Three February’s ago, Warner Bros hit the animation jackpot with TheLegoMovie. A proper sequel is on its way come 2019, but in the meantime we have a spin-off based on one of the most popular characters as TheLegoBatmanMovie hits theaters next weekend.
The 3D computer generated pic returns Will Arnett as the Caped Crusader in this action comedy from director Chris McKay, who was animation co-director on Lego. Zach Galifianakis voices The Joker, Michael Cera is Robin, Rosario Dawson is Batgirl, and Ralph Fiennes lends support as butler Alfred.
As the original is only three years old and the Lego line has a dedicated base, Lego fans should come out in droves for this. That said, I don’t quite expect this to match the $69 million achieved in the first weekend by its predecessor (it eventually made $257 million domestically). A high 50s to potentially high 60s gross seems more feasible, meaning it should debut at #1 ahead of Christian and Anastasia in FiftyShadesDarker.
TheLegoBatmanMovie opening weekend prediction: $65.8 million
Two years ago, the film version of the E.L. James novel Fifty Shades of Grey made a killing in theaters. This prompted the back to back shooting of second and third sequels Fifty Shades Darker and Fifty Shades Freed. Next weekend, Darker hits screens and hopes to keep the momentum going.
Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan are back in the roles of Anastasia Steele and Christian Grey as their, shall we say, unique love life is further explored. Costars include Marcia Gay Harden, Kim Basinger, Luke Grimes, and Rita Ora. James Foley takes over directorial duties from Sam Taylor-Johnson (Foley will also helm the third installment out in February 2018).
The initial pairing of these kinky leads led to a box office bonanza in February 2015 when Grey took in an astonishing $85 million in its first weekend with an eventual domestic haul of $166 million.
Early tracking suggests Darker is highly unlikely to compete with that opening frame gross. In fact, it’s been speculated that this follow-up may only earn about half that number. This sounds about right. While Grey easily took the #1 spot out of the gate, this opens against The Lego Batman Movie and probably won’t whip that serious competition. I’ll say Darker gets to the mid 40s for its start, which is still pretty solid considering its reported $55M budget.
Fifty Shades Darker opening weekend prediction: $44.8 million
For my The Lego Batman Movie prediction, click here:
The first weekend of February brings new titles to the marketplace to compete with holdovers and a football game on Sunday. They are: long gestating horror sequel Rings and sci-fi teen romance The Space Between Us. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, both The Bye Bye Man and Split exceeded their opening weekend expectations (more on the terrific Split earnings below). It’s been a bountiful 2017 thus far for the horror genre and I believe Rings will debut just north of $20M for a first place showing.
The Space Between Us should struggle to reach the top 5 and my mid single digits forecast for it leaves it on the outside. Current #1 and #2 Split and A Dog’s Purpose should slide down a spot with awards hopefuls Hidden Figures and La La Land rounding out the top five.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
1. Rings
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
2. Split
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)
3. A Dog’s Purpose
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)
4. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 24%)
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)
6. The Space Between Us
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
Box Office Results (January 27-29)
If the $40 million opening didn’t convince you, the second weekend of Split solidified director M. Night Shyamalan’s major comeback. The horror thriller took in $25.6 million in its sophomore frame (higher than my $18.5M forecast) to bring its total to $77 million. The century mark is in its sights and it experienced the smallest week 2 decline of any Shyamalan effort since The Sixth Sense.
Despite controversy, A Dog’s Purpose brought in a pleasing $18.2 million for a solid second place showing. This was much more than my $10.3M projection, which I revised down from an original estimate of $17.9M. Should have stuck with my first thought…
Hidden Figures (which won the main SAG prize yesterday) was third with $14 million compared to my $12.8M prediction. The Oscar nominee now stands at $104M.
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter posted a franchise low debut in fourth with just $13.6 million, just below my $14.6M estimate. Look for it to fade fast.
La La Land rounded out the top five with $12.2 million, above my $9.9M guesstimate. Like Figures, it also joined the $100M+ club as it’s made $106M.
xXx: Return of Xander Cage was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.6 million, in line with my $8.9M estimate for a weak tally of $33M.
Sing was seventh with $6.4 million (I said $5.6M) to pad its now $257M take.
Finally, Matthew McConaughey posted a career low wide opening with Gold. It only managed a 10th place debut with $3.4 million (I went higher with $5.4M).
Next weekend, the genres of science fiction and teen romance are intertwined when The Space Between Us lifts off in theaters. The film stars Asa Butterfield (who played the title role in 2013’s Ender’s Game) alongside the busy Britt Robertson (currently costarring in A Dog’s Purpose), Gary Oldman, and Carla Gugino.
Just like Rings (the only pic opening wide on the same day), Space has been delayed more than once by its studio. It was originally scheduled to open last July, then August, then December, and finally now. I don’t really see a scenario where this breaks out with its intended audience of genre buffs and females looking for some YA type material.
The film is based on an original idea, so there’s no known source material for moviegoers to base their anticipation on. Marketing for Space has been rather ho-hum as well. I’ll predict it only manages a mid to higher single digits gross and fades quickly.
The Space Between Us opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million
After nearly 12 years, that creepy contortionist Samara and that deadly videotape returns to the silver screen when Rings debuts next weekend. The horror flick reboots a franchise that began in 2002 with the American version of a 1998 Japanese pic. It was a huge success, followed up by a somewhat lackluster 2005 sequel. The question is whether young audiences who flock to the genre and now older moviegoers who were transfixed by the original turn out.
F. Javier Gutierrez takes over directorial reigns in this follow-up set 13 years after part two. The cast includes Matilda Lutz, Alex Roe, Johnny Galecki, and Vincent D’Onofrio.
Curiously, Rings has been pushed back on multiple occasions. First scheduled for fall of 2015, then spring 2016, and then October – Paramount finally settled for February 2017. The stateside version of The Ring in 2002 started off with a decent $15 million opening before its solid word-of-mouth carried it to a $129 million overall domestic gross. The sequel debuted much bigger with $35 million, but petered out quickly with a $76 million eventual tally.
I don’t expect Rings to come anywhere near the franchise high of Ring Two. There’s also a football game that Sunday that could deter some viewers away. That said, we’ve seen the horror genre outperform expectations twice already in the new year – when The Bye Bye Man took in nearly $16 million out of the gate and Split made $40 million for its start. This could also mean genre enthusiasts may have had their fill in recent weeks. I believe Rings manages to just top $20 million.
Rings opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million
For my The Space Between Us prediction, click here:
Matthew McConaughey packed on some pounds for next weekend’s Gold, but whether it manages to be a heavyweight at the box office is very much in question. The pic casts the Oscar winner as a hapless businessman who strikes you know what in the jungles of Indonesia. Stephen Gaghan makes his first directorial effort since 2005’s Syriana and costars include Bryce Dallas Howard, Edgar Ramirez, Corey Stoll, Stacy Keach, Toby Kebbell, Craig T. Nelson, and Bruce Greenwood.
The early 90s set adventure comedy/drama faces some obstacles in breaking through. First, while it received a very late 2016 limited release for Academy consideration, that didn’t bear fruit. Gold stands at only 43% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. While McConaughey has been a draw in various genres, this may not stand out enough to strike… you get it.
I believe a decent comp for this could be the star’s previous headlining role – last summer’s Free State of Jones, which managed only $7.5 million in its premiere. Bottom line: I don’t see audiences rushing to it and I’m not totally convinced it even reaches the Jones number.
The sixth (and apparently last judging by the title) franchise entry in a nearly decade and a half series, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter opens next weekend. Stemming from the Capcom video game which premiered nearly 20 years ago, Evil brings back Milla Jovovich as heroine Alice with a supporting cast that includes Ali Larter, Shawn Roberts, Ruby Rose (she’s costarring in another just out sequel xXx: Return of Xander Cage), and Iain Glen. Paul W.S. Anderson (not as you may suspect, the guy who did Boogie Nights and There Will Be Blood), directs his fourth Resident feature.
The latest blend of action and horror in this franchise has seen its longest lay-off in between pictures. That’s a trait recently shared by Underworld: Blood Wars, which came out earlier this month and posted a series low. The Evil pics have all opened in the high teens to mid 20s range. Let’s take a trip down memory lane, shall we?
Resident Evil (2002): $17.7 million opening
Resident Evil: Apocalypse (2004): $23 million
Resident Evil: Extinction (2007): $23.6 million
Resident Evil: Afterlife (2010): $26.6 million
Resident Evil: Retribution (2012): $21 million
As you can see, the previous longest gap was three years and this one has been five. As with the aforementioned Underworld, that might mean a lower opening than the series has witnessed thus far. Blood Wars managed just $13.6 million out of the gate while the four preceding it all made over $20M.
My guess is that this will suffer a very similar final fate and a gross in the low to mid teens range.
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
Blogger’s Update (Saturday, 01/21, 4:56pm): As mentioned below, I have decided to reconsider and revise my opening weekend prediction for ADog’sPurpose due to the swirling controversy regarding it. I am revising down from $17.9 million to just $10.3 million now.
Blogger’s Update (Wednesday, 01/18, 6:24pm): The prediction below for ADog’sPurpose was written prior to the Wednesday, January 18th allegations in the media involving animal mistreatment on set. Obviously, this story could alter my estimate and I will be monitoring the story as it progresses. I will keep my current projection for the time being, but it is likely to change. I will post further updates as needed.
A Dog’s Purpose is based on a very successful 2010 bestseller by W. Bruce Cameron and the film version hits theaters next weekend. Chronicling the existence of one of man’s best friends through various incarnations, Purpose comes from director Lasse Hallstrom, who was nominated for an Oscar over 30 years ago for Swedish pic My Life as a Dog (he also made The Cider House Rules and Chocolat). Human stars here include Britt Robertson, Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, and Peggy Lipton (yep, the one from TV’s “The Mod Squad”!).
This adaptation could be rather successful in bringing in a female audience (and dog lovers for that matter). The well-known source material should help and I even think it will likely surpass the opening weekend of its main competitor, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter.
I’ll estimate that Purpose reaches in the mid to high teens for a decent debut. That’s only about half of what Marley and Me made in 2008, but it’s still pretty doggone good.
A Dog’s Purpose opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
**REVISED NUMBER BASED ON EVENTS
For my Resident Evil: The Final Chapter prediction, click here:
As if the six films crowding the MLK four-day weekend wasn’t enough this past frame, there are now five more hitting theaters in wide release on Friday. They are: Vin Diesel action sequel xXx: Return of Xander Cage, M. Night Shyamalan horror thriller Split, Michael Keaton led Ray Kroc biopic The Founder, comedic drama 20th Century Women with Annette Bening, and faith-based pic The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Mr. Diesel is likely to rule the weekend, though a higher than expected gross for Split would not surprise me (reviews are good and so are the TV spots). The three and four spots should be filled with two awards hopefuls already doing brisk business: two-week champ Hidden Figures and Best Picture front runner La La Land.
As for The Founder, it’s only debuting on 1100 screens which should hinder its potential. My $4.1 million estimate puts it just outside the top 10. I anticipate both 20th Century Women ($2.8M forecast) and Gavin Stone ($1.6M prediction) to be pretty far outside my projected 10.
And here is that top 10 from where I see it:
1. xXx: Return of Xander Cage
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
2. Split
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
3. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 22%)
5. Sing
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
7. Patriots Day
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)
8. Monster Trucks
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)
9. The Bye Bye Man
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)
10. Sleepless
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (January 13-16)
Those ladies from NASA held onto the top spot for the second weekend in a row as Hidden Figures topped the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday weekend with earnings of $27.5 million. This is a bit above my predicted figure of $24.1M and brings its tally to $61 million.
The animated Sing was second with $19 million (past my $16.4M estimate) as it stands at a pleasing $238 million total.
LaLaLand sang and danced its way to third place one weekend after cleaning up at the Golden Globes. It earned $17.7 million (I was lower with $13.7M) and its total is at $77 million, barreling towards $100M as Oscar nominations are due next week.
RogueOne: AStarWarsStory was fourth with $16.8 million (I was close with $16.4M). The highest grosser of 2015 padded its gross to $501 million.
The top four did not include a single one of the six newbies that entered the marketplace. The biggest grosser of that group was surprisingly low-budget horror pic TheByeByeMan. It earned an impressive $15.2 million, well beyond my $8.8M projection.
Kiddie flick MonsterTrucks opened in sixth with $14.1 million. The good news? That was better than my $10.1M guesstimate. The bad news? It still had an inexplicable $115M budget and is a sizable flop.
PatriotsDay with Mark Wahlberg posted an unimpressive debut in seventh with $13.7 million, nearly $10M under my $23.6M prediction. It did garner an A+ Cinemascore so its best hope is for low drop-offs in the coming weekends.
The Jamie Foxx action thriller Sleepless premiered in eighth with a rather sleepy $9.7 million, on pace with my $10.3M take.
Underworld: BloodWars dropped to ninth in its sophomore frame with $7.2 million, just above my $6.6M projection. It’s made $25 million thus far.
Passengers rounded out the top ten with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The total is $90 million as it looks to top the century club.
Perhaps the biggest stunner of the weekend was the dismal performance of Ben Affleck’s LivebyNight. The gangster drama which received middling reviews bombed in 12th place with just $6 million, less than half of my $13.2M prediction.
Finally, Martin Scorsese’s Silence also flopped as it widened its release. The faith centered passion project for the celebrated director made just $2.3 million in 16th place, not quite reaching my $3M forecast.
Faith based comedic drama The Resurrection of Gavin Stone debuts next weekend and it hopes to over perform like several other Christian themed pics have in recent years. Co-produced in part by Blumhouse Tilt and WWE Studios, it stars Brett Dalton, Anjelah Johnson, Neil Flynn, Shawn Michaels (yep, the wrestler), and D.B. Sweeney (yep, one half of the ice skating duo in early 90s flick The Cutting Edge).
Focusing on a washed up child star who pretends to be a person of faith to play Jesus in a megachurch production, Stone comes with just a teeny $2 million budget. Profitability shouldn’t be a tall order.
That said, I expect it to fall just under its budget in the opening frame with the caveat that it could surprise a bit.
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone opening weekend prediction: $1.6 million
For my xXx: Return of Xander Cage prediction, click here:
