Box Office Predictions: November 14-16

A comedy sequel 20 years in the making and a musical romantic drama hit the marketplace this weekend as Dumb and Dumber To and Beyond the Lights make their debuts. You can read my detailed predictions on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/dumb-and-dumber-to-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/beyond-the-lights-box-office-prediction/

My prediction for Dumb To is a bit lower than that of others and it stands a chance of opening #1. However, my estimate puts in a dogfight with Interstellar for the runner-up position with Disney’s Big Hero 6 remaining atop the charts. Hero should experience a smallish decline while Interstellar could lose close to 40% of its opening audience.

I’m predicting Beyond the Lights has a healthy debut at #4 (though others are putting it considerably lower than my projection) while Gone Girl should round out the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $38.9 million (representing a drop of 30%)

2. Dumb and Dumber To

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million

3. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $28.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Beyond the Lights

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 29%)

Box Office Results (November 7-9)

Two big new releases saw their debuts this past weekend and both managed to open under my estimates.

Disney’s Big Hero 6, as predicted, opened in first with a sturdy $56.2 million, a bit shy of my $61.4M estimate. Still, the animated pic should anticipate a robust run ahead.

Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar performed decently, but undeniably below most expectations. It earned $47.5 million, well under my $57.2M estimate (which was lower than plenty of other prognosticators). Since its Wednesday IMAX roll out, it’s made $49.6M. This opening indicates that Interstellar could struggle to reach $200M domestically, which would be a letdown.

In third was Gone Girl with $6.2 million in weekend #6, just over my $5.4M estimate. The David Fincher hit has amassed an impressive $145M so far.

I incorrectly didn’t have the eventual #4 or #5 in my top five as Ouija was fourth with $5.8 million and Fury fifth with $5.6 million. Their respective totals stand at $43M and $69M.

I had Nightcrawler in third, but it dropped to seventh in weekend #2. The Jake Gyllenhall grossed $5.3 million, on pace with my $5.4M projection and has earned $19M at press time.

As for the animated The Book of Life, I didn’t quite anticipate how much Big Hero 6 would eat into its audience. It grossed just $2.7 million for a tenth place showing, while I predicted it’d be fifth with $5.3M. Its total is at $45 million.

That’s all for now, friends!

Birdman Movie Review

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman has plenty to say about the current mega-blockbuster movie culture that we live in and have for some time. The screenplay (by the director along with Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., and Armando Bo) puts in its two cents regarding the power that critics have, which is highly debatable in the Internet culture. Ironically, while Inarritu and his team may share a disdain for them, it is likely the rave reviews and Oscar buzz Birdman has received that will grant it a larger audience than expected. Yet, ultimately, this picture will be remembered as a story of an actor trying to make a comeback while giving its actual star one humdinger of a real one.

That would be Michael Keaton in the kind of part that most actors dream about and never get to play. He’s Riggan Thomson, an aging celebrity known to the world for his role as Birdman in a series of wildly popular comic book flicks from two decades ago. As you can gather, this is not much of a stretch for Keaton himself who brought Batman to the masses a quarter century ago. In the present day, he’s directing, writing, and starring in a Broadway play based on a Raymond Carver short story. He sees it as an opportunity to make himself relevant again and yet he’s haunted by his famous alter ego. The production of the play is a mess, which reflects Riggan’s personal life. He employs his fresh out of rehab daughter (Emma Stone) as his assistant. One of his actresses is his girlfriend (Andrea Riseborough), who may or may not be carrying his child. His ex-wife (Amy Ryan) turns up from time to time. Riggan makes life difficult for his lawyer and “best friend” (Zach Galifianakis). And his main co-stars (Edward Norton and Naomi Watts) are action packed with emotional issues.

Birdman shows us an actor on the edge of sanity who is grappling with this massive undertaking of the play and dealing with his wilting fame. He feels like he’s doing something of utmost importance while those around him may not see it that way. The screenplay doesn’t shy away from humorously but honestly ribbing the healthy egos that actors are often known for displaying. Norton’s character could perhaps be based on himself, if you believe the gossip about how difficult he is to work with in real life.

