The Evil Dead remake scared up some very solid box office numbers this weekend, opening well beyond my prediction. Dead earned $25.7 million, above my $19.8M projection. The Sam Raimi produced horror flick has a budget of only approximately $15 million. A sequel has already been greenlit. One minor concern for the studio: Dead received a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, indicating audiences didn’t really like what they saw (critics were much kinder). Horror titles generally experience significant drop-offs in the second weekend and the same should be expected here.
Holdovers G.I. Joe: Retaliation and The Croods were close for second and third earning $20.8 and $20.6 million, above my $18.7M and $18.2M projections, respectively. Joe dropped only 49%, holding up considerably better than G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra, which dropped 59% in its sophomore frame in 2009.
The 20th anniversary re-release of Spielberg’s Jurassic Park also exceeded my expectations with a strong $18.6 million. I predicted only $12.8M. Finally, Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor held up slightly better than my projection with $10 million in its second weekend (I estimated $8.9M).
In summation, this was a weekend where everything out there did better than I thought (an encouraging sign for the studios). Be sure to check back this week on the blog for next weekend’s box office predictions, when the Jackie Robinson biopic 42, Scary Movie V, and the Ryan Gosling/Bradley Cooper crime thriller The Place Beyond the Pines all open in wide release. Stay tuned!
I’ve spent my entire life reading and watching Roger Ebert.
My love of movies and particularly writing about films is due in no small measure to Roger Ebert.
The reason this blog exists has to a lot to do with Roger Ebert.
Over the next few days, a lot of appreciations will be written for Roger Ebert. They will talk about his importance in the movie world, which is hard to describe for just how significant it’s been.
I still wonder from time to time just why I became so interested in movies and writing about them. When I’m asked this question, two faces immediately come to mind: Gene Siskel and Roger Ebert.
I grew up watching their show. And taping their show. And re-watching their show.
I grew up buying Roger Ebert’s annual book that would be updated each year to include the new reviews. I would read it from cover to cover. And re-read it from cover to cover.
Until today, I would go to Roger’s website every Thursday to read his thoughts on the weekend’s new releases. We didn’t always agree (far from it), but I always wanted to know what Roger thought.
Roger Ebert was a brilliant writer. He’s the first movie critic to earn a Pulitzer Prize. Most importantly, he loved movies. Oh, he didn’t love every movie (far from it). But when Roger loved a movie, he championed it. He wanted others to experience the joy he experienced when he watched it.
I’ve seen many movies because of Roger Ebert and Gene Siskel. That’s what movie writers are supposed to do: expand a reader’s palate of movies they watch. Expose them to films they may not normally see.
And Roger Ebert had the kind of exposure to recommend great pictures to millions of readers and millions of viewers of his show.
The next days will bring about well-written pieces discussing the importance of Siskel&Ebert. They will discuss Roger’s brave final decade and his unimaginable health issues. And they will rightly discuss his place in film history which simply cannot be understated. He’s the most well-known and famous movie critic. Ever.
This evening, I just wanted to share my personal history regarding Roger Ebert. I know that I wouldn’t have the passion I do about movies if Roger Ebert had never existed. I’m sure glad he did. I’ve spent countless hours reading the words of Ebert. I’m sure glad they still exist on this Earth for me to re-read.
Every week on their program, Siskel and Ebert would end with the words “The balcony is closed.”
The first weekend of April brings the very real possibility of three movies being #1, with even an outside shot of a fourth taking the top spot. That is usually not the case when making predictions and this is shaping up to be a very interesting weekend.
For starters, we have the big debut of The Evil Dead remake. On Monday, I wrote an extensive post with my projection for the pic’s opening weekend. It can be found linked below for your review. In short, I’m predicting Dead debuts with just below $20 million.
Now… will that be enough for it to debut at #1? That depends on how far the Easter champ G.I. Joe: Retaliation falls in its second frame and also how far the animated The Croods drops in its third weekend.
