Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

Avengers: Age of Ultron Box Office Prediction

The 2015 Summer Movie Season kicks off in grand fashion as Avengers: Age of Ultron debuts and looks to Hulk smash records. The mystery surrounding how it performs in its opening is centered on one question: will it have the biggest domestic debut in movie history? In order to do so, it’ll need to top the record currently held by its 2012 predecessor. That magic number is $207.4 million.

All the favorites are back, including director Joss Whedon with Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, Black Widow, Hulk, Hawkeye, and more returning. Newbies include James Spader voicing the title character villain and Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Elizabeth Olsen as Quicksilver and Scarlet Witch. There are two more Avengers features already planned for 2018 and 2019. While a number of reviews say it doesn’t quite match the original, its 80% Rotten Tomatoes rating is solid.

There is little doubt that Ultron is highly primed to become summer’s largest grosser. Whether or not it reaches the $623M eventual mark of The Avengers remains to be seen (that’s good for the 3rd biggest hit ever behind Avatar and Titanic).

Some prognosticators are estimating it may not quite reach the heights of 2012 in its opening. The floor would seem to be in the $180M range, which would be just fine but still $25M under the first. While that’s certainly possible, I do believe Ultron will debut with around the same number of its predecessor… and a bit higher. That means I’m predicting Ultron will set a new benchmark in the category of all-time record openings and Disney and Marvel will be popping the champagne corks come next weekend.

Avengers: Age of Ultron opening weekend prediction: $212.7 million

Ex Machina Box Office Prediction

A legitimate wild card this weekend at the box office could be Ex Machina, a British science fiction tale that’s been on the receiving end of positive reviews and impressive per screen averages in limited release. It opens nationwide Friday, though I’ve yet to see a screen count which makes a prediction a little more complicated. Domhnall Gleeson and Oscar Isaac are among the cast in the directorial debut of Alex Garland, writer of 28 Days Later and Dredd.

The critically acclaimed feature (it sits at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes) made nearly $800,000 on just 39 screens last weekend for a sparkling $20k per screen average. That could bode well for filmgoers looking for a more serious sci fi offering before the summer onslaught begins with Avengers next weekend.

Again, without a screen count, it’s a tricky projection but I’ll estimate Ex Machina finds its way into the top five.

Ex Machina opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

Little Boy Box Office Prediction

The Kevin James sequel Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 may have slightly outdone expectations this past weekend, but his new picture out Friday seems poised to do minor business. James costars in Little Boy, a World War II drama with comedic elements that also features Emily Watson, Michael Rapaport and Ben Chaplin.

Opening on roughly 1000 screens, Little Boy has had a muted marketing campaign and early reviews have been underwhelming. The Open Road release actually seems like a prime candidate for an On Demand only debut and I’m a little surprised it’s premiering as wide as it is.

I’ll predict Little Boy does little b.o. activity at all.

Little Boy opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million

Box Office Predictions: April 24-26

The final weekend at the box office in 2015 will likely be memorable only as “the weekend before Avengers: Age of Ultron comes out” as that summer season kick off blockbuster may be poised for the largest domestic opening of all time.

As for this weekend, the romance The Age of Adaline with Blake Lively and Harrison Ford comes out. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/19/the-age-of-adaline-box-office-prediction/

Adaline does have a shot at the top spot, but I’m projecting it will fall a bit short of Furious 7, allowing that enormous hit to have its fourth weekend at #1.

The real wild card this weekend is Ex Machina, a critically acclaimed British science entry starring Domhnall Gleeson and Oscar Isaac. My prediction post on it is here and I’m estimating it’ll land in fourth place:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/21/ex-machina-box-office-prediction/

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 got off to a healthy start last weekend and should lose about half its audience in its sophomore frame. Horror flick Unfriended should drop over 50%, as most pics of its genre in their second weekends do. Home, Dreamworks animated solid performer, should round out the top five.

There’s also Little Boy, a World War II comedic drama with Kevin James. Huh? I don’t expect much out of it as it should fall far outside of the top six:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/21/little-boy-box-office-prediction/

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)

2. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $12 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Ex Machina

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Unfriended

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 56%)

6. Home

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

Box Office Results (April 17-19)

In its third weekend, Furious 7 was tops again with $29.1 million, just under my $30.4M estimate. The Universal juggernaut stands at $294 million.

