Author: toddmthatcher

Box Office Predictions: May 29-31

For the last week of May, we have two more entries into the Summer Box Office Derby: disaster action pic San Andreas starring Dwayne Johnson and the Bradley Cooper/Emma Stone rom com Aloha. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/22/san-andreas-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/23/aloha-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Andreas should easily dominate the weekend. The wild card is Aloha, but I have it grossing in the high teens for a fourth place debut. All holdovers will likely experience the typical hefty declines for the post Memorial Day weekend. Current champ Tomorrowland may have the most pronounced dip due to lackluster buzz (more on that below) and I’m predicting all currently released top five dwellers will fall over 50% from the four day holiday frame. It could be quite a tight race for the #2 spot.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. San Andreas

Predicted Gross: $43.4 million

2. Tomorrowland

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 51%)

4. Aloha

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

5. Mad Max: Fury Road

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (May 22-25)

It was a disappointing Memorial Day weekend at the box office as Brad Bird’s polarizing Tomorrowland topped the charts with a ho-hum $42.7 million, just under my $44.6M projection. The Disney fantasy has received both mixed reaction from critics and audiences alike and its long term prospects don’t look great.

On the flip side, last week’s champ Pitch Perfect 2 continued its truly magnificent run with $38.3 million over the holiday weekend (above my $32.8M estimate), bringing its two weeks total to $125.7M, nearly double what the original made in its whole domestic run.

Mad Max: Fury Road also held up better in its second weekend with $31.3 million, ahead of my $25.5M prediction. The acclaimed reboot has amassed $94.7M.

Avengers: Age of Ultron took $28.2 million (in line with my $26.6M estimate) and the Marvel title’s four week total stands at $411.4M.

Finally, the horror remake Poltergeist had a fair start with $26.3 million, not quite matching my prediction of $29.3M. Look for it to drop quickly, as most horror titles tend to do.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Noah Movie Review

Darren Aronofsky’s Noah combines the work of a truly talented filmmaker with one of the more well-known tales in Biblical history. It’s an audacious undertaking by both the director and the studio who were willing to budget it at a reported $125 million. For fans of Aronofsky, it is impossible to imagine him going the safe route with this story and he doesn’t. From Pi to Requiem for a Dream to The Fountain to The Wrestler to Black Swan, the auteur has given us challenging and rewarding pictures consistently. Those same adjectives apply in this case, even if the film ultimately drowns under the weight of its aspirations and own flat-out weirdness.

Russell Crowe gives a sturdy performance as the title character, who receives a message from The Creator to take his wife and children on an ark along with duos of the Earth’s creatures. He believes that God has sent word to punish all other humans for their sins. Noah soon becomes convinced that all mankind, including himself and his family and even his unborn grandchildren, must perish too. This creates eventual dissention with his loved ones, especially his son Ham (Logan Lerman) and adopted daughter Ila (Emma Watson). Even his wife Naameh (Jennifer Connelly, once again playing spouse to a strong-willed Crowe character) comes to doubt him.

Further complicating matters is tubal-Cain (Ray Winstone), who leads his followers on a revolt to take the ark themselves. They certainly do not share Noah’s vision of the future and do all they can to disrupt it. Noah receives protection from The Watchers, who are a strange-looking monstrous group of stone creatures. More assistance is provided by Noah’s grandfather played by Anthony Hopkins in some serious old age makeup.

Noah the movie is primarily focused on the inner conflict that Noah the man feels with his God-given vision. Yet along with it comes some battle scenes that could have fit with a Lord of the Rings pic and lots of digital animals that look – well, extremely digital. The effect on the viewer is a bit discombobulating. Biblical purists looking for a straightforward retelling from the Book of Genesis best look elsewhere – like the source material. Moviegoers wishing for something like a Tolkien-esque experience only get it in glimpses.

The picture is undoubtedly the work of a true artist whose very idea to make this is pretty bold. Not as bold, however, as what he’s pulled off before with more satisfactory and deeper results. Noah will surely hold your interest with its often bizarre mix of fight scenes, family drama, sometimes mediocre CGI, dream sequences, creation montages, and supreme British acting. For this gifted director, though, a massive budget and familiar story don’t equal anything close to his finest work.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Macbeth

The 2015 Oscar race, still in its infancy, got a dose of Shakespeare today at the Cannes Film Festival when Macbeth premiered. The adaptation comes from director Justin Kurzel and features Michael Fassbender as the title character with Marion Cotillard as Lady Macbeth. Both performers have immediately vaulted to the top of the list for Best