**Blogger’s Note: This post has been updated on the evening of Thursday, April 18th to reflect my weekend prediction for The Place Beyond the Pines, which expands to over 1500 theaters tomorrow. I was not aware of that wide a count until this evening and my predictions reflects its expansion and predicted inclusion in the Top Five for this weekend.

Only one new wide release this weekend and it’s a major one – the Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller Oblivion. On Monday, I wrote a post outlining my prediction for the film, which can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/oblivion-box-office-prediction/

With no new offerings this weekend, that only leaves the question of how holdovers will maintain. And the news is probably very good for last weekend’s champ, 42. The Jackie Robinson biopic had a higher than expected opening at $27.5 million last weekend. With a remarkable A+ Cinemascore grade, I look for the picture to hold up quite well in its sophomore weekend. And, frankly, moviegoers may simply be in the mood for something uplifting after this difficult week.

The same cannot be said for Scary Movie V, which bombed last weekend with an embarrassing $14.2 million debut. A hefty drop looks to be in order.

The Place Beyond the Pines with Bradley Cooper and Ryan Gosling has been performing well in limited release. This weekend, it expands to over 1500 screens and has an excellent shot at entering the Top Five.

Finally, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation should experience similar declines to what they’ve experienced in recent weekends.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Oblivion

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million

2. 42

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 28%)

3. The Croods

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. The Place Beyond the Pines

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Scary Movie V

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 60%)

As always, updates will be posted this weekend!

Oblivion marks the sole new wide-release title opening this weekend. The sci-fi thriller from Tron: Legacy director Joseph Kosinski and starring Tom Cruise, Oblivion looks to be a real test of the star’s current box office power.

A little history. From the early 90s through the early part of the last decade, Tom Cruise was arguably the most bankable actor in Hollywood. During a lengthy time period, he starred in blockbuster after blockbuster, from the Mission: Impossible flicks to The Firm to A Few Good Men to Jerry Maguire to Minority Report to War of the Worlds and more.

Cruise’s box office history has been more checkered lately. While 2011’s Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol was a smash hit, his action comedy Knight and Day with Cameron Diaz was a disappointment. Other recent vehicles such as Valkyrie and December’s Jack Reacher were mid-size hits, not blockbusters.

Oblivion has the advantage of having the weekend to itself as far as new releases. It is worth noting that the current #1, 42, had a bigger than expected opening and is likely to have a robust second weekend, which could slightly eat into Oblivion‘s debut.

Reviews so far for Oblivion have been pretty solid and the trailers are decent. With a reported price tag of $120 million, Universal Pictures is certainly keeping their fingers crossed. There’s no doubt that Cruise is the main attraction here. The picture co-stars Morgan Freeman and Quantum of Solace Bond girl Olga Kurylenko, but the story here is whether Cruise still has the ability to headline a huge opening when not playing Ethan Hunt.

So what’s the range on what I believe Oblivion could open at? I think the high water mark could be as much as $50 million. A safer estimate would be around $40 million. Truth be told, I’m a little skeptical. As mentioned, there’s been nothing really wrong with the marketing campaign, but I’m just not so sure this will reach those lofty numbers. Anything below a $30 million opening weekend would be looked at as a considerable letdown. By the way, Oblivion is opening on a massive 3900+ screens.

Cruise is simply not the draw he used to be. It’s certainly feasible that Oblivion could gross $40 million or over and, frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me. I’m going on the lower end of the spectrum, though and will predict:

Oblivion opening weekend prediction: $32.8 million

As always, I’ll be back on Wednesday with full Top Five predictions for the weekend, as the aforementioned 42 should hold up quite well in its second frame.

On a brief personal note, I’m writing this post while taking a break from being glued to the TV set this Monday night. Needless to say, my thoughts and sympathies go out to the great people of Boston this evening.

