After two very quiet weeks at the box office where Thanksgiving leftovers dominated and two others films (Killing Them Softly and Playing for Keeps) came and went, the Christmas movie season officially gets underway with the release of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.

Director Peter Jackson kicks off his new trilogy of films based on Tolkien with one of the most eagerly anticipated titles of 2012. It will almost surely make more money this weekend than the rest of Top Ten combined. But how big is the question? It’s the director of the Lord of the Rings movies returning to Middle Earth. It’s been heavily hyped. On the flip side, it is not receiving quite the critical acclaim or awards buzz of Jackson’s first trilogy.  Not to say that’ll keep the fans away because it won’t, but it may not open on the higher ends of expectations, which would be be over $100 million this weekend. The last Rings saga grossed $72 million in its inaugural weekend in 2003 and ticket prices have jumped since then, so it’s reasonable to expect Hobbit will open bigger. With a film this anticipated, anything less than $75 million would likely be a considerable disappointment. For whatever reason though, I am having a tough time envisioning it doing over $100 million (but I could be way wrong on this one).

Meanwhile, the Turkey Day leftovers will slide between 30-50% most likely. This weekend really is all about The Hobbit though. No studio dared to schedule competition against it. And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $84.8 million

2. Rise of the Guardians

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Skyfall

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Lincoln

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 35%)

5. Life of Pi

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Sunday, we will see how right or wrong I am about that little hobbit. Stay tuned!

No major surprises this weekend with the box office results, but most films did better than my predictions and the dropoffs from last weekend were not as high as I anticipated.

Skyfall pulled off the rare feat of returning to the #1 spot in its fifth weekend after Twilight had been on top for the past three weeks. The all-time highest Bond grosser added another $11 million to its coffers, considerably higher than my meager $8.5M prediction.

Rise of the Guardians had the lowest drop-off at only 21%, putting it up to #2 with $10.5 million, higher than my $7.8M forecast.

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 ended its box office reign and dropped to third with $9.2 million, a million higher than my $8.2 million prediction.

Lincoln was fourth with $9.1M (I low balled with $7.4M) and Life of Pi was fifth with $8.3M (higher than my $7.3M forecast).

The critically panned Gerard Butler romantic comedy with come in sixth, as I predicted, with a disappointing $6 million. I gave it a little too much credit and predicted $7 million.

Predictions for next weekend will be up Thursday, when Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit invades theaters. Spoiler alert: I’m going to predict it opens at #1.

In what is sure to be another very slow weekend at the box office (just like last weekend’s post Thanksgiving frame), there is only one new entry opening: the romantic comedy Playing for Keeps, starring Gerard Butler. The film, quite honestly, looks indistinguishable from most other bad romantic comedies and it sits at precisely 0% on RottenTomatoes. Wow. Do not expect this one to do much business.

Or much of anything else for that matter. The top five films from last weekend could very likely be the top five again. Do not expect any of them to have the percentage drop-off they had last weekend, when most films tumble from the huge Thanksgiving frame. It appears that those movies may be tightly bunched together with what they make during this slow weekend, which makes it somewhat interesting to predict what #1 will be.

Next weekend is when the real Christmas box office battles heat up, with The Hobbit opening and a number of other high-profile flicks to follow right before Christmas or on the holiday. Until then, it’s still leftovers and an awful looking new rom-com.

With that, here’s my official predictions for the close race:

1. Skyfall

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

2. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)

3. Rise of the Guardians

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Lincoln

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Life of Pi

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 40%)

6. Playing for Keeps

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Official results will come Sunday.

 

The results are in for the typically slow post-Thanksgiving weekend and no real surprises here. As expected, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 and Skyfall battled for #1 spot, with the vampire flick edging out Bond. Twilight earned $17.4 (slightly above my $17.1M projection), with 007 at #2 with $17 million (slightly above my $16.7M). Lincoln came in third with $13.5 million, not holding up quite as well as I predicted (I guessed $15.4M). Rise of the Guardians held up slightly better than I predicted, grossing $13.5 million for fourth place (I predicted $12.8M). And Life of Pi dipped a bit more than I predicted – it made $12 million for fifth place (I predicted $13M). 

