There was little doubt that Sam Raimi’s Oz The Great and Powerful would repeat at #1 in its second weekend at the box office, which is precisely what it did. The biggest film of 2013 grossed a rock solid $41.3 million in its sophomore frame, right on target with my $42 million projection.
However, it was the weekend’s two new releases that provided the surprises. Halle Berry’s thriller The Call outperformed all expectations, managing to make an impressive $17.1 million, well beyond my $9.2M estimate. Even though reviews were mostly negative, the film’s marketing campaign did its job. This is great news for Berry, whose box office track record has been unimpressive lately.
On the other side of the fence, the comedy The Incredible Burt Wonderstone landed with a thud. The Steve Carell/Jim Carrey picture received mixed reviews and its trailers weren’t particularly funny, but I still figured it would manage a $16.3 million opening (by the way, my estimate was lower than many others). Wrong, wrong, wrong. Wonderstone is a legitimate bomb as it made only $10.2 million.
Rounding out the top five, Jack the Giant Slayer was fourth with $6.3 million (holding up better than my $4.3M estimate) and Identity Thief was fifth with $4.4 million (just above my $4M projection).
Oz gets some real challengers for the throne next weekend when the animated The Croods, the thriller Olympus Has Fallen, and the Tina Fey comedy Admission all debut. My predictions for next weekend will be up Wednesday. Stay tuned!
***Blogger’s Note: I originally wrote this piece on Facebook notes in June 2012, a few months before my blog’s inception. The list hasn’t changed since then, so I’m republishing for your viewing pleasure.
Two reasons I write this today:
1) I love making lists
2) I get asked a lot “What’s your favorite movie of all time?” since people know I’m a big movie buff.
So, after a lot of thought, here are my top ten movies of all time. But before that, here’s an extensive list of other movies in no particular order that are probably in my top 50 or so:
Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981), Star Wars (1977), National Lampoon’s Animal House (1978), Vacation (1983), Reservoir Dogs (1992), Halloween (1978), Seven (1995), Groundhog Day (1993), The Silence of the Lambs (1991), Boogie Nights (1997), North by Northwest (1959), Psycho (1960), E.T. (1982), Jaws (1975), Goldfinger (1964), Casablanca (1943), Midnight Run (1988), Scarface (1983), Alien (1979), Kill Bill – Vol. I and II (2003/2004), The Game (1997), Rear Window (1954), Strangers on a Train (1951), The Departed (2006), Heat (1995), The Shawshank Redemption (1994), Dr. Strangelove (1964), The Jerk (1979), Dumb and Dumber (1994).
And… now… my Top Ten of All Time (for today at least)
10. The Exorcist (1973) – quite simply the most scary thing ever put to film. I tried to watch it when I was 13 and had to turn it off, but was later able to appreciate this is the most effective and by far the greatest horror film ever made.
9. The Empire Strikes Back (1980) – the best Star Wars film. Period.
8. Taxi Driver (1976) – one of many Martin Scorsese masterpieces with Robert De Niro’s best performace ever.
7. Airplane! (1980) – my favorite comedy of all time. I laugh hard every single time I watch it, which has been many times.
6. Die Hard (1988) – the best action movie of all time and it’s influenced pretty much every action movie that’s followed it. Hans Gruber rivals Darth Vader and Hannibal Lecter as the best movie villain ever.
5. Vertigo (1958) – you’ll notice above I have several other Hitchcock movies listed. Vertigo gets in the Top Ten because it was Hitchcock at the top of his game, with an amazing performace by Jimmy Stewart and the incredible twists and turns you expect in a movie from the greatest director ever.
4. GoodFellas (1990) – every time I watch it, I can’t believe how brilliant it is. Scorsese’s best with unforgettable performaces, camera work, soundtrack, etc… It’s got everything.
3. Pulp Fiction (1994) – Quentin Tarantino has literally yet to make a movie I don’t love, but Pulp Fiction is his masterpiece so far. I saw this movie more times in the theater than any other movie. I’ve seen it countless times, but still find myself watching it every time it’s on.
