Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

Carrie Box Office Prediction

2013 marks the first time in a long time that no horror movie prefaced with Saw or Paranormal Activity sees an October debut. Instead, the only genre flick meant to capitalize on Halloween month is Carrie, which I suppose was the inevitable remake of Brian De Palma’s 1976 scare fest.

Based on Stephen King’s first novel, the ’76 version earned Oscar nominations for Sissy Spacek and Piper Laurie. This time around it’s Kick-Ass star Chloe Grace Moritz and Julianne Moore taking over the lead roles. The remake was originally set to debut in March before it was pushed back.

One big question keeps popping up in my mind here: do audiences really want to see a Carrie remake? The original is a genre classic. Yet unlike the remakes of Friday the 13th or Halloween or A Nightmare on Elm Street, there was never a franchise spawned from it to keep it constantly in the public’s mind. Actually there was a “sequel” in 1999 called The Rage: Carrie 2 that earned a weak $17 million domestically. The fact that no horror flick opens this month could certainly help and, frankly, horror movies often open much bigger than people like me say they will.

However, I don’t sense much excitement for this one. The familiarity with the original and the October release date should guarantee it a $20 million plus opening (if it falls below that, it’ll be considered a major letdown). I don’t think it’ll get much over that number though and it will likely fade quickly.

Carrie opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million

For my Escape Plan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/escape-plan-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Fifth Estate, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-fifth-estate-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: October 11-13

Gravity continues to defy expectations as it had a remarkable hold in its second weekend. The Alfonso Cuaron space thriller with Sandra Bullock (whose Oscar buzz for this continues to grow) and George Clooney dipped only 21% in the sophomore frame with $44.3 million. This is above my $33.4M projection. Gravity is not just a hit… it’s turning into a phenomenon. In just ten days, it’s made $123 million. An eventual domestic gross of $250 million is not out of the question. To put it in perspective, the pic grossed more in its second weekend that I thought it would make with its opening.

Captain Phillips starring Tom Hanks provided a strong hit for the actor, who hasn’t seen many in the last half decade. Phillips debuted with $26 million, north of my $19.1M estimate. With a terrific A Cinemascore grade, expect this Captain to do well in subsequent weeks as its Oscar buzz also continues to build.

In third place in its third weekend, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 took in $14.2 million, right on target with my $14.3M projection. The animated sequel has earned a sturdy $78 million and looks like a safe bet to cross the century mark.

Landing with a thud in fourth place is Machete Kills. The Robert Rodriguez sequel starring Danny Trejo, Jessica Alba, Lady Gaga, Mel Gibson, and many more couldn’t capitalize on its star power as it made an awful $3.7 million. This is well below my what I thought was a meager $7.2 million estimate.

In the five spot was the bomb Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck which also made $3.7 million in week #2, right in line with my predicted $3.5M. Runner has made only $14 million in ten days and should struggle to reach $20M domestic.

Be sure to check the blog as the day rolls on as my predictions for next weekend’s trio of newbies comes in: the horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate.

Box Office Predictions: October 11-13

This coming weekend, Tom Hanks as Captain Phillips and the star-studded sequel Machete Kills open and try to take down the box office juggernaut that is Gravity. You can find my individual posts on both new pics here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/captain-phillips-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/machete-kills-box-office-prediction/

I seem to be going lower than most prognosticators so far on Captain Phillips. I’m sticking with my prediction and believe it will suffer small declines in future weekends. As for Machete Kills, I’m not expecting much.

Gravity should hold onto the #1 spot and have a fairly small decline. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 is likely to experience a drop in its third weekend in the low-30s. The Justin Timberlake/Ben Affleck bomb Runner Runner should hang around in the top five but suffer a sizable fall from its already weak opening weekend debut.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $33.4 million (representing a drop of 40%)

2. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)

4. Machete Kills

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

5. Runner Runner

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 55%)

I’ll have updates this weekend on the blog as the numbers roll in!

Machete Kills Box Office Prediction

Audiences were first introduced to Danny Trejo’s character Machete in 2007’s Grindhouse in one of the brilliant fake trailers. This led director Robert Rodriguez to helm Machete in 2010. That film opened to a fair $11.4 million and overall domestic gross of $26 million. Not great numbers, but it only cost $10.5 million to produce so a profit was made and a sequel was greenlit.

Now we have Machete Kills some three years later with Trejo and Jessica Alba returning and an all-star cast of new characters played by Mel Gibson, Antonio Banderas, Sofia Vergara, Lady Gaga, and Charlie Sheen (playing The President no less!). The budget has nearly doubled to $20 million.

Simply put, I don’t see much demand for a sequel. I believe Machete Kills will basically be a dud and will not match the opening weekend gross of its predecessor. There’s also plenty of competition out there with Gravity and Captain Phillips. Maybe I’m missing some pent up longing for violent Machete action, but I don’t think so.

Machete Kills opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million

For my Captain Phillips prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/captain-phillips-box-office-prediction/

Captain Phillips Box Office Prediction

Based on the true life 2009 Somali pirate hijacking, director Paul Greengrass tells the story of Captain Phillips, out Friday. With Tom Hanks in the title role, the pic received solid word of mouth from film festivals and sits at a strong 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. Greengrass is right in his wheelhouse with the subject matter having directed United 93 as well as The Bourne Supremacy and The Bourne Ultimatum.

Phillips is being touted as an Oscar contender for Picture, Director, and Actor (it would be Hanks’s first nomination in 13 years). What could perhaps hinder its debut is the performance of another Oscar hopeful, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity. That pic just set the October opening weekend record with $55 million and it may experience a relatively small decline in weekend number two.

