This weekend at the box office, we could have a true three way battle for the top spot, with the Channing Tatum-Jamie Foxx action flick White House Down and the Sandra Bullock-Melissa McCarthy buddy cop comedy The Heat vying for #1 against the second weekend of Monsters University.

I think it’ll be a close race. You can find my detailed analysis predicting The Heat‘s opening here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/24/the-heat-box-office-prediction/

And you can read my post regarding White House Down here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/23/white-house-down-box-office-prediction/

Ultimately, I feel Monsters will retain its #1 standing, but just barely. If any of the three titles end up first, it wouldn’t surprise me (you can see how close I’ve got it). Rounding out the top five, World War Z and Man of Steel are likely to lose more than half of their audience from last weekend. And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Monsters University

Predicted Gross: $45.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

2. The Heat

Predicted Gross: $44.7 million

3. White House Down

Predicted Gross: $40.3 million

4. World War Z

Predicted Gross: $29.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

5. Man of Steel

Predicted Gross: $20.2 million (representing a drop of 51%)

We’ve seen countless male buddy cop comedies over the last few decades, but this weekend at the box office, we have something different. Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy headline the female buddy cop comedy The Heat, from Bridesmaids director Paul Feig.

The picture was pushed back from its original April release date to a higher profile June summer slot. That’s actually a good sign that the studio is confident they have a hit on their hands. They’re probably right.

With a modest reported $43 million budget, The Heat features the very well-liked Bullock and McCarthy, who is on fire at the box office right now. In February, McCarthy’s Identity Thief (which received mostly negative reviews) debuted to a fantastic $34.5 million. It would stand to reason that this film, with its added star power of Bullock, would debut above that.

Another feather in the cap: this is just about the only title out there targeting a female audience. That worked out beautifully for May’s The Great Gatsby, which scored a $50 million debut. The prospect of The Heat reaching that number is certainly possible.

Ultimately, I feel it will debut somewhere between Thief and Gatsby. We have a very real race between whether this or the weekend’s other newcomer, White House Down, debuts higher. My prediction for its competitor can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/23/white-house-down-box-office-prediction/

I believe girl power will win out over Mr. Tatum and Mr. Foxx over the weekend. By my prediction, The Heat will outdo its own budget in its first weekend.

The Heat opening weekend prediction: $44.7 million

It’s Django and Magic Mike teaming up in the action flick White House Down, which comes to us just three months after Olympus Has Fallen. That film featured a nearly identical plot (White House under siege) and also a smaller budget and less star power. Olympus was a surprise critical and commercial success, grossing a way better than expected $98 million domestically.

The question is: will audiences be eager to line up for something they’ve already seen so recently? White House Down does have the advantage of Tatum and Foxx, two actors coming off recent 2012 blockbusters. Tatum is the secret service agent and Foxx is POTUS. Its had a decent marketing campaign and was featured prominently during the recent NBA Finals. There’s also director Roland Emmerich, who is a master of blowing stuff up real good. His previous features include Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow, and 2012.

On the flip side, there’s the very real competition factor. World War Z debuted well above expectations with $66 million and should have decent grosses in its sophomore frame. Man of Steel will be in its third weekend. Both titles are direct competitors.

I can see White House Down debuting as low as in the $25 million dollar range, which would be very disappointing. Being that World War Z grossed $66M (an entire $23M above my projection), I’m hesitant to put a ceiling on Down‘s gross. Honestly though, I feel anything above $50 million would be pretty surprising. In a normal summer, WHD might feel like an event picture with the pedigree involved. After two months of Tony Stark, Kirk and Spock, Superman, and Brad Pitt fighting zombies, this movie almost looks a little small potatoes. This is a tough one, but at the end of the day, I’m predicting White House Down does respectable if unspectacular numbers and just breaks above the $40M mark.

White House Down opening prediction: $40.3 million

Well, I was 1 for 2 as far as new releases at the box office this weekend as Pixar’s Monsters University took the top spot and World War Z had a much bigger than expected opening.

Monsters University had the second largest Pixar opening after 2010’s Toy Story 3 with an estimated opening weekend of $82 million. My prediction? $82.1 million! Gold star! Clearly, family audiences were ready to embrace the prequel to the 2001 original.