The first G.I. Joe in 2009 dropped a hefty 59% in its second weekend. The sequel didn’t quite match the opening gross of its predecessor (while still posting a solid opening). However, audiences seem to like the follow-up more (it earned an A- Cinemascore grade to the original’s B+). I do believe Retaliation will dip over 50% in its sophomore frame, but not as far as the first did.
And there’s The Croods third weekend. The Dreamworks kiddie pic dropped a reasonable 39% last weekend and it could certainly drop that far or more this time around. Interestingly, a similar title from three years ago, How to Train Your Dragon, dropped a scant 14% in its third weekend. If The Croods dropped 25% or less, it would stand an excellent shot at returning to #1. It’s certainly possible, though I’m predicting it falls more than that.
Then there’s the return of 1993’s Jurassic Park to the multiplex. Celebrating its 20th anniversary, the Steven Spielberg dinosaur tale is getting a 3D makeover. A gross of over $20 million certainly isn’t outside of the realm of possibility. I’m skeptical. There certainly seems to be no shortage of the film’s availability on TV (not to mention DVD) and I’m just not sure audiences will flock to the theater to see it. I picture an opening between $10-$15 million.
Finally, Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor is likely to drop from third to fifth. Perry’s films usually have big openings and Temptation did so with an impressive $21 million last weekend. They also have large drops in their second frames (well over 50%, closer to 60%) and I expect Temptation will follow suit.
So how does it all shake out? Here’s my predictions for the top five this weekend:
1. The Evil Dead
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million
2. G.I. Joe: Retaliation
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)
3. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (representing a drop of 32%)
4. Jurassic Park 3D
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
5. Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 59%)
Be sure to check back this weekend for my update when the final numbers roll in!
The 20th century ended on a high note when it came to movies. 1999 marked a year filled with high quality material, including a game changing picture that was only victorious in the technical categories.
Sam Mendes’ American Beauty, the dysfunctional family drama, was the big winner.
It took Best Picture over The Cider House Rules, The Green Mile, The Insider, and The Sixth Sense. A very solid group of movies, to be sure.
And there’s plenty more that weren’t nominated that should have merited consideration. For starters, how about Spike Jonze’s completely original Being John Malkovich?
Or Pixar’s Toy Story 2, which garnered even better reviews than its beloved predecessor?
Then there’s Fight Club, David Fincher’s terrific black comedy that drew mixed reaction upon its release, but has since become a classic.
And there’s that “game changing” movie. That would be the Wachowski’s The Matrix, one of the most influential sci-fi pictures of all time. It upped the bar for all similar genre pictures that have followed since.
Sam Mendes would take director honors for Beauty, over Lasse Hallstrom for Cider House, Spike Jonze for Malkovich, Michael Mann for The Insider, and M. Night Shyamalan for Sixth Sense. The odd man out: Frank Darabont, whose Green Mile got the Picture nomination. Certainly, the Wachowskis and Fincher should have been given a look. And there’s Paul Thomas Anderson, whose challenging yet often remarkable Magnolia marked his follow-up to 1997’s Boogie Nights. 1999 also saw legendary director Stanley Kubrick’s final film, the Tom Cruise/Nicole Kidman sexual drama Eyes Wide Shut. Kubrick died in March ’99 and his swan song was released four months later. It received mixed critical and audience reaction (personally, I thought it was pretty great).
The American Beauty love fest would continue in the Best Actor race, with Kevin Spacey picking up the trophy just four years after he won Supporting Actor for The Usual Suspects. Other nominees: Russell Crowe for his excellent work in The Insider, Richard Farnsworth in The Straight Story, Sean Penn in Sweet and Lowdown, and Denzel Washington in The Hurricane. I probably would have given the edge to Mr. Crowe, but certainly Spacey gave a fine performance.
While The Sixth Sense was honored in the supporting categories, Bruce Willis’s understated performance that anchored the film was not recognized. And in keeping with my common theme in these posts, I would’ve honored comedy here and nominated Eddie Murphy’s work in Bowfinger.
