Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

Man of Steel Box Office Prediction

As we enter a new week, one question will be bothering box office prognosticators like me: How big will Man of Steel open?

Zack Snyder’s take on the Superman story seems to have a lot going for it. For starters, the trailers for it have been terrific. Audience awareness of the film is through the roof. And… well, it’s Superman for goodness sake!

However, the Man of Steel’s track record at the box office underwent an interest journey just seven summers ago. Bryan Singer’s Superman Returns was supposed to be the beginning of a new Supes franchise. It didn’t work out that way. While the picture grossed a solid $84 million in its first five days, moviegoers and critics weren’t impressed with what they saw. Returns went on to gross $200 million domestically, less than its huge budget. The film was considered a box office disappointment.

Warner Bros. went back to the drawing board, bringing in 300 and Watchmen director Snyder. Relative unknown (but not for long) Henry Cavill is Superman/Clark Kent. While the lead may not be a big name, Man of Steel‘s supporting cast is populated with recognizable stars – Amy Adams, Michael Shannon, Kevin Costner, Diane Lane, Laurence Fishburne and Russell Crowe.

Folks seem to be excited about Man of Steel. Those effective trailers have been a plus. As I consider its opening weekend possibilities, the question seems to be: will it gross over $100 million the first weekend or not?

I believe it will. Frankly, anything below nine figures might be considered a letdown. It does come with a reported $225 million budget, after all. When the sixth Fast and Furious earns $120 million over four days, it stands to reason that Man of Steel could make similar bank in three. Somewhere in the $120M range seems like the best bet. There’s also the distinct possibility that it makes upwards of that number. Anything around $140 million and we’re talking Top Ten openings of all time. I’m skeptical it’ll reach that high and I’m more inclined to go a bit lower. However, as the week rolls along and anticipation grows, this could turn out to be a low ball figure.

With that, here’s my best guess:

Man of Steel opening weekend prediction: $124.3 million

We’ll see what happens! Tomorrow on the blog – my prediction for the week’s other newcomer, the all-star comedy This is the End.

Box Office Results: June 7-9

A shrewd marketing campaign propelled The Purge to a massive opening this weekend. The Ethan Hawke thriller, which cost only $3 million to make, took in $36.3 million (well above my generous $24.9M projection). The effective trailers clearly got audiences to the multiplex, but with a weak C Cinemascore grade, expect The Purge to experience a healthy decline next weekend.

Holdovers Fast and Furious 6 and Now You See Me both held up better than I predicted. Fast 6 was second with $19.8 million (my prediction: $16.4M) and Now You See Me was third with $19.5 million (my prediction: $15.8M).

Opening at fourth was the Owen Wilson/Vince Vaughn comedy The Internship with a just OK $18.1 million. I predicted a little higher at $20.7M. It’s not surprising that Internship posted rather weak numbers with its unfunny trailers. This will be no Wedding Crashers for sure.

A small weekend to weekend decline helped the animated Epic stay in the top five with a $12.1 million gross. I incorrectly had After Earth being fifth with $9.5 million. It actually grossed $11.2 million, but that was only good enough for seventh place.

Tonight on the blog – I will make my projection for a little flick called Man of Steel. Tomorrow – my projection for the all-star comedy This is the End. Stay tuned!

Box Office Predictions: June 7-9

Two new entries join the box office fray this weekend to compete with the third weekend of the massive sixth Fast&Furious pic and the second weekend of the surprise hit Now You See Me, as well as the Will Smith bomb After Earth.

I am predicting our two newcomers will open 1st and 2nd. With the Ethan Hawke thriller The Purge, I am predicting above expectations and sticking with it. My extensive blog post on that pic can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/the-purge-box-office-prediction/

Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson reunite for The Internship. I’m not expecting Wedding Crashers numbers, but am predicting a respectable opening. My full post outlining its prospects is available here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/the-internship-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, Fast&Furious 6 will likely not experience the over 60 percent drop it received its sophomore weekend after a mammoth opening. I look for it to dip a tad above 50%. Now You See Me opened #2 last weekend with a much bigger than anticipated $29 million. With solid word of mouth, this may not dip below 50%, which would be a terrific hold. And, lastly, the Will/Jaden Smith sci-fi flick After Earth debuted last weekend with a very disappointing $27 million. Pretty much all buzz since its opening has been highly negative. A major drop seems assured.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. The Purge

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. The Internship

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

3. Fast&Furious 6

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Now You See Me

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

5. After Earth

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 65%)

As always, I’ll have updates posted on the Facebook page this weekend and full results Sunday on the blog!

