Tyler Perry Presents Peeples is virtually assured the #3 spot at the box office this weekend when it debuts. The comedy should fall behind Iron Man 3 in its second weekend and The Great Gatsby, which is highly likely to open in the runner-up spot. I predicted a $41.3M opener for Gatsby.
Most of the flicks coming out of the Tyler Perry factory have been directed and/or written by the star. This time around, he’s only producing, but the studio was smart enough to put his name in the title, as with his other features. Perry’s non-Madea pictures tend to debut somewhere in the mid-teens to mid-twenties. Some recent examples:
The Family That Preys: $17.3 million opening
I Can Do Bad All By Myself: $23.4 million opening
Good Deeds: $15.5 million opening
Confessions of a Marriage Counselor: $21.6 million
Most of those titles did not debut in the heat of the summer movie season. That’s worth mentioning because Iron Man 3 will have a massive second frame and Gatsby should do well. There is competition out there.
The film basically looks like the Perry version of Meet the Parents. It’s got a good cast – Craig Robinson from “The Office”, “In Living Color” alum David Alan Grier, and Django Unchained co-star Kerry Washington. Simply having the name Tyler Perry attached to it likely means a respectable opening, though I don’t believe it reach above $20 million, even though that’s certainly possible. I’m thinking mid-to-high teens is a better possibility.
Tyler Perry Presents Peeples opening weekend prediction: $18.5 million
Tomorrow, I’ll make my predictions for the weekend’s top five, including my projection on how Iron Man 3‘s second weekend shapes up.
Originally scheduled for release in December 2012, this weekend finally brings us the eagerly-awaited The Great Gatsby. From Romeo and Juliet and Moulin Rouge director Baz Luhrmann comes the fourth film adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s novel. Gatsby is headlined by Leonardo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan, and Tobey Maguire in this romantic drama set in 1920s era New York.
The picture has had an aggressive marketing campaign. Go look at a magazine rack in your local supermarket and you’ll see Leo and Carey’s faces frequently. With a reported $127 million budget, Gatsby is certainly looking to make its mark domestically and worldwide. This is one title that has the potential to do greater business overseas than stateside.
While Warner Bros. decision to push back Gatsby to summer 2013 from the more Oscar-friendly December 2012 season was first met with confusion, the move is now looking to be perhaps a shrewd one. The main reason: there is really nothing out there right now that is primarily marketing to the female audience. We’ve still got Tony Stark and friends entering their second weekend with Iron Man 3 and the following weekend we will see Kirk and Spock in Star Trek Into Darkness. Memorial Day weekend brings Fast and Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III. All are titles more concerned with bringing in the dudes than the ladies. I would suspect some female significant others take their male counterparts to see the film this weekend because they watched Iron Man 3 last weekend.
With its star power driven by Leo and some effective trailers (not to mention a buzzed about soundtrack), Gatsby could be in a position to exceed expectations. Conventional wisdom would put the pic around a $30-35 million opening. Anything less would have to be considered a letdown due to the budget.
I’m going a little higher, just as I did with my Iron Man 3 projection (and that worked out pretty well). I went with $172.4M for the third Tony Stark adventure. It made slightly more with $174.1M. On Wednesday, I’ll have my projection for Iron Man 3‘s second weekend where it’ll certainly remain #1. Tomorrow, I’ll have my projection for the weekend’s other new release, Tyler Perry Presents Peeples.
Today, though, it’s about Gatsby. And it’s about predicting a healthy debut for it.
The Great Gatsby opening weekend projection: $41.3 million
Disney and Marvel’s Iron Man 3 has kicked off the 2013 Summer Movie Season in grand fashion with the second biggest opening domestic weekend of all time.
Tony Stark and friends propelled the pic to a fantastic $174.1 million opener, opening just slightly above my $172.4M projection. With an A Cinemascore grade, the future looks bright for Iron Man. It will certainly be the highest grosser of the trilogy and the odds are heavy that it will not only be the summer’s highest earning title, but possibly the biggest of 2013, period. Iron Man 3 managed to outdo the gross of the final Harry Potter installment, which earned $169 million in its debut.