In 1999, Hilary Swank was mostly known for starring as The Next Karate Kid in a badly received 1994 sequel. This would all change by fall of ’99 when Swank starred in Boys Don’t Cry, an independent feature casting the actress as a transgender character who is brutally raped and beaten.
Swank would win Best Actress, beating out frontrunner Annette Bening in American Beauty, as well as Janet McTeer in Tumbleweeds, Julianne Moore in The End of the Affair, and Meryl Streep in Music of the Heart.
Again, my feeling that comedy should be recognized would’ve extended to Reese Witherspoon’s fantastic performance in Alexander Payne’s Election.
The Supporting Actress race would recognize Angelina Jolie for her role in Girl, Interrupted. Other nominees: Toni Collette for The Sixth Sense, Catherine Keener in Being John Malkovich, Samantha Morton in Sweet and Lowdown, and Chloe Sevigny for Boys Don’t Cry.
Others that should have been considered: Cameron Diaz in Malkovich, Helena Bonham Carter in Fight Club, and Thora Birch, surprisingly shut out for American Beauty.
The Supporting Actor race was a close competition between Michael Caine in The Cider House Rules and Tom Cruise in Magnolia. Caine would take home the gold. Other nominees: Michael Clarke Duncan in The Green Mile, Jude Law in The Talented Mr. Ripley, and young Haley Joel Osment in Sixth Sense.
I definitely would have included John Malkovich for his work in (you guessed it!) Being John Malkovich. And on the subject of including comedic roles… um…. yeaaaaaah…. how about this guy (Gary Cole):
On a side note, the film that was expected to pick up all the technical categories in 1999 was the breathlessly awaited Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace. And then The Matrix came out with its mind boggling special effects work. The Matrix would earn awards for Editing, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. Star Wars? Zero.
An interesting battle could play out at the box office this weekend as The Evil Dead remake could potentially snag the #1 spot over the second weekend of G.I. Joe: Retaliation.
The horror remake has been quite the profitable sub-genre over the past decade as studios have mined popular flicks from the 70s and 80s. Here’s a breakdown of films over the past decade and what they’ve grossed in their opening weekends:
Friday the 13th (2009): $40 million
A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010): $32 million
The Texas Chainsaw Massacre (2003): $28 million
Dawn of the Dead (2004): $26 million
Halloween (2007): $26 million
The Amityville Horror (2005): $23 million
My Bloody Valentine (2009): $21 million
When a Stranger Calls (2006): $21 million
Prom Night (2008): $20 million
The Omen (2006): $16 million
The Hills Have Eyes (2006): $15 million
Left House on the Left (2009): $14 million
Here are the not very successful examples:
The Thing (2011): $8 million
Black Christmas (2006): $3 million
As you can see, for the most part, the horror remake can usually be counted on for an opening in the mid-teens or higher. Will that be the case for The Evil Dead?
The original is from 1981 and is an ultra low-budget and supremely gory Sam Raimi pic that’s a hell of a lot of fun. It spawned two well-regarded sequels, 1987’s Evil Dead 2 and 1993’s Army of Darkness. This trilogy of films are known just as much for their comedic aspects compared to the gore aspects, something that sets this franchise apart from the others.
When you look at the highest opening weekend grossers, you see the horror franchises representing Jason, Freddy, Michael Myers, and Leatherface. It’s not hard to figure out – these are the slasher classics of their era that spawned countless sequels. The remakes had the interest of moviegoers by title alone.
Younger folks (who typically make up a sizable portion of the horror flick audience) may not know a whole lot about The Evil Dead. And they certainly don’t to the degree that they know the aforementioned entries. Still, the trailers for The Evil Dead are pretty effective and even non-horror fanatics are probably aware the previous trilogy existed. Frankly, I think it looks pretty damn good and it currently sits at 79% on Rotten Tomatoes.
A better comparison for how The Evil Dead performs might just be last year’s The Cabin in the Woods, a slasher flick with comedic overtones that was clearly an homage to the original Dead. Cabin garnered very positive reviews, but managed a rather unimpressive $14.7 million opening.