Kevin James surpassed most expectations as his critically drubbed Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 earned $23.7 million, a bit higher than my $21.4M prediction. The sequel couldn’t match the $31 million accomplished by the original, but it wasn’t expected to and this is a solid result.

Similarly, the low budget horror entry Unfriended had a commendable $15.8 million debut, outpacing my $12.6M projection.

In fourth, Home’s $10.6 million haul came in below my $12.3M estimate and its total is at $142 million. In its second weekend, romantic drama The Longest Ride was fifth with $7 million. My prediction? Exactly that! It’s made $23 million in its ten days of release.

Disney’s nature documentary Monkey Kingdom made just $4.5 million for a weak 8th place showing, not reaching my $5.9M guess. Even further down the chart and outside the top ten, the James Franco/Jonah Hill drama True Story opened on around 800 screens and managed a paltry $1.9 million (under my generous $3.7M prediction). Even worse, Child 44 with Tom Hardy premiered on just over 500 screens. I thought it would eek out a $2.1 million gross, yet it bombed badly with just $621,000 for a 17th place debut.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

The Age of Adaline Box Office Prediction

This Friday, the romantic fantasy The Age of Adaline will attempt to unseat Furious 7’s three week reign atop the box office charts. Blake Lively stars with Harrison Ford (who turned up in a pretty cool trailer this week) and Ellen Burstyn costar.

The pic’s early critical reaction has been positive as it sits at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. Still it’s difficult to see Adaline breaking through in a big way. The film should be moderately successful in bringing in a female audience as their choices have been somewhat limited as of late. Adaline should earn in the low to mid teens in the final weekend before the summer blockbuster onslaught begins. That will likely put it at #2 behind Vin Diesel, Paul Walker and company.

The Age of Adaline Box Office Prediction: $13.3 million

Summer 2015 Movies: The Predicted Century Club

The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off two weeks from today when Avengers: Age of Ultron blasts into theaters. It will compete for the largest domestic opening of all time (where it needs to beat its predecessor) and is highly likely to be the season’s highest earner. That got me to thinking – while Ultron is poised to gross $500 million or higher, it’s been the $100 million mark that studios still like to brag about. This prompted me to look at the past five summer flick seasons and how many pictures reached that milestone.

In 2010, it was 13 movies that reached the mark: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Inception, Despicable Me, Shrek Forever After, The Karate Kid, Grown Ups, The Last Airbender, The Other Guys, Salt, Robin Hood, and The Expendables.

Things improved in 2011 with 18 films reaching the century club: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Hangover Part II, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Cars 2, Thor, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Captain America: First Avenger, The Help, Bridesmaids, Kung Fu Panda 2, X-Men: First Class, The Smurfs, Super 8, Horrible Bosses, Green Lantern, Bad Teacher, and Cowboys and Aliens.

The low mark was the following year in 2012 with just 12: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, Brave, Ted, Madagascar 3, Men in Black 3, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, Magic Mike, and The Bourne Legacy.

Yet the high mark came the following summer in 2013 with 19: Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel, Monsters University, Fast and Furious 6, Star Trek Into Darkness, World War Z, The Heat, We’re the Millers, The Great Gatsby, The Conjuring, Grown Ups 2, The Wolverine, Now You See Me, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, The Hangover Part III, Epic, Pacific Rim, and This is the End.

2014 dipped with 14: Guardians of the Galaxy, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Neighbors, Lucy, The Fault in Our Stars, and Edge of Tomorrow. 

That averages out to 15 pictures earning $100M plus per summer over this decade.

So where do I have 2015 matching up? Not breaking records, but in good shape. My predictions for the year’s $100M earners is 16 and they are as follows (in order of release date): Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, San Andreas, Spy, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, Ant-Man, Trainwreck, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, and Fantastic Four. 

Of course, there’s always sleepers. And there’s others that I could have predicted but think will fall short: the Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit, horror remake Poltergeist, the film version of Entourage, the Adam Sandler video game inspired action comedy Pixels, the Vacation reboot, and the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton are among them.

As predicted, summer 2015 should see its number of century club inductees on the slightly high end without reaching the heights of 2013. And as always, you’ll see box office predictions every Saturday from me on each and every one of ’em!

