Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty Box Office Prediction

One of the big question marks entering into the crowded Christmas holiday season is how The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will perform at the box office.

Ben Stiller directs and stars in the fantasy themed drama, which is loosely based on a 1947 Danny Kaye picture of the same name. Walter Mitty has been in development for nearly two decades. During that time period, various directors and actors were attached to the project including Steven Spielberg, Ron Howard, Gore Verbinski, Jim Carrey, Owen Wilson, Mike Myers, and Sacha Baron Cohen. Eventually it turned into a vehicle for Mr. Stiller, making his first directorial effort since 2008’s Tropic Thunder. Kristin Wiig and Sean Penn are among the costars.

At one time, Mitty was seen as a potential awards contender but the reviews have ended that prospect. The pic has generated mixed reviews and stands at a troubling 42% on Rotten Tomatoes. As has become a theme in my Christmas box office predictions, the high amount of competition is a factor in my estimate. This picture is going for an adult audience and there’s The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle out there. Those seeking a film with comedic elements may look to Anchorman 2 or Grudge Match. There’s also Saving Mr. Banks, which I anticipate will perform well in its second weekend after a rather soft debut. This all leads to me to believe that Mitty, coupled with its middling reviews, could get somewhat lost in the holiday shuffle.

I’m not convinced the pic’s marketing campaign has been successful in drawing significant audience interest for it. Mitty may struggle to reach $20 million over the five-day holiday time period.

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty box office prediction: $11.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $19.3 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on The Wolf of Wall Street, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Grudge Match, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on 47 Ronin, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Justin Bieber’s Believe, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

The Wolf of Wall Street Box Office Prediction

This Christmas brings an onslaught of five new pictures debuting and we begin with Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. This three hour comedy/drama (it’s the director’s longest film, beating out GoodFellas) stars Marty’s favorite collaborator Leonardo DiCaprio as well as Jonah Hill and Matthew McConaughey. It’s received positive reviews, has had a robust marketing campaign (especially with its awesome first trailer), and looks poised to make some noise over the holiday season.

Originally scheduled to premiere in mid-November, Wolf was switched to December 25th and it certainly does face more competition. American Hustle (which had a solid $19M debut) is going after the same audience in its second weekend. Still, I expect this to have a healthy debut over its five-day rollout.

Last year, adult-oriented pics Les Miserables and Django Unchained made a killing over their Christmas openings. Miserables earned $67 million over six days (Christmas was a Tuesday last year) while Django took in $64 million. With one less day and more competition, I don’t expect Wolf to go that high but its grosses should still impress. Its long running time means less showings but that should only be a small impediment.

I foresee a five-day debut in the 40s and a Merry Christmas indeed for Scorsese and company.

The Wolf of Wall Street opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $44.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction of The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-secret-life-of-walter-mitty-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction of Grudge Match, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction of 47 Ronin, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction of Justin Bieber’s Believe, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: December 20-22

In a result that surprised yours truly, Ron Burgundy and company couldn’t dislodge Gandalf and company from the top spot at the box office in this crowded pre-holiday weekend.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug remained #1 for the second week in a row with an estimated $31.4 million – exactly on target with my $31.5M projection. Peter Jackson’s middle chapter in the franchise has earned $127.5M in its ten days of release.

This left Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues in the two spot and well below my projected opening. The sequel to the 2004 original made $26.7 million over the Friday to Sunday frame and $40 million since its Wednesday debut. I had it earning $41.9M and $61.2M, respectively, over those time periods. While the opening is decent, this is clearly below my overzealous expectations. Furthermore, audiences seem a bit disappointed with what they’re seeing as they awarded it a B Cinemascore grade, which is rather low.

There was a virtual tie for the #3 spot as Disney’s Frozen took in $19.1 million. I incorrectly had it left out of the top five. Oops. The animated pic has earned $191.5M since its November premiere. David O. Russell’s American Hustle also made $19.1 million, just under my $20.5M projection. This is a solid debut for the critically lauded comedy/drama and its per-screen average was almost identical to that of the Anchorman sequel.

Coming in fifth but well below my estimate was Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks. It started out of the gate rather slowly with $9.3 million, way under my $17.1M projection. Banks will count on very low drop-offs over the next few weekends and the chances of that are good with its A Cinemascore grade.

Finally, the animated 3D tale Walking with Dinosaurs was a huge disappointment with an 8th place opening at $7.3 million. I predicted it would earn $18.9M. Oops again. Family audiences are still choosing Frozen over this new offering.

Today on the blog – you’ll see the movie marketplace getting even more crowded as I’ll post predictions for all five features opening Christmas Day: The Wolf of Wall Street, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, and the Justin Bieber doc Believe. Stay tuned!

Box Office Predictions: December 20-22

As the Christmas season approaches, four high profile pictures enter the marketplace with another five scheduled on Christmas Day. This weekend it’s Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, American Hustle, Saving Mr. Banks, and Walking with Dinosaurs.

