Along with After Earth, which opens Friday, the caper film Now You See Me represents the first of the summer flicks that is an original story. It’s not based on a comic book, a novel, a TV show, and it’s not a sequel! Pretty rare for a May release, I must say. By the way, I’ve already done my After Earth prediction on the blog and it can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/27/after-earth-box-office-prediction/

Now You See Me comes from director Louis Leterrier, who made the Transporter pictures and 2008’s The Incredible Hulk. It’s about a team of magicians who also do bank heists. Now features a cast of several recognizable faces, including Jesse Eisenberg, Mark Ruffalo, Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher, Morgan Freeman, and Michael Caine… none of whom have a proven track record of opening a picture whatsoever.

The film is a rather curious choice for a late May release and a bit of a gamble from Summit Entertainment. It comes with a reported $70 million budget, which isn’t anywhere near Iron Man, Star Trek, or Fast&Furious levels – but it’s still not small potatoes. I actually think it looks like it could be a lot of fun and I dig the cast, but I’m not sure this will get audiences to the multiplex. It has the feel of a “wait until DVD” title and while it’s been decently marketed, nothing about this shouts Event Movie… you know, like pretty much everything else out right now.

As I see it, if Now You See Me grosses above $20 million – that should be considered a victory. I am more inclined to predict a low to mid teens opening. If it gets decent reviews, perhaps it’ll have legs in future weekends.

Now You See Me opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million

That’s all for now. Tomorrow, I’ll make my predictions for next weekend’s Top Five.

After Earth will go quite a ways towards answering this question at the box office over the weekend: how bankable is Will Smith anymore?

This is a very open question. The Fresh Prince has kept a relatively low-profile over the past few years. His only high-profile summer pic since 2008’s Hancock was last summer’s Men in Black 3. It earned $179 million domestically – not a bad number, but also the lowest of the trilogy. Smith had an incredible run from 1996 to 2008 where four of his films (Independence Day, Men in Black, I Am Legend, Hancock) earned over $200 million and seven others crossed the $100 million mark.

After Earth does not have the advantage of being a sequel or being based on a known property. The trailers, in my opinion, have been unimpressive. Earth features the actor costarring with his son, Jaden. The younger Smith had a giant hit of his own two years ago with the Karate Kid remake, produced by his dad. The story is based on Will’s original idea and is directed by M. Night Shyamalan. At one time, the fact that M. Night is behind the camera would have been a selling point for the studio. Those days have passed and I wrote an extensive post just yesterday focused on Shyamalan’s career:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/25/the-rise-and-fall-of-m-night-shyamalan/

So – let’s get to the prediction, shall we? As I see it, anything above a $50 million opening should be considered a nice surprise for all involved here. I just don’t see that happening and I’m not seeing enough in the marketing campaign to justify that prediction. A better question is whether After Earth reaches $40 million. And I’m not even sure of that.

There’s a big part of me that wants to project a low-30s opening here. However, I’m going to give Smith a little bit of credit here with his ability to open a science fiction picture. This is a tough one and I could see this falling anywhere between $30-$50 million. Neither extreme would shock me. I may regret this, but I will say:

After Earth opening weekend prediction: $39.1 million

That’s all for now. Check back tomorrow for my opening weekend projection for Now You See Me, which also debuts Friday. On Wednesday, I’ll predict next weekend’s top five, including projections for how Fast and Furious 6, The Hangover Part III, and Epic hold up in their sophomore frames.

**Update: my opening weekend prediction for Now You See Me can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/now-you-see-me-box-office-prediction/

Moviegoers propelled the 2013 Memorial Day box office to record setting levels. The 2011 Memorial weekend was previously the biggest moneymaking frame when The Hangover Part II grossed a gargantuan $135 million. That record stands no more.

However, The Wolf Pack is not the primary reason why this time around. That honor belongs to Fast and Furious 6, which grossed a fantastic $120 million over the four-day frame. This comes in above my $106.8M projection. Clearly the goodwill from Fast Five (the franchise’s best reviewed and highest earning entry) and solid reviews for the sixth edition made this the must-see event of the weekend. The seventh Fast film is already slated to open next summer.