Box Office Predictions: April 17-19

Three new films open in wide release with two other rather high-profile entries debuting in more limited release. The trio of newbies going wide are the Kevin James sequel Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, horror pic Unfriended, and Disney nature documentary Monkey Kingdom. You can review my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/11/paul-blart-mall-cop-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/12/unfriended-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/12/monkey-kingdom-box-office-prediction/

Blart would love to replicate the $31 million debut accomplished by its predecessor in 2009. If it manages that, it would definitely challenge the third weekend of juggernaut Furious 7 for the top spot. However, that seems unlikely and James appears poised for the runner-up position.

Unfriended certainly has the potential for a robust opening (many horror flicks over perform), but I have it only posting so-so numbers. Monkey Kingdom will be lucky to break into the top five and my prediction has it not accomplishing that kind of business.

As for holdovers, Furious should three-peat at the top while the four and five spots should be filled by Home and The Longest Ride.

Outside of the top five, the spy thriller Child 44 with Tom Hardy and Gary Oldman rolls out on only about 800 screens while the crime drama True Story with James Franco and Jonah Hill premieres in approximately 550 venues. Due to their low number of screens, their openings should be fairly minor and I didn’t bother to do individual posts about them. I’ll say Child 44 earns $2.1 million while True Story makes $3.7 million.

And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. Unfriended

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

4. Home

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. The Longest Ride

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Monkey Kingdom Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (April 10-12)

As expected, Furious 7 easily topped the charts in weekend #2 with $59.5 million, just above my $56.5M estimate. The blockbuster has amassed an amazing $251 million in just ten days and is likely to rule the entire month of April at the top spot.

Dreamworks animated Home continued its solid run with $18.5 million in its third weekend, topping my $15.3M projection. Its made $129 million so far.

The Nicholas Sparks adapted romantic drama The Longest Ride had a middling premiere with $13 million, close to my $12.2M prediction. With no star power, it struggled a bit to reach its target audience.

Get Hard was fourth with $8.2 million (compared to my $6.1M prediction). The Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart teaming has earned $70 million at press time. The five spot belonged to Cinderella with $7.1 million, in line with my $7.3M projection and its total stands at $180M.

Elsewhere down the chart, the Helen Mirren/Ryan Reynolds drama Woman in Gold expanded its theater count for a respectable 7th place showing at $5.4 million.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Monkey Kingdom Box Office Prediction

DisneyNature unveils their latest animal documentary this Friday with Monkey Kingdom, narrated by Tina Fey. The doc follows a number of similarly themed pics put out by the studio in recent years, including Chimpanzee and Bears.

Chimpanzee faired well upon its release in 2012 with a $10.6 million debut. Monkey Kingdom would love to replicate that number. It might be tough. Last year’s Bears managed only $4.7 million out of the gate when it premiered on the same April weekend.

It could boil down to something as simple as this: do kids like monkeys more than bears? Probably and I believe that means Kingdom should beat the Bears opening, but not by much and not very close to what Chimpanzee accomplished.

Monkey Kingdom opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million

Unfriended Box Office Prediction

The genre of the found footage horror pic gains yet another entry with Unfriended, out Friday. The independent project was picked up by Universal Pictures after gaining positive word of mouth on the film festival circuit. Unfriended sits at a solid 83% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Still it’s hard to see Unfriended making much of a splash at the box office. I don’t see it quite reaching the $15 million earned by Woman in Black 2 earlier this year. Younger viewers may choose to wait to watch it on their computer screens which, by the way, is where this movie entirely takes place on. I’ll predict Unfriended manages to reach double digits and probably fade rather quickly.

Unfriended opening weekend prediction: $12.6 million

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 Box Office Prediction

America’s favorite shopping area law enforcement agent returns to theaters as Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 opens this Friday. Kevin James is back as the title character over six years after the original became a surprise mega-hit. And it really did. The first flick opened to $31.8 million in January 2009 on its way to a $146 million domestic gross.

I don’t see the sequel posting those kinds of numbers. First off, six years is a lot of time between installments. And is there really a huge outcry for a second helping of Blart? While a debut around the original’s $30M mark seems unlikely, I could see it making around the $20 million range that James’s 2011 pic Zookeeper accomplished. Considering its reported $38 million budget, it should reap a nice profit for Columbia Pictures.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million