Still, Evil Dead would appear heading towards a higher gross, though it’s very unlikely to match the numbers of the more well-known remakes. Anything above $25 million would be considered a terrific gross. It’s possible, but I don’t see it happening.
The Evil Dead seems more primed for a high teens to low-twenties opening weekend. Anything below $15 million would be considered pretty disappointing. Ironically, the budget is reported to be $15 million, so it’s bound to be profitable regardless.
A gross in the area that I’m predicting puts it on a crash course to have a close competition with G.I. Joe‘s sophomore weekend. Here is my estimate:
The Evil Dead opening weekend prediction: $19.8 million
On Wednesday, be sure to check back for my full weekend projections, where I’ll reveal whether or not I believe Evil Dead gets that #1 slot. Stay tuned!
It took just a few short weeks for Netflix to turn into a major player in the original TV series market.
This is all thanks to their series “House of Cards”, based on an earlier British show. I have already written one post about the program, published while I wasn’t even halfway through the first season’s 13 episodes. Without spoiling anything for those who haven’t seen it (and you should), I can tell you that “House of Cards” will be a huge factor at this year’s Emmys. Bet on it.
Kevin Spacey should and probably will be the equivalent of Daniel Day-Lewis for television this year, in the sense that he’s a definite frontrunner to win Best Actor. Expect co-stars Robin Wright, Kate Mara, and Corey Stull to also receive awards attention. And, of course, the directors, writers, and series itself should pick up nominations and possible wins.
Netflix is not required to release their viewership numbers in the way that networks and cable channels do. The company has said that “House of Cards” was a rousing success.
I believe it. Simply on anecdotal evidence, it seems like everyone where I work has watched (granted, I work in a political environment). It’s not just them, however. Many other friends have asked me about the series and revealed they’ve seen all 13 episodes. The common verdict? “Loved it.”
So did I. From its terrific performances, first-rate direction (that includes episodes from the brilliant David Fincher), sharp writing, and that great theme song that I couldn’t get out of my head, “House of Cards” delivers on all levels. I am so ready for Season Two.
Here’s another reason I trust Netflix’s assertions that the show was a hit: they’re greenlighting and producing more TV series.
On April 19th comes the horror/thriller series “Hemlock Grove” starring Goldeneye and X-Men actress Famke Janssen. It’s from executive producer Eli Roth (a Tarantino protege who directed the Hostel flicks). I can tell you I will certainly be watching episode 1 with the hope of binge-watching the series (like with “Cards”). The fact that Netflix hit it out of the park the first time around certainly contributes to my curiosity.
In May comes another Netflix series event: the return of “Arrested Development”, the critically-acclaimed FOX series that developed a deserved cult audience following its cancellation. Original stars Jason Bateman, Michael Cera, Portia de Rossi, Will Arnett, and others are back for the one-off season. The return of the show was at first being developed as a feature film until Netflix came calling.
In 2014, we’ll see at least two new dramatic series. Narcos focuses on the life of notorious drug dealer Pablo Escobar and Sense8 is a sci-fi series from the Wachowskis, directors of The Matrix trilogy and Cloud Atlas.
As mentioned, it took 13 episodes of “House of Cards” to change the reputation of Netflix in a more positive way. This isn’t just where you can find some cheesy horror flick from the 1980s you’ve never heard of… it’s a place where you can find top-quality original programming.
The Easter box office weekend went mostly as expected, with G.I. Joe: Relation opening on top with a solid gross of $51 million, just above my $49.5M projection. The sequel to the 2009 film posted good numbers, even though it’s unlikely to match the $150 million domestic gross of its predecessor.
Dreamworks animated The Croods dropped from the top spot to second, as expected. It earned $26.7 million, slightly lower than my $29.3M estimate.
Opening in third, as predicted, was Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor. The picture gave Perry his best non-Madea opening of all time, grossing an impressive $21.6 million, above my $19.2M projection. Apparently, unless the name of the movie is Alex Cross, Perry still has a lot of clout at the multiplex.
