Author: toddmthatcher

Need for Speed Box Office Prediction

Based on the most successful video game series of all time, this Friday’s Need for Speed hopes to bring in a good portion of the Fast and Furious franchise when it debuts. The car chase action fest showcases the first major starring role for “Breaking Bad” costar Aaron Paul with Dominic Cooper and Michael Keaton rounding out the cast.

It has been proven over and over again for the last two decades that a massive video game doesn’t translate into box office success – Super Mario Bros. anyone? However, Speed has done a decent job at marketing itself as a Fast and Furious type experience and that should allow it to have a pretty solid premiere.

Need for Speed could potentially approach the $30 million opening that Olympus Has Fallen achieved in March 2013. I believe a more likely scenario is somewhere in the mid 20s.

Need for Speed opening weekend prediction: $25.3 million

For my prediction on Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/09/tyler-perrys-the-single-moms-club-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Yes, the Oscar ceremony celebrating the best of film in 2013 was just four days ago. Yes, it’s entirely too early to start speculating on next year’s Oscars.

Or perhaps not because tomorrow brings us what could be the first legitimate Oscar contender of 2014. It comes in the form of Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Director/writer Anderson has a very loyal following that include most critics. Some of his acclaimed works include Bottle Rocket, Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and Moonrise Kingdom. All were favorites in the critical community. None have received a Best Picture nomination.

There may a feeling that Anderson is due and Budapest could be that movie. It stands at a solid 87% so far on Rotten Tomatoes. It also has one heckuva cast – with lead Ralph Fiennes joining Adrien Brody, Willem Dafoe, Jeff Goldblum, Harvey Keitel, Jude Law, Bill Murray, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Jason Schwarztman, Tilda Swinton, Tom Wilkinson, and Owen Wilson. In early reviews, Fiennes has particularly been singled out and we could hear his name mentioned as a Best Actor candidate.

The picture has a great shot at a Best Original Screenplay nomination where Anderson has been nominated twice before for Tenenbaums and Kingdom. It goes without saying, but there’s no way to currently know how good a year 2014 will turn out to be. It’s not even out yet, but I’ll say with confidence that Budapest wouldn’t have been nominated in 2013.

However, 2013 was a rather strong year. With the combination of an overdue feeling for Anderson and current positive buzz, this is 2014’s first Oscar contender.

Box Office Predictions: March 7-9

Family audiences and action fans are the target audiences this weekend as the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman and the sequel 300: Rise of an Empire premiere in theaters. It is likely to be a very tight race between the two pics for the #1 spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/300-rise-of-an-empire-box-office-prediction/

As you’ll see, I have Peabody edging out 300, but truth be told – it could easily go either way. As for holdovers, I would expect last weekend’s champ Non-Stop to lose a little less than half its audience. On the other hand, Son of God seems like the type of movie that is frontloaded with its target audience primed to see it during weekend #1. Therefore I expect a drop of over 50%. The competition from Peabody should cause the smash hit LEGO Movie to have its biggest drop yet.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

2. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.1 million

3. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)

The results from this past weekend represent what I believe is my best weekend of predictin’ in the history of the blog (pat on back). Liam Neeson’s Non-Stop took top honors with $28.8 million – right in line with my $28.2M estimate. At 61, Neeson is still proving himself to be one of the most bankable action stars in the world.

Son of God was runner-up with an impressive $25.6 million, just below my $26.7M prediction. In third after three weeks at #1 was The LEGO Movie with $20.8 million – on pace with my $20.5M projection. The four spot was Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill in its sophomore weekend with $4.9 million, in line with my $5.1M estimate.

The only place I went wrong was not including The Monuments Men in the top five. It took the five spot with $4.9 million. I had Robocop in fifth but it was sixth my $4.5 million (on par with my $4.6M prediction).

So kudos to me for the weekend! Let’s see if my predictions for this upcoming frame are anywhere close.

I’ll have final results on the blog a week from today.

300: Rise of an Empire Box Office Prediction

300: Rise of an Empire is a big question mark as it arrives in theaters this Friday. Will the sequel bring in a large audience almost exactly seven years after the original was a surprise smash?

Zack Snyder’s 300 shocked prognosticators in 2007 with a gargantuan $70 million debut on its way to a $210 million domestic total. The conventional wisdom is this follow-up won’t come close to that kind of performance and I agree with that. Seven years is a long time between sequels and I’m skeptical that there’s massive pent up anticipation for this.

Having said that, the name brand alone should get it beyond the $30 million mark for an opening. I say should because I’m still a little unsure. A $25 million debut wouldn’t shock me… and that would considered a pretty major letdown for Warner Bros. This was originally scheduled to premiere last summer, but was pushed back. The original director Snyder returns as producer and cowriter with Noam Murro taking over behind the camera duties. Newcomers to the franchise Sullivan Stapleton and Eva Green headline with holdovers from the first Lena Headey and Rodrigo Santoro costarring.