As I mentioned in my predictions post last week, it’s last summer’s The Avengers that had audiences primed to see Tony Stark return. Filmgoers will get their next taste of Avengers action in November when Thor gets his sequel and next year when Captain America does, too. It is, of course, The Avengers that continues to hold the honor of largest opening weekend ever. That record should stand for a while.
Iron Man 3 accounted for around 80% of all US business at the multiplex this weekend. As expected, no other title reached double digits. Last weekend’s #1 Pain and Gain fell off sharply with $7.5 million in its second weekend (below my $8.9M projection). 42 was third with $6 million, which is precisely what I predicted. It was the Tom Cruise sci-fi pic Oblivion that suffered the most, in fourth with $5.6 million (well below my $8.1M projection). The Croods rounded out the top five with $4.2 million… I said $4.3M.
The Marvel blockbuster looks to repeat at first next weekend as new entries The Great Gatsby and Tyler Perry Presents Peeples join the mix. I’ll have predictions posts for both of those titles early this week. Stay tuned!
It’s all about Iron Man 3 this weekend at the box office as the Summer 2013 Movie Season officially begins. On Sunday, I wrote an extensive post in which I boldly predicted the film will have the second biggest US opening of all time after last summer’s The Avengers. That post can be found here:
All other titles should experience falls between the mid 40s-mid 50s percentage range, with the likely exception of The Croods, which has experienced smaller declines week to week. Last weekend’s #1 and #2, Pain and Gain and Oblivion, have been met with mixed reaction from audiences. Pain and Gain disappointed in its opening last weekend with $20 million and its C+ Cinemascore grade would indicate a precipitous drop, especially with Tony Stark arriving on scene.
That said, here’s my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Iron Man 3
Predicted Gross: $172.4 million
2. Pain and Gain
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 55%)
3. Oblivion
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. 42
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
5. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)
Check back this weekend on the Facebook page for updates on how Tony Stark and friends are doing and, of course, on the blog Sunday for final results.
There is one box office record that Iron Man 3 will not break when it opens this weekend, officially kicking off the 2013 Summer movie season.
It will not have the biggest opening weekend of all time. That honor belongs to The Avengers at $207 million and is highly unlikely to be broken this year.
It may not be the biggest sequel opening of all time, though it could be. The #2 largest opening weekend belongs to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 at $169 million. #3 belongs to The Dark Knight Rises at $160 million, with its predecessor The Dark Knight fourth at $158 million.
Clearly it will not have the all-time opening record for a film featuring a comic book superhero. And, obviously, it stands little chance of having the biggest opening for a movie with the character Tony Stark in it. The Avengers shall remain the one with that designation.
Having said all that, the third installment in the Iron Man franchise looks poised for a massive debut this weekend. It will unquestionably set the record for largest 2013 debut so far, likely crushing the $79 million debut by Oz the Great and Powerful. In fact, Iron Man 3 may well have the largest opener of the entire year. The only real competition would be Man of Steel or November’s Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
The original Iron Man in 2008 surpassed industry expectations with a $98 million opening weekend. Its sequel in 2010 made a killing with a $128 million debut. Respectively, that represents the #24 and #11 all-time openers. Iron Man 3 is very likely to exceed both of those grosses this weekend and then some.
This is not because Iron Man 2 was a beloved entry in the superhero movie genre… it wasn’t. It’s because last summer’s The Avengers was. That movie was a phenomenon and its considerable coattails should propel Robert Downey Jr.’s return as Tony Stark to new heights. Iron Man 3 is likely to be the highest overall domestic earner of the trilogy. The first topped out at $318 million and the follow-up at $312 million. It will definitely have the highest opening.
Another plus: reviews for the third installment are quite positive with some critics proclaiming it the best of the series so far and nearly all deeming it a vast improvement over #2. This all adds to the buzz of Iron Man 3 being a must-see event.