In fourth, Olympus Has Fallen grossed $14.1 million in its sophomore weekend. I incorrectly guessed the action thriller would not fall over 50% and predicted a $16.8 million weekend. The film dropped 53%. Still, Olympus is a hit, giving star Gerard Butler his first successful pic in quite some time.
The bad news of the weekend fell to The Host, based on Twilight author Stephanie Meyer’s book. I was actually pretty low on my prediction compared to other analysts, predicting a $15.7 million opening weekend gross. The Host bombed, managing a meager $10.6 million. With a discouraging “B-” Cinemascore grade, there’s no way for the studio to spin it: The Host is a dud. With that bad of an opening, the film only managed a sixth place debut (I predicted fifth) and Oz The Great and Powerful got the five spot with $11.7 million.
Be sure to check back this week on the blog for next weekend’s projections, when the horror remake The Evil Dead and the 20th anniversary re-release of Jurassic Park open. Stay tuned!
Funny thing how perception of what a film is supposed to be alters your view of it. When I saw Mary Harron’s American Psycho in 2000, I thought the picture was supposed to be a serious thriller about a serial killer. It’s not that.
When it didn’t match the genre wheelhouse I expected it to adhere to, I wasn’t sure how to react to what I’d just viewed. Not until I fully realized that American Psycho is meant to be a biting satire about 80s excess and materialism did I appreciate just how terrific the movie is.
I had a similar reaction to 1999’s Fight Club, which I certainly didn’t think was going to be more of a dark comedy than anything else. I’ve grown to love it.
Same with American Psycho. The film is special for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is Christian Bale’s absolutely stunning performance as Patrick Bateman, a NYC investment banker in the late 80s who is absolutely bonkers crazy.
The picture, based on the Bret Easton Ellis bestseller, portrays Bateman as a power hungry man who cannot handle that there’s people who have more power than he does. He has a meltdown when a colleague shows him a new business card that Patrick believes to be superior to his own.
I won’t go over all the plot details of American Psycho. I will say that if you haven’t seen it yet, you’re missing out on the career best performance of Bale. And, yes, I’ve seen The Fighter and The Dark Knight trilogy.
There are three scenes in Psycho that demonstrate the brilliance of Bale’s character to hilarious effect. They involve Bateman offering his critical take on the musical careers of Whitney Houston, Huey Lewis and the News, and Phil Collins/Genesis. All major artists in the late 1980s. All three sequences cut together are in the link below.
Bale’s performance is something to behold in these sequences. His acting coupled with the fabulous writing here make these scenes quite memorable. I have always loved how profound Bateman thinks he’s being when he extols the virtues of Whitney’s “Greatest Love of All” and compares Phil Collins’ solo work to his group work in Genesis. This is a man (a crazy one) who truly feels that all of his words are enlightening.
American Psycho has moments of true hilarity and these scenes are the prime example of them. Christian Bale is perfect in this role and his monologues on three popular 80s performers is Movie Perfection. Enjoy!
If Olympus Has Fallen has not completely given you your fill of films where the White House is taken over by terrorists, just wait a couple of months. In late June comes White House Down from Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow director Roland Emmerich. This one features Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx and is expected to be one of the summer’s biggest hits.
The Olympus/White House Down example of very similarly plotted movies is nothing new for film fans. Far from it…
Let us travel back to the 1980s where in 1987 and 1988, we got not one, not two, but THREE comedies about a teenager switching bodies with an older man. There was Like Father, Like Son with Dudley Moore and Kirk Cameron.
And Vice Versa with Judge Reinhold and “Wonder Years” star Fred Savage:
And 18 Again with George Burns and Charlie Schlatter:
None of them did too well at the box office, but Like Father, Like Son was the clear winner with $34 million, compared to Vice Versa‘s $13 million and 18 Again‘s anemic $2.5 million.
In 1989 and 1990, we were treated to two comedies about a cop being paired up with a dog. In ’89, it was Jim Belushi in K-9.