Brad Pitt scored the biggest opening of his career as the zombie thriller World War Z exceeded forecasts with an impressive $66 million. I only projected for $43.8M. Oops. A lot of the pre-buzz involving Z was negative with stories about budgets overruns and reshoots. Positive reviews and a shrewd marketing campaign helped turn that buzz around and audiences responded.

Man of Steel took the three spot in its second weekend with $41.2 million, dipping below my $47.7M projection. Rounding out the top five, This Is the End was fourth with $13M (higher than $11.3M projection) and Now You See Me was fifth with $7.8M (above my $6.5M projection).

I’ll have projections up for next weekend’s openers, White House Down and The Heat, up soon… stay tuned!

Pixar gets in on the summer action with the prequel Monsters University, which is bound to open atop the box office this weekend. Earlier this week, I wrote my post with my prediction for it:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/17/monsters-university-box-office-prediction/

The weekend’s other new release is a bit of a question mark – the zombie action flick World War Z starring Brad Pitt. Once again, my detailed analysis outlining my forecast can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/17/world-war-z-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, it will be fascinating to see how Man of Steel performs in its second weekend. It had the biggest June opening of all time and audiences generally seem to like it. Critics were much more mixed. Films that open as large as Steel usually suffer drops in the 60% range and I really see no reason why this won’t. Still – Warner Bros. can’t get a sequel for this out fast enough.

Rounding out the top five, I expect This is The End and Now You See Me to drop in the forties range. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Monsters University

Predicted Gross: $82.1 million

2. Man of Steel

Predicted Gross: $47.7 million (representing a drop of 59%)

3. World War Z

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

4. This is The End

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Now You See Me

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Per usual, I’ll post updates on the Facebook page throughout the weekend with final results Sunday. Stay tuned for next week on the blog when I predict The Heat and White House Down.

It’s not a Pixar prequel set at a university, but this weekend’s other new release has its own share of monsters as well in the form of zombies with World War Z. Based on a 2006 bestseller, the zombie pandemic action extravaganza is headlined by Brad Pitt.

And truth be told – most of the buzz for a long time about the picture was not positive. Its budget reportedly bloated to $200 million dollars. Stories abounded about shooting going longer than expected, reshoots, and rewrites. The film was delayed from its original December 2012 release date. For a while, it looked like World War Z may qualify as a contender for a high-profile bomb.

In the last couple of weeks, however, an interesting occurrence happened. It was screened for critics. And the results have been positive. It currently sits at a solid 79% on Rotten Tomatoes.

So how will this translate to box office numbers? First, we have the competition factor. Man of Steel will be entering its second weekend and looks poised to post numbers north of $50 million in its sophomore frame. The movies are certainly going for the same demographic.

The question is: can World War Z outdo Man of Steel‘s second weekend numbers in its first weekend? It certainly could and a gross of over $50M wouldn’t surprise me. However, I’m going a little lower here. Reviews suggest Z might have decent legs in subsequent weeks, however.

World War Z opening weekend prediction: $43.8 million

The battle for top animated movie of the summer begins this weekend at the box office. The question is: will it be Monsters University or Despicable Me 2 that end up as 2013’s highest grossing kiddie pic?

Pixar gets first crack as Monsters University, a prequel to 2001’s Monsters Inc. It’s worth noting that 12 years is a long break between any follow-up film, even a successful animated feature. That’s why some are predicting Despicable Me 2 (where the well-received original came out just three years ago) might outdo University.

Monsters Inc. was the fourth Pixar title. Monsters University is the fourteenth. Let’s take a look at Pixar’s opening weekend during that time frame, shall we?

Monsters Inc. (2001): $62.5 million

Finding Nemo (2003): $70.2 million

The Incredibles (2004): $70.4 million

Cars (2006): $60.1 million

Ratatouille (2007): $47 million

Wall-E (2008): $63 million

Up (2009): $68.1 million

Toy Story 3 (2010): $110.3 million

Cars 2 (2011): $66.1 million

Brave (2012): $66.3 million

So where will Monsters University fall? Well, it’s highly unlikely to have the all-time Pixar opening weekend record. Toy Story 3 has that wrapped up. However, it’s got a great shot at #2. It would need to make just over $70 million for that designation and the film may well top $80 million. It’s certainly got a built-in audience, the revered Pixar name, and it is the only title out there marketing primarily towards the kid audience (Epic has grossed what it’s going to gross). A typical Pixar $70M gross wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m going on the high end with my prediction.

Monsters University opening weekend prediction: $82.1 million