Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas Box Office Prediction

The wizards and dragons of The Hobbit film series aren’t the only popular franchise characters returning to theaters during the second weekend of December 2013. Madea and company are back with Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, the fifth entry in the cash cow of a series.

Let’s take a trip down the Madea franchise lane with the openings of each picture:

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion (2006) – $30 million

Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (2009) – $41 million

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family (2011) – $25 million

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection (2012) – $25.3 million

As you can see, the openings of the last two pics have not been as big as the first two entries (though $25 million is still a strong performance, especially since they only cost around $20M to produce). I think there’s a decent chance that A Madea Christmas outperforms its two predecessors due to the timely holiday theme. While I have doubts it will reach the low 40s opening of Madea Goes To Jail, it stands a shot of having the second highest opening of the franchise so far. The Madea flicks generally do about 40 some percent of its business during opening weekend and I anticipate the front loaded trend will continue with this one.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million

For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug-box-office-prediction/

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug Box Office Prediction

Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, based on the works of Tolkien, is the second feature in the Hobbit trilogy that began at this time last year. Starring Martin Freeman, Benedict Cumberbatch, Ian McKellen, Orlando Bloom, Evangeline Lilly, wizards, dragons, and others – Smaug opens this Friday.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey took in $84.6 million in its opening weekend in 2012 (it was released during the same December weekend as Smaug). That opening set the all-time record for the month of December and it’s a number its follow-up will attempt to improve upon.

So the main question is: can Smaug set the record for December? I’m a bit skeptical. For starters, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey was not met with the universal acclaim that Jackson’s 2001-2003 Lord of the Rings trilogy received. Don’t get me wrong – Hobbit was a strong performer with that record setting debut and an eventual $303 million domestic gross. However, it is worth noting that all three Rings pics outperformed it.

One item in its favor: early reviews suggest that Smaug is better than its predecessor and that the pacing isn’t of the glacial quality that hindered Journey. This is a fairly tough prediction – it certainly wouldn’t shock me if Smaug opened larger than Journey. However, mixed reaction to Journey could lead to a slightly smaller opening. Anything below $75 million would be considered a bit of a letdown. I believe a debut in the late 70s/early 80s range is the most likely scenario.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug opening weekend prediction: $77.9 million

For my prediction on Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/tyler-perrys-a-madea-christmas-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: December 6-8

As predicted, Disney’s animated Frozen overtook The Hunger Games: Catching Fire for the top spot at the box office this weekend, but both titles earned a bit less than my estimates.

Frozen took in $31.6 million in its second weekend for #1, below my $34.8M prediction. Disney’s feature has made $134 million since its Thanksgiving opening. An eventual gross in the $250M range seems likely.

In weekend #3, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire dropped to second with an estimated $27 million, under my $32M prediction. This massive sequel has earned $336M since its debut and still looks on pace to become 2013’s highest grossing picture.

Out of the Furnace, the crime thriller with Christian Bale, flopped with only $5.3 million for third place. I gave it a bit too much credit with a $9.6M prediction. Rounding out the top five: Thor: The Dark World in fourth with $4.7 million (just under my $5.2M estimate) and Delivery Man in fifth with $3.7 million (just over my $3.5M estimate).

Be sure to check the blog later when I’ll roll out my predictions for two very different sequels – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas.

Box Office Predictions: December 6-8

The post Thanksgiving box office weekend is usually a fairly sluggish one and there’s only one new title joining the fray – the Christian Bale crime thriller Out of the Furnace. You can read my full prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/01/out-of-the-furnace-box-office-prediction/

Unless it majorly underwhelms (which is somewhat possible), Furnace is pretty much assured the #3 spot for its debut. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen appear destined to duke it out for the #1 slot.

Catching Fire is entering its third weekend and post Thanksgiving blockbusters typically drop below 50% in December’s first weekend. For instance, 2011 and 2012’s Twilight entries dipped 60% in their third frames over the same weekend. Catching Fire may not drop quite that far, but it should be close.

On the other hand, Disney’s Frozen opened at #2 over Turkey Day weekend with the best opening for the holiday of all time. Its chances of not falling over 50% seem better and, if that happens, Frozen would catapault to first and Fire would fall to second.

Thor: The Dark World should be fourth in its fifth weekend while Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man and The Best Man Holiday should fight it out for the five spot. And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $34.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 57%)

3. Out of the Furnance

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

As always, I’ll have final results on the blog this Sunday!

Out of the Furnace Box Office Prediction

Christian Bale headlines an all-star cast in the crime thriller Out of the Furnace from Crazy Heart director Scott Cooper. It is the only wide release coming out during the first weekend of December where moviegoers could still be preoccupied with leftovers such as The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen.

Beside the Dark Knight himself, Furnace costars Casey Affleck, Woody Harrelson, Zoe Saldana, Forest Whitaker, and Willem Dafoe. Early reviews have mostly been positive (it currently sits at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes). There were some insiders who mentioned this pic for possible awards consideration though that talk has mostly fallen along the wayside. The marketing campaign has been fairly robust, but one has to wonder if audiences will rush out to see it.

A similar genre pic, Killing Them Softly with Brad Pitt, opened during the same weekend last year to highly disappointing results with only $6.8 million for its debut. That film also had mostly solid notices from critics. I believe Furnace will perform a bit better though it’s a legitimate question in my mind whether it reaches double digits or not. I’ll predict it doesn’t quite get there.

Out of the Furnance opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million

Box Office Results: Thanksgiving 2013

Thanks to a remarkable hold by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and a record setting debut by Disney’s Frozen, there was an extremely robust box office over the five-day holiday weekend.

