Box Office Predictions: November 30-December 2

The box office weekend that follows the holiday Thanksgiving weekend in typically one of the slowest movie frames of the calendar year. The reasoning is pretty understandable: lots of families and others take the time on that long weekend to check out a movie, as evidenced by this year’s record breaking Turkey weekend.

The post-Thanksgiving weekend is usually not a time when studios unveil any major new releases. Their November blockbusters are still in their second or third weekends and their big Christmas releases are coming soon. This weekend will see only two studio releases: Brad Pitt’s crime thriller Killing Them Softly and the severely under marketed horror flick The Collection. 

Most Holiday holdovers will experience up to 50-60% drop-offs from the previous holiday weekend, if history stays true. This may leave a legitimate battle for the #1 spot this weekend between The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 and Skyfall. There is a good possibility that Lincoln and Life of Pi will experience smaller declines than the contenders for #1 and #2 and could sneak in to those spots, but it seems unlikely. And there’s the question of the animated feature Rise of the Guardians, which opened well below industry expectations last weekend. Will it continue to falter at the box office and or will parents and kids see it the second weekend around? I expect it will have a decline pretty similar to the other movies and not improve its standing as a box office disappointment.

Killing Them Softly, starring Brad Pitt and James Gandolfini, doesn’t seem to be generating a whole lot of enthusiasm, even though its reviews so far have been quite strong. I don’t know if its trailers will do much, however, to bring audiences out and I suspect it will open outside the Top 5 and struggle to open in double digits.

The Collection is a horror film that its studio doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of faith in and I predict it will bomb.

With all that context, here’s my predictions for the weekend:

1. The Twilight Saga, Breaking Dawn 2

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 61%)

2. Skyfall

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. Lincoln

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 40%)

4. Life of Pi

Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 42%)

5. Rise of the Guardians 

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Killing Them Softly

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

As far as the other release from last weekend, Red Dawn performed above expectations, but I will predict a pretty hefty drop at 58%, giving it a second weekend gross of $6 million.

There ya go, bloggers and blogettes. Sunday, I’ll bring you the real numbers!

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