In ’90, it was Tom Hanks in Turner and Hooch.
It was Mr. Hanks for the win, as Turner and Hooch grossed $71 million and K-9 made a decent $43 million.
In 1992, Christopher Columbus: The Discovery and 1492: Conquest of Paradise both opened. They had some things in common: they were both about Christopher Columbus, for starters. They both featured some recognizable talent. The Discovery was conceived by Mario Puzo (author of The Godfather) and had a cast featuring Tom Selleck and Marlon Brando. Conquest of Paradise was directed by the great Ridley Scott, with a cast that included Gerard Depardieu and Sigourney Weaver. And… they were both huge box office disasters. With a $45 million budget, The Discovery grossed only $8 million domestically. With a $47 million budget, 1492 made only $7 million.
Late 1993 and summer 1994 gave us the battle of two Wyatt Earp films. There was a clear and unexpected winner. Tombstone starring Kurt Russell and Val Kilmer was not expected to gross more than Lawrence Kasdan’s Wyatt Earp with Kevin Costner and Dennis Quaid. Then a funny thing happened: Tombstone turned out to be a kick-ass Western that delighted audiences. By the time Wyatt Earp rolled around six months later, audiences had seen the Earp movie they wanted to. Tombstone made $56 million. Earp managed only $25 million.
1997 saw two volcano related disaster flicks. First, Dante’s Peak with Pierce Brosnan and Linda Hamilton.
Less than three months later came Volcano starring Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Heche.
Both had big budgets and were considered financial disappointments, though Dante’s Peak won the competition with $67 million. By the time Volcano made only $49 million, audience anticipation had clearly hollowed out (I’m sorry).
1998 featured two flicks about giant asteroids heading to Earth. First up: Mimi Leder’s Deep Impact with Tea Leoni and Morgan Freeman.
Two months later: Michael Bay’s Armageddon with Bruce Willis, Ben Affleck, and that Aerosmith song.
Both were commercial hits in the summer of ’98. Armageddon was the #1 grosser of the season with $201 million. Impact earned a solid $140 million.
That same year, moviegoers were treated to two animated pics about insects. There was Dreamworks Antz:
And, of course, Pixar’s A Bug’s Life:
Both titles were critical and commercial successes. Antz sits at 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and grossed $90 million. It couldn’t quite compete with Pixar, however. A Bug’s Life, while slightly lower on the Tomato meter with 92%, grossed $162 million.
The year 2000 gave us two sci-fi movies about Mars. There was Brian De Palma’s Mission to Mars starring Tim Robbins and Gary Sinise.
Then there was Red Planet with Val Kilmer and Carrie-Anne Moss.
Mission to Mars would win with a decent $60 million gross, while Red Planet bombed with only $17 million.
Just last year we saw dual Snow White live-action films. There was Mirror Mirror with a cast that included Julia Roberts and Armie Hammer. Geared more towards kids, Mirror Mirror managed a respectable $64 million.
Just a couple of months later was the more serious Snow White and the Hunstman starring Kristin Stewart, Charlize Theron, and Chris Hemsworth. It did considerably better to the tune of $155 million domestic.
There are other examples: 1998/1999 saw The Truman Show way outdoing EdTV, both about a guy whose life is a reality show. In 2006, the magician themed thriller The Prestige ($53 million) outdid The Illusionist ($39 million).
So the Olympus Has Fallen/White House Down phenomenon is nothing new. What path will this pair follow compared to the others mentioned? I’m predicting it’ll look most similar to Deep Impact/Armageddon. Deep Impact came first and grossed more than pundits predicted… just like Olympus is doing. There was little doubt, though, that Armageddon was the more high-profile pic and would gross more, with its major director and bigger stars. That is also the case with White House Down. We will know in June when Down debuts. Olympus Has Fallen is the first title of 2013 that I’ve seen (earlier this week) and I can tell you that I found it to be a fun throwback to 80s “hard R” action flicks. I hope White House Down is of the same quality.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 