I wrote that Brad Pitt’s Killing Them Softly would struggle to reach double digits and predicted $9.6 million. It actually fared much worse, only grossing $7 million, representing Pitt’s worst live action opening in 18 years for a pathetic seventh place. Ouch. 

Disney’s Wreck It Ralph was in sixth with $7 million and Red Dawn placed eighth with $6.5 million, just slightly above my $6 million projection.

New predictions for next weekend will be up Thursday!

The box office weekend that follows the holiday Thanksgiving weekend in typically one of the slowest movie frames of the calendar year. The reasoning is pretty understandable: lots of families and others take the time on that long weekend to check out a movie, as evidenced by this year’s record breaking Turkey weekend.

The post-Thanksgiving weekend is usually not a time when studios unveil any major new releases. Their November blockbusters are still in their second or third weekends and their big Christmas releases are coming soon. This weekend will see only two studio releases: Brad Pitt’s crime thriller Killing Them Softly and the severely under marketed horror flick The Collection. 

Most Holiday holdovers will experience up to 50-60% drop-offs from the previous holiday weekend, if history stays true. This may leave a legitimate battle for the #1 spot this weekend between The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 and Skyfall. There is a good possibility that Lincoln and Life of Pi will experience smaller declines than the contenders for #1 and #2 and could sneak in to those spots, but it seems unlikely. And there’s the question of the animated feature Rise of the Guardians, which opened well below industry expectations last weekend. Will it continue to falter at the box office and or will parents and kids see it the second weekend around? I expect it will have a decline pretty similar to the other movies and not improve its standing as a box office disappointment.

Killing Them Softly, starring Brad Pitt and James Gandolfini, doesn’t seem to be generating a whole lot of enthusiasm, even though its reviews so far have been quite strong. I don’t know if its trailers will do much, however, to bring audiences out and I suspect it will open outside the Top 5 and struggle to open in double digits.

The Collection is a horror film that its studio doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of faith in and I predict it will bomb.

With all that context, here’s my predictions for the weekend:

1. The Twilight Saga, Breaking Dawn 2

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 61%)

2. Skyfall

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. Lincoln

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 40%)

4. Life of Pi

Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 42%)

5. Rise of the Guardians 

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Killing Them Softly

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

As far as the other release from last weekend, Red Dawn performed above expectations, but I will predict a pretty hefty drop at 58%, giving it a second weekend gross of $6 million.

There ya go, bloggers and blogettes. Sunday, I’ll bring you the real numbers!

Thanksgiving weekend 2012 will go down as the biggest Turkey Day frame in Hollywood history, with the majority of movies exceeding my forecasts, with one very notable exception.

I predicted that The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 would remain at #1 and it did. However, it outperformed my forecast, grossing $64 million (I said $61.4M).

James Bond remained #2, with Skyfall grossing an astonishing $51 million in its third weekend (I only predicted $33.5M). Clearly, moviegoers were in the mood for 007 and I suspect some of it was repeat viewings. Already the highest grossing Bond film ever, expectations for 2014’s Bond will be high after the critical and audience smash that this one has become.

Lincoln had an incredible second weekend. Grossing $34.1 million over the five-day (I predicted $31.2M), Steven Spielberg’s drama has captured the love of audiences and is a frontrunner for Best Picture, along with Argo and probably Les Miserables.

The real suprise this weekend is the lackluster performance the animated Rise of the Guardians. Most analysts (including me) assumed it would open at #2 and perhaps even challenge Twilight for the top spot. It stumbled out of the gate – grossing $32.6 million over the frame. I predicted $53.8 million. There is no doubt that Guardians is subpar compared to most animated openings and it will need to have strong legs over the next few weekends. If not, it will surely be considered a major disappointment.

Opening strong at #5 is another Oscar contender, Ang Lee’s Life of Pi, which overperformed expectations as well. I predicted $24.4 million, but Pi grossed $30.2M. Expect it to have strong legs in the weeks ahead too.

Disney’s Wreck-It-Ralph was sixth in its fourth weekend, grossing a better than expected $23 million, higher than my $18.5M forecast.

I was right about Red Dawn opening seventh, but it also performed way better than expected. The remake of the 1980s action flick grossed a solid $22 million, much higher than my $14 million prediction.

Finally, while I did not predict a gross for David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook, starring Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, and Robert De Niro, the Oscar contender performed well in its limited opening – #9, grossing $4.6 million on only 367 screens. Playbook will expand next weekend and could see solid results in the weeks ahead.

So there you have it – unless you’re Dreamworks who distributed Guardians – this was a great weekend for movie studios and a record-making Turkey Day weekend. I’ll post box office predictions on Thursday for next weekend!

The long Thanksgiving weekend is always a huge box office weekend and 2012 looks to be no exception – with the second week of Twilight and Lincoln, the third weekend of Skyfall, and the debut of three new titles – Rise of the Guardians, Life of Pi, and Red Dawn.

It’s certainly a crowded marketplace and not everything can do great, can it? For The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2, the film did not set the all-time Twilight opening record this past weekend, but still managed the eighth biggest debut of all time. To determine how it will hold up over the five-day turkey weekend, there is certainly precedence. Both New Moon and last year’s Breaking Dawn Part 1 opened in the mid-November weekend prior to Thanksgiving and both of those titles dropped approximately 70% during the holiday time frame. There is very little reason to suspect the final Twilight won’t follow a very similar trajectory.

That will probably be enough for the vampire saga to remain #1 at the box office, but it does face serious competition from the new Dreamworks animated feature Rise of the Guardians, which features Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and the Tooth Fairy as an Avengers type team (pretty cool concept, I must admit). With Wreck-It-Ralph now in its fourth weekend, kids should be primed for something else to drag their parents to. Guardians has received positive reviews and looks to have an impressive debut.

There could be a real battle for #3 between 007, Abe Lincoln, and Pi. Skyfall had a much smaller drop than its predecessor Quantum of Solace and its five-day gross might not be dramatically lower than its low-40s gross over the weekend.

Life of Pi, directed by Ang Lee and receiving Oscar buzz, is based on a well-loved book whose readers might make a trip to the theater this weekend. Pi is similar to Argo and Lincoln in the sense that its opening may not be mind-blowing, but it could have strong legs in the weeks ahead into Academy Awards season.

The real curiosity this weekend is Lincoln. It got off to a fantastic start with $21 million over the weekend on a relatively small number of screens. As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, I believe Lincoln has the real possibility of grossing quite a bit more over the Thanksgiving frame than its initial weekend. For one, it just seems like the type of film that families may go see over the break. I need look no further than my own – where my parents, my sister and brother-in-law, and I are planning a Friday trip to see it. Secondly, Lincoln is bound to capitalize on its terrific response from audiences this past weekend – it received a Cinemascore grade of “A”. Those who’ve seen it are telling their friends to see it – trust me, I know.

Finally, this weekend brings us the debut of Red Dawn, a remake of a 1980s cult classic. The film was shot a couple of years ago and shelved due to MGM’s financial difficulties. It does feature well-known stars Chris Hemsworth (The Avengers) and Josh Hutcherson (The Hunger Games), but the reviews have been negative and the field may simply be too crowded for this to do any big business.

With all that as context, here are my predictions for box office grosses from Wednesday, November 21 through Sunday, November 25:

1. The Twilight Saga, Breaking Dawn Part 2 

Predicted Gross: $61.4 million

2. Rise of the Guardians

Predicted Gross: $53.8 million

3. Skyfall

Predicted Gross: $33.5 million

4. Lincoln

Predicted Gross: $31.2 million

5. Life of Pi

Predicted Gross: $24.4 million

6. Wreck-It-Ralph

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million

7. Red Dawn

Predicted Gross: $14 million

There they are and I’ll post the updates on actual grosses Sunday night. In the meantime, I’m looking to post some new blog material over the holiday weekend! And thanks to those of you who have “liked” this blog’s new Facebook page. Please know that I “like” you all too!!

No one doubted that we were going to see a huge weekend at the box office and we did. On Thursday, I made my weekly box office predictions. For three of the four pictures, I overestimated a bit. For the other, I underestimated (hint: 16th President).

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 was gunning for a Top Ten All-Time opening and it achieved that. The film opened to $141.3 million, good for the eighth best opening of all time and fourth best of 2012, behind The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Hunger Games. However, it did not achieve the distinction of highest Twilight opening ever, which still belongs to New Moon at $142.8 million. This is a bit of a surprise, as most analysts (including this blogger) figured it would have the biggest opening in the franchise. I (over) predicted a gross of $153.8 million.

It’s hard to say a $141.3 million opening is disappointing and it’s truly not. It’s just a bit below a lot of projections, including my own. The final Harry Potter film easily had the greatest opening in its series, so it stood to reason that the last adventure of Edward, Bella, and Jacob would too. But it wasn’t to be.

I predicted Skyfall would fall 51% in its second weekend. It dropped slightly more – 53% – for a second week gross of $41.5 million. That’s still a terrific holdup, considering steep competition and the fact that the last Bond, Quantum of Solace, dropped 60% in its second frame. Even more impressively, Skyfall is already the highest grossing 007 picture ever worldwide. Amazing.

I wrongly predicted Disney’s Wreck-It-Ralph would be #3 this weekend and drop only 36%. It dropped more (45%) and grossed $18.3 million in its third weekend. Ralph is a major hit for Disney, though.

Other than Twilight having an all-time Top Ten debut, the other major story this weekend is Lincoln. I predicted a #4 debut with a gross of $18.1 million. That gross would’ve been considered very good, since its playing on a relatively low number of screens and is expected to do well not just on its opening weekend, but for the weekends to come. It outperformed my expectations and most others, opening third to $21 million. This is a fantastic opening. It received a grade of “A” from Cinemascore (audience polls), indicating it’s got a wonderful road ahead. I’ll avoid making the Lincoln/theater joke because you’ll see that everywhere else. What this means is that Lincoln and Argo are locked in a serious competition for what will win Best Picture (as I’ve mentioned before, Les Miserables could join that list too). Lincoln is bound to hold up very well over the Thanksgiving holiday.

I’ll be making next weekend’s predictions likely on Tuesday this week, since the new releases open Wednesday due to the holiday weekend. Stay tuned.

First things first: this is going be an enormous weekend at the box office. 

Reason #1: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2. The final installment of the franchise based on the bestselling novels had high expectations, to say the least. How high? If it doesn’t have one of the Top Ten biggest debuts of all time, that would be considered a disappointment. 

For some context, two of the last three Twilight installments currently sit at #7 and #8 of all-time opening weekends. Seventh is 2009’s New Moon, which made $142.8 million and eighth is Breaking Dawn Part I, which took in $138.1 million in the same weekend last year. 2010’s Eclipse, which came in between those two, opened on a Wednesday over the July 4th weekend and took in $176 million over that time frame.

Recent history tells us that the last opening has a great chance of being the biggest yet. In 2010, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I made $125 million in 2010. Its follow-up (which was the final Potter) made $169 million and currently sits at #2 of all-time openings.

With this being the last time audiences get to watch Edward, Bella, and Jacob – fans are bound to rush out right away and see it. However, I have a hard time seeing it grossing the amount of money that the last Potter made over its predecessor. I suspect Breaking Dawn, Part 2 will take in only slightly more than New Moon did three years ago, but still have the designation of biggest Twilight opening. 

This weekend’s two slot will undoubtedly be Skyfall, which broke the all-time Bond opening last weekend by a lot, earning $88.3 million. As I mentioned in a previous post, Skyfall is already considered one of the greatest 007 films ever and its second weekend drop-off will probably not be as steep as 2008’s Quantum of Solace, which dropped 60% in its 2nd weekend. A 50% drop seems more likely.