The Jackie Robinson biopic 42 scored an impressive opening atop the box office this weekend, grossing $27.4 million. This is slightly higher than my $24.7M projection. The news gets even better for the pic: it received a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, meaning audiences are clearly loving it. Its long-term prospects look quite positive and I would expect small drop-offs in the next couple of weekends.

All positive stuff with 42… not so much for Scary Movie V. As the Die Hard franchise showed just a couple of months ago, the fifth time is not exactly the charm for franchises lately and that held true for the Scary Movie series. While the two previous installments both grossed over $40 million in their opening weekend, #5 struck out with only $14.1 million, below my $22.6M estimate. This is likely the nail in the coffin for the 13 year old series or it may be relegated to straight-to-DVD status from now on.

Numbers 3-6 played out pretty much as expected among holdovers. The Croods placed third with $13.1 million (a bit below my $14.3M projection), G.I. Joe: Retaliation was fourth with $10.8 million (my prediction: $10.8M… bam), last weekend’s winner The Evil Dead dropped far to fifth with $9.4 million (I projected $9.1M), and the Jurassic Park re-release was sixth with $8.8 million (I said $8.8M… bam again). Not too shabby.

The Ryan Gosling/Bradley Cooper crime thriller The Place Beyond the Pines expanded its theater count and grossed a solid $3.8 million, slightly above my $3.3M projection. Another expanded title, Danny Boyle’s Trance, didn’t fare as well with a meager $896,000, below my $1.9M projection.

Be sure to check back tomorrow for my projection on next weekend’s big release, the sci-fi thriller Oblivion with Tom Cruise. And don’t forget to check out www.boxofficeace.com, the new website that I’m pleased to be a part of. You can actually find all my box office predictions for 2013 on that great new site!

Two high-profile films open at the box office this weekend, along with two other talked-about flicks expanding their theater counts. We may well see a real battle for the #1 spot between the newbies: the Jackie Robinson biopic 42 and the fifth installment in the Scary Movie franchise. Then we have the expansions of two well-reviewed pictures: Danny Boyle’s thriller Trance and The Place Beyond the Pines starring Ryan Gosling and Bradley Cooper. Added to the mix: the second frame of last weekend’s champ The Evil Dead, the third weekend of G.I. Joe, and fourth weekend for The Croods. Oh, and the second weekend of the Jurassic Park re-release. Can you say busy weekend?

The baseball drama 42 focuses on the career of the legendary Jackie Robinson, with Chadwick Boseman as the title character and Harrison Ford as Branch Rickey. The pic has been well-publicized, especially during the NCAA basketball championship. Its release coinciding with the start of baseball season certainly can’t hurt. Less than two years ago, another baseball drama Moneyball opened to a solid $19 million. I believe 42 has the potential to go beyond that number. Its ceiling could be as high as $30 million, but I’m projecting a gross in the mid 20s.

Scary Movie V is a tough one. It’s been seven long years since the fourth installment of the successful franchise. The third film opened to an astonishing $48 million and #4 earned a fantastic $40 million opening. Starring tabloid legends Charlie Sheen, Lindsay Lohan, and Katt Williams, it’s hard to ignore the feeling that this film series time has come and gone. However, it may be foolish to underestimate its potential. That leaves a real quandary… I believe Scary Movie V could shock us all and having an opening similar to its predecessors. That would mean it easily opens #1, most likely. But I’m going to go the opposite direction and predict that father time has caught up with the franchise.

Aforementioned critical hits The Place Beyond the Pines and Trance expand to approximately 450 and 400 theaters, respectively. The two films could post solid per-screen averages that will help decide how much further they expand. To give you an idea of relation to screen openings, both 42 and Scary Movie are opening on around 3000 screens.

The Evil Dead scared up a very impressive $26 million opening last weekend. It also earned a dismal C+ Cinemascore average. Horror flicks tend to drop big anyway and Dead should follow suit. The Jurassic Park re-release posted a good $18 million opening for fourth place. A drop of at least 45-55% seems likely. And last weekend’s #2 and #3 G.I. Joe Retaliation and The Croods should swap places. With their percentage drops, this will likely cause The Croods to stay put in third place.