Dipping only 52% from its monster debut, Catching Fire won the weekend earning $74.5 million over Friday to Sunday, easily outpacing my $56.8M projection. The sequel earned $110.2 million over the entire holiday frame and has taken in an astonishing $296 million in just ten days. Catching Fire is currently on pace to become 2013’s highest grossing title and should supplant the current winner Iron Man 3‘s $409 million domestic haul.

Disney’s Frozen now has the distinction of having the largest Thanksgiving opening of all time. It placed second with $66.7 million over Friday to Sunday and $93 million since its Wednesday debut (easily above my respective projections of $48.3M and $69.1M). With its A+ Cinemascore grade, expect Frozen to be a major player through the Christmas season.

Thor: The Dark World in its fourth weekend took in $11.1 million for third place, above my $9.5M estimate. In fourth, holdover The Best Man Holiday made $8.1 million in its third weekend, above my $7.1M projection.

Rounding out the top five is newcomer Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, debuting with middling results. The pic made $6.9 million over Friday to Sunday and $8.7 million over the five-day holiday frame. This is below my respective projections of $9.7M and $12.8M.

In sixth, Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man dipped just 12% in weekend two with $6.9 million (above my $5.5M projection). Seventh place belonged to The Book Thief, which expanded its theater count and grossed $4.8 million over Friday to Sunday (below my $5.6M estimate) and $6.5 million over the five-day frame (just below my $7.2M estimate).

Where I really went wrong for the holiday weekend was my prediction for Black Nativity, the ensemble musical starring Forest Whitaker, Jennifer Hudson, and others. I predicted it would have a #3 showing with a healthy $19.3 million over Friday to Sunday and $26.8 million over the five day holiday weekend. Boy, was I wrong. Nativity managed just $3.8 million over Friday to Sunday and $5 million over Wedensday to Sunday. Whoops.

In ninth was Philomena with Judi Dench which also expanded its screen count to the tune of $3.7 million for Friday to Sunday (I predicted $3.9M) and $4.7 million for the five day (I said $5.1M).

Rounding out the top ten was 12 Years a Slave with $3 million (I incorrectly didn’t have it in the top ten).

Finally, Spike Lee’s Oldboy with Josh Brolin totally bombed for a 17th place showing with only $850,000 for Friday to Sunday and $1.2 million for the five day. I gave it a bit too much credit with respective predictions of $2.4M and $3.5M.

And there’s your Thanksgiving results. I’ll have my prediction up on the blog later today for next weekend’s only newbie, Out of the Furnace with Christian Bale.

***Blogger’s note: Any hardcore and even casual fan of the movies is frankly stunned by the news out of Hollywood involving the untimely death of Paul Walker. Just this year, I took it upon myself to watch all of the entries in the Fast and Furious franchise. I haven’t finished yet, but I certainly came to appreciate the talents of Mr. Walker, not just in that series of movies, but in Varsity Blues, She’s All That, Running Scared, and others. May he rest in peace.

Box Office Predictions: Thanksgiving 2013

It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.

You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.

Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)

3. Black Nativity

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Homefront

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)

6. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. The Book Thief

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)

8. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)

9. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

10. Philomena

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)

This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.

I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!

Philomena Box Office Prediction

Last November, Dame Judi Dench was appearing as M for the last time in Skyfall, which turned out to be the biggest 007 pic of all time. A year later, Philomena may not be a massive box office juggernaut, but it is garnering solid reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and awards buzz.

The British drama, costarring Steve Coogan, expands to approximately 500 theaters after a successful limited roll out this past weekend. While the film itself is probably a long shot for a Best Picture nod, Dench’s chances of receiving her seventh Oscar nomination are high.

Philomena may present a welcome opportunity for adult audiences to catch something a little different over the Thanksgiving weekend and it should post fairly decent results in its expansion.

Philomena opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $5.1 million (Friday-to-Wednesday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For Black Nativity, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For Homefront, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For Oldboy, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

The Book Thief Box Office Prediction

20th Century Fox had designs on positioning Brian Percival’s The Book Thief as an Oscar contender but this has been hindered by very mixed reviews. The pic currently sits at only 49% on Rotten Tomatoes.

However, Thief has been posting solid numbers in limited release at the box office and it expands to roughly 1000 theaters over the Thanksgiving weekend. The film is based on a bestselling novel from Markus Zusak and the World War II era drama stars Geoffrey Rush, Emily Watson, and Sophie Nelisse. This past weekend, Thief earned a commendable $605,000 on only 70 screens.

I would expect The Book Thief to earn decent though unspectacular numbers in its upcoming expansion, but I don’t envision this being much of an awards contender at all.

The Book Thief opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $7.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For Black Nativity, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For Homefront, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For Oldboy, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

For Philomena, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Oldboy Box Office Prediction

Unless I’m really missing something here, Spike Lee’s Oldboy starring Josh Brolin and Samuel L. Jackson seems to be flying in way under the radar to an extent that I did not expect.

When this project was announced, this remake of a 2003 South Korean critically acclaimed cult favorite looked like it could be a high-profile fall release. However, Film District and Universal seem to have very little confidence in it. The marketing campaign has been muted and no mainstream reviews have been released at press time. If anything, its tepid marketing campaign reminds me of Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, another flick I thought would be more highly touted than it was. It ended up earning a paltry $7.8 million in its debut. Added to that, Oldboy is only being released on roughly 500 screens on Wednesday which will surely hinder its opening.

Add all that up and I’m not expecting a whole lot with Oldboy.

Oldboy opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $3.5 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)