The Purge Box Office Prediction

I would say that even a month ago, The Purge was really on no one’s radar screen when talking about potentially successful summer flicks. That has changed.

The Ethan Hawke thriller comes with a very cool concept. Set in 2022, The Purge refers to a 24-hour period that takes place every year in which all crime, including murder, is legal. Hawke is the head of a family who are terrorized by those looking to punch their free crime card. This pic seems to have gained momentum just in the last couple of weeks with frequent TV spots. I will admit – the trailers and ads for The Purge are pretty damn effective.

Five summers ago, a similar title The Strangers opened to a robust $21 million. I certainly believe The Purge could post similar grosses. Films like this tend to do more than what most prognosticators go with, so I’m tempted to predict on the high end of expectations. Mr. Hawke had a nice size hit just last fall with Sinister, which opened with a more than expected $18 million.

The sudden surge of Purge could mean a #1 opening this weekend. I believe it will be a close race between this and the Owen Wilson/Vince Vaughn comedy The Internship. My prediction for that film can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/the-internship-box-office-prediction/

I’ve gone too low on too many similar titles and I won’t do it here. With that said:

The Purge opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million

I’ll have full predictions for this weekend’s top five later this week – stay tuned!

The Internship Box Office Prediction

Eight long summers ago, Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson struck box office gold with Wedding Crashers, which was the surprise hit of the season with $209 million domestically. Since then, the two actors have seen more flops than hits. Fred Claus? You, Me, and Dupree? The Dilemma? Drillbit Taylor? Hall Pass? The Watch?

You get the idea. So it makes perfect sense that the two stars would team up again to recapture some box office magic. The Internship features Vince and Owen as obsolete salesmen who are forced to start over at Google headquarters. It costars Rose Byrne, John Goodman, and maybe even a surprise actor or two…

The question is: will the reunion of these actors be enough to guarantee solid box office returns? My feeling is – if so, the marketing campaign surrounding the picture is not doing it any favors. I simply haven’t found the trailers to be very funny at all. Some of the humor displayed in the previews looks curiously outdated. And I find the decision of a PG-13 rating to be possibly troubling – Wedding Crashers, after all, is known for its R rated humor.

When The Internship was first announced, there may have been a feeling of excitement about the two leads teaming up again. That anticipation seems to have dissipated. There’s also what I feel will be a real competition for the top spot this weekend. The Ethan Hawke thriller The Purge seems to be running an effective marketing campaign and its numbers could be strong. My prediction post for that will be up either later tonight or tomorrow.

The Internship is an excellent example of a movie that could easily over or under perform. We could see a $30 million opening weekend. We could see a $12 million opening weekend. I think Vaughn and Wilson reunited is most likely to equal a high teens or low-twenties opening weekend.

The Internship opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million

Box Office Results: May 31-June 2

It’s certainly not every weekend that you can describe the box office results as truly shocking. However, this weekend… they were truly shocking. 

This is for two reasons: the over performance of Now You See Me and the under performance of After Earth. No one figured the caper flick Now You See Me had a chance of making more than Will Smith’s sci-fi pic After Earth. That’s precisely what happened.

We begin where we should though and that’s with Fast and Furious 6 remaining in the top spot with $35.1 million, a tad below my $36M projection. The sixth F+F installment experienced a sophomore weekend decline right in line with other entries in the franchise.

This brings us to #2… Now You See Me. And that would be an epic failure of predicting on my part. I grossly underestimated the picture and predicted it’d open sixth with $14.2 million. Boy, was I wrong. Garnering a rock solid A- Cinemascore average, See Me took the runner-up spot with an impressive $29.3 million. Audiences clearly were in the mood for something original and different and this seemed to be just the ticket.

And now to the enormous failure of After Earth. The M. Night Shyamalan directed sci-fi pic starring Will and Jaden Smith earned brutal reviews and, as it turns out, audience ambivalence. I incorrectly figured Smith’s star power would propel the film to a #1 opening and a $39.1 million opening weekend. Again… boy, was I wrong! Placing third, Earth debuted with a very weak $27.5 million. Earning a tepid B Cinemascore grade, expect Earth to fade fast in subsequent weekends.

