Category: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Watch: First Reformed

Paul Schrader’s First Reformed premiered at the Venice Film Festival last fall and it opens domestically in limited fashion tomorrow. The drama casts Ethan Hawke as a pastor grieving the death of his son in Iraq who becomes politically active in various matters. Costars include Amanda Seyfried and Cedric the Entertainer (who goes by Cedric Kyles in this particular case). Reviews out of Italy were encouraging and as more critical notices have come out in recent days, the picture now stands at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Schrader has had a decades long career that includes serving as screenwriter for classics like Martin Scorsese’s Taxi Driver and Raging Bull and directing features including American Gigolo, Light Sleeper, and Affliction. Based on the buzz prior to its release tomorrow, Reformed stands as one of the filmmaker’s most acclaimed works.

Could Academy voters take notice? Distributor A24 certainly has it work cut out to keep it fresh in the minds of voters later this year. That said, praise has been effusive for Mr. Hawke and the studio could mount a strong campaign for him. If so, it would mark the actor’s second nomination after receiving a Supporting Actor nod in 2001 for Training Day.

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Oscar Watch: BlacKkKlansman

It’s been almost 30 years since the Academy suffered a bit of backlash when Spike Lee’s Do the Right Thing missed the cut of Best Picture nominees. Since then, the writer/director has had critical hits and misses and none of his joints have managed to score a nod for the top prize (including 1992’s acclaimed Malcolm X).

That could finally change as his latest, BlacKkKlansman, was unleashed today at the Cannes Film Festival. It tells the true and amazing story of an African-American cop in the 1970s who infiltrated a chapter of the Ku Klux Klan. John David Washington (son of Lee’s frequent star Denzel) plays the role with a supporting cast that includes Adam Driver, Laura Harrier, Corey Hawkins, Paul Walter Hauser, Harry Belafonte, and Topher Grace as David Duke. Blumhouse Productions (the studio behind last year’s Get Out) distributes with its director Jordan Peele as a producer. The film opens stateside this August.

Early buzz from the French Riviera indicates this is Lee’s strongest, most mainstream, and entertaining and timely movie in some time. It seems destined to receive plenty of attention later this summer.

Could that translate to a Best Picture nomination and one for Lee’s direction? The Cannes attention raises that prospect considerably. As for performances, Washington is getting very positive writeups. The same applies to Driver (playing Washington’s partner) and Grace as the former KKK head. Either one of them could see strong campaigns mounted in Supporting Actor. If I had to guess right now, Blumhouse might focus more on Driver.

Bottom line: BlacKkKlansman was one of the festival’s most eagerly awaited pictures and its unveiling today could lead to months long Oscar chatter.

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Oscar Watch: The Wife

Glenn Close is a six-time Academy Award nominated actress who has yet to bring home the gold. Last fall, her drama The Wife premiered to solid reviews at the Toronto Film Festival (it’s at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). The pic is from Swedish director Björn Runge and it stars Close as a the long cheated on spouse of a prominent writer who reaches a breaking point. Jonathan Pryce and Christian Slater costar.

While critics had positive things to say about the film itself, reviews were over the moon as to Close’s performance. Her Oscar losses include three in Supporting Actress (The World According to Garp, The Big Chill, The Natural) and the same number in Lead (Fatal Attraction, Dangerous Liaisons, Albert Nobbs).

The buzz last fall from up north bodes very well for her another nomination. The Wife is scheduled for U.S. distribution on August 3.

Bottom line: Glenn Close could well be on her way to a seventh trip down the red carpet, but whether she snags the prize this time remains to be seen.

Oscar Watch: RBG

After a sizzling limited release last weekend, documentary RBG rolls out in more theaters this weekend. From directors Betsy West and Julie Cohen, the pic tells the story of United States Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg. It premiered at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year to wide acclaim and currently sits at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes.

So far in 2018, RBG seems to be the highest profile film of its genre released to date. Will the documentary branch of the Academy notice? It’s certainly a major possibility as this should be right up their alley. That said, the Oscar voters in this race can be unpredictable. Just last year, another doc about a well-known female trailblazer Jane (as in Goodall) was considered a possibility to win at one point. It ended up not being nominated.

Bottom line? You never know with the voters, but RBG already has a solid closing argument for inclusion.

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Oscar Watch – Avengers: Infinity War

This weekend is all about Avengers: Infinity War at the box office as it barrels toward a potentially record-setting debut. The film looks, at the least, poised to set the all-time opening weekend record for the Marvel Cinematic Universe. This is the 19th picture in the MCU as the multi-billion dollar franchise is about to hit its ten-year anniversary. 

Infinity will certainly make its mark financially, but could Academy voters take notice? In short – probably not. The pic stands at 85% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a bit below the original Avengers from 2012 (92%) and a bit above 2015 sequel Age of Ultron (75%). No MCU title or any comic book adaptation has managed a Best Picture nomination and I see no reason to think this will.

Having said that, the Marvel folks stand their best opportunity yet to score a nod in the biggest category of them all. And that would be Black Panther, which was released in February. It stands a real shot. Looking through the Oscar history with this franchise, The Avengers scored a Best Visual Effects nomination in 2012 and lost to Life of Pi. No nominations were given to Ultron.