The news was not as good for the aforementioned Wolf Pack. The Hangover Part III opened to tepid reviews and received a “B” Cinemascore grade (for comparison, the second Hangover got an A-). It was starting to feel like audiences were souring on the franchise and this proved true. Part III grossed $51.2 million over the four-day frame and $63 million over the five-day frame (it opened Thursday, unlike the weekend’s other new entries). This is lower my projections of $60.3M and $77.4M over the four and five day, respectively. If a $63 million opening seems decent to you… well, not so much. Let me put it to you this way – that’s $72 million dollars lower than its predecessor’s opening gross just two years ago. Ouch.

Star Trek Into Darkness had an encouraging second weekend after a somewhat disappointing opening weekend. The JJ Abrams sequel earned $47 million over the holiday frame – above my $41M projection. A gross north of $200 million seems likely at this point.

The summer’s first animated feature Epic made a respectable $42.6 million, a tad below my $45.5M projection. It’s going to be a few weekends before Epic receives direct competition, so it should hold nicely for awhile.

Rounding out the top five is Iron Man 3 in its fourth weekend. It earned $24.4 million, slightly above my $21.7M estimate.

Tonight on the blog, I’ll make my projection for After Earth, Will Smith’s sci-fi flick opening this Friday. Tomorrow, my estimate for next weekend’s other opener, Now You See Me. Stay tuned!

Well, folks, we’ve arrived at my Top Five Box Office Predictions for one of the most confusing and wild weekends I can ever recall.

Why?

Well, we have two huge releases Fast and Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III opening opposite each other. And we have Fox’s animated Epic which may have a hefty debut as well. I wrote separate blog posts on all three major openings with my predictions:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/19/the-hangover-part-iii-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/20/fastfurious-6-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/epic-box-office-prediction/

We’ve got the second weekend of Star Trek Into Darkness, which debuted below expectations last weekend with $83.7 million. It was expected to make over $100 million. And we’ve still got Tony Stark and Gatsby out there. Can you say crowded marketplace?

I’ve extensively discussed what I think will happen in the posts above. Bottom line: I look for Vin Diesel, The Rock, and his Fast cohorts to dominate The Hangover‘s Wolf Pack. I expect Epic to have a solid debut.

And I look for Star Trek to lose about half its audience and continue its surprisingly unremarkable returns. Iron Man 3 should round out the top five. It’s worth noting that Hangover opens Thursday, while Fast and Epic debut Friday. My Top Five projections are my Friday-Monday (Memorial Day) predictions, but I’ve factored in my full five-day Hangover prediction. Got that? Yeah, it’s confusing.

MEMORIAL DAY 2013 BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS

1. Fast&Furious 6

Predicted Gross: $106.8 million

2. The Hangover Part III

Predicted Gross: $60.3 million ($77.4 million projected five-day opening)

3. Epic

Predicted Gross: $45.5 million

4. Star Trek Into Darkness

Predicted Gross: $41 million

5. Iron Man 3

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

I’ll be updating the Facebook page throughout the long weekend with results and Monday on the blog with final results. I will readily admit – this has been the toughest weekend since I started the blog to predict results. We’ll see what happens.

From 20th Century Fox this Memorial Day weekend comes Epic, a new animated feature that may benefit from being the only title in release marketing towards a kiddie audience.

It’s been two months since The Croods did robust business and that feature is now winding down. While we have two other huge debuts this weekend in Fast&Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III, those flicks are competing for the same audience. Epic is going after little ones and their parents.

Featuring a seriously eclectic voice cast that includes Amanda Seyfried, Colin Farrell, Josh Hutcherson, Christoph Waltz, Beyonce Knowles, Steven Tyler, Jason Sudeikis, and rapper Pitbull, Epic has the benefit of being the first animated feature out of the gate this summer. Oh, there will be plenty more: Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, Turbo, and Planes. 

Two months ago, The Croods opened at $43.8 million on a three-day gross, albeit in a less crowded market. Frankly, anything below $40M for any high-profile animated flick is pretty weak and I expect Epic to top that, though not by a whole lot. Even with a four-day gross factored in, Epic doesn’t seem to have any major buzz to it, but should still bring in enough of its target audience. As with any animated film, Epic could certainly surpass my somewhat modest prediction, but I’ll say:

Epic opening weekend prediction: $45.5 million

Tomorrow on the blog, my projection for Memorial Weekend’s Top Five.

Memorial Day weekend may answer the following question at the box office: Are moviegoers beginning to tire of the Wolf Pack?