Then we get to Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, whose box office prospects I wrote about extensively earlier this week. In that blog post, I wrote that I expected the film to gross anywhere between $18-$38 million. I also mentioned that it was opening on only 1500 screens, which is a low number for an opening weekend. After writing my blog, I researched that screen number a little more closely and I am now very confident in stating that $38 million is out of the questions. For that matter, $28 million seems highly unlikely too. With the massive competition it’s facing, I expect Lincoln to debut on the lower spectrum of what I said earlier… and maybe less. It could open at #3, but it’s more likely to be number four, behind the third weekend of Wreck-It-Ralph.

With all that context, here are my official predictions for the box office this weekend. I’ll report back Sunday and tell you how smart or dumb I am:

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2

Predicted Gross: $153.8 million

2. Skyfall

Predicted Gross: $43.4 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. Wreck-It-Ralph

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)

4. Lincoln

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

Yes, that’s about as low as you can get on the scale I gave you earlier this week about Lincoln, but that will still be considered a rock solid opening on 1500 screens and I suspect it will continue to play well week to week, just like Argo is currently doing.

Along with Argo, it seems to be the frontrunner for winning Best Picture this year. It sits at 93% right now on Rotten Tomatoes. The performances are also being talked about as Award-worthy, with lead Daniel Day-Lewis possibly becoming the first performer in Oscar history to win three Best Actor awards. Its directed by the most-famous director in the world, Steven Spielberg. 

But how will Lincoln, opening wide this Friday, do at the box office? I’ll make a formal prediction on Thursday, but I’m writing this post today because the honest answer is… it’s kinda hard to tell. 

For starters, there’s competition out there. Serious competition. Skyfall had an enormous opening over the weekend. It already has the reputation (took only a week) of being one of the greatest Bond movies ever. Its second weekend drop-off will likely not be as steep as the last 007 adventure Quantum of Solace, which tumbled over 60% in its sophomore frame. Even if it drops fifty percent, it’ll still gross nearly $45 million next weekend.

And then there’s the only major release this weekend… The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2. The final installment of this hugely successful franchise is certainly going to be #1 this weekend. Part I opened last year in the same weekend to a $138 million opening weekend, representing the fifth biggest movie opening ever at the time. It now sits at #8, after The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Hunger Games opened bigger this year. There’s no reason to believe Part 2 won’t have a similar opening or maybe even a bigger opening. The final Harry Potter film in 2011 had the biggest opening weekend of the franchise and sits at #2 of all time openings (it was #1 until Avengers). So, its certainly possible audiences will rush out to see the last Twilight right away.

This all certainly leaves Lincoln looking at the #3 spot in its inaugural weekend. The main question I have is this: will Lincoln be a movie people want to rush out and see the first weekend? Will older audiences simply wait until the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend when they have time off from work? 

It is possible that Lincoln will follow the box office performance of Argo, having a solid first weekend and then experiencing small drop-offs from weekend to weekend. Or maybe its gross on turkey weekend may actually surpass the opening weekend, which is very rare for any picture to do. 

When making box office predictions, there’s usually about a $5 million dollar window either way in which I think a film will open. This is not the case with Lincoln. I could see it grossing anywhere from $18-$38 million. That’s rare having such a wide discrepancy. One major factor: Lincoln is only opening on approximately 1500 screens. For some context, the new Twilight will open on over 4000 screens. A gross of $38 million on that few screens would be astonishing.

What also makes predicting Lincoln tough for me? In the environment I work in, nearly everyone I know is dying to see it. This probably isn’t a fair representation of the general public (certainly not teenage to 20 something girls who will spend their weekend watching vampires hunters who are NOT Abe Lincoln). Certainly not the many moviegoers who will catch James Bond due to its hugely positive word-of-mouth. 

I’ll make my prediction Thursday, but I might be way off. We shall see.