Category: Oscar Predictions

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 15th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Here’s some developments from last week to this one:

  • On the Basis of Sex screened at the AFI Fest and I believe its Oscar hopes in all categories took a significant dip. We’ll see if it can rebound, but it’s dropped out of contention in Picture, Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer), and Original Screenplay with Felicity Jones falling to #10 in Actress.
  • Speaking of AFI Fest, Mary Queen of Scots debuts this evening at the fest. By this time next week, I’ll have a much better idea as to its prospects.
  • Both Supporting categories experienced a change. I’ve moved Sam Rockwell (Vice) back in the top 5 with Adam Driver out. I’ve also put Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) in the predicted nominees with Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) out.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. First Man (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Widows (PR: 10)

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

12. Boy Erased (PR: 15)

13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)

14. The Mule (PR: 13)

15. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

On the Basis of Sex

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)

3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

7. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

9. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 9)

10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 6)

7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)

8. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 3)

2. Green Book (PR: 1)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Reformed (PR: 7)

7. Private Life (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

On the Basis of Sex

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Girl (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning (PR: 6)

7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

8. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

9. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Border (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Dogman

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

4. Mirai (PR: 4)

5. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 6)

8. Early Man (PR: 5)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Grinch

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)

2. Free Solo (PR: 1)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amazing Grace (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dark Money (PR: 7)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

9. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Quincy (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Science Fair

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 8)

7. Widows (PR: 6)

8. The Favourite (PR: 5)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 7)

7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

8. Widows (PR: 6)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Cold War (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

7. Roma (PR: 9)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 7)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colette (PR: 5)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

A Star Is Born

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 2)

2. The Favourite (PR: 1)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

5. Vice (PR: 4)

6. Colette (PR: 7)

7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

10. Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suspiria

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)

7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Avengers: Infinity War

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

4. Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

7. Roma (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Avengers: Infinity War 

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 4)

5. Annihilation (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 7)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 5)

7. Green Book (PR: 10)

8. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 9)

9. Roma (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suspiria

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)

5. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)

8. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

9. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 8)

And that provides the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born

9 Nominations

First Man, The Favourite

8 Nominations

Black Panther, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

5 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns

4 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Mary Queen of Scots

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Boy Erased, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ready Player One, Widows, The Wife, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Minding the Gap.

And that does it for now! Until next week…

Oscar Watch: Ralph Breaks the Internet

Ralph Breaks the Internet is expected to easily hit the #1 spot at the box office over the Thanksgiving holiday. The film is Disney’s highly anticipated sequel to 2012’s Wreck-It-Ralph and reviews are out today.

The verdict? Much like its predecessor, critical notice is strong as it currently stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some early notices say it doesn’t quite match the original, but it’s all pretty much a positive vibe.

As to where that puts Internet in the Oscar race for Best Animated Feature, I’d say it’s almost certainly in. Wreck-It-Ralph also nabbed a nomination in that category, but lost to Disney/Pixar’s Brave. That would appear to be what will happen again as Ralph should get a nod and lose to the heroes of Pixar’s Incredibles 2.

Bottom line: Ralph officially broke into awards chatter today, but studio competition should keep it from achieving gold. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

For my Creed II prediction, click here:

Creed II Box Office Prediction

For my Robin Hood prediction, click here:

Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: The Grinch

Over the weekend, Illumination Entertainment’s The Grinch dominated the box office with a mid 60s debut. The animated pic continues a string of pleasing grosses for the studio that houses the lucrative Despicable Me/Minions franchise.

Could that mean The Grinch finds its way into the mix for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars? It’s doubtful. For starters, reviews have been mixed as it currently sits at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. The race is also filling up with Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs with probable reserved spots and the upcoming Ralph Breaks the Internet looking to nab one. I feel that other wide release pics like Early Man and Smallfoot could also be potential contenders.