Bradley Cooper, Zach Galifianakis, and Ed Helms return in The Hangover Part III, which opens on Thursday. Two years ago over the same weekend, the second Hangover installment earned an astonishing $135 million over the Thursday-Monday holiday period. This time around, there’s a key difference. While the first Hangover was a beloved comedy where audiences couldn’t wait for the gang to return, the sequel (while a huge hit) was met with a more mixed reaction. Due to this, the chances of #3 posting a similar debut weekend seems unlikely.

And then there’s the competition factor. In 2011, The Hangover Part II‘s opened against Kung Fu Panda 2, which was obviously going after a different audience. Now the Wolf Pack faces some serious competition in the form of Fast and Furious 6. I honestly was surprised when the decisions were made to open these titles against each other as I believe it will negatively effect numbers for both. Both Hangover and Furious are going after the younger male audience.

A fair comparison to what I believe could happen to this franchise is the Fockers trilogy with Robert De Niro and Ben Stiller. Audiences loved the original and were eager to see the second. The first sequel, Meet the Fockers, made a huge $279 million. By the time the third entry Little Fockers came around, audiences had begun to tire of the series and it only made $148 million. The first Hangover stormed multiplexes in summer 2009 with $277 million. The second in 2011 made $254 million. I don’t expect the third time to be the charm. It also doesn’t help that the trailers really haven’t been very funny.

Of course, there will be plenty of moviegoers ready to welcome the Wolf Pack back. I just don’t believe it will approach past entries. I’m actually more worried that my five-day prediction might be a little too high with Vin Diesel and company competing against it. And there’s also the second weekend of Star Trek Into Darkness, even though it opened lower than expectations. Maybe I’m wrong that audiences are giving up on this franchise, but that’s the feeling I get.

The Hangover Part III opening prediction: $77.4 million

Yep, that’s a full $58 million less than the second film’s take just two years ago and would be considered a pretty major disappointment.

Tomorrow on the blog, I’ll make my prediction for Fast and Furious 6. Stay tuned!

Star Trek Into Darkness had a surprise opening at the box office this weekend with a softer than expected debut. Most prognosticators (including yours truly) estimated the sequel to the 2009 hit would gross over $100 million over the Thursday to Sunday frame. My exact prediction was $106.2M.

It didn’t go down that way. Darkness earned $84.1 million, not much higher than the three day opening of the original four summers ago. This has got to be a letdown for Paramount when one of their summer tentpoles opens a full $20 million below expectations. Still, an A Cinemascore grade could forecast nice legs ahead, even though there is fierce competition coming next weekend.

Other titles came in just a bit below my predictions. Iron Man 3 was second with $35.2 million (I projected $37.3M). In its second weekend, The Great Gatsby took third with $23.4 million (I estimated $25.6M). Pain and Gain was fourth with $3.1 million (I went with $3.4M). I incorrectly estimated 42 would be fifth with a $3.3 million gross. It came in sixth with $2.7 million, making The Croods fifth with $2.8 million.

Starting tonight on the blog, I’ll have prediction posts for the three big debuts for Memorial weekend. This evening – my prediction for The Hangover Part III. Tomorrow – Fast and Furious 6. Tuesday – the animated feature Epic. Stay tuned!

JJ Abrams eagerly awaited Star Trek Into Darkness blasts into theaters this weekend. Opening on Thursday, I wrote a detailed blog post Monday in which I predicted its four-day take will bring in over $100 million. That post can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/13/star-trek-into-darkness-box-office-prediction/

Captain Kirk and company should have no problem whatsoever debuting atop the box office. Last weekend’s #1 and #2 Iron Man 3 and The Great Gatsby, both huge hits, are likely to see drops close to the 50% range. It will be interesting in particular to see how Gatsby performs in its sophomore weekend. While the picture had a massive $50M opening, it earned a fairly weak B Cinemascore grade. Still, it’s the only title out there marketing to the female audience.

Rounding out the top five, Pain and Gain and 42 are bringing in considerably smaller grosses than the top 3 and are likely to see smaller declines.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s Top Five:

1. Star Trek Into Darkness

Predicted Gross: $106.2 million (over Thursday-Sunday)

All remaining predictions are for Friday to Sunday frame:

2. Iron Man 3

Predicted Gross: $37.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. The Great Gatsby

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Pain and Gain

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. 42

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)

That’s all for now, but on Saturday I’ll have early results for how things are shaping up. And, of course, there will be a full report Sunday on the blog!