1/2. The Godfather and The Godfather – Part II (1972/1974) – … and it’s not even close. There’s these two movies and then everything else. The only thing I can’t decide is which to rank #1 and #2, which could change on a day to day basis. So I’ll just list them as the top two. They’re both perfect movies. I’ve often said Pacino’s performance and transformation from a kid out of military school in #1 and a cold-blooded Mafia don in #2 is the best film acting ever.
Steve Carell, Jim Carrey, and Halle Berry enter the box office fray this weekend and try to muster up some competition for the second weekend of the biggest movie of the year so far, Oz The Great and Powerful as it enters weekend #2.
Neither title is likely to provide much of a threat for Oz to stay strong at the number spot. A better question is how far Oz falls in its sophomore frame. The Sam Raimi directed fantasy prequel opened to an impressive $79.1 million last weekend. A 50% drop or more is certainly possible, but with fairly weak competitors, I am projecting it won’t drop quite that far.
Steve Carell, Steve Buscemi, and Jim Carrey headline the new comedy The Incredible Burt Wonderstone. There is certainly a lot of talent involved here, but I must admit the trailers have underwhelmed me a bit. Wonderstone just doesn’t seem strong enough to be a comedy the masses will rush out and see, even with the principals involved. Reviews have been mixed and shouldn’t contribute to any positive buzz. I would say anything over $20 million for it would be solid and that’s not out of the question, but I’m not sold and will predict it doesn’t reach that mark.
The weekend’s other new entry is the thriller The Call starring Halle Berry and Abigail Breslin. Ms. Berry’s box office record has been spotty, at best, over the last several years and I don’t expect this to change her fortunes. Frankly, the trailers for this make it look like a direct-to-DVD or Lifetime movie if it wasn’t for the star’s involvement. Having said that, The Call is the type of film that could surprise… or completely bomb. I put the range on this opening from $5 to $15 million (though the latter seems highly unlikely). A gross somewhere in the middle seems more possible. Still, if you’ve been clamoring for a flick featuring Storm from X-Men saving Little Miss Sunshine from a child abduction, this is your movie.
Rounding out the Top Five, last weekend’s number two and three should slide to fourth and fifth. Jack the Giant Slayer has been a giant disappointment and will likely see a big slide in its third frame. Identity Thief should get the five spot in its sixth weekend. There is a distinct chance Thief could leap Slayer, switching up those spots.
Here are my predictions for the weekend box office:
1. Oz The Great and Powerful
Predicted Gross: $42 million (representing a drop of 47%)
2. The Incredible Burt Wonderstone
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
3. The Call
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
4. Jack the Giant Slayer
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 57%)
5. Identity Thief
Predicted Gross: $4 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Results as they come in throughout the weekend will be posted on Saturday and Sunday.
It’s been nearly two decades since Mr. Jim Carrey has become a giant movie star. In 1994, Carrey capitalized on the promise he showed on the groundbreaking Fox sketch comedy show “In Living Color” by starring in three huge hits: Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, and Dumb and Dumber.
His impressive box office streak started in ’94 would experience speed bumps in later years, with forgettable comedies like Fun with Dick and Jane and Yes Man. He would also delve into dramatic territory with titles like Man on the Moon and The Majestic.
This Friday, Carrey co-stars with Steve Carell and Steve Buscemi in the comedy The Incredible Burt Wonderstone. With Carrey in the limelight right now, it felt like an appropriate time to name my top five Carrey pictures.
There’s a lot you won’t find on here. I didn’t particularly care for either of the Ace Ventura pictures. Or How the Grinch Stole Christmas. While I liked The Mask and Bruce Almighty (two of his biggest hits), they didn’t make the cut. Same with Me, Myself, and Irene. And while he was an obvious choice to play The Riddler in Batman Forever, the film itself was a mediocre exercise that previewed the disaster that would be its follow-up, Batman and Robin. So what did make the cut? Read on:
5. Liar Liar (1997)
This perfect vehicle for the star has a simple and effective premise: Carrey is incapable of lying after his neglected kid makes a wish. Not an easy task for the fast-talking lawyer Carrey plays. Audiences responded and Liar Liar earned $181 million domestically.
4. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004)
This strange mix of romance, comedy, and science fiction from director Michel Gondry (from a clever script by Charlie Kaufman) gave deserved indie cred for Carrey. It features Carrey in a fine performance with the best cast he’s ever worked with, including Kate Winslet, Mark Ruffalo, and Tom Wilkinson.
3. The Cable Guy (1996)
Audiences didn’t know what to make of this dark comedy when it premiered in the summer of 1996. The Cable Guy made $60 million domestic, well below Carrey’s previous five pictures. Since then, it’s become a cult classic. It should be. It’s filled with hilarious moments and a wonderfully out there Carrey performance. It features a terrific supporting cast including Matthew Broderick, Jack Black, Owen Wilson, and Leslie Mann. Ben Stiller did directing duties.
2. The Truman Show (1998)
Carrey’s first foray into dramatic territory is still his best. Peter Weir’s The Truman Show is a film as timely today as it was fifteen years ago (maybe more so), focusing on a seemingly normal fellow who has no clue his entire life is being filmed as a reality show. Carrey gives a fantastic performance, as does Ed Harris as the show’s creator.
1. Dumb and Dumber (1994)
Most of us can quote the film endlessly and it’s one of those movies you pretty much have to watch when it’s on. Dumb and Dumber is simply one of the funniest movies ever made. The Farrelly Brothers masterpiece features one of the greatest comedy duos of all time – Mr. Carrey and Mr. Jeff Daniels. Just reading this, you’re probably thinking “Pills are good!!!”, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance…”, and about that poor parakeet Petey.
So there you have it. My personal faves for Jim Carrey.
The most eagerly awaited title of 2013 so far, Oz The Great and Powerful, managed to deliver the 39th biggest opening of all time this weekend, even while falling a bit below my projection.
The Sam Raimi directed Wizard of Oz prequel grossed $79.1 million, under my $87.4M estimate. Still, the opening is solid. A sequel has already been greenlighted. It will be interesting to see how the picture holds up in its second weekend. Stay tuned for my post this week projecting Oz‘s grosses then.
The first big bomb of 2013, Jack the Giant Slayer, had a disappointing second weekend as well, dipping a hefty 63% for a gross of $9.8 million, below my $12.7M estimate. Identity Thief placed third in its fifth weekend with $6.3 million, which I predicted exactly on the nose.
The weekend’s other new release, Colin Farrell’s Dead Man Down, did not fare well. It grossed a meager $5.3 million, slightly below my $5.9M projection.
Finally, the comedy 21&Over tied with Snitch for fifth, grossing $5.1 million, a bit above my $4.3M estimate.
Stay tuned for estimates for next weekend, when the comedy The Incredible Burt Wonderstone and the Halle Berry thriller The Call attempt to compete with Oz‘s second weekend.
1996 was a rather lackluster year for movies. The year’s releases, as a whole, didn’t come close to matching the couple years before it or what would follow in 1997.
The Oscars for ’96 reflected that. The big winner for the evening: the late Anthony Minghella’s The English Patient, starring Ralph Fiennes, Kristin Scott Thomas, and Juliette Binoche. A good film, yes, but one of the less memorable Best Picture winners of the last two decades.
Patient would win over Fargo, the Coen Brothers quirky crime comedy/drama masterpiece. My vote certainly would’ve gone to that.
Jerry Maguire, Cameron Crowe’s sports drama/comedy, would also earn a nomination, along with indie titles Secrets&Lies (from director Mike Leigh) and Shine (from director Scott Hicks).
Other pictures that should have merited consideration in my view: Danny Boyle’s Trainspotting and Stanley Tucci and Campbell Scott’s Big Night.
Minghella would win Best Director for Patient, beating out Joel Coen, Mike Leigh, Scott Hicks, and Milos Forman for The People Vs. Larry Flynt. Crowe was the only director not nominated whose film was.
In the Best Actor race, Geoffrey Rush would be honored for Shine over Tom Cruise in Maguire, Ralph Fiennes in Patient, Woody Harrelson for Flynt, and Billy Bob Thornton for his very memorable performance in Sling Blade.
The Best Actor category gave a perfect opportunity for the Academy to honor comedy, which they rarely do. Eddie Murphy deserved a nod for his brilliant work in The Nutty Professor. The Academy, as usual, didn’t take the bait.
Frances McDormand would deservedly take the Best Actress prize for her terrific performance in Fargo. She beat out Brenda Blethyn in Secrets&Lies, Diane Keaton in Marvin’s Room, Kristin Scott Thomas for Patient, and Emily Watson in Breaking the Waves. Other deserving nominees not to make the list: Courtney Love for People Vs. Larry Flynt and Laura Dern for Citizen Ruth.
In the Best Supporting Actor race, Cuba Gooding Jr. inexplicably won for his part in Jerry Maguire over a much better choice, William H. Macy’s fabulous work in Fargo. Other nominees: Edward Norton in Primal Fear, Armin Mueller-Stahl for Shine, and James Woods in Ghosts of Mississippi.
Once again, the Academy could have honored comedy here. An obvious choice would have been Nathan Lane in The Birdcage. For me, personally, I would’ve gone way outside the box and honored Bill Murray’s scene-stealing turn in Kingpin. Watch this compilation and tell me I’m wrong.
Juliette Binoche was a surprise winner for Best Supporting Actress for Patient, beating the odds-on favorite Lauren Bacall for The Mirror Has Two Faces. Other nominees: Joan Allen for The Crucible, Barbara Hershey for Portrait of a Lady, and Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Secrets&Lies.
Finally, while Fargo won Original Screenplay (as it should have), they should have made room to nominate the excellent screenplay for Doug Liman’s Swingers with Jon Favreau and Vince Vaughn.
All in all, the 1996 Oscars reflected the lackluster year that it was. I shall return soon with a recap of the 1997 ceremony.
It’s probably safe to say that I am not the target audience for Magic Mike, 2012’s smash hit that shocked box office watchers last summer when it grossed nearly $40 million in its first weekend and over $100 million domestically by the end of its run.
In its opening weekend, 73% of its audience was female. Hence me not being the target audience. And while I know so many of you will be shocked by this, I have also never been involved in the world of male stripping.
Magic Mike contributed to an excellent 2012 for star Channing Tatum. Last year provided three blockbusters for him: this, The Vow, and 21 Jump Street. Tatum was the flavor of 2012, just as Ryan Gosling was the flavor of 2011. Mr. Tatum will try to replicate that success in 2013, with the G.I. Joe sequel and this summer’s White House Down with Jamie Foxx.
Steven Soderbergh is, frankly, the reason I chose to spend two hours with Magic Mike. The director is known for making unpredictable choices and working at a breakneck pace. In the last six years alone, he’s directed eight features: Che, The Girlfriend Experience, The Informant!, Contagion, Haywire, Side Effects, the upcoming HBO Liberace biopic Behind the Candelabra, and this. He’s directed two of my favorite pictures of the last twenty years: 1998’s Out of Sight and 2000’s Traffic. He’s also responsible for the Ocean’s Eleven trilogy that made boatloads of money and gave a nice excuse for megastars like Clooney, Pitt, and Damon to hang out.
I realizethat watching Magic Mike because of Mr. Soderbergh is not the reason most audience members saw it. That honor belongs to Mr. Tatum. Over the past two years, it’s been Gosling and Tatum that have worked their way into the hearts of female movie fans. From my perspective, I’m happy to report the two share something in common: they are both very good actors.
Magic Mike is loosely based on Tatum’s real-life experiences as a male stripper. In the film, he plays the title character, an ambitious entrepreneur who makes most of his money working at Xquisite Strip Club in Tampa. We meet the quirky cast of coworkers from the club, including the owner Dallas, in a terrific performance from Matthew McConaughey. Mike also discovers a new star for the club Adam (Alex Pettyfer), who he mentors with mixed results. Mike also falls for Adam’s sister Brooke (Cody Horn).
The screenplay, from Reid Carolin, is often pretty standard stuff. The romance between Mike and Brooke feels a little underwritten and the business about Adam getting involved with drugs is something we’ve seen in dozens of movies. This doesn’t add anything new to that dynamic.
However, Magic Mike succeeds due to a fine performance from Tatum. I suspect Mr. Tatum will have a career similar to Matt Damon. Tatum is good at comedy (21 Jump Street), action, and drama, something that can be said for Damon as well. Tatum is also an excellent dancer… I’m not sure if Jason Bourne would look right busting a move to Ginuwine’s “Pony”, as Channing does here.
It also succeeds because Soderbergh is a great director who gets the most out of this material, even if the screenplay isn’t too original. The subject matter is pretty original though and credit goes to Tatum for using his life experiences and turning it into a blockbuster film.
On a final note, isn’t it wonderful to see McConaughey blossom into such a fantastic actor? He deserved the Oscar buzz he got for this performance, even if he didn’t end up nominated.
So while Magic Mike wasn’t made for me, I was pleasantly surprised by it.
As readers of my blog know, I went into detailed explanation on Monday predicting the opening weekend box office gross for Oz The Great and Powerful, 2013’s most high-profile release opening Friday. For those who have yet to see it, here’s the link covering that subject:
While Oz will undoubtedly rule the weekend, there is one more wide release out: the Colin Farrell action/thriller Dead Man Down. I expect this release will not perform well. The ad campaign has been pretty lacking and it appears destined to join other generically titled action flicks that have all bombed this year. Think The Last Stand, Bullet to the Head, and Parker. Farrell is certainly not a box office draw. Even his much higher profile Total Recall remake did lackluster numbers last summer.
On the holdovers front, Jack the Giant Slayer was a big financial disappointment in its debut last weekend, grossing a meager $27 million (peanuts compared to its nearly $200 million dollar price tag). With direct competition from Oz, it’s likely to drop over 50 percent and further its reputation as the first significant bomb of 2013. The comedy 21&Over also debuted with bad results last weekend, grossing under $9 million. Its slide may not be quite as hefty as Slayer‘s, but it may not be much better. Finally, Identity Thief is likely to have the smallest decline as it enters its fifth weekend.
And with that, we’re off the see my Top Five predictions for the weekend where Oz is all anyone is talking about:
1. Oz The Great and Powerful
Predicted Gross: $87.4 million
2. Jack the Giant Slayer
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)
3. Identity Thief
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Dead Man Down
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. 21&Over
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Check back over the weekend as the results for Oz start rolling in and on Sunday when final numbers are released!
Harrison Ford has an amazing career spanning four decades of film history, most notably playing two of the most iconic characters to ever grace the screen: Han Solo and Indiana Jones in a total of seven movies.
That tally will soon be added to, as Mr. Ford is set to return as Han Solo in either Star Wars Episode VII or one of the spin-off pictures. And a return to Indiana Jones certainly cannot be ruled out, if even the 2008 installment Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of Crystal Skull was met with a mixed response (it still made tons of money).
As for the near future, Ford will appear in three high-profile releases in 2013: the Jackie Robinson biopic 42 (out in April), the big-budget science fiction thriller Ender’s Game (November), and as a legendary newscaster in Anchorman: The Legend Continues (December). It could be Harrison’s best year at the box office in quite some time.
Beyond Mr. Solo and Dr. Jones, Ford has starred in some other very well-regarded movies, including Blade Runner, Witness, and The Fugitive. And there was his stint as Jack Ryan in both 1992’s Patriot Games and 1994’s Clear and Present Danger.
Here are two more films featuring Harrison Ford that you might not know and are both worth watching. First, the 1988 mystery Frantic, directed by Roman Polanski. It stars Ford as a doctor visiting Paris whose wife disappears, leading to all sorts of international intrigue. Frantic has a distinct Hitchcock vibe to it, Ford’s performance is solid, and it’s definitely worth a look.
The same can be said for 1990’s Presumed Innocent, a very entertaining legal thriller starring Ford as a prosecutor accused of killing his mistress. This one will keep you guessing throughout and, once again, features a first-rate performance from the star. Presumed Innocent was considerably more of a box office hit than Frantic, but it’s been over 20 years since its release and if you’re not aware of it, seek it out.
I normally wait until Wednesday to make my box office predictions for the upcoming weekend. While I have no intention of changing that practice, I will from time to time make an early prediction under special circumstances.
This coming weekend provides such a circumstance. In short, when an especially eagerly awaited release is set to debut, my projection will come a little earlier. I’m doing this for one main reason: I don’t want to be influenced by the inevitable flurry of articles likely to appear during the week pontificating on how Oz the Great and Powerful will perform this weekend. I choose to pontificate first (especially due to the extreme lack of pontificating going on generally around the world at the moment).
I would expect to see similar early posts over the coming months on titles such as Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, and The Lone Ranger, among others.
However, we begin with what is unquestionably the biggest release of 2013 so far: Sam Raimi’s Oz the Great and Powerful. The prequel to one of the most beloved movies of all time stars James Franco, Michelle Williams, Rachel Weisz, and Mila Kunis.
Disney has gone all out marketing the film and raising its profile over the last several months, complete with a Super Bowl spot and constantly running ads on TV. The total budget, including the hefty marketing campaign, reportedly tops out at $325 million dollars. With that kind of money behind it, anything less than a smash hit will be considered a major letdown.
With its second weekend of March release date, it’s no secret Disney is attempting to replicate the success of another one of their titles released the same weekend three years ago: Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland, starring Johnny Depp. Watching the Oz trailers, it’s certainly marketed with the same vibe as the aforementioned mega-blockbuster. Wonderland currently stands as having the 14th biggest opening ever with $116.1 million. Disney would be over the moon to see those kinds of numbers for Oz.
I’m not so sure. First off, if Oz grosses over $100 million this weekend, mission accomplished for Disney. While the two titles are alike in many ways, Wonderland had the added benefit of having one of the biggest movie stars on the planet with their name above the title. There was probably a fair amount of moviegoers who went to see it simply because Depp was in it. Oz does not have that luxury. It’s filled with well-known actors, but none of them are box office draws. It’s worth noting that Robert Downey Jr. considered headlining the film at one point, but declined. His participation would have likely increased my estimate for Oz considerably, to the tune of an additional $15-$20 million dollars.
Sam Raimi’s film does have the name recognition thing going for it, though. It’s hard to find anyone who hasn’t seen (and loved) 1939’s The Wizard of Oz, a movie that picks up fans with every passing generation. It is certainly the main selling point here.
So far, reviews are mixed. That’s good enough. In many ways, Oz is critic-proof and its performance could only be hurt if it was savaged by critics. That does not appear to be the case whatsoever.
A more fair comparison for what Oz accomplishes this weekend may just be a film from the very recent past, Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. That, too, had a built-in audience eager to see it. It also received mixed reviews. And frankly, its box office performance in its inaugural weekend seems more likely to resemble what Oz will do. The Hobbit earned an $84.6 million opening in December.
Director Sam Raimi is certainly no stranger to blockbuster releases. He directed the Tobey Maguire Spiderman trilogy. The first film in that series debuted in 2002 to the best opening of all time (it now stands at #15, right behind Alice in Wonderland).
The flexibility as to what Oz grosses is pretty wide. Anything below $75 million will be seen as low, no matter how Disney spins it. Anything above $100 million would be a bit surprising and certainly amazing news for the Mouse Factory. My estimate puts it slightly above Hobbit territory:
Final Prediction
Oz the Great and Powerful: $87.4 million opening weekend
That prediction would give Oz the 33rd largest opening ever, in between Spiderman 2 and Fast Five. That number would likely be seen as a very solid opening, but how it holds up in subsequent weekends remains to be seen. If I had to further estimate, I’d say its chances of making more than my prediction is greater than its chances of making less, even though something in the low to middle 80s is quite possible. I don’t see it going below $75 million, but we’ll see.
On Wednesday, I will be back with my full predictions for the weekend’s Top Five. Special openings call for special blog posts and I wanted to get the Oz projection out now. Stay tuned!
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