Star Trek Into Darkness took fourth with $16.7 million, edging out fifth place Epic at $16.6 million. I predicted a bit more for each at $18.5M and $17.7M, respectively. And continuing its disappointing results in sixth place was The Hangover Part III, which made $16.3 million in its sophomore weekend (I predicted $17.1M).

RECAP

Fast and Furious 6

Gross: $35.1 million. Todd’s Prediction: $36 million.

Now You See Me

Gross: $29.3 million. Todd’s Prediction: $14.2 million.

After Earth

Gross: $27.5 million. Todd’s Prediction: $39.1 million.

Epic

Gross: $16.6 million. Todd’s Prediction: $17.7 million.

Star Trek Into Darkness

Gross: $16.7 million. Todd’s Prediction: $18.5 million.

The Hangover Part III

Gross: $16.3 million. Todd’s Prediction: $17.1 million.

So there you have it – not a great weekend for me predicting the new openers at all. I’ll try to do better next weekend. Tomorrow on the blog, I’ll have my opening weekend prediction for the Vince Vaughn/Owen Wilson comedy The Internship. Tuesday, my opening prediction for The Purge starring Ethan Hawke. And Wednesday, my usual Top Five predictions. Stay tuned!

Todd’s Box Office Predictions: My Blog History So Far…

***UPDATED: With this particular blog post, I will updating it every week to reflect how I continue to perform with each weekend’s new release. So that means you can pretty much ignore the next paragraph talking about After Earth and Now You See Me opening. Simply scroll down to the main list below to see how I’m doin’ with the predictin’:

With this weekend’s debuts of After Earth and Now You See Me, they will mark the 69th and 70th films I’ve made opening weekend predictions for. This is since I started doing box office projections on the blog starting during the second weekend of November when Skyfall debuted.

Based on a suggestion from a reader, it got me thinking. How have I done so far? I am grateful and pleased that my box office predictions posts have been the most-viewed items on my little blog, so it feels time to take inventory on my successes… and failures.

Before I give you the facts, it’s important to note that the bigger a picture opens, the easier it is to be off by more. Pretty simple concept… if I think a movie will open at $6 million, the chances of it doing $4M or $8M is very likely. This means I’m only off $2 million. If a movie is expected to open around $80 million, the chances of it doing $70M or $90M increase, meaning I’m ten million off.

With that said, I’ve broken down categories by how much I was off. You can judge yourself on how I’ve done up to this juncture. From now on, I will give a monthly report on the blog assessing my prognosticating performances for that time frame.

Predictions Within $2 million

Playing for Keeps

Prediction: $7M. Actual Gross: $5.8M. Difference: $1.2M

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Prediction: $84.8M. Actual Gross: $84.6M. Difference: $182K.

Jack Reacher

Prediction: $17.6M. Actual Gross: $15.6M. Difference: $2M.

The Impossible

Prediction: $2.6M. Actual Gross: $2.8M. Difference: $268K.

Promised Land

Prediction: $4.2M. Actual Gross: $4M. Difference: $150K.

Parker

Prediction: $6.1M. Actual Gross: $7M. Difference: $908K.

Movie 43

Prediction: $5.8M. Actual Gross: $4.8M. Difference: $994K.

Warm Bodies

Prediction: $20.5M. Actual Gross: $20.4M. Difference: $146K.

Stand Up Guys

Prediction: $1.2M. Actual Gross: $1.5M. Difference: $286K.

Safe Haven

Prediction: $32.3M. Actual Gross: $33.3M. Difference: $1M

Snitch

Prediction: $13.3M. Actual Gross: $13.2M. Difference: $132K.

Phantom

Prediction: $2.3M. Actual Gross: $470K. Difference: $1.7M.

Jack the Giant Slayer

Prediction: $25.4M. Actual Gross: $27.2M. Difference: $1.8M.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation

Prediction: $49.5M. Actual Gross: $51M. Difference: $1.5M.

Dead Man Down

Prediction: $5.9M. Actual Gross: $5.3M. Difference: $554K.

Spring Breakers

Prediction: $6.8M. Actual Gross: $4.9M. Difference: $1.9M.

The Croods

Prediction: $44.3M. Actual Gross: $43.6M. Difference: $660K.

Admission

Prediction: $7.6M. Actual Gross: $6.2M. Difference: $1.4M.

Iron Man 3

Prediction: $172.4M. Actual Gross: $174.1M. Difference: $1.7M.