While the pic pokes its dark humor from time to time at the superhero genre craze, it cheekily employs three actors who’ve been a part of them: Keaton, Stone (Gwen Stacy in Spider-Man), and Norton (The Incredible Hulk). And while Inarritu could feel those movies are just visual fluff, Birdman itself is a technical marvel, so to speak. There is a visual trickery to make the film seem like one long continuous take and the result from Emmanuel Lubezki’s camerawork is often hypnotic.

The supporting cast is uniformly top-notch. Every performance is rock solid and every actor gets their moments to shine. Let me there be no doubt though – this is Keaton’s show. People who describe themselves as “movie people” (pretentiously or not) all seem to have a Keaton affinity. Part of it could be that he’s the original Caped Crusader in the blockbuster area. Same goes for Beetlejuice. We’ve never seen him like this, but I believe we always suspected he was capable of this kind of amazing performance. Here, Keaton must balance portraying several alter egos and it’s a joy to witness.

Birdman is not necessarily a movie for the masses. Its pitch black humor could fall flat with some while others will deem it too inside baseball. The ending may be perfect to some viewers, but it took one step too far into unnecessary ambiguity for my taste. There’s a terrific scene when Riggan tells off The New York Times theater critic (Lindsay Duncan). On one hand, he feels liberated telling her what he really thinks of her high-mindedness and misguided sense of self importance. On the other, he’s terrified of her negative review. This explains Riggan’s character in a way – looking for liberation where he may not ever find it and scared as hell the whole time. That probably describes the way a lot of actors truly feel and Birdman drives that point home in an original, often funny, and constantly interesting ways.

***1/2 (out of four)

Beyond the Lights Box Office Prediction

This Friday’s Beyond the Lights represents a fine example of a film that could do absolutely nothing or greatly exceed expectations upon its debut. The romantic drama focusing on the music industry premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to positive reviews and it currently holds a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The cast includes Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Nate Parker, Minnie Driver, Danny Glover, and rapper Machine Gun Kelly.

The big question is whether or not Beyond the Lights reaches its African-American target audience. If so, I believe Lights could reach double digits when it rolls out on a relatively small 1600 screens Friday. Truth be told, this could simply not land with its intended audience and debut in the mid single digits.

However, I’m going the opposite way here. I believe the positive buzz and frequent TV spots I’ve seen will allow Lights to post a respectable debut and reach double digits.

Beyond the Lights opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million

For my Dumb and Dumber To prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/dumb-and-dumber-to-box-office-prediction/

Dumb and Dumber To Box Office Prediction

One of the most beloved comedic duos returns as Harry (Jeff Daniels) and Lloyd (Jim Carrey) blast back in theaters in Dumb and Dumber To, out Friday. The Farrelly Brothers are back in the director chairs as this sequel is released nearly 20 years after the original earned $127 million domestically. Kathleen Turner, Laurie Holden, and Rob Riggle are in the supporting cast.

A lot has changed in those two decades. At the time, Carrey was a box office force as Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, and the first Dumber all were huge hits in 1994. In the last decade or so, Carrey’s power has waned. His last traditional comedic release, 2008’s Yes Man, couldn’t break the $100M dollar mark. We’re a long ways away from even 2003 when his Bruce Almighty could debut to $67 million. And it’s important to remember that to a young generation of moviegoers, a high-profile Carrey release is something they’re not accustomed to rushing out to the multiplex to see.

Having said that, 1994’s Dumb and Dumber is arguably the actor’s most fondly remembered release with its constant rotation on cable TV and the great work of Jeff Daniels is part of the reason as well. The most fair comparison to how Dumb To could perform may well be last year’s Anchorman sequel (another cherished comedy) which got off to a $28M traditional Friday to Sunday start.

Rolling out in approximately 3000 theaters, the Anchorman number is just about where I see this premiering. It could certainly reach past $30M, but I’ll put it just under that.

