The Critics Choice Awards aired last night and the ceremony has been a harbinger at times for the Oscar race ahead. Notably the show in 2017 ended up matching the Academy’s winners in all major races. So what message did reviewers send yesterday? Well some of it was mixed and some of it solidified certain selections in their positions come gold statue time.
It was a very good evening for Roma. The Mexican drama won Best Picture and its filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron won for his direction and cinematography. In those latter two races, Cuaron is the strong favorite to take the Oscar. Picture is still not assured as it faces competition from AStarIsBorn and maybe BlacKkKlansman (which did go home empty-handed yesterday). I’ve had Star placed at #1 consistently in my Oscar rankings. Don’t be surprised if Roma grabs that slot this week when I update my predictions.
Christian Bale was victorious in Actor for Vice. Coupled with his Golden Globe win the week prior, it could give him a slight edge over Bradley Cooper in Star and Rami Malek for BohemianRhapsody. Yet it’s competitive.
So is Best Actress and last night proved it. There was the rare tie and it was between Lady Gaga in Star and Glenn Close as TheWife. I’d say it’s a coin flip between them at the Oscars and I wouldn’t totally count out Olivia Colman in TheFavourite.
The supporting winners matched the Golden Globes with Mahershala Ali (GreenBook) and Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk). Even though King was surprisingly not nominated at the upcoming SAG Awards, both actors look like front-runners in their respective categories.
BealeStreet also took Adapted Screenplay, giving it a boost in that race over the slightly more favored BlacKkKlansman. In Original Screenplay, Paul Schrader notched a big win for FirstReformed. I’m feeling more confident it makes the final five for the Academy.
The Critics Choice voters also chose Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse over Pixar’s Incredibles2 in Animated Film like the Globes did. That’s more fuel to the fire that Spidey could get that Oscar win and give Pixar a rare loss in that race.
Finally, BlackPanther had a solid showing – winning Visual Effects, Production Design, and Costume Design. FirstMan took Editing while Vice was honored for its Makeup.
I’ll have my updates Oscar predictions up later this week with final estimates up on Sunday prior to Tuesday’s announcement. Stay tuned!
One week ago, we had a Golden Globes surprise when AStarIsBorn had an unexpectedly bad night. The Freddie Mercury biopic BohemianRhapsody was a hit with the Hollywood Foreign Press and that was much to the detriment of Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut. Rhapsody took Best Picture (Drama) and Rami Malek won Actor in the drama category over Cooper. Furthermore, it was Glenn Close winning Actress for TheWife over Lady Gaga. The only race Star won was Best Original Song for the Cooper/Gaga duet “Shallow”.
The next question is obvious: do the Globe snubs hurt Oscar chances? The quick answer: perhaps not. It’s worth noting that in this decade, the Best Picture Drama recipient from the Globes has matched the Best Picture Academy winner three out of eight times (Argo, 12YearsaSlave, Moonlight).
I have had Star ranked as my #1 choice in my weekly forecasts for Oscar nominees since I started doing it in late August. It’s never changed. That said, it’s always been a soft front-runner. I do not think Bohemian will win the Oscar for Best Picture. It’s only in recent days that I’ve come to believe it’ll definitely be nominated.
The brightest challenger, in my view, is Roma. Alfonso Cuaron won the Globe for his direction over Cooper. I believe he is looking solid for the Oscar victory. One thing to keep an eye on this evening is the Critics Choice Awards. They matched the Oscar in every major category last year. If Star has another sub par evening there, look for even more chatter about its prospects dimming.
For the moment, the Globes could prove to be an anomaly for the film’s possibilities with the Academy. However, it’s well worth monitoring how these other precursors play out.
The Director’s Guild of America is a reliable guide as to who the Academy may nominate come Oscar time. The consistency in the DGA selections has been remarkable over the last five years. In that time, the DGA’s picks match the Academy’s selections at a ratio of 4/5 every single year. And their picks definitely mean a whole lot as to whether the filmmaker’s movie will get a Best Picture nod.
Today the DGA unveiled their five directors nominated and they are:
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Let’s begin with the Best Picture race. Looking over the films made by each director that’s been nominated for the past five years, all 20 of them went on to receive a Best Picture nod. Bottom line: all five of the movies listed above appear to be locks in the 5-10 pictures that will be honored.
In my view – Cooper, Cuaron, and Lee are virtual certainties for inclusion in the Academy’s directing race. When I made my latest round of weekly Oscar predictions last Thursday, I did not have Farrelly or McKay in. Instead, I went with Ryan Coogler for Black Panther and Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite.
That forecast runs contrary to the 4/5 ratio that we’ve witnessed for the last half decade. That means adjustments might be made in my next estimates this Thursday. I’m starting to think Farrelly may have a better shot at this juncture than McKay. Of Lanthimos and Cooper being the odd DGA man out who gets in the Oscar pool, that’s an awfully close call and I’ll probably debate that until post time.