You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/anchorman-2-the-legend-continues-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/saving-mr-banks-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/american-hustle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/walking-with-dinosaurs-box-office-prediction/

If Anchorman 2 were to come in quite a bit below my projection, it could potentially face a battle with this weekend’s champ The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug for the #1 spot. However, I do believe Ron Burgundy and company will prevail. Last year in this same weekend, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell 56% from weekend #1 to #2 and I expect the roughly the same result for Smaug. As for the other three new entries, you’ll notice there’s only a $3.5 million difference between what I believe they’ll debut at. Therefore, these films could easily fluctuate between spots 3-5. Also if any of these newbies were to come in below my projections, it could allow Disney’s Frozen to remain in the top five. Got all that? We shall see how it shakes out, but here’s my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues

Predicted Gross: $41.9 million ($61.2 million Wednesday to Sunday)

2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $31.5 million (representing a drop of 57%)

3. American Hustle

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million

4. Walking with Dinosaurs

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

5. Saving Mr. Banks

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

 

As always, I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday.

Walking with Dinosaurs Box Office Prediction

For some of the little brothers who had to attend Disney’s Frozen with their little sisters, this weekend’s Walking with Dinosaurs could provide an opportunity for revenge.

Based on a BBC miniseries, this animated tale will be shown in 2D and 3D and its concept is pretty simple… CG dinosaurs, dude. Distributed by 20th Century Fox, the studio is certainly hoping Dinosaurs appeals to family audiences over the holiday frame. It’s worth noting that Frozen is still making money, but it’s really the only competition this title faces with the possible exception of Saving Mr. Banks.

Animated features are often difficult to predict and Walking with Dinosaurs is no exception. It doesn’t have the pedigree of a Pixar behind it, but it’s trailers have been decent. I would think many youngsters interested in dinosaurs would be pressuring the ‘rents for a weekend trip to this one.

Walking with Dinosaurs has a decent shot at opening at #3 behind the Anchorman and Hobbit sequels. It could open as big as high 20s in my estimation (with a reported $85M budget, the studio would love that). Still I cannot shake the feeling that high teens to low 20s is more probable and that’s where I’m going prediction wise.

Walking with Dinosaurs opening weekend prediction: $18.9 million

For my Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/anchorman-2-the-legend-continues-box-office-prediction/

For my American Hustle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/american-hustle-box-office-prediction/

For my Saving Mr. Banks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/saving-mr-banks-box-office-prediction/

American Hustle Box Office Prediction

With Oscar buzz, an all-star cast, and a hot director – American Hustle bursts into theaters this Friday. It also faces stiff competition from the Anchorman sequel and another awards contender Saving Mr. Banks.

Hustle is the latest project from David O. Russell, who’s last two directorial features have led to Best Picture nominations, seven acting nominations, and three victories. Those films were 2010’s The Fighter and 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook. This crime drama/comedy features alum from both of those pictures – Christian Bale and Amy Adams from Fighter and Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, and Robert De Niro from Silver Linings Playbook. Double Oscar nominee Jeremy Renner is also part of the gang.

With an impressive 95% on Rotten Tomatoes, Hustle could be the type of pic that has a decent opening and displays strong legs into January. However, it will face direct competition just five days after its opening with the debut of Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. Audience reaction to Hustle will be key to how well it holds up in future weekends with the amount of competition it’ll be up against.

As I see it, the low mark for its opening could be in the mid teens. I have a feeling, though, it could premiere in the $20M range. Its marketing campaign has been robust and its stars are well-regarded (doesn’t hurt that Lawrence is headlining the wildly popular Hunger Games franchise). And the awards attention can only help.

Many prognosticators are predicting Saving Mr. Banks will debut higher than this over next weekend, but I’m going the opposite direction and believe Hustle will outshine it for now.

American Hustle opening weekend prediction: $20.5 million

For my Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/anchorman-2-the-legend-continues-box-office-prediction/

For my Saving Mr. Banks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/saving-mr-banks-box-office-prediction/

For my Walking with Dinosaurs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/walking-with-dinosaurs-box-office-prediction/

Saving Mr. Banks Box Office Prediction

Saving Mr. Banks is a product from Walt Disney Studios that focuses on the making of one of their beloved classics, 1964’s Mary Poppins. It stars Emma Thompson as author P.L. Travers and Tom Hanks as Walt Disney himself and comes from The Blind Side director John Lee Hancock. The supporting cast includes Colin Farrell and Paul Giamatti. Banks has earned Oscar buzz for Best Picture and for the performances of Ms. Thompson and Mr. Hanks.

With a reported budget of just a meager $35 million, this seems primed to have a nice run throughout the holiday season. Reviews have mostly been positive as it stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. With its recognizable stars and focus on a very well-known classic, Banks could play to adults and children alike.