Most importantly, while Illumination produces blockbusters, that success hasn’t translated into nominations. Only Despicable Me 2 got one, with better reviewed titles like The Secret Life of Pets and other Despicable efforts left out.

Bottom line: the studio’s Grinch reward will come from its earnings and not awards ceremonies. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: On the Basis of Sex

The AFI Film Festival is underway and last night’s opening feature is the Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic On the Basis of Sex with Felicity Jones in the starring role. It’s been quite a cinematic year for the Supreme Court Justice, as the documentary RBG appears well positioned to land a nod in that race at the Oscars.

So will this big screen rendering of her life follow suit? On the basis of its critical reaction, the verdict is probably in the negative. While some reviews have been positive, others are more mixed and it currently stands at 60% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Best Actress is looking crowded this year and that likely leaves Jones out. The same holds true for supporting races with Armie Hammer and Kathy Bates. The latter has received some raves, but her role is said to be not much more than a cameo.

Bottom line: RBG’s chances for awards love lies most with the documentary and not this. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch – Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

J.K. Rowling’s world of wizardry is back in theaters next weekend with the release of Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald. It’s the second in a series of five planned features as it looks to conjure up huge box office dollars like predecessor Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them did.

Early reviews are out and the reaction is mixed at 56% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Not even the most acclaimed Harry Potter pics were ever considered awards contenders for major categories. However, down the line technical races are another story.

Two years ago, the first Beasts managed two Oscar nominations: Production Design and Costume Design. It won the latter. There’s no reason to think it couldn’t be a factor in both of those categories again. That said, voters could feel they’ve already honored the franchise with part 1. Visual Effects and Makeup and Hairstyling are in the realm of possibility, if unlikely.

Bottom line: the costumes especially could garner attention, but don’t expect Grindelwald to exceed (and maybe not match) the first movie.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 8th Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions have arrived once again! Some important developments from last week to this one:

  • Green Book rises and First Man falls. While I still have the latter receiving a Picture nomination, I’ve put in Peter Farrelly (Green Book) over Man maker Damien Chazelle in Director. In Best Actor, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) gets the nod over Ryan Gosling’s work. In Adapted Screenplay, it’s Widows in and First Man out. With Green Book, it now rises to the #1 spot in Original Screenplay over Roma.
  • The AFI Fest premieres tonight with the world debut of On the Basis of Sex. We’ll have a lot more info on its Oscar viability in just hours. The same festival will bring us the first screening and buzz for Mary Queen of Scots next week.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 5)

4. The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

7. First Man (PR: 6)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Widows (PR: 12)

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)

13. The Mule (PR: 13)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 11)

15. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)

7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

10. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)

9. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Robert Forster, What They Had

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 6)

10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 5)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

8. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Leave No Trace

Best Original Screenplay

1. Green Book (PR: 3)

2. Roma (PR: 1)

3. The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)

7. First Reformed (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Girl (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning (PR: 6)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 9)

8. Border (PR: 10)

9. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)

10. Dogman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Guility

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

4. Mirai (PR: 4)

5. Early Man (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 5)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 10)

8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Night is Short, Walk on Girl

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Best Documentary Feature

1. Free Solo (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

7. Dark Money (PR: 7)

8. Science Fair (PR: 5)

9. Quincy (PR: 10)

10. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Price of Everything

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 6)

7. Vice (PR: 5)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

July 22

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

4. The Favourite (PR: 6)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 9)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Cold War (PR: 5)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Mary Queen of Scots

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. First Man (PR: 3)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Roma (PR: 7)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Colette

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

5. Colette (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)

10. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

A Wrinkle in Time

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Favourite (PR: 3)

2. Black Panther (PR: 1)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Vice (PR: 5)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

7. Colette (PR: 9)

8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

10. Suspiria (PR: 8)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Roma (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 5)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 7)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ready Player One

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)

4. Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. Annihilation (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

5. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Roma (PR: 4)

8. Suspiria (PR: 9)

9. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 10)