And with all that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. 42

Predicted Gross: $24.7 million

2. Scary Movie V

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

3. The Croods

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

4. G.I. Joe: Retaliation

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. The Evil Dead

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 65%)

6. Jurassic Park 3D

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

With their openings in a low number of venues, I’ll predict $3.3 million for The Place Beyond the Pines and $1.9 million for Trance.

And there’s your predictions. Check back through the weekend for updates and Sunday for final numbers!

The Evil Dead remake scared up some very solid box office numbers this weekend, opening well beyond my prediction. Dead earned $25.7 million, above my $19.8M projection. The Sam Raimi produced horror flick has a budget of only approximately $15 million. A sequel has already been greenlit. One minor concern for the studio: Dead received a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, indicating audiences didn’t really like what they saw (critics were much kinder). Horror titles generally experience significant drop-offs in the second weekend and the same should be expected here.

Holdovers G.I. Joe: Retaliation and The Croods were close for second and third earning $20.8 and $20.6 million, above my $18.7M and $18.2M projections, respectively. Joe dropped only 49%, holding up considerably better than G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra, which dropped 59% in its sophomore frame in 2009.

The 20th anniversary re-release of Spielberg’s Jurassic Park also exceeded my expectations with a strong $18.6 million. I predicted only $12.8M. Finally, Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor held up slightly better than my projection with $10 million in its second weekend (I estimated $8.9M).

In summation, this was a weekend where everything out there did better than I thought (an encouraging sign for the studios). Be sure to check back this week on the blog for next weekend’s box office predictions, when the Jackie Robinson biopic 42, Scary Movie V, and the Ryan Gosling/Bradley Cooper crime thriller The Place Beyond the Pines all open in wide release. Stay tuned!

The Easter box office weekend went mostly as expected, with G.I. Joe: Relation opening on top with a solid gross of $51 million, just above my $49.5M projection. The sequel to the 2009 film posted good numbers, even though it’s unlikely to match the $150 million domestic gross of its predecessor.

Dreamworks animated The Croods dropped from the top spot to second, as expected. It earned $26.7 million, slightly lower than my $29.3M estimate.

Opening in third, as predicted, was Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor. The picture gave Perry his best non-Madea opening of all time, grossing an impressive $21.6 million, above my $19.2M projection. Apparently, unless the name of the movie is Alex Cross, Perry still has a lot of clout at the multiplex.

In fourth, Olympus Has Fallen grossed $14.1 million in its sophomore weekend. I incorrectly guessed the action thriller would not fall over 50% and predicted a $16.8 million weekend. The film dropped 53%. Still, Olympus is a hit, giving star Gerard Butler his first successful pic in quite some time.

The bad news of the weekend fell to The Host, based on Twilight author Stephanie Meyer’s book. I was actually pretty low on my prediction compared to other analysts, predicting a $15.7 million opening weekend gross. The Host bombed, managing a meager $10.6 million. With a discouraging “B-” Cinemascore grade, there’s no way for the studio to spin it: The Host is a dud. With that bad of an opening, the film only managed a sixth place debut (I predicted fifth) and Oz The Great and Powerful got the five spot with $11.7 million.

Be sure to check back this week on the blog for next weekend’s projections, when the horror remake The Evil Dead and the 20th anniversary re-release of Jurassic Park open. Stay tuned!

A trio of new titles debut over the Easter weekend frame to compete with the second frames of hits The Croods and Olympus Has Fallen.

There is little doubt that G.I. Joe: Retaliation, with The Rock, Channing Tatum, and Bruce Willis will reign supreme over the weekend. I wrote an extensive post on Monday going over my prediction for G.I. Joe‘s debut. It can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/03/25/g-i-joe-retaliation-box-office-prediction/

Just as the #1 title is virtually assured, #2 will almost certainly belong to the second weekend of Dreamworks animated feature The Croods. The film had an impressive debut with over $43 million on opening weekend. A typical fall for this would be around 30-35% and that’s what I expect.

