoes meter for the film itself is a mere 47%.

Unless it gets a random Costume Design or Production Design nod (which I doubt), we can likely discount My Policeman to get on the blotter of awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Good Nurse

The Good Nurse from director Tobias Lindholm boasts a pair of Oscar winners leading the cast in Jessica Chastain (our reigning Best Actress for The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Eddie Redmayne (who took leading actor gold for The Theory of Everything in 2015). The true life medical thriller has premiered at Toronto before its Netflix steaming bow in late October (a limited awards qualifying run will precede it). Costars include Nnamdi Asomugha, Noah Emmerich, and Kim Dickens.

Early reviews run from decent to above that and the Rotten Tomatoes score stands initially at 100%. I went to the premiere screening last night and can confirm it’s rock solid. However, Netflix would really need to campaign hard for this to attract Academy love.

My gut says Chastain, having won just last year, will miss out due to an already healthy Actress field. If its distributing streamer slots Redmayne in Supporting Actor for his creepy role (an argument could be made), he could warrant similar buzz to Jared Leto in The Little Things. Let’s not forget, however, that Leto’s Supporting Actor inclusion never ultimately materialized. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Inspection

Basing his directorial debut on his own experiences, Elegance Bratton has premiered The Inspection at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 18th domestic release. The A24 title features Jeremy Pope as a Marine at boot camp whose homosexuality is revealed. Costars include Raul Castillo, McCaul Lombardi, Bokeem Woodbine, and Gabrielle Union.

Reviews out of Canada are looking good for the most part and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 87%. Yet I’m doubtful this could play in Best Picture or for Bratton’s original screenplay. On the other hand, many critics are calling this a star making performance from Pope. He’s a recent Emmy nominee for the Netflix miniseries Hollywood (he’s also received Tony and Grammy nods for his stage work).

The studio will need to really push Pope for any hope of making the final five. Some of the those slots – Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Hugh Jackman (The Son) – may already be spoken for. It remains The Inspection‘s most realistic hope. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

The critics certainly don’t have their knives out for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. This is the eagerly awaited follow-up to Rian Johnson’s 2019 comedic murder mystery which grossed over $300 million worldwide and gave Daniel Craig another franchise. Johnson and Craig are back with a new supporting cast that includes Edward Norton, Janelle Monae, Kathryn Hahn, Leslie Odom Jr., Jessicas Henwick, Madelyn Cline, Kate Hudson, and Dave Bautista.

Slated for select cinemas in November before a December 23rd Netflix bow, Onion has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with reviews saying it’s quite appealing. Some even claim it improves on the original. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

Three years ago, Knives had a sliver of hope to nab a Best Picture nomination, but it never materialized. An Original Screenplay mention was the reward for its success. This time around, it would contend in Adapted Screenplay since it’s based on existing IP. That could happen though let’s see how competitive that race is over the remainder of the year. I suspect if we see a sequel nominated for Best Picture in 2022, it’ll be Top Gun: Maverick and not this… and we still don’t know how solid Avatar: The Way of Water is. As for performances, Monae is being singled out in several write-ups as the MVP. However, Supporting Actress is already starting to looked stacked.

Where Onion could sizzle is at the Golden Globes with a Musical/Comedy Best Motion Picture nod and Best Actor in that category for Craig. That occurred in 2019 and could happen again. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…