Dumb and Dumber To opening weekend prediction: $29.2 million

For my Beyond the Lights prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/beyond-the-lights-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 7-9

After a sleepy Halloween weekend at the box office, November will bring some much needed fireworks to the multiplex as two eagerly awaited release debut Friday. They are Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar and Disney’s animated Big Hero 6. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/interstellar-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/big-hero-6-box-office-prediction/

The big question is: which one will open #1? I have Interstellar just outdoing what Gravity accomplished last year, while putting Big Hero 6 roughly in the middle of the opening weekends of Wreck-It Ralph and Frozen. That means I’m predicting Hero will edge out Interstellar for the top spot, though other prognosticators feel differently.

As for the remainder of the top five, there should be a grouping of pics that all make in the $5M range jockeying for position. I’ll predict current #1 Ouija and #3 Fury drop out.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $61.4 million

2. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $57.2 million

3. Nightcrawler

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)

As mentioned, it was a quiet weekend at the box office as Ouija managed to stay #1. The critically reviled horror flick took in $10.7 million in weekend #2, ahead of my $8.8M estimate. It’s taken in $46 million so far, which is terrific considering its tiny budget.

The critically acclaimed Jake Gyllenhall thriller Nightcrawler debuted in second with a decent $10.4 million, above my $8.1M projection. While reviewers dug it, its weak B- Cinemascore indicates a rather tough road ahead.

Other holdovers all managed to outpace my predictions for the weekend. Fury was third with $8.8 million (I predicted $7.7M). It’s taken in $60 million so far. Gone Girl was fourth with $8.4 million – compared to my $7.4M estimate. It’s up to $136M domestically and has become David Fincher’s highest grossing film stateside. The Book of Life was fifth with $8.2 million, compared to my $7.1M projection (it stands at $40M).

In weekend two, Keanu Reeves’s action pic John Wick was sixth at $7.9 million, in line with my $7.3M prediction. Its two week total is at $27M. Bill Murray’s St. Vincent help up considerably better than my $4.6M estimate as it earned $7.2 million. The comedy/drama has made $19M. In eighth was Alexander and his long title of a bad day with $6.5 million, ahead of my $4.4M projection. It’s earned $53M.

On the other hand, when it came to newbies – I vastly gave two of them too much credit. The Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep stumbled with only $1.8 million for a 15th place debut. I predicted $3.5M. And the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw gained no traction with a pathetic $650,000 for a 20th place opening. I thought it would manage $4.1M. Oops.

That’s all for now, friends!

Big Hero 6 Box Office Prediction

In case you didn’t know, Disney and animation seem to go pretty well together most of the time and this Friday, the studio rolls out Big Hero 6. Based on a Marvel comic, the superhero comedy will attempt to debut at #1 amid strong competition from Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar. 

It’s got a very good shot. Disney animation has been on a massive hot streak lately and their 2013 fall entry, Frozen, took in $400 million domestically. Big Hero 6 is getting solid reviews from critics and it currently sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The $150 million budgeted feature seems unlikely to gross the $67 million that Frozen managed last November, though it’s certainly not out of the question. I do, however, feel it should have no problem topping the $49 million earned by Wreck-It Ralph in 2012.

My prediction reflects a belief that Big Hero 6 should manage a healthy debut with a long and prosperous run ahead. And I do believe it will open #1, just over Interstellar.

Big Hero 6 opening weekend prediction: $61.4 million

For my prediction on Interstellar, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/interstellar-box-office-prediction/

Interstellar Box Office Prediction

One of the most eagerly awaited titles of the year arrives Friday when Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar blasts into theaters. The science fiction epic stars recently minted Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey, Anne Hathaway, Jessica Chastain, and Nolan mainstay Michael Caine, among others.

Nolan, of course, is best known for his massive Dark Knight trilogy. He is one of the few directors around whose name sells tickets. Of course, Interstellar is not expected to come near the box office grosses of his Batman flicks. A more fair benchmark may well be 2010’s Inception, which opened to $62 million on its way to a $292 million domestic haul.