The DGA, if history proves true, provided us with five movies that are in the Oscar race. As for the final five for Director, that’s in question. However, it’s probably wise to think four of them get in.
A few weeks ago, I posted look backs at major categories at the Oscars from 1990 to the present. I’ve covered all four acting races and if you missed it, you can peruse them here:
In each post, I review what I’d classify as the three least surprising winners, as well as the three biggest upsets. And I select what I believe are the strongest and weakest overall fields.
Today on the blog, we arrive at the Big Daddy – Best Picture. It’s important to remember that hindsight doesn’t come into play here. For instance, ForrestGump won the top prize in 1994. Since then, many believe fellow nominees PulpFiction or TheShawshankRedemption should have won. Yet the Gump victory was not an upset at the time. Same goes for 1990 when DanceswithWolves bested GoodFellas.
Let’s begin with a reminder of each winner since 1990:
1990 – DanceswithWolves
1991 – TheSilenceoftheLambs
1992 – Unforgiven
1993 – Schindler’sList
1994 – ForrestGump
1995 – Braveheart
1996 – TheEnglishPatient
1997 – Titanic
1998 – ShakespeareinLove
1999 – AmericanBeauty
2000 – Gladiator
2001 – ABeautifulMind
2002 – Chicago
2003 – LordoftheRings: ReturnoftheKing
2004 – MillionDollarBaby
2005 – Crash
2006 – TheDeparted
2007 – NoCountryforOldMen
2008 – SlumdogMillionaire
2009 – TheHurtLocker
2010 – TheKing’sSpeech
2011 – TheArtist
2012 – Argo
2013 – 12YearsaSlave
2014 – Birdman
2015 – Spotlight
2016 – Moonlight
2017 – TheShapeofWater
We start with my three least surprising winners:
3. LordoftheRings: ReturnoftheKing (2003)
Peter Jackson’s final entry in the acclaimed trilogy seemed due for a win after the first two installments were nominated, but lost to ABeautifulMind and Chicago. This was as much a recognition for the entire franchise and by 2003, it was obvious the Academy would move in that direction.
2. Titanic (1997)
James Cameron’s epic was plagued with rumors of a troubled shoot and the possibility seemed real that it could be a costly flop. The opposite occurred as Titanic became the highest grossing motion picture of all time upon its release. It seemed clear that Oscar love would follow.
1. Schindler’sList (1993)
Capping an amazing year which saw Steven Spielberg direct JurassicPark over the summer, his Holocaust feature Schindler’sList became the undeniable front-runner at its end of year release. Winning all significant precursors, this was a shoo-in selection.
Now to the upsets. In my view, there were four very real ones and I had to leave one out. That would be 1995 when Braveheart emerged victorious over the favored Apollo13 and SenseandSensibility. Yet there’s 3 others that I feel top it.
3. Moonlight (2016)
LaLaLand appeared ready to pick up the gold after its filmmaker Damien Chazelle and lead actress Emma Stone had already won. And it looked like the script was being followed when Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway actually announced the musical as Best Picture. Perhaps Oscar’s largest controversy followed as the wrong envelope was given and the Barry Jenkins effort Moonlight had actually won. Correct envelopes or not, the Moonlight victory was still unexpected given the La La momentum.
2. ShakespeareinLove (1998)
All eyes were on Spielberg’s World War II epic SavingPrivateRyan to win as Spielberg had already picked up his second statue for directing. Shakespeare rewrote that script and few saw it coming.
1. Crash (2005)
Here is perhaps the most surprising BP winner in history. Ang Lee’s BrokebackMountain was the strong favorite when the Paul Haggis race relations drama took it. Even presenter Jack Nicholson looked shocked when he read the envelope.
And now the fields. That’s a bit tough because just under a decade ago, the Academy switched from five finite nominees to anywhere between five and ten (nine being the most common). For weakest, I’m going with 2011 when there were 9. While there’s some quality picks like TheArtist, TheDescendants, Hugo, MidnightinParis, Moneyball, and TheTreeofLife – I feel even some of them might have missed the cut in stronger years. And I think that certainly applies to ExtremelyLoud&IncrediblyClose, TheHelp, and WarHorse.
For strongest, I will go with the aforementioned 1994. PulpFiction and Shawshank are indeed two of the most impressive cinematic contributions in recent times. Winner Gump and other nominees QuizShow and FourWeddingsandaFuneral filled out the slate.
And that does it, folks! Hope you enjoyed my look back at Best Picture in modern times.
The National Society of Film Critics bestowed their best of 2018 awards today and it showcases another victory for Chloe Zhao’s western drama TheRider. The indie pic already won Best Picture at the Gotham Awards over some higher profile competition. With two top prize victories, is there any chance TheRider could gallop into Oscar contention?
That seems doubtful, but you never know. This particular critics branch has previously honored movies that the Academy ignored. Recent examples include 2013’s InsideLlewynDavis from the Coen Brothers and 2014’s GoodbyetoLanguage from legendary French filmmaker Jean-Luc Godard. It is worth noting that the winners in 2015 and 2016 (Spotlight, Moonlight) won the Oscar and last year’s LadyBird was nominated.
In the Director race, it was another trophy for Alfonso Cuaron’s work in Roma. He already has achieved status as the Academy favorite. He also won for his cinematography.
Ethan Hawke received yet another critics prize here for Actor in FirstReformed, as did Olivia Colman in Actress for TheFavourite. The latter’s Oscar chances seem assured while Hawke is more of a mystery (I’ve got him in currently). Regina King’s SAG snub is seeming less and less important as she got another honor in Supporting Actress for IfBealeStreetCouldTalk. And Steven Yeun added to his reviewer group awards here with his Supporting Actor role in Burning. He’s racked several up, but still appears to be a long shot for Academy inclusion. Same goes for Screenplay as the Society went with TheDeath of Stalin. I’ve yet to include it in my Adapted Screenplay projections. It’s possible, but it probably won’t get in.
So while it was another good day for TheRider, I’m still skeptical that will equate to Oscar attention.
The Producers Guild of America (PGA) announced their nominees today for their 10 Best Pictures of 2018 and you better believe it comes with Oscar implications. The PGA Awards are correctly looked at as a major harbinger for the films likely to make the final cut of the Academy. Let’s look at the past five years. In 2013, eight of the nominated PGA pics got Oscar nominations. In 2014, 2015, and 2017 – it was seven. In 2016, that was number was nine. The math is a little tricky considering there’s always 10 PGA nominees and it fluctuates with the Academy (usually with eight or nine being the magic number).
As you can see, it’s very safe to assume seven out of the ten PGA picks will get Oscar love. And here are those ten nominees:
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Right off the bat, we have six flicks that appear to be sure things for the Academy. They are BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, and A Star Is Born. I would make the case that, at this point, Vice is the 7th. It got the most nods from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for the Golden Globes and its inclusion here is important.
So there’s your seven. Yet the PGA announcements today cause me to consider the 8th. That’s Bohemian Rhapsody. In my weekly Oscar prediction posts, I haven’t included it in my projected Academy movies for Best Picture. I suspect that will change next Thursday. It managed a nod at the Globes for Best Drama. Despite mixed reviews, it’s a box office sensation and audiences dig it. I think it’s in and look for that change to be reflected next week.
Now to the omissions. The PGA selections left out If Beale Street Could Talk and First Man. Those are the two pictures that, as of yesterday, I still had being nominated by the Academy. I still feel Beale‘s road to Best Picture inclusion is fairly solid, though it’s far from a guarantee. I had it listed at #7 yesterday. Expect that to change.
As for First Man, I think it’s time for me to admit that it won’t land recognition from Oscar voters. It has simply failed to gain any significant precursor traction and that trend seems bound to continue. Other pictures could have received a boost from the PGA today and failed. They include Can You Ever Forgive Me?, First Reformed, and Eighth Grade. Also the nods today provide further evidence that Mary Poppins Returns could be in trouble. I took it out of my expected nominees two weeks ago and I don’t see that changing.
So what will be the PGA picks that don’t get Oscar nods? My guess would be Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place, though it could happen. In short, we have more evidence today as to what the Academy will pick. And it’s a good day for Freddie Mercury and company.
We are now 19 days away from Oscar nominations as the major precursors are set to air in short order. It begins with the Golden Globes on Sunday (look for my winner predictions for that ceremony on the blog tomorrow). My updated rankings this week reflect the following changes:
Emily Blunt’s starring role in Mary Poppins Returns is back in my predicted top five, ousting Yalitza Aparicio from Roma
In Documentary Feature, RBG falls out of my nominees for the first time and makes way for Shirkers
In Editing, it’s Black Panther in for BlacKkKlansman. This contributes to my tally of Panther getting the most nominations of any picture for the first time (over A Star Is Born)
In Makeup and Hairstyling, Border crosses the top 3 with Mary Queen of Scots on the outside looking in
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Vice (PR: 8)
9. First Man (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)
11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)
12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
13. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)
14. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
15. First Reformed (PR: 15)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 8)
8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
10. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
9. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Widows
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)
10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 7)
7. Leave No Trace (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: 10)
10. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. First Reformed (PR: 5)
5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Private Life (PR: 9)
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)
10. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Burning (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Guilty (PR: 6)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 7)
8. Birds of Passage (PR: 8)
9. Ayka (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 4)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Early Man (PR: 6)
7. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Smallfoot (PR: 7)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)
10. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Free Solo (PR: 2)
3. Minding the Gap (PR: 4)
4. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)
5. Shirkers (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. RBG (PR: 5)
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 6)
8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)
9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 9)
10. On Her Shoulders (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dark Money
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. Roma (PR: 2)
4. Black Panther (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
8. Widows (PR: 10)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cold War (PR: 6)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
9. The Rider (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
BlacKkKlansman
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. First Man (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
9. Colette (PR: 10)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Vice (PR: 2)
2. Black Panther (PR: 1)
3. Border (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
7. Suspiria (PR: 7)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 3)
4. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
5. Roma (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 7)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 5)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 10)
8. Roma (PR: 6)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 9)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 4)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
7. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 8)
8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 7)
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)
10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
10. Vice (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)
8. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: 10)
9. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
And that breaks down to these movies getting the following number of nods:
12 Nominations
Black Panther
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man
8 Nominations
Roma
7 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns
5 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs
1 Nomination
Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Mary Queen of Scots, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ready Player One, Shirkers, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
We are just two days into the new year, but it’s already time for my first Oscar Watch post of 2019. That’s because HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld comes out in Australia tomorrow before its stateside release on February 22. Early reviews are out and the third and final installment of the Dreamworks Animation franchise is receiving solid ones. The action fantasy sequel stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
In 2010, the original Dragon nabbed a Best Animated Feature nod at the Oscars. Four years later, part 2 accomplished the same. Both pictures lost to titles coming from the mighty Mouse Factory – ToyStory3 and BigHero6, respectively. The Disney competition will be fierce this year with ToyStory4 and Frozen2.
That said, even at this extraordinarily early date, the latest Dragon already looks like a serious contender for a nomination given the history of the series. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It’s my final Oscar predictions of 2018 as the nominations draw closer (with the Golden Globes airing next Sunday)! And, yes, we’re seeing some changes:
First Man is back in my predicted nine with Mary Poppins Returns out. Bohemian Rhapsody continues to rise and is inching closer to possible inclusion.
In Best Director, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) is in with Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) out.
In Best Actress, Yalitza Aparicio returns to my top 5 with Emily Blunt’s title role in Mary Poppins Returns falling.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 5)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Vice (PR: 8)
9. First Man (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 11)
11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
13. A Quiet Place (PR: 14)
14. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)
15. First Reformed (PR: 15)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 9)
8. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 8)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
9. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 10)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 9)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)
10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)
7. First Man (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Widows (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
5. First Reformed (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Private Life (PR: 8)
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Sorry to Bother You
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Burning (PR: 5)
5. Capernaum (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Guilty (PR: 8)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)
8. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)
9. Ayka (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
4. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Early Man (PR: 6)
7. Smallfoot (PR: 7)
8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 8)
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor (PR: 1)
2. Free Solo (PR: 2)
3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)
4. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
5. RBG (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)
7. Shirkers (PR: 8)
8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 10)
10. Dark Money (PR: 9)
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Roma (PR: 1)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Green Book (PR: 10)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)
10. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Poppins Returns
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cold War (PR: 5)
7. Black Panther (PR: 6)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. First Man (PR: 5)
5. Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)
7. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
10. Colette (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Vice (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Border (PR: 5)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
7. Suspiria (PR: 7)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Roma (PR: 4)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)
7. Ready Player One (PR: 5)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 7)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 8)
10. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Visual Effects
1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 4)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. First Man (PR: 2)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
7. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 8)
8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 9)
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 7)
10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 6)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 10)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)
4. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)
8. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)
9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet
And that adds up to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born, Black Panther
10 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man, Roma
6 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Mary Poppins Returns
5 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 Nominations
Green Book, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Mary Queen of Scots, RBG
1 Nomination
Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
A couple of months back, AllIsTrue was announced as a surprise addition to the awards season calendar. At the time, it seemed like a legitimate contender. The tale of William Shakespeare in his later years comes from director Kenneth Branagh, who is no stranger to the Bard. His 1989 version of HenryV and 1996 Hamlet rendering both received Oscar nods, while MuchAdoAboutNothing and Othello (both from the mid 90s) did not. The filmmaker plays Shakespeare with a supporting cast including Judi Dench and Ian McKellen.
True is out in limited release today and a funny thing happened over the past few weeks. The picture received zero attention in precursors and the review embargo lifted just today. The result? Mixed critical reaction with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 57%.
Bottom line: I don’t expect this to garner any nominations come Oscar time as its fortunes clearly dwindled. And that, ladies and gentlemen, looks to be my final Oscar Watch post of 2018! My weekly predictions will be posted every Thursday up until the nominees are revealed. And as for what comes in 2019 – my Oscar Watch posts will continue…