Bottom line: Infinity War could find itself in the mix for Visual Effects and possibly even the Sound categories. Yet any real MCU love from voters will go to King T’Challa.

Oscar Watch: Disobedience

The forbidden love tale Disobedience debuts stateside in limited release tomorrow and it’s got some glowing reviews on its side. The romantic drama comes from director Sebastian Lelio, whose last picture was the Oscar winner for Foreign Language Film, A Fantastic Woman. It casts Rachel Weisz and Rachel McAdams as lovers whose relationship is dangerous in their Orthodox Jewish setting.

Disobedience originally was screened last fall at the Toronto Film Festival and buzz was strong. The current Rotten Tomatoes score is 95%. The two leads (as well as costar Alessandro Nivola) have garnered acclaim for their work. Weisz is a previous winner in 2005 as Supporting Actress for The Constant Gardner. Weisz was nominated in the same category in 2015 for Spotlight.

Distributor Bleecker Street will likely need to mount an exuberant campaign for the film to be remembered come nomination time. However, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the two Rachel’s could be in the mix (probably with Weisz in Lead and McAdams in Supporting).

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Oscar Watch: Come Sunday

Joshua Marston’s Come Sunday premiered on Netflix over the weekend after first being screened at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year. The pic casts Chiwetel Ejiofor as real life bishop Carlton Pearson, who was deemed a heretic for his beliefs. Costars include Danny Glover, Martin Sheen, Jason Segel, Lakeith Stanfield, and Condola Rashad. Director Marston is most known for his acclaimed 2004 feature Maria Full of Grace.

Critical reaction for Sunday has been mixed and it currently stands at 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. Considering the Academy’s curiosity on how to even handle Netflix premieres, this was at best a long shot for recognition for Picture. The rather lukewarm reviews only solidify that.

That said, most critics have raved about Ejiofor, who would be going for his second nod following 2013’s 12 Years a Slave. Some notices have gone as far to say it’s his finest performance. Yet the likelihood is that come nomination time, any buzz will have waned for Ejiofor and he won’t be attending the Oscars for his work here on that particular Sunday.

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Oscar Watch: Hereditary

Two months ago, the supernatural horror flick Hereditary debuted at the Sundance Film Festival and it made quite an impression. Reaction from Utah (where this was also shot) has indicated it’s a genre exercise that truly is a frightening experience and it sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes currently. The film marks the directorial debut of Ari Asher with a cast led by Toni Collette and costarring Gabriel Byrne, Alex Wolff, Milly Shapiro, and Ann Dowd.

As we know, horror pics face an uphill battle for any Academy recognition and that could certainly be the case here. That said, the buzz for this is getting louder as it debuts stateside on June 8. Critics have particularly taken notice of Collette, saying her performance is masterful. If she manages a nomination for Actress, it would be her second Oscar nod. She was recognized nearly 20 years ago in Supporting Actress for another genre piece, The Sixth Sense. Collette is not the only actress generating some buzz in this category as Emily Blunt could garner attention for this April’s A Quiet Place.

Bottom line: even with its sterling critical reaction, Hereditary could be a long shot for attention. Collette, on the other hand, could be worth keeping an eye on.

 

Oscar Watch: Final Portrait

Premiering across the pond at the Berlin Film Festival in February and debuting stateside at the South by Southwest shindig days ago, Stanley Tucci’s fifth directorial effort Final Portrait comes out in limited release this Friday. The film centers on the relationship of famed Swiss artist Alberto Giacometti (Geoffrey Rush) and American writer James Lord (Armie Hammer).

It’s been a decade since actor Tucci has been behind the camera. His debut effort Big Night from 1996 was his biggest critical and commercial success. Portrait has been met with solid reviews and it currently holds a 79% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

That said, any potential Oscar attention would likely focus on its performers. Rush had a big 1996 as well, winning Best Actor for Shine. He’s been nominated three times since. This is said to be one of his most impressive performances in recent years. Hammer probably just missed out on a nod for last year’s Call Me by Your Name and would be vying for his first recognition.

My take right now is that Portrait could be forgotten come nomination time. The early date and good but now fawning critical reaction could serve as roadblocks for Rush’s fifth go round and Hammer’s first.

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Oscar Watch: Ready Player One

Perhaps the most high-profile title to screen at the South by Southwest Film Festival over the weekend was Steven Spielberg’s Ready Player One. The sci-fi action spectacle is based on Ernest Cline’s 2011 bestseller that’s chock full of pop culture references. In the lead up to its stateside release on March 29, advance word of mouth has been mixed. However, the screening yesterday may have changed those perceptions. Early reviews are calling this Spielberg’s biggest crowd pleaser in quite some time. The festival only gives us a small sampling of critical reaction, but it is certainly encouraging.

Even if the pic turns out to be a box office success, that doesn’t necessarily translate to any awards love (especially considering the genre). I don’t see this as a factor in the big races like Picture or Director. That said, Ready appears primed to be a player in one particular category and that’s Visual Effects. It’s said to be a feast for the eyes and though competition could be fierce, a nomination in that race seems quite feasible. Other tech categories such as Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Production Design could also be on table.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…