300 should find itself in a battle with the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman for #1. This could certainly capitalize on the goodwill that the first generated and blast past $40 million. However, I’m going towards the low end of predictions and saying it just gets passed the $30M range.

300: Rise of an Empire opening weekend prediction: $31.1 million

For my Mr. Peabody & Sherman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/

 

Mr. Peabody & Sherman Box Office Prediction

Based on a series of animated features from the 1960s that was highlighted on “The Rocky and Bullwinkle Show”, this Friday DreamWorks brings Mr. Peabody & Sherman to theaters. The film features the voices of Ty Burrell, Leslie Mann, Stephen Colbert, Mel Brooks, and others and will attempt to continue a hot run for animated flicks after megahits Frozen and The LEGO Movie.

The fact that family audiences have had plenty of solid choices lately could potentially hinder Peabody‘s grosses. For comparison sake, Fox’s The Croods debuted to $43 million in March of 2013. That would represent quite a victory for this if it could get that high. It’s possible, but I suspect Peabody won’t get past the $40 million mark. Reviews have been positive and that should help, but ultimately I think a premiere in the mid 30s is the most likely scenario here.

Mr. Peabody & Sherman opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million

For my 300: Rise of an Empire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/300-rise-of-an-empire-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s FINAL 2014 Oscar Winner Predictions

Here they are! My FINAL predictions in all categories (minus the short film races) for this year’s Academy Awards. Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve written individual posts predicting the six major categories. At the time, I said that those could change by final prediction time. None of them have.

However, the Best Picture race in particular has changed a bit in my mind. I believe the chances of Gravity emerging as the winner over 12 Years a Slave is greater than even a couple of days ago. As mentioned before, I see only those two pics and American Hustle as legit contenders for the award. My percentage chances have evolved though: I’d put 12 Years at 60%, Gravity at 25%, and Hustle at 15%.

These final predictions will reflect my pick for winner as well as my runner-up prediction in case I’m wrong. Let’s get right to it:

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Runner-Up: Gravity

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Runner-Up: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Runner-Up: Amy Adams, American Hustle

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Winner: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Runner-Up: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Winner: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Runner-Up: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Runner-Up: The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Winner: American Hustle

Runner-Up: Her

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Predicted Winner: The Great Beauty

Runner-Up: The Broken Circle Breakdown

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Predicted Winner: The Act of Killing

Runner-Up: 20 Feet from Stardom

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Predicted Winner: Frozen

Runner-Up: The Wind Rises

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: Nebraska

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Predicted Winner: American Hustle

Runner-Up: The Great Gatsby

BEST FILM EDITING

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: Captain Phillips

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Predicted Winner: Dallas Buyers Club

Runner-Up: Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: Her

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Predicted Winner: “Let It Go” from Frozen

Runner-Up: “No Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predicted Winner: The Great Gatsby

Runner-Up: Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: Captain Phillips

BEST SOUND MIXING

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: Captain Phillips

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

And there’s my final predictions for Sunday night, folks! I’ll have an update following the show outlining how I did.

The Not So Arnold Classics

For anyone living in the metropolitan area of Columbus as I do – you know that this weekend means a massive event called The Arnold Classic. It is a time when the smell of sweat and performing enhancing drugs fills the air. In reality, it’s a major convention that brings hordes of people from around the world and bundles of money to the city’s economy. And it’s the brainchild of Mr. Schwarzenegger – who still appears every year along with other celebs. In honor of the Classic last year, I penned a post celebrating the star’s greatest films and you can read it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/03/03/the-arnold-classics/

This year brings us to the flipside of that coin – “The Not So Arnold Classics”. These are five films that didn’t go so well for the Governator. The Terminator series, Predator, and Total Recall will forever be an integral part of his filmography. These won’t.

Batman and Robin (1997)

Generally and deservedly considered one of the worst blockbusters of all time, Batman and Robin represented a near death blow to the Caped Crusader franchise until Chris Nolan resurrected it years later. And Schwarzenegger’s main villain Mr. Freeze was a low point in which the actor spouted more awful puns than you could shake a popsicle at.

Conan the Destroyer (1984)

One of the actor’s first major roles was the well-received Conan the Barbarian in 1982. Two years later, this sequel did OK box office business but received damaging reviews. It’s generally considered a far inferior product than its predecessor – though it does costar Grace Jones and Wilt Chamberlain!

Junior (1994)

Schwarzenegger broke into comedy in a big way with director Ivan Reitman with megahits Twins and Kindergarten Cop. His third go-round with Reitman was a flop – Junior – in which he played the world’s first pregnant man. Costarring Twins partner Danny DeVito, it turned out audiences found the idea of the muscle bound Austrian with child rather unappealing. This has the distinction of being the worst story involving Arnold and a pregnancy that doesn’t involve his own nanny.

Last Action Hero (1993)

Coming fresh off the heels of his biggest hit, Terminator 2: Judgment Day, many expected Last Action Hero to be one of the largest blockbusters of 1993. However, bad word of mouth doomed the production to a meager $50 million take domestically. The action comedy isn’t as bad as its reputation, but it isn’t anything special either.

The Last Stand (2013)

After becoming Governor of California and taking an acting break, The Last Stand represented what was intended to be a comeback vehicle. It had been 10 years since Arnold had headlined any picture, but this flick costarring Johnny Knoxville went nowhere with audiences or critics. The $12 million domestic gross of Stand represents his lowest grossing movie (adjusted for inflation) ever.

And that’s the Not So Arnold Classics! For those in the Columbus area – enjoy the Classic. I’ll be where I usually am during a high-profile fitness competition… somewhere else.

 

 

Box Office Predictions: February 28-March 2

This final weekend of February/first weekend of March could provide a real showdown at the box office between Liam Neeson’s action pic Non-Stop and the Biblical pic Son of God. Both could be poised for healthy debut weekends and you can find my detailed predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/non-stop-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/son-of-god-box-office-prediction/

While my estimates put the newbies at spots 1 and 2 – if both underwhelm, it could open the door for a fourth week at the top spot for The Lego Movie. The rest of the top five is likely to be filled with holdover action flicks suffering pretty large drops.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $26.7 milion

3. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 21-23)

As for how I did this past weekend, The LEGO Movie did hold #1 for a third frame with $31.3 million, just below my $33.7M estimate. I vastly overestimated how well the rom com About Last Night would hold up in weekend #2. The Kevin Hart flick dropped a steep 70% to $7.5 million, well below my $13.6M prediction. Furthermore, I didn’t give enough credit to Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill. It debuted at second with an OK $12.2 million – well above my modest $7.7M projection. Newcomer Pompeii fared badly with a third place debut at only $10.3 million, below my $13.3M projection. In fourth was Robocop with $9.8 million, in line with $10.4M projection and rounding out the top five was The Monuments Men with $7.9M, under my $10.3M estimate.

As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday!

Son of God Box Office Prediction

Of the many dozens of box office predictions that I’ve made since I began this blog, I must admit that estimating a number for this Friday’s Son of God is among the most challenging.

Why? Well there’s several factors in play. There are already stories circulating that churches are buying mass quantities of tickets for their congregations. This would lead one to believe that its debut could be quite impressive. Any movie focusing on Jesus Christ and the Christian faith is destined to play well in the heartland but perhaps not as much on the coasts. The all-time top February opener was ten years ago with Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ, which earned $83 million in its first weekend.

Son of God shouldn’t come anywhere near that territory and this brings us to another factor in play. The movie itself is basically a cobbling together of scenes focusing on Jesus from last year’s History Channel miniseries “The Bible”. In other words, the vast majority of Son of God‘s material has already aired on a highly rated TV program. This fact begs the question: how much of the picture’s target audience are aware of this fact and will it lead to them perhaps skipping this?

Add it all up and this project from mega TV producer Mark Burnett and his actress wife Roma Downey has a very wide range of potential debuts. On the low end, we could see mid teens. On the high end… well who knows? This is precisely the type of project that could hugely exceed expectations and make something like $40 million out of the gate.

I will predict an opening in the mid to high 20s is most probable and it could certainly challenge both Non-Stop or The Lego Movie for box office dominance.

Son of God opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million

For my Non-Stop prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/non-stop-box-office-prediction/

Non-Stop Box Office Prediction

It was just over five years ago that Taken became a massive and unexpected hit and turned veteran actor Liam Neeson into a major action star. On Friday, we’ll see if his box office luck continues with Non-Stop. Neeson plays a federal air marshal dealing with a big ol’ crisis aboard an international flight. Julianne Moore and Oscar nominee Lupita Nyong’o costar.

Non-Stop has a rather modest $50 million budget that it should have no problem earning back and then some. Trailers for it have been pretty effective and the late February release date is good timing for action audiences hungry for something new.

Post Taken, Neeson’s star power has generated high teens to low twenties openings for Unknown and The Grey. I have an inkling that Non-Stop could go higher than that. By doing so, it should end the three week reign of The Lego Movie at #1. That’s if Son of God (the other newbie Friday) doesn’t open bigger and I’ll get to that one later today.

I don’t see Non-Stop debuting below $20 million and it wouldn’t shock me if it reached just above $30 million – but high 20s seems to be the most probable scenario.

Non-Stop opening weekend prediction: $28.2 million

For my Son of God prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/son-of-god-box-office-prediction/