I just posted my Top Ten Superhero Movies of All Time in a separate piece. You can review it here:
Could Iron Man 3 join the original Iron Man and The Avengers on that list? We shall see soon enough.
The possibility of Iron Man 3 having the 2nd largest opening of all time is real. Very real. It would need to debut higher than the final Harry Potter‘s $169 million. That could happen and I am inclined to go with that. Internationally, the picture opened higher than Avengers did last year. That was unexpected. We could all be surprised when the numbers roll in this coming weekend. Who knows? It could even reach Avengers level numbers domestically.
Ultimately, I’m predicting Iron Man 3 reaches the #2 all-time domestic opening. It may not and could fall under Harry Potter’s gross and even the grosses of the Nolan Batman sequels. To me, however, Iron Man 3 is moving forward with incredible momentum that should earn it the runner-up spot, second only to the full Avengers team.
Iron Man 3 opening weekend prediction: $172.4 million
On Wednesday, I’ll make my predictions for the top five this weekend. SPOILER ALERT: I’m going with Iron Man 3 at number one.
It’s the calm before the summer season storm as the weekend’s new releases both came in below my fairly modest projections.
Michael Bay’s Pain and Gain with Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson took the #1 spot with $20 million, under my $23.8M projection. While the true crime action/comedy had a meager $25 million budget and looks to be profitable, this is a pretty soft opening. More discouraging signs lie ahead – it received a low C+ Cinemascore grade, indicating Pain will fade fast.
I was on the money with my projection for the second weekend of Tom Cruise’s Oblivion. The sci-fi thriller did dip below 50% in its sophomore frame with $17.4 million. My prediction was $17.3M. Gold star!
The Jackie Robinson biopic 42 was third in its third weekend with $10.7 million (just below my $11.5M estimate).
The weekend’s other new release was the ensemble comedy The Big Wedding. With mostly brutal reviews and a muted marketing campaign, not many RSVP’d for this Wedding. It tanked with $7.5 million and a fourth place showing. I was more generous and predicted it’d open with $11.2M. Oops.
Rounding out the top five was the animated The Croods, which took in $6.5 million (I said $6.6M, so gold star once again).
As mentioned, this is the calm before next weekend’s box office storm in the form of Tony Stark and Iron Man 3, which officially kicks off the summer season. Look for my post tomorrow on the blog with my projection for how it performs next weekend. And check out http://www.boxofficeace.com – where you can also predict the box office gross for Iron Man‘s third go-round at the multiplex!
Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson look to nab the top spot at the box office this weekend with Pain and Gain. On Monday, I wrote a post outlining my thoughts on how it’ll open. The full rundown is linked below and I’m projecting a $23.8 million debut.
The weekend’s other newbie is The Big Wedding, with its all-star cast. Again, my Monday post on its box office viability is linked below. I’m going with $11.2 million.
As for the holdovers, the big question is how well Tom Cruise’s Oblivion holds up in its second weekend. It opened last weekend to an impressive $37 million debut. There are some signs of trouble brewing: it received a weak B- Cinemascore grade and it now has direct competition for the male audience with Pain. A drop of over 50% is a strong possibility.
42 and The Croods should experience relatively minimal declines and remain in the top five. And with that, my predictions for the last weekend before the BIG summer movies start rolling out:
1. Pain and Gain
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Oblivion
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)
3. 42
Predicted Gross: $11.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. The Big Wedding
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
5. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)
Updates will be posted throughout the weekend with the full wrap-up Sunday!
The real box office battle is likely to occur between newcomer Pain and Gain and Oblivion‘s second frame this coming weekend, but there is a potential wild card with The Big Wedding, the ensemble comedy feature that debuts Friday.
Featuring an all-star cast that includes Robert De Niro, Katherine Heigl, Diane Keaton, Susan Sarandon, and Robin Williams, Wedding has seen a curiously muted marketing campaign. It feels a bit as if Lionsgate has little confidence with it.