Summing up this group, that makes 19 out of 68 (28%) that I got within two million dollars of opening weekend gross. I must admit my feather in the cap moments would be The Hobbit, The Croods, Iron Man 3, Warm Bodies, Snitch, and G.I. Joe. The Rock’s Snitch is my best to date with a difference of $132,000.

Predictions within $2.1-$4 million

Lincoln

Prediction: $18.1M. Actual Gross: $21M. Difference: $2.9M.

Killing Them Softly

Prediction: $9.6M. Actual Gross: $6.8M. Difference: $2.8M.

Gangster Squad

Prediction: $20.7M. Actual Gross: $17.1M. Difference: $3.6M.

Bullet to the Head

Prediction: $8M. Actual Gross: $4.5M. Difference: $3.4M.

Side Effects

Prediction: $11.5M. Actual Gross: $9.3M. Difference: $2.1M.

Dark Skies

Prediction: $10.6M. Actual Gross: $8.2M. Difference: $2.4M.

The Last Exorcism II

Prediction: $10.6M. Actual Gross: $7.7M. Difference: $2.8M.

Olympus Has Fallen

Prediction: $27.8M. Actual Gross: $30.4M. Difference: $2.5M.

Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor

Prediction: $19.2M. Actual Gross: $21.6M. Difference: $2.4M.

42

Prediction: $24.7M. Actual Gross: $27.5M. Difference: $2.7M.

Pain and Gain

Prediction: $23.8M. Actual Gross: $20M. Difference: $3.8M.

The Big Wedding

Prediction: $11.2M. Actual Gross: $7.5M. Difference: $3.6M.

Epic

Prediction: $45.5M. Actual Gross: $42.8M. Difference: $2.6M.

The Internship

Prediction: $20.7M. Actual Gross: $17.3M. Difference: $3.3M.

This category represents 13 out of 68 entries or 19%. I was happy with my Olympus Has Fallen and 42 predictions. I guessed higher than many others on both titles. Both made more than my projection, but I was in the correct ballpark.

Predictions within $4.1-$7 million

Skyfall

Prediction: $82.3M. Actual Gross: $88.4M. Difference: $6.1M.

Life of Pi

Prediction: $24.4M. Actual Gross: $30.6M. Difference: $6.1M.

This Is 40

Prediction: $15.7M. Actual Gross: $11.6M. Difference: $4.1M.

The Guilt Trip

Prediction: $11.6M. Actual Gross: $7.3M. Difference: $4.2M.

Zero Dark Thirty

Prediction: $29.1M. Actual Gross: $24.4M. Difference: $4.7M.

Texas Chainsaw 3D

Prediction: $16.1M. Actual Gross: $21.7M. Difference: $5.6M.

The Last Stand

Prediction: $14M. Actual Gross: $7.2M. Difference: $6.7M.

Broken City

Prediction: $15.3M. Actual Gross: $9M. Difference: $5.7M.

Hansel&Gretel: Witch Hunters

Prediction: $13M. Actual Gross: $19.7M. Difference: $6.6M.

Escape from Planet Earth

Prediction: $14.2M. Actual Gross: $21.1M. Difference: $6.9M.

The Incredible Burt Wonderstone

Prediction: $16.3M. Actual Gross: $10.2M. Difference: $6.1M.

The Host

Prediction: $15.7M. Actual Gross: $10.6M. Difference: $5M.

Jurassic Park 3D

Prediction: $12.8M. Actual Gross: $18.6M. Difference: $5.8M.

Evil Dead

Prediction: $19.8M. Actual Gross: $25.8M. Difference: $5.9M.

Oblivion

Prediction: $32.8M. Actual Gross: $38.2M. Difference: $5.4M.

Observations: I gave way too much credit for Arnold Schwarzenegger’s comeback vehicle The Last Stand, as well as comedies This Is 40 and The Guilt Trip. I underestimated Leatherface, Evil Dead, and Hansel and Gretel doing their witch huntin’. This group of films is 15 out of the 68 predictions… 22%. By the way, if you’re reading these and thinking my math doesn’t add up in certain situations, it actually does when factoring in the full number. I’m not listing the exact dollar amount – just to the closet one hundred thousandth.

Predictions within $7.1-$10M

Red Dawn

Prediction: $14M. Actual Gross: $21.7M. Difference: $7.7M.

Monsters Inc. 3D

Prediction: $16.2M. Actual Gross: $6.3M. Difference: $9.9M.