Things get more complicated after that. Slots 3-5 could be any order among the following three movies: the new Tyler Perry feature Temptation, the new fantasy pic The Host, and Olympus Has Fallen.

Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor seems destined to open in line with just about every other non-Madea Perry feature. That would put it in the range of a mid-teens to low-twenties opening weekend gross. It’s even got Kim Kardashian in it!

The Host is based on a novel by Twilight author Stephanie Meyer. The film is directed by Andrew Niccol, who directed the well-regarded 1997 sci-fi flick Gattaca. He also wrote 1998’s The Truman Show. Niccol’s last feature was not well-received critically or commercially, 2011’s In Time with Justin Timberlake. The Host has the potential of gaining a big audience among teenage girls and it could certainly gross above $20 million. However, I just don’t see a great amount of enthusiasm and I’m predicting it will not reach that mark.

Finally, Olympus Has Fallen scored a very solid debut last weekend, grossing over $30 million. Audiences seem to really dig it as it earned an “A-” Cinemascore average. While titles like this often drop 50% or more in their sophomore frames, I am projecting Olympus will not fall that far.

And with that, my predictions for the Easter box office weekend:

1. G.I. Joe: Retaliation

Predicted Gross: $49.5 million

2. The Croods

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)

3. Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

4. Olympus Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. The Host

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

As always, I’ll have updated posted throughout the weekend with a final report on Sunday!

As Easter weekend approaches at the box office, all industry eyes are on the opening of G.I. Joe: Retaliation, which has the very real potential of having the 2nd biggest opening of the year so far, behind Oz The Great and Powerful.

In order to do so, the sequel would need to beat the current #1’s opening weekend, The Croods, which just earned $44.7 million in its debut. This certainly seems like a real possibility.

To recap, 2009’s G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra was met with high negativity from critics, earning a weak 34% on Rotten Tomatoes. It didn’t matter. When the original debuted in August 2009, it made an astonishing $54 million in its debut weekend, surpassing industry expectations. It went on to earn $150M domestically.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation was originally supposed to be released in June 2012, but was pushed to March 2013 in order to do more effects work. It’s also been said that the studio didn’t want to open the picture on the same day as Magic Mike, which featured Retaliation costar Channing Tatum. That may be code for… they wanted Tatum to be an even bigger star when this was released. Mission accomplished.

This film also brings in action vets Duane “The Rock” Johnson and Bruce Willis to the mix, alongside Tatum. Though most major reviews have yet to be published, word is that Retaliation is a major improvement over its predecessor.

So… this would all lead you to believe that it will outgross Cobra, right? Not so fast. For starters, a summer opening usually means the potential for a bigger opening weekend period and by moving its release date, Retaliation eliminates that factor. There is also some lingering competition from Olympus Has Fallen, which had a great opening over the weekend and may experience a relatively small decline.

And then there’s the fact that while a lot of moviegoers saw the original… a lot of them didn’t really like it that much. Therefore, those same moviegoers may not rush out to see the sequel, even if it is supposed to be an upgrade.

The ceiling for Retaliation could be something like a $60 million opening. That would be fantastic and Paramount and Hasbro would be popping champagne bottles for a gross like that. My feeling is it will struggle to match the $54 million brought in by Cobra in its inaugural weekend. It could even struggle to have 2013’s second biggest weekend and outpace the $44.7M that The Croods made. Anything below $40 million would be a major disappointment and might cause the brass at Paramount and Hasbro to start drinking for different reasons.

Ultimately, I will predict that G.I. Joe: Retaliation gets to the second biggest weekend of the year, but doesn’t match Cobra‘s gross.

Final Prediction

G.I. Joe: Retaliation opening weekend: $49.5 million

Be sure to check back Wednesday for my full Easter box office predictions, as The Host and Tyler Perry’s Temptation also open and The Croods and Olympus Has Fallen enter their sophomore frames.