Captain Phillips could fall anywhere from a $15 million debut to the high 20s, in my estimation. It should have strong legs after its opening based on critical reaction and word of mouth. For now, I’ll say it falls just shy of $20 million for an opening.

Captain Phillips opening weekend prediction: $19.1 million

For my Machete Kills prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/machete-kills-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: October 4-6

Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller Gravity starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney has captured the attention of moviegoers and earned the title of best October opening of all time. The record was previously held by Paranormal Activity 3 with $52.5 million.

Defying even the high end of expectations, the pic grossed a terrific $55.6 million – well above my $38.7M prediction. With an A- Cinemascore grade, Gravity looks to have a healthy run in coming weeks and could stay #1 for at least one more weekend. The impressive opening is also a career-best for Bullock as her previous highest was this summer’s The Heat with $39.1 million. And it’s the best opening for Clooney, too – above the $42.8 million for (sadly) 1997’s Batman and Robin.

As expected, last weekend’s champ Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 fell to second place with $21.5 million – right on target with my $21.8M projection.

The noise made by Gravity unquestionably affected other films marketed towards adults… and in negative fashion. The weekend’s other newbie Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck failed to connect with a weak $7.6 million debut, below my $10.9M estimate. The pic ends the magical 2013 run of Timberlake, who’s been having a banner year on the music charts.

Rounding out the top five, Prisoners took fourth with $5.7 million (just below my $6.2M projection) while Ron Howard’s Rush fell further than I figured it would in its second weekend with only $4.4 million (I said $6.1M). While the Formula One racing pic was a hit with critics, audiences are clearly ambivalent.

At press time, numbers were not available for Metallica Through the Never, which I predicted would gross $2.8 million. I’ll update those numbers when I have them.

**Update: Metallica Through the Never managed only $682,000, well below my estimate. It seems the pic (marketed as an IMAX release) lost a lot of screens due to… you guessed it, Gravity.

Be sure to check the blog later today for individual predictions on next weekend’s openers, Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks and Robert Rodriguez’s sequel Machete Kills. 

Box Office Predictions: October 4-6

Alfonso Cuaron’s critically acclaimed sci-fi flick Gravity starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney should easily open at the #1 spot this weekend. I’m not expecting a whole lot of out the weekend’s other newbies, Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck and the concert film Metallica Through the Never. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/gravity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/runner-runner-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/metallica-through-the-never-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 came in well below my projection, grossing $34 million in its debut. A sophomore frame drop in the mid-30s seems likely while last weekend’s #2 and #3 Prisoners and Rush should fall in the high 30s-low 40s. With a debut on only approximately 650 screens, the Metallica pic should open well outside the top five.

And with that, my estimates for this coming weekend’s top five pics:

1. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million (representing a drop of 36%)

3. Runner Runner

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

4. Prisoners

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Rush

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

I’ll have a Saturday update on the blog’s Facebook page with final results Sunday!

Metallica Through The Never Box Office Prediction

It’s not just pop stars and boy bands that get concert films as Metallica Through the Never opens in wide-ish release this Friday. The pic features the legendary rockers performing while a subplot stars Chronicle actor Dane DeHaan as a roadie. It sounds like an interest concept for a movie and, so far, critical reaction has been very positive.

Still, it’s opening on a small 650 screens and this is certainly an example of a pic which will have a niche audience… namely, die-hard Metallica fans. I don’t see it getting much past the $3 million opening mark and I’ll say it doesn’t quite get there.

Metallica Through the Never opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million

For my prediction on Gravity, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/gravity-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Runner Runner, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/runner-runner-box-office-prediction/

 

Runner Runner Box Office Prediction

The “Suit&Tie” man and the future Batman team up for Runner Runner from Lincoln Lawyer director Brad Furman, opening Friday. Justin Timberlake is having about the best year you can imagine on the music charts and Ben Affleck saw his directorial effort Argo win Best Picture at the Oscars. He went on to receive loads of publicity (not all positive) when he was cast as Batman in the upcoming summer 2015 pic.

While this thriller set in the world of online poker certainly has famous faces populating it, I’m not sure that’ll translate to good box office. 20th Century Fox is certainly hoping the film’s gross “mirrors” JT’s music popularity, but the studio may want to “take back the night” they decided to open this against Gravity. That film will likely “TKO” Runner Runner at the multiplexes. The pic has received mostly negative reviews so far and I simply don’t see it gaining much traction.

Let’s get to the prediction before I figure out a way to incorporate “Seniorita” into a bad pun, shall we?

Runner Runner opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million

For my prediction post on Gravity, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/gravity-box-office-prediction/

For my Metallica Through the Never prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/metallica-through-the-never-box-office-prediction/

Gravity Box Office Prediction

It’s got an incredible 98% rating on Rotten Tomatoes so far. It features Oscar winners Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. It’s directed by visionary filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron. The guy who’s directed the two top grossing pictures of all time, James Cameron, says it’s brilliant. The film is already being mentioned as not only being nominated for Best Picture, but possibly winning it.

This Friday comes Gravity, the eagerly awaited lost in space pic that seems primed for a healthy debut and a nice run in subsequent weekends. How big could it open? Well, it’s got a few things in its favor. I would imagine a lot of moviegoers will choose to see it in 3D Imax where tickets prices will be higher. Gravity has a brief 90 minute run time which allows more showings per theater.

The figure $40 million has been thrown around for a debut and that is certainly possible. I’m predicting it’ll get mighty close to that figure, but not quite reach it. Still, Gravity should enjoy smallish declines weekend to weekend if the critical and awards buzz translates to audience members.

Gravity opening weekend prediction: $38.7 million

For my Runner Runner prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/runner-runner-box-office-prediction/

For my Metallica Through the Never prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/metallica-through-the-never-box-office-prediction/