A Haunted House

Prediction: $10.8M. Actual Gross: $18.1M. Difference: $7.3M.

A Good Day to Die Hard

Prediction: $45.6M. Actual Gross: $36.9M. Difference: $8.7M.

Beautiful Creatures

Prediction: $19.4M. Actual Gross: $11.5M. Difference: $7.9M.

21 and Over

Prediction: $18 million. Actual Gross: $8.8M. Difference: $9.2M.

Oz the Great and Powerful

Prediction: $87.4M. Actual Gross: $79.1M. Difference: $8.2M.

The Call

Prediction: $9.2M. Actual Gross: $17.1M. Difference: $7.9M.

Scary Movie 5

Prediction: $22.6M. Actual Gross: $14.2M. Difference: $8.4M.

The Great Gatsby

Prediction: $41.3M. Actual Gross: $50.1M. Difference: $8.7M.

The Purge

Prediction: $24.9M. Actual Gross: $34M. Difference: $9.1M.

Definitely didn’t give Halle Berry’s The Call or A Haunted House with Marlon Wayans enough credit at all. Gave the sputtering Die Hard franchise too much credit. And while I was $8M off on Oz the Great and Powerful, I was actually pretty pleased with that projection. This group is 10 out of the 68 predictions, or 15%.

Predictions within $10.1-$15 million

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2

Prediction: $153.8M. Actual Gross: $141.1M. Difference: $12.7M.

Parental Guidance

Prediction: $17.7M. Actual Gross: $29.6M. Difference: $11.9M.

Mama

Prediction: $18.2M. Actual Gross: $32.1M. Difference: $13.9M.

Identity Thief

Prediction: $22.1M. Actual Gross: $34.6M. Difference: $12.4M.

Tyler Perry Presents Peeples

Prediction: $18.5M. Actual Gross: $4.6M. Difference: $13.8M.

Fast&Furious 6

Prediction: $106.8M. Actual Gross: $117M. Difference: $10.2M.

After Earth

Prediction: $39.1M. Actual Gross: $27.5M. Difference: $11.5M.

Clearly, Identity Thief and Mama hit bigger than I thought they would. And I was simply way off with Peeples, which I figured would have a nice opening due to Tyler Perry’s name in the title. Wrong. This group is 6 out of the 68 titles – 9%.

Predictions within $15.1-$20 million

Django Unchained

Prediction: $44.6M. Actual Gross: $64M. Difference: $19.4M.

The Hangover Part III

Prediction: $77.4M. Actual Gross: $62M. Difference: $15.3M.

Now You See Me

Prediction: $14.2M. Actual Gross: $29.3M. Difference: $15.1M.

Two titles here – or 3%. I failed the Christmas box office predictions and went way under. This is what screwed my Django projection. And The Wolf Pack were even softer than I expected.

Predictions off by over $20 million

Rise of the Guardians

Prediction: $53.8M. Actual Gross: $32.3M. Difference: $21.5M.

Les Miserables

Prediction: $47.1M. Actual Gross: $67.4M. Difference: $20.3M.

Star Trek Into Darkness

Prediction: $106.2. Actual Gross: $83.7M. Difference: $22.4M.

So the return of Kirk and Spock marks my most inaccurate prediction so far, but I don’t even feel bad about it because everyone went way over on this one. Les Miserables, like Django, is an example of underestimating a Xmas opener. And Rise of the Guardians flat out didn’t reach the levels of most animated titles, though it did hold up well in subsequent weekends. Three of 68 in this final category – 4%.

This means that of the 68 opening weekend predictions, I got 47% within $4 million or less of the actual gross. Within $7 million – the number is 69%. Within $10 million – I’m at 84%.

So there you have it. Draw your own conclusions. And if you’ve made it all the way through lengthy post, allow me to plug http://www.boxofficeace.com – a site I happily participate on where you (yes YOU) can make your own predictions!

Box Office Predictions: May 31-June 2

The post Memorial Day box office weekend sees the release of two new titles, the Will/Jaden Smith sci-fi pic After Earth and the caper film Now You See Me. Earlier this week, I wrote posts predicting both openings:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/27/after-earth-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/now-you-see-me-box-office-prediction/

My After Earth prediction of $39.1 million raises the following question: will it open #1 this weekend? Last holiday weekend saw the massive debut of Fast&Furious 6. Depending on how big it drops, it could retain the top spot. The previous five entries in the franchise all dipped a consistent 59-63% in their sophomore frames. It stands to reason that FF6 would experience a similar decline and may drop a tad more because it opened so huge.