That could be a sign that, for a lack of a better term, The Big Wedding sucks. That definitely wouldn’t be a shock – the trailer isn’t very funny and it looks derivative of a lot of other flicks.
The signs point to a weak opening – little fanfare, blah trailer. The cast, filled with famous faces, doesn’t contain one actor who can open a movie nowadays. The only thing this Wedding has in its favor: there is a serious dearth of movies out right now with appeal to the female audience. That factor alone could push it to a larger than expected opening.
Anything above $14-15 million would have to be looked at as a pleasant surprise and a strong showing from females could get it there. Anything below $10 million is pretty embarrassing… and it also wouldn’t surprise me if that happened. I’ll give this Wedding the benefit of the doubt that it reaches double digits, but not by much.
The Big Wedding opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
Michael Bay’s action-comedy Pain and Gain hits theaters this weekend and will attempt to nab the #1 spot over the second weekend of Tom Cruise’s Oblivion, which grossed a very solid $38 million this weekend.
Pain and Gain stars Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, who have been omnipresent at the multiplexes in recent months. Wahlberg had a monster hit last summer with Ted and a considerable box office disappointment with January’s crime drama Broken City. The Rock, meanwhile, has been very busy. In February, it was the mid-size hit Snitch. In March, the G.I. Joe sequel. Pain and Gain for April. And for May, it’s the sixth installment in the Fast and Furious franchise.
Director Bay is mostly known for gargantuan budgeted action spectacles like Armageddon, Pearl Harbor, and the Transformers films. Pain and Gain comes with a relatively tiny $25 million budget so its highly likely to be profitable.
The combo of Wahlberg and Johnson could bring out the male and female audience. The trailers have been decent. There is, of course, still competition for the male audience with Oblivion and the female audience with this weekend’s other new entry The Big Wedding.
Pain and Gain has the potential to open bigger than my prediction. Anything over its $25 million budget for an opening weekend would be terrific. Anything below $16-17 million would be considered fairly disappointing. I’m going a little closer to the high end.
Will my predicted opening weekend gross be enough to vault it to #1? You’ll have to wait until Wednesday for my Top 5 predictions, but my prediction here is:
Pain and Gain opening weekend prediction: $23.8 million
Later this evening, my forecast for the other opener this weekend, The Big Wedding.
The science fiction thriller Oblivion starring Tom Cruise easily took the #1 spot at the box office this weekend and managed to outdo my expectations. Oblivion gave Cruise his fifth highest opening of all time, earning $37 million (above my $32.8M projection). This is good news for the star, whose box office track record has been spotty as of late. While the fourth Mission: Impossible was a huge blockbuster in 2011, recent titles Valkyrie and Jack Reacher were only mid-size performers, while Knight and Day and Rock of Ages were straight up disappointments.
One cause for concern for Oblivion: it earned a weak B- Cinemascore grade. With Pain and Gain opening next weekend to attract the male audience and Iron Man 3 around the corner in two weeks, long term prospects for Oblivion are questionable.
Last weekend’s champ 42 slipped to second with $17.7 million, a bit below my $19.7M projection. The Jackie Robinson story has amassed an impressive $54 million and looks assured to cross the $100 million mark.
Third place went to The Croods with $9.2 million (higher than my $8M projection). Box office dud Scary Movie V held up barely better in its sophomore weekend than I predicted with $6.1 million (I said $5.7M).
Finally, the expanded roll out of the Ryan Gosling/Bradley Cooper crime drama The Place Beyond the Pines didn’t match my expectations. I predicted it would be #4 with $6.4 million. It only managed a #6 opening with $4.9 million. This allowed G.I. Joe: Retaliation to place fifth with $5.7 million.
Tomorrow on the blog – I’ll have my prediction up for Michael Bay’s Pain and Gain, starring Mark Wahlberg and The Rock, as well as the ensemble comedy The Big Wedding. Those predictions will also be posted on http://www.boxofficeace.com, which you need to visit if you haven’t already. Stay tuned, my friends!
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