The main question as far as its opening is whether Banks will start big out of the gate or be more of a slow burner with smallish drop-offs from weekend to weekend. My gut tells me that the latter is a better possibility. There is plenty of competition this weekend for adult moviegoers – Anchorman 2, American Hustle – and for younger audiences – The Hobbit in weekend #2, Walking with Dinosaurs.

If Banks earns over $20 million this weekend (which is certainly possible), that should be considered quite an accomplishment. My estimate puts it a bit below that, though I think future weekends should be kind to it.

Saving Mr. Banks opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million

For my Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/anchorman-2-the-legend-continues-box-office-prediction/

For my American Hustle prediction. click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/american-hustle-box-office-prediction/

For my Walking with Dinosaurs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/walking-with-dinosaurs-box-office-prediction/

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues Box Office Prediction

If Anchorman: The Legend Continues fails to have a solid opening, it certainly won’t be due to lack of exposure. Will Ferrell has been everywhere as title character Ron Burgundy over the past several weeks from Dodge Durango commercials to local North Dakota newscasts to the MTV Video Music Awards and more.

As you will recall, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in the summer of 2004 and grossed a very respectable $85 million. Since then, the film has taken on a life of its own becoming arguably the most quoted comedy of the past decade or two. It’s already earned a (deserved) reputation as a comedy classic.

For years, rumors of a sequel came and went. And now we’re here – with Ferrell, Steve Carell, Paul Rudd, David Koechner, and Christina Applegate back in the mix. There are also expected to be cameos galore – from Kanye West to Jim Carrey to Harrison Ford.

Simply put – Anchorman 2 is expected to be kind of a big deal. How big of a deal is the question. Anchorman 2 opens on Wednesday so I’ll be making a three and five day projection. It stands to reason that many fans of the original of which there’s many should be anxious to rush out and see the sequel.

What’s the opening weekend range we’re talking about? It’s tough to say. The absolute high mark I could foresee is a five-day gross in the neighborhood of $80 million. That would be an absolutely astonishing debut. I also can’t imagine the five-day haul being lower than $40 million, which would be considered pretty disappointing. As you can see, that’s a rather large range between potential grosses.

You also need to factor in the pre-Christmas weekend that Anchorman 2 is being released in. For many pictures released at this time, the opening weekend can be relatively lower than you might expect with subsequently smaller than normal drop-offs over the Christmas and New Year’s weekend. However, unlike American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks which open Friday, I expect a large portion of Ron Burgundy’s business to be front loaded.

With all that explanation – here’s the deal: this is not an easy prediction to make. It’s difficult to judge just how eagerly anticipated moviegoers really are for it. Media saturation has been high, the trailers have been effective, and the original is beloved.

Ultimately I am predicting Anchorman 2 falls in between the highs and lows I presented as possibilities.

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues opening weekend prediction: $41.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $61.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my Saving Mr. Banks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/saving-mr-banks-box-office-prediction/

For my American Hustle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/american-hustle-box-office-prediction/

For my Walking with Dinosaurs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/walking-with-dinosaurs-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: December 13-15

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t manage to reach the heights of its predecessor last year as it opened to $73.6 million over the weekend, below my $77.9M prediction. In my post about Smaug, I opined that anything below $75M would likely be considered a letdown and it must be noted that Smaug earned over $10M less than An Unexpected Journey did last year. We’ll see how it holds up over the next couple of weeks.

With a smaller than expected decline in weekend #3, Disney’s Frozen was second with $22.1 million, above my $17.1M estimate. The animated tale has earned $164 million so far and should eventually surpass $250M mark.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was the disappointing performance of Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas. Audiences interest in the character is clearly waning as Christmas posted the lowest opening of any pic in the franchise with $16 million. This is less than half of my generous $33.7M prediction. No Madea flick had made less than $25 million in their openings until now so this is a considerably weak debut for Mr. Perry and company.

Rounding out the top five: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at four with $13.1 million (just above my $12.3M prediction) and Thor: The Dark World at five with $2.7 million (just above my $2.5M projection).

Be sure to check the blog today as my predictions will roll in on Anchorman: The Legend Continues, Saving Mr. Banks, American Hustle, and Walking with Dinosaurs.

Box Office Predictions: December 13-15

Two very different sequels open this Friday at multiplexes and, collectively, I’m predicting they will inject over $110 million in business to the box office. We have The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas debuting and you can read my detailed posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/tyler-perrys-a-madea-christmas-box-office-prediction/

I would anticipate the top two of the past couple of weekends – Disney’s Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – to drop to third and fourth. In the five spot, I expect a bigger fall for this weekend’s #3 Out of the Furnace than the current #4 Thor: The Dark World. This should allow the Marvel property to just drop one place into fifth.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $77.9 million

2. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

3. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

I’ll have an update posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday!