Premiering this weekend at the South by Southwest Film Festival, John Krasinski’s horror pic AQuietPlace is making a considerable amount of noise. Described as a near silent genre exercise in which monsters attack you if you make a sound, Place is impressing fest goers and critics alike. The pic sits at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The director stars alongside his real life wife Emily Blunt and Noah Jupe and Millicent Simmonds playing their children.
Slated to open stateside on April 6, early reviews suggest Place could be a monster hit at the box office. By the way, 2018 is shaping up to be a banner year for Blunt with this and MaryPoppinsReturns debuting on Christmas.
Horror movies generally don’t make their way to consideration for Oscar voters, but GetOut proved an exception in 2017. Could AQuietPlace follow suit? Even with the strong critical notices, it’s doubtful. Blunt is getting raves for her work here, but I suspect she may receive even more attention for Poppins. Two races where Quiet could factor in? The Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories. Even though the picture is said to be set at library tone decibels, its intermittent use of sound might impress voters in those technical categories.
Well, the 90th Annual Academy Awards have come and – after 220 minutes of ceremony – gone. This is my annual wrap up of the show and (of course most importantly) how I did with my predictions!
In short, not too shabby…
I went 19/21 on my predictions – missing out on just Best Original Song (“Remember Me” from Coco won over my upset pick “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall and A Fantastic Woman took Foreign Film over The Insult). Neither were a surprise.
In fact, the night was rather predictable as far as winners. The Shape of Water was the big victor, taking Picture, Director (Guillermo del Toro), Production Design, and Original Score. The acting winners (Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Allison Janney in I, Tonya) were the wise ones to have in the pool. Get Out got its recognition via Jordan Peele’s Original Screenplay. Legends like James Ivory (for his Call Me by Your Name Adapted Screenplay) and cinematographer Roger Deakins (for his Blade Runner 2049 work) finally won gold statues.
Some other quick observations:
Jimmy Kimmel, as he was last year, is a solid host for the show. I would have no problem with him essentially being the new Billy Crystal and hosting every year or every other year. That said, it sure would be interesting to see what a Tiffany Haddish or Dave Chappelle could do with it.
That 90 years in movies Oscar montage could have gone on another half hour and I would have been fine with it.
I hope the Phantom Thread costume designer is enjoying his jet ski today.
And, of course, no Best Picture screw up! Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway can relax today.
And there you have it, folks! That’s my shape of Oscar 2017.
In 2016, the directorial debut of Garth Davis was Lion and it earned an impressive six Oscar nominations. His follow-up is an ambitious one – Biblical drama MaryMagdalene. The film casts previous nominees Rooney Mara in the title role with Joaquin Phoenix portraying Jesus.
Anything featuring this director, the subject matter, and the leads is bound to lead to Oscar curiosity. Yet buzz out today strongly suggests otherwise. Reviews have been rather weak with one major trade publication deeming it a sophomore slump.
While Phoenix has been singled out for his performance, he is far more likely to garner a nod for other pictures he’s got in the 2018 hopper. They are Don’tWorry, HeWon’tGetFaronFoot and YouWereNeverReallyHere and they’ve already been covered on the blog.
Besides the unimpressed critical reaction, there are other issues. While Magdalene is scheduled to roll out internationally in various countries in the coming days and weeks, it’s U.S. distribution is uncertain. The pic was originally scheduled for release from the beleaguered Weinstein Company and is currently without a release date.
There is one possible exception to its Academy chances. The film is composed by Johann Johannson, a previous nominee for TheTheoryofEverything and Sicario. Mr. Johannson died unexpectedly on February 9 and there could perhaps be a push to honor him posthumously.
Bottom line: don’t look for MaryMagdalene to have any real impact come Oscar time next year.
Well… here we are. After months of prognosticating and speculating, the 90th Annual Academy Awards is upon us this Sunday. This post serves as my final predictions for what and who will emerge victorious in five days.
I am listing my predicted winner as well as my runner-up in case I’m not perfect… and I certainly won’t be. I’ll have reaction up Sunday night as to how I did and my general thoughts on the ceremony.
Until then – these are my FINAL Oscar Winner predictions:
Best Picture
Nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Best Actor
Nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
PREDICTED WINNER: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Best Actress
Nominees:
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
PREDICTED WINNER: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
RUNNER-UP: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
PREDICTED WINTER: Call Me by Your Name
RUNNER-UP: Molly’s Game
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Get Out
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
PREDICTED WINNER: Coco
RUNNER-UP: Loving Vincent
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
PREDICTED WINNER: The Insult
RUNNER-UP: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
PREDICTED WINNER: Icarus
RUNNER-UP: Last Men in Aleppo
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
PREDICTED WINNER: Phantom Thread
RUNNER-UP: The Shape of Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
PREDICTED WINNER: Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Wonder
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Editing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Blade Runner 2049
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me” from Coco
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
PREDICTED WINNER: “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
RUNNER-UP: “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
And that leaves the following breakdown of number of wins for each picture:
4 Wins
The Shape of Water
3 Wins
Dunkirk
2 Wins
Darkest Hour, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Blade Runner 2049
1 Win
I, Tonya, Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Coco, The Insult, Icarus, Phantom Thread, Marshall
Alex Garland’s Annihilation hits theaters tomorrow and the science fiction thriller has been subject to some glowing reviews. It stands at 88% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The film is the follow-up to director Garland’s 2015 debut Ex Machina, which nabbed two Oscar nominations. Machina won for Visual Effects (which was a bit of a surprise) and got a nod for Original Screenplay.
Annihilation is based on a novel and would compete in Adapted Screenplay. It’s unlikely this would compete for the big prizes like Picture, Director, or any of the acting races. Visual Effects could be a different story as critics have taken notice of that aspect of its production. Like Machina, it could find itself a contender in that category.
That said, distributor Paramount doesn’t seem very confident with Annihilation. That’s despite the positive critical reaction. The picture appears unlikely to make much noise at the box office and one wonders if the studio will push it for awards consideration at all. With the February release date, it’s possible Oscar voters will have simply forgotten Garland’s sophomore effort come voting time. Time will tell.
It’s been four years since Wes Anderson’s TheGrandBudapestHotel garnered a host of Oscar nominations. His follow-up is the stop-motion animated comedic adventure IsleofDogs, which hits theaters stateside in March and has made its debut at the Berlin Film Festival. The pic (say its name out loud and pick up on its apparent affection for canines) features a whole bunch of familiar faces providing voice work including Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Bill Murray, Greta Gerwig, Scarlett Johansson, Jeff Goldblum, Frances McDormand, Ken Watanabe, Tilda Swinton, Bob Balaban, Courtney B. Vance, Harvey Keitel, Liev Schrieber, and F. Murray Abraham.
Reaction overseas to Anderson’s latest is that he’s delivered another winner. That likely means Dogs will follow in the steps of the director’s FantasticMr. Fox, which was nominated for Best Animated Feature by the Academy. It ultimately lost to Pixar’s Up and that powerhouse studio has TheIncredibles2 on deck this year. Additionally, it could be a factor for Mr. Anderson in Original Screenplay.
Yes, it’s early but it could already be a safe assumption that the Dogs will be on display come nomination time next year.
For much of 2017, there was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s true life terrorism pic The15:17toParis could become a late entry into the Oscar race. It didn’t materialize and it was slated for an opening this Friday. I found it a bit curious that the review embargo didn’t lift until two days prior to its debut.
We may now know why. Early critical reaction to Paris has been rather negative. The film casts the three real life heroes (Spencer Stone, Anthony Sadler, Alek Skarlatos) who thwarted a 2015 French train attack alongside more familiar faces including Jenna Fischer, Judy Greer, and Tony Hale.
Eastwood has, of course, been no stranger to Oscar glory with 1992’s Unforgiven and 2004’s MillionDollarBaby both winning Best Picture and Director. In the 21st century, MysticRiver, LettersfromIwoJima, and AmericanSniper were nominated. His projects often merit Academy chatter and this one did until now.
The15:17toParis seems destined for zero awards attention. That also means Jaleel White (TV’s Urkel who from “Family Matters” appears) will not receive his first Oscar nomination.
The drumbeat began sounding loudly within recent weeks and today’s critical reaction to Marvel’s Black Panther is deafening. The Ryan Coogler directed superhero pic (out next Friday) with Chadwick Boseman in the title role sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 50 reviews thus far.
As you may have noticed, it’s only February. Prognosticating the movies that may get honored for next year’s Oscars is a tricky proposition at best. Yet Black Panther is worth the speculation for a variety of reasons. When it comes to drumbeats, there’s been a ramp up that a comic book adaptation (which have dominated the box office charts all century) has to get Best Picture notice soon. Ten years ago, The Dark Knight came close. In 2016, Deadpool emerged as a late contender. Last year, the same applied for Wonder Woman. And 2017’s Logan is the first superhero flick to get a Screenplay nod. None were nominated for the big prize.
It’s unknown what will transpire over the next year before the next Oscar nominations come out, but I feel confident with this prediction: Panther will be in the mix and not on the back burner for discussion. Already it appears that it will be one of the most critically acclaimed titles in its genre and it will almost certainly become a box office juggernaut.
If Panther manages a Picture nod, the love could extend to director Coogler and its Adapted Screenplay. The film seems to be a decent bet for a variety of tech nods, including Visual Effects, the Sound categories, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
Bottom line: the acclaim for Panther is here and may not go away come Academy voting time.
Last night, the Directors Guild of America bestowed their honors in film and television categories. It’s a night where Oscar prognosticators like myself take notice.
Why? In the 21st century, the DGA recipient for Outstanding Achievement in Feature Film has matched the Oscar winner for Best Director 14 out of 17 times. That’s a pretty remarkable predictor. And there was no upset yesterday with Guillermo del Toro getting the prize for TheShapeofWater. Mr. del Toro can add this trophy to his Golden Globe and various others.
The DGA solidifies del Toro’s status as the person to beat at the big show. At this point, it’s tough to imagine anyone else taking it. Additionally, the movie associated with the DGA winner has won Best Picture twelve of seventeen times since 2000. This also allows Shape a front runner status in that race.
Will it change? We’ll know one month from today when the Academy Awards airs.
A surprise addition to this year’s Sundance Film Festival slate was a screening of Tully, the latest comedic drama from director Jason Reitman. The pic focuses on motherhood with the title character being played by Charlize Theron. It also marks Reitman’s third collaboration with writer Diablo Cody. The first – 2007’s Juno – received a host of Oscar nods. The second – 2011’s Young Adult – received no significant awards attention despite some solid reviews.
Early notices are positive and particularly praising of Theron’s work and the supporting performance of Mackenzie Davis as a nanny helping the frazzled Theron. Tully comes out stateside in April and that could be a hindrance to its Oscar potential. Voters will have to recall the work of the aforementioned actresses from months ago. If it hits at the box office, that could certainly help.
Bottom line: Tully could be a factor in both Actress and Supporting Actress, but time will tell.
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