The picture currently sits at a respectable though unspectacular 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. The TV ads and trailers certainly succeed at marketing Interstellar as an “event movie” while maintaining Nolan’s desired secrecy prior to release. Reaching the Inception take of above $60M is certainly a major possibility, but my gut feeling reflects a belief that its debut will be more in line with Gravity last year. That film opened with $55.7 million in October of 2013. There could be a real battle for #1 next weekend with Disney’s Big Hero 6 premiering as well and I believe it’ll likely edge out Interstellar. Still – Nolan’s pic should enjoy a very solid roll out.

Interstellar opening weekend prediction: $57.2 million

For my Big Hero 6 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/big-hero-6-box-office-prediction/

Top 90 Hip Hop Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 10-1

Well we started from the bottom, but now we’re here – at the top ten of my personal favorite hip hop singles of the 1990s decade! It’s been a lot of fun recounting the fabulous hits of the decade that saw hip hop move from what some thought was a fad to a phenomenon that is here to stay. If you missed any of my previous eight posts covering numbers 90-11, you can find ’em here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/23/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-90-81/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/24/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-80-71/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/25/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-70-61/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-60-51/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/27/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-50-41/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/28/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-40-31/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/30/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-30-21/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/31/top-90-hip-hop-songs-of-the-1990s-nos-20-11/

And now – the Top Ten!!

10. “My Name Is” by Eminem (1999)

Slim Shady burst onto the hip hop scene with his first amazing single with production work from Dr. Dre. He would dominate the following decade, but this is where it all started.

9. “Jump Around” by House of Pain (1992)

With production by DJ Muggs of Cypress Hill, Everlast and company had a smash hit with this party starter.

8. “O.P.P.” by Naughty by Nature (1991)

We still may not know what it really stands for, but Naughty by Nature gave us their true classic with their first single off their self-titled debut album.

7. “It Was a Good Day” by Ice Cube (1993)

Mr. Cube had a classic with this lyrically brilliant cut about a typical day in the life of a rapper.

6. “Juicy” by The Notorious B.I.G. (1994)

The debut single from his iconic Ready to Die debut album, “Juicy” announced the presence of a rap god that we lost too soon.

5. “California Love” by 2Pac featuring Dr. Dre and Roger Troutman (1996)

Much like Biggie, we also lost the unforgettable 2Pac soon. “California Love” was the smash hit first single off All Eyez on Me with production from Dre and a terrific Road Warrior inspired music video.

4. “Mama Said Knock You Out” by LL Cool J (1991)

He’d been here for years with some in the rap community doubting him, but LL Cool J gave us this hard hitting and magnificent cut that serves as his signature track.

3. “Mind Playing Tricks on Me” by Geto Boys (1991)

The highest charting single from this innovative Houston rap group, “Mind Playing Tricks on Me” is flat out brilliant.

2. “I’ll Be There for You/You’re All I Need To Get By (Razor Sharp Mix)” by Method Man featuring Mary J. Blige (1995)

A remix of a track off his Tical album, Wu-Tang member Method Man teamed with Mary J. Blige and producer RZA to come up with an unforgettable take on the Marvin Gaye/Tammi Terrell 1968 hit.

1. “‘Nuthin but a ‘G’ Thang” by Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg (1992)

The 1990s decade was in many ways dominated by Death Row and Dr. Dre. This first single off The Chronic (the album of the 1990s in hip hop) with Dre and Snoop trading rhymes earns its rightful place atop the best singles.

And there you have it, friends! My work is done here. Hopefully, at the least, this list gave you some iTunes fodder or reminded you just how great certain tracks were back in the day. Until next time…

 

Top 90 Hip Hop Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 20-11

The Top 20 has arrived in my personal Top 90 hip hop singles of the great 1990s decade! Please feel free to peruse my other entries by scrolling through the blog or clicking the Music tab to review numbers 90-21. We’ll get to the Top 10 tomorrow (!), but here are the fabulous tracks comprising nos. 20-11:

20. “Tha Crossroads” by Bone Thugs n Harmony (1996)

The Cleveland rap group’s tribute to their founder, Eazy-E, was a soulful summer anthem of 1996.

19. “Now That We Found Love” by Heavy D and the Boyz  featuring Aaron Hall (1991)

This Teddy Riley produced dance hit marked a career highlight from the late Heavy D… and his Boyz.

18. “Scenario” by A Tribe Called Quest (1992)

The brilliant hip hop group had their best known track with this banger that featured an amazing verse from one Busta Rhymes.

17. “Regulate” by Warren G. featuring Nate Dogg (1994)

Fantastically sampling Michael McDonald’s “I Keep Forgettin'”, Warren G and Nate Dogg burst onto the west coast scene with this classic from the Above the Rim soundtrack.

16. “Hypnotize” by The Notorious B.I.G. (1997)

The first single off 1997’s Life After Death found Biggie rapping over a sample from Herb Alpert’s groovy “Rise”.

15. “Put Your Hands Where My Eyes Could See” by Busta Rhymes (1997)

Mr. Rhymes has given us plenty of terrific rap tunes, but this first single of his When Disaster Strikes album is his finest hour.

14. “Hard Knock Life” by Jay-Z (1998)

Shawn Carter is one of the few MC’s alive who could take a sample from Annie and make it relevant to his music. And did he ever!

13. “The Rain (Supa Dupa Fly)” by Missy Elliot (1997)

Our first taste of the incredible collaboration between Missy and producer Timbaland, this is an impossibly infectious groove from the best female rapper we’ve likely ever seen.

12. “So What’cha Want” by the Beastie Boys (1992)

So many unforgettable tracks, yet the Boys second single from their Check Your Head project is perfect.

11. “What’s My Name?” by Snoop Dogg (1993)

Mix Dre’s production with Snoop’s natural flow and this first single from his debut smash Doggystyle has everything you’d want.

Top Ten tomorrow, friends! Until then…

Top 90 Hip Hop Songs of the 1990s: Nos. 30-21

We’re into the Top 30 of my personal top 90 hip hop singles of the 90s decades! If you’ve missed any of the entries covering numbers 90-31, you can peruse them by clicking the Music tab on the blog or simply scrolling through.

Let’s bring it:

30. “Big Poppa” by The Notorious B.I.G. (1995)

One of Biggie’s signature tunes from his Ready to Die debut album, this gave the brilliant rapper his most prominent nickname.

29. “Bring the Pain” by Method Man (1994)

One of the stars of Wu-Tang Clan, this was Meth’s first single from his acclaimed Tical album.

28. “Insane in the Brain” by Cypress Hill (1993)

Cops come and try to snatch Cypress Hill’s crops (likely marijuana) in the group’s best known hit.

27. “Fu-Gee-La” by Fugees (1996)

The lead single from Wyclef, Lauryn, and Pras’s landmark album The Score.

26. “The Choice Is Yours” by Black Sheep (1991)

Engine engine… number 9… Black Sheep had an amazingly catchy smash with this release.

25. “The Humpty Dance” by Digital Underground (1990)

Digital Underground released their signature tune that memorably described lead rapper Shock G’s proclivity to do things at Burger King that didn’t involve typical menu ordering.

24. “Triumph” by Wu-Tang Clan (1997)

The RZA led hip hop super group showcased the talents of all its rappers on the first single off their Wu-Tang Forever album.

23. “Rosa Parks” by Outkast (1998)

The lead single off Aquemini offered one of the most commercial and catchy tracks from Andre 3000 and Big Boi.

22. “Can’t Truss It” by Public Enemy (1991)

Many PE fanatics might rank other songs higher, but this has always remained my personal favorite track from the iconic group.

21. “Deep Cover” by Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg (1992)

The world got its first taste of the Dre/Snoop combo in this title song from a 1992 Laurence Fishburne crime thriller. Rap would never be the same.

And that’ll do it for now! We’ll enter the top 20 tomorrow…