And here we go!

After days on the blog predicting the races for Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress – we arrive at the big prize, Best Picture! In the last few years, the Academy has gone to a format that allows anywhere from five to ten pictures to be recognized. In the last two years, that number has been nine. For now – I’ll keep that number for those I’m predicting, though that’s certainly subject to change.

This newer format more or less guarantees that the five people nominated for Best Director will see their movies nominated for Best Picture. Therefore, that means I’m predicting Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity, J.C. Chandor’s All is Lost, Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, and David O. Russell’s American Hustle are in. I am supremely confident in the nominations of two in particular: Twelve Years a Slave, which I’m also predicting for Director, Actor (Chiwetel Ejiofor), Supporting Actor (Michael Fassbender), and Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o) and Gravity, which I’ve also predicted for Director, Actress (Sandra Bullock), and Supporting Actor (George Clooney).

Foxcatcher, the true-life drama starring Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, and Channing Tatum, is the only title I’m predicting that no one has seen on the film festival circuit or otherwise. That goes against a group of unseen titles that many others are currently predicting: Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street, John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, Spike Jonze’s Her and Ben Stiller’s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty. Any one of them could enter the fray once the word is out, but I’m simply not ready to include them at press time.

There are two titles already out that stand decent chances: Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine and Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station, but I don’t think they’ll quite make it. Same goes for the following: Ron Howard’s Rush, Denis Vilenueve’s Prisoners, Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Jason Reitman’s Labor Day, Bill Condon’s The Fifth Estate, and Jean-Marc Vallee’s Dallas Buyer’s Club.

So what are the other four movies I’ve got in right now? Paul Greengrass’s Somali pirate thriller Captain Phillips looks to be a strong possibility. So does the family drama August: Osage County, which has opened to mixed festival reviews but whose A-list cast (Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch) should help. The Coen Bros folk music pic Inside Llewyn Davis opened to raves on the festival circuit. And I believe the box office success of this summer’s Lee Daniels’ The Butler puts it in for now.

Will these predictions change? You bet they will! For now, though, here are my nine predictions for the biggest category of them all:

BEST PICTURE

All is Lost

American Hustle

August: Osage County

Captain Phillips

Foxcatcher

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Twelve Years a Slave

 

And there you have it! I’ll be updating my predictions for the six major races frequently on the blog so stay tuned!

Tonight on the blog, my predictions for the Best Director race in the 2013 Oscars. I’ve already covered all the acting races at this point. In fact, I even made some changes to the Best Actress and Supporting Actress races in those posts this evening. These are based on strong rumors that Meryl Streep will be campaigned for in the lead Actress race and not Supporting for August: Osage County. I cordially invite you to review all the acting predictions at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/07/early-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Moving forward, this Best Director race so far is tough to predict with two exceptions. I’m already highly confident that Alfonso Cuaron will be recognized for this October’s Gravity and Steve McQueen will be nominated for Twelve Years a Slave. Both pictures have taken the film festival circuit by storm and their work behind the camera seems virtually assured of being honored.

Speaking of film festivals, a number of them (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) have occurred over the past couple of weeks and that has helped the Oscar race take some shape. However, there are still a number of high-profile contenders that no one has seen yet. They are: John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks, Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street, David O. Russell’s American Hustle, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, Ben Stiller’s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Spike Jonze’s Her, Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, and Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher .All are legit contenders in this race and for Best Picture. At this juncture, I’m only predicting only one of these eight directors to be nominated. That would be Russell, who’s been nominated for his last two features, The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook. This might be a good time to explain why I’m not predicting Scorsese right now. Yes, he’s a legendary director who has been nominated for four of his last five pics. Based on the trailer, though, I’m not convinced Wolf of Wall Street is Oscar material. Don’t get me wrong… I’m probably looking forward to it more than any other movie this fall. Wolf looks like an extremely fun black comedy and I’m not sure that the Academy will recognize it. So (for now) Marty is off the list. As for the other unseen titles, any of them could be a factor and and their directors could make the list in future predictions.

This leaves the following directors vying for two more predicted slots: Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips, Lee Daniels Lee Daniels’ The Butler, J.C. Chandor’s All is Lost, Joel and Ethan Coen’s Inside Llewyn Davis, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, Ron Howard’s Rush, John Wells’s August: Osage County, Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long to Walk to Freedom, Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station, and Denis Villeneuve’s Prisoners. Who knows? Their could be even more auteurs joining this lengthy list later.

All of these pictures have either been released or, in most cases, have played the festival circuit recently. Of particular note is Rush, Ron Howard’s Formula One racing pic that was met with terrific reviews. This might be a nice chance for the Academy to recognize Howard twelve years after he won the prize for A Beautiful Mind. For the fifth slot, I’m going a bit out on a limb and going with J.C. Chandor, director of the Robert Redford nautical drama/thriller All is Lost. I’ve gone back and forth wanting to include Greengrass, the Coen Brothers, and Daniels. The same can be said for Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, but it’s tough to get a handle on that pic without even a trailer to view.

This is a race that will develop over the next couple of months I believe, with the exception of Cuaron and McQueen appearing to be locks.

BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/12/13): I have decided to make one change to my predictions and I am not taking Ron Howard out and substituting him with Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher.

BEST DIRECTOR (TODD’S PREDICTIONS)

J.C. Chandor, All is Lost

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Coming next… predictions for the biggest race of all, Best Documentary Short Subject! Actually, no, I’ll make my first predictions on the five to ten features that will be nominated for Best Picture. Stay tuned!

Today on the blog I give the five actors that, at press time, I believe will be nominated for Best Actor at this year’s Oscars. In previous posts over the past week, I’ve predicted Actress and Supporting Actor and Actress. You can find those here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Much like the Best Actress category (where I feel Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine and Sandra Bullock in Gravity will definitely be recognized), I see two surefire nominees for Best Actor. Steve McQueen’s slavery drama Twelve Years a Slave has received raves from the film festival circuit and it appears its star Chiwetel Ejiofor is in line for recognition. You may know Ejiofor for supporting roles in Inside Man or American Gangster or Love Actually, but this looks to be his breakout performance. A much more known actor is my second pick for a definite nomination: Robert Redford in All is Lost, in which the veteran performer plays a sailor stranded at sea. Like Slave, Lost has garnered raves at festivals, particularly for Redford. Shockingly, this would mark only the second acting nomination for him – 40 years after The Sting. 

Besides Ejiofor and Redford, everything is uncertain and there are plenty of actors competing for the remaining three slots. I have predicted Tom Hanks to receive a Supporting Actor nod for his role as Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks. He also appears a likely nominee for Paul Greengrass’ Somali pirate drama Captain Phillips. As mentioned in all other nomination posts, director David O. Russell gets his actors nominated (his last two pictures have featured seven nominees) and that could mean recognition for Christian Bale in American Hustle. Matthew McConaughey has yet to receive a nomination and he could get one for portraying an HIV positive man in Dallas Buyer’s Club. Hugh Jackman’s performance in the abduction drama Prisoners has been called career-best and he could receive his second nomination in as many years after the Les Miserables nod last year. Leonardo DiCaprio can’t be counted out for Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, though his nomination may depend on how well the pic does with the Academy. Audiences and many critics have embraced Lee Daniels’ The Butler and star Forest Whitaker could certainly benefit. Veteran actor Bruce Dern’s performance in Alexander Payne’s Nebraska has garnered high praise. Idris Elba is in contention for playing Nelson Mandela in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom. Oscar Isaac may receive a nomination for the Coen Brothers Inside Llewyn Davis. Director Bennett Miller made Capote which got Philip Seymour Hoffman a golden statue in this category and Moneyball for which Brad Pitt was nominated. Miller’s new pic Foxcatcher could see Steve Carell getting his first nomination. However, at press time, it’s uncertain whether Carell will be touted for Actor or Supporting Actor. Benedict Cumberbatch plays Wikileaks founder Julian Assange in Bill Condon’s The Fifth Estate, though the pic has opened to mixed reviews over the past couple of days. There’s Ben Stiller in The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (which he directed) and Joaquin Phoenix going for his second nomination in a row with Spike Jonze’s Her. And there’s Michael Fassbender in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor which is possible though the actor is much more likely to be nominated for Supporting Actor in Twelve Years a Slave. 

So… there’s your contenders and there’s lots of ’em. As previously mentioned, I believe Ejiofor and Redford are in but the rest of the field could change quite a bit over the next many weeks until nomination time. Right now, here are my five predicted nominees:

BEST ACTOR

Chiwetel Ejiofor, Twelve Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Robert Redford, All is Lost

Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

 

I’ll be back with my predictions for Best Director and then Best Picture shortly!

On the blog this evening comes part 3 of my early 2013 Oscar Predictions. I’ve already done posts for Supporting Actor and Actress which can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We’ve still got Actor, Director, and Picture to go, but it’s the leading ladies tonight with my predictions for Best Actress. I would say at this early point in the race, we already have two definite nominees. First, Cate Blanchett for her critically lauded work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, which was released this summer. She pretty much became an instant shoo-in upon the picture’s release. Then there’s Sandra Bullock in Alfonso Cuaron’s outer space thriller Gravity. That pic has played at festivals already before its October release and her performance is said to be magnificent. This would mark Bullock’s second nomination after winning four years ago for The Blind Side.

After that things become uncertain. The film festival circuit has also elevated Judi Dench for her work in Philomena. This would mark the veteran performer’s seventh Academy nomination. Emma Thompson looks like a real possibility in Saving Mr. Banks, in which she plays “Mary Poppins” author P.L. Travers as she works with Walt Disney (Tom Hanks) on the making of the classic film. As I’ve mentioned in my Supporting Actor and Actress posts, director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated. This bodes well for Amy Adams in American Hustle, though she could be competing with herself in Spike Jonze’s Her. Julia Roberts will be touted for lead in August: Osage County, though her costars Meryl Streep and Margo Martindale may receive more attention. The French romantic drama Blue Is the Warmest Colour won the Palme d’Or at Cannes including an award for its star Adele Exarchopoulos. The 19 year-old actress definitely has a shot. Both Naomi Watts in Diana (playing Princess Diana) and Nicole Kidman in Grace of Monaco (playing Princess Grace) are contenders, though I’m skeptical until we found out whether the movies are any good. Kate Winslet’s work in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day could be recognized.

BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in this category instead of Supporting Actress. Reaction to the film has led to me believing Meryl gets nominated here, so I’m taking Emma Thompson out for now and putting Streep in.

Bottom line: Blanchett and Bullock are in. The rest is unclear right now, but here’s how I see the five nominations at this juncture:

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Colour

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

I’ll have my predictions up for Best Actor soon!