10. Green Book (PR: 5)

Dropped Out:

Incredibles 2

Colette

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. “The Places Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

8. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 10)

9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)

10. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)

And that breaks down the following number of nominations for each film:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born

11 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man

8 Nominations

Black Panther, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book

4 Nominations

Mary Queen of Scots, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Poppins Returns

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody, Widows

1 Nomination

At Eternity’s Gate, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Annihilation, The Hate U Give, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Early Man, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, RBG, Minding the Gap

 

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 1st Edition

My first Oscar predictions in the month of November come with reductions and expansions. I am slimming the list of 25 Best Picture possibilities to 15 and the other major categories from 15 to 10. As you can see, I am also including all of the other feature-length races for the first time from Documentary to Animated Feature to Foreign Language Feature and the techs.

So what are the developments worth discussing? Well…

  • In these initial projections for all races, A Star Is Born and First Man tie for most nominations with 12 apiece. Truth be told, I’m skeptical that First Man will get there. Its poor box office performance could hinder its possibilities in some races. While I’m relatively confident it will score multiples nods in the technical categories, both director Damien Chazelle and star Ryan Gosling are questionable, even though I currently have them both getting honored.
  • In Best Picture, BlacKkKlansman rises from 6th to 4th in the list of predicted nominees. It’s a good week in general for the Spike Lee pic as I’m including Adam Driver for the first time in the list of predicted Supporting Actor nominees, replacing Sam Rockwell in Vice.
  • We got a surprise announcement this week as Kenneth Branagh’s All Is True will open in late December for a qualifying run. The director stars as William Shakespeare in the late stages of his life with a supporting cast including Judi Dench and Ian McKellen. I will likely wait for some buzz before possibly listing it as a predicted nominee. In addition to Picture, Director, acting slots, and screenplay – it has the potential in down the line races such as Costume Design and Production Design. It will certainly be one to keep an eye on.
  • For Foreign Language Feature, Roma is tops in my first predictions while it maintains its #2 spot in Best Picture. Pixar finds itself in familiar territory with Incredibles 2 leading Animated Feature. In what should be a competitive Documentary Feature race, Free Solo starts out at #1 with Three Identical Strangers close behind.

And with that, here’s what November brings as far as Oscar predictions!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

5. Green Book (PR: 4)

6. First Man (PR: 5)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

11. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)

12. Widows (PR: 10)

13. The Mule (PR: 12)

14. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)

15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place

Eighth Grade

Boy Erased

Leave No Trace

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Mary Poppins Returns

The Hate U Give

Cold War

Ben Is Back

Hereditary

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Widows

Clint Eastwood, The Mule

Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

John Krasinski, A Quiet Place

Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

7. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 7)

9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)

10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 7)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns 

Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher

Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 14)

10. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Vice

Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex

Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite 

Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots 

Rachel McAdams, Disobedience

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

Dianne Wiest, The Mule

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

8. The Hate U Give (PR: 11)

9. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Boy Erased

Disobedience

The Sisters Brothers

The Wife

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

7. First Reformed (PR: 6)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)

10. The Mule (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ben Is Back

Private Life

Hereditary

Stan and Ollie

Sorry to Bother You

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma

2. Cold War

3. Shoplifters

4. Girl

5. Capernaum

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning

7. Birds of Passage

8. The Guilty

9. Never Look Away

10. Border

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2

2. Isle of Dogs

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet

4. Mirai

5. Ruben Brandt, Collector

Other Possibilities:

6. Lu Over the Wall

7. Early Man

8. Night is Short, Walk on Girl

9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

10. Smallfoot

Best Documentary Feature

1. Free Solo

2. Three Identical Strangers

3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

4. RBG

5. Science Fair

Other Possibilities:

6. Minding the Gap

7. Dark Money

8. Crime + Punishment

9. The Price of Everything

10. Quincy

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born

2. Roma

3. First Man

4. The Favourite

5. Vice

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows

7. If Beale Street Could Talk

8. Black Panther

9. BlacKkKlansman

10. July 22

Best Cinematography

1. Roma

2. First Man

3. A Star Is Born

4. If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Cold War

Other Possibilities:

6. The Favourite

7. Black Panther

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

9. Widows

10. Mary Queen of Scots

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. First Man

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Mary Queen of Scots

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born

7. Roma

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

9. Colette

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Queen of Scots

4. Colette

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians

7. A Star Is Born

8. If Beale Street Could Talk

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

10. A Wrinkle in Time

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther

2. Mary Queen of Scots

3. The Favourite

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan and Ollie

5. Vice

6. Mary Poppins Returns

7. A Star Is Born

8. Suspiria

9. Colette

10. A Wrinkle in Time

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man

2. Black Panther

3. A Quiet Place

4. A Star Is Born

5. Incredibles 2

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

7. Avengers: Infinity War

8. Roma

9. Mary Poppins Returns

10. Annihilation

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man

2. A Star Is Born

3. A Quiet Place

4. Black Panther

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody

7. Roma

8. Incredibles 2

9. Avengers: Infinity War

10. Ready Player One

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man

2. Avengers: Infinity War

3. Black Panther

4. Ready Player One

5. Annihilation

Other Possibilities

6. Mary Poppins Returns

7. A Quiet Place

8. A Wrinkle in Time

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

10. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Best Original Score

1. First Man

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. BlacKkKlansman

4. Roma

5. Green Book

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Queen of Scots

7. Incredibles 2

8. Colette

9. Suspiria

10. The Sisters Brothers

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther

3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born

4. “The Place Where Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns

5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give

Other Possibilities:

6. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex

7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born

8. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns

9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG

10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud

And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for each feature:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born, First Man

10 Nominations

The Favourite

8 Nominations

Black Panther, Roma

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, Cold War, Incredibles 2

1 Nomination

Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Colette, Eighth Grade, Ready Player One, The Hate U Give, The Wife, Capernaum, Free Solo, Girl, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ruben Brandt, Collector, Science Fair. Shoplifters, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Oscar Watch: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Disney’s expensive rendering of The Nutcracker and the Four Realms dances into theaters on Friday and it does so with mostly negative reviews. It stands at just 26% on Rotten Tomatoes and the studio may have a rare commercial disappointment on their hands (the budget is a reported $130 million).

So why in the world am I doing an Oscar Watch post on it? Well, the one positive aspect most critics point out is its set design and outfits adorning the actors. That could put Nutcracker in a similar situation with the Mouse Factory’s live-action version of Alice in Wonderland in 2010.

That also received middling reviews (though it did very well financially). It was rewarded with nominations in Art Direction (now called Production Design) and Costume Design. Realms could certainly play in both of those categories and perhaps Makeup and Hairstyling. Wonderland also won Best Visual Effects, but that race could be a reach with this.

Bottom line: even though word-of-mouth is not strong, Nutcracker has a shot at some down-the-line categories.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 25th Edition

We have reached my last weekly Oscar predictions posts in the major categories for the month of October. Next week, we will see some big changes in my estimates! For starters, the listing of Best Picture possibilities will be whittled from 25 to 15. All other categories will be slimmed down from 15 possible nominees to just 10. Additionally, beginning next Thursday, I will be listing all races dealing with feature-length films. That means all tech races, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film, and Animated Feature are coming your way for the first time next week.

In the meantime, here’s some developments from last week to this one:

  • Bohemian Rhapsody, Beautiful Boy, and The Front Runner all fall out the top 25, making room at the bottom of the list for Cold War, Ben Is Back, and Hereditary. My nine predicted Best Picture nominees remain the same. A Quiet Place and Eighth Grade move to their highest rankings yet in 16th and 17th.
  • In Best Director, John Krasinski has his debut on the listings at #14 for A Quiet Place. The Coen Brothers work in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs falls out.
  • The mediocre critical reaction for Bohemian Rhapsody has me greatly questioning whether Rami Malek makes it in Best Actor after all. He drops from 4th to 6th with Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) now back in the fold.
  • John C. Reilly returns at #15 for his role in Stan & Ollie in Best Actor, knocking out Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased.
  • The continued switching between Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) and Glenn Close (The Wife) goes on with the latter reclaiming the top spot.
  • Maggie Gyllenhaal makes her first appearance at #13 in Actress for her role as The Kindergarten Teacher, replacing Carey Mulligan (Wildlife).
  • Mahershala Ali is back at #1 in Supporting Actor over Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), who falls to third behind Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born). Robert Forster (What They Had) also notches his highest chart placement at #9.
  • Emma Stone (The Favourite) and Claire Foy (First Man) switch the 2-3 spots in Supporting Actress, with Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) remaining #1.
  • First Man is back in the top 5 for Adapted Screenplay over Widows.

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 4)

5. First Man (PR: 5)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Widows (PR: 11)

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

12. The Mule (PR: 12)

13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)

14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)

15. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)

16. A Quiet Place (PR: 24)

17. Eighth Grade (PR: 20)

18. Boy Erased (PR: 16)

19. Leave No Trace (PR: 19)

20. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 17)

21. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)

22. The Hate U Give (PR: 23)

23. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bohemian Rhapsody

Beautiful Boy

The Front Runner

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)

12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 12)

13. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)

14. John Krasinski, A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

7. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)

8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 10)

10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 8)

11. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back (PR: 12)

12. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 11)

13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 13)

14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 14)

15. John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)

10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)

11. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 12)

12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)

13. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 13)

15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, Wildlife 

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 2)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

9. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 14)

10. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)

11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 11)

12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 10)

13. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 12)

14. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 13)

15. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

3. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 2)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)

7. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 11)

11. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

12. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 13)

13. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 12)

14. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)

15. Dianne Wiest, The Mule (PR: 15)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

7. Widows (PR: 5)

8. Leave No Trace (PR: 7)

9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

10. Black Panther (PR: 12)

11. The Hate U Give (PR: 13)

12. Boy Erased (PR: 9)

13. Disobedience (PR: 15)

14. The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Wife (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beautiful Boy

The Front Runner

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Reformed (PR: 7)

7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 6)

8. The Mule (PR: 10)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

10. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)

11. Ben Is Back (PR: 12)

12. Private Life (PR: 11)

13. Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stan & Ollie (PR: 13)

15. Sorry to Bother You (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

At Eternity’s Gate

Oscar Watch: The Girl in the Spider’s Web

On November 9, The Girl in the Spider’s Web drops in theaters stateside. It had its premiere at the Rome Film Festival and reviews are out. The film is a continuation of adaptations of the bestselling Swedish crime novels originated by Stieg Larsson (this particular book was penned by David Lagercrantz). If it seems odd to have an Oscar Watch post up for the thriller, don’t forget that 2011’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo nabbed five nominations: Best Actress (Rooney Mara), both Sound races, Cinematography, and Editing (which it won).

This version finds Claire Foy taking over the lead role of Lisbeth as she follows in the footsteps of Mara and Noomi Rapace before that. Don’t Breathe director Fede Alvarez takes over top duties after David Fincher made Dragon. Costars include Sverrir Gudnason, Sylvia Hoeks, LaKeith Stanfield, Stephen Merchant, and Vicky Krieps.

Early reaction is quite mixed and Web appears highly unlikely to match the many kudos that went to Fincher’s film. Critics are pointing out Foy as a highlight, but I wouldn’t look her to be a factor at all in Best Actress. Lucky for her, she is a definite factor in Supporting Actress with the already released First Man.

Bottom line: while Tattoo garnered Academy attention, don’t look for voters to stamp their approval here. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…