The Hangover Part III had a very disappointing opening and its second weekend shouldn’t be too great either. The franchise has clearly run out of steam. The animated Epic had a solid opening last weekend and should experience the smallest decline of any title. And, finally, Star Trek Into Darkness will probably lose about half its audience in its third weekend.

With that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. After Earth

Predicted Gross: $39.1 million

2. Fast&Furious 6

Predicted Gross: $36 million (representing a drop of 65%)

3. Star Trek Into Darkness

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. Epic

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. The Hangover Part III

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 59%)

This would leave Now You See Me debuting at #6 with my predicted opening of $14.2 million. As always, check back over the weekend on the Facebook page for early returns and Sunday on the blog for final results.

Now You See Me Box Office Prediction

Along with After Earth, which opens Friday, the caper film Now You See Me represents the first of the summer flicks that is an original story. It’s not based on a comic book, a novel, a TV show, and it’s not a sequel! Pretty rare for a May release, I must say. By the way, I’ve already done my After Earth prediction on the blog and it can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/27/after-earth-box-office-prediction/

Now You See Me comes from director Louis Leterrier, who made the Transporter pictures and 2008’s The Incredible Hulk. It’s about a team of magicians who also do bank heists. Now features a cast of several recognizable faces, including Jesse Eisenberg, Mark Ruffalo, Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher, Morgan Freeman, and Michael Caine… none of whom have a proven track record of opening a picture whatsoever.

The film is a rather curious choice for a late May release and a bit of a gamble from Summit Entertainment. It comes with a reported $70 million budget, which isn’t anywhere near Iron Man, Star Trek, or Fast&Furious levels – but it’s still not small potatoes. I actually think it looks like it could be a lot of fun and I dig the cast, but I’m not sure this will get audiences to the multiplex. It has the feel of a “wait until DVD” title and while it’s been decently marketed, nothing about this shouts Event Movie… you know, like pretty much everything else out right now.

As I see it, if Now You See Me grosses above $20 million – that should be considered a victory. I am more inclined to predict a low to mid teens opening. If it gets decent reviews, perhaps it’ll have legs in future weekends.

Now You See Me opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million

That’s all for now. Tomorrow, I’ll make my predictions for next weekend’s Top Five.

After Earth Box Office Prediction

After Earth will go quite a ways towards answering this question at the box office over the weekend: how bankable is Will Smith anymore?

This is a very open question. The Fresh Prince has kept a relatively low-profile over the past few years. His only high-profile summer pic since 2008’s Hancock was last summer’s Men in Black 3. It earned $179 million domestically – not a bad number, but also the lowest of the trilogy. Smith had an incredible run from 1996 to 2008 where four of his films (Independence Day, Men in Black, I Am Legend, Hancock) earned over $200 million and seven others crossed the $100 million mark.

After Earth does not have the advantage of being a sequel or being based on a known property. The trailers, in my opinion, have been unimpressive. Earth features the actor costarring with his son, Jaden. The younger Smith had a giant hit of his own two years ago with the Karate Kid remake, produced by his dad. The story is based on Will’s original idea and is directed by M. Night Shyamalan. At one time, the fact that M. Night is behind the camera would have been a selling point for the studio. Those days have passed and I wrote an extensive post just yesterday focused on Shyamalan’s career:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/25/the-rise-and-fall-of-m-night-shyamalan/

So – let’s get to the prediction, shall we? As I see it, anything above a $50 million opening should be considered a nice surprise for all involved here. I just don’t see that happening and I’m not seeing enough in the marketing campaign to justify that prediction. A better question is whether After Earth reaches $40 million. And I’m not even sure of that.

There’s a big part of me that wants to project a low-30s opening here. However, I’m going to give Smith a little bit of credit here with his ability to open a science fiction picture. This is a tough one and I could see this falling anywhere between $30-$50 million. Neither extreme would shock me. I may regret this, but I will say:

After Earth opening weekend prediction: $39.1 million

That’s all for now. Check back tomorrow for my opening weekend projection for Now You See Me, which also debuts Friday. On Wednesday, I’ll predict next weekend’s top five, including projections for how Fast and Furious 6, The Hangover Part III, and Epic hold up in their sophomore frames.

**Update: my opening weekend prediction for Now You See Me can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/now-you-see-me-box-office-prediction/