Box Office Predictions: March 29-31

A trio of new titles debut over the Easter weekend frame to compete with the second frames of hits The Croods and Olympus Has Fallen.

There is little doubt that G.I. Joe: Retaliation, with The Rock, Channing Tatum, and Bruce Willis will reign supreme over the weekend. I wrote an extensive post on Monday going over my prediction for G.I. Joe‘s debut. It can be found here:

Just as the #1 title is virtually assured, #2 will almost certainly belong to the second weekend of Dreamworks animated feature The Croods. The film had an impressive debut with over $43 million on opening weekend. A typical fall for this would be around 30-35% and that’s what I expect.

Things get more complicated after that. Slots 3-5 could be any order among the following three movies: the new Tyler Perry feature Temptation, the new fantasy pic The Host, and Olympus Has Fallen.

Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor seems destined to open in line with just about every other non-Madea Perry feature. That would put it in the range of a mid-teens to low-twenties opening weekend gross. It’s even got Kim Kardashian in it!

The Host is based on a novel by Twilight author Stephanie Meyer. The film is directed by Andrew Niccol, who directed the well-regarded 1997 sci-fi flick Gattaca. He also wrote 1998’s The Truman Show. Niccol’s last feature was not well-received critically or commercially, 2011’s In Time with Justin Timberlake. The Host has the potential of gaining a big audience among teenage girls and it could certainly gross above $20 million. However, I just don’t see a great amount of enthusiasm and I’m predicting it will not reach that mark.

Finally, Olympus Has Fallen scored a very solid debut last weekend, grossing over $30 million. Audiences seem to really dig it as it earned an “A-” Cinemascore average. While titles like this often drop 50% or more in their sophomore frames, I am projecting Olympus will not fall that far.

And with that, my predictions for the Easter box office weekend:

1. G.I. Joe: Retaliation

Predicted Gross: $49.5 million

2. The Croods

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)

3. Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

4. Olympus Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. The Host

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

As always, I’ll have updated posted throughout the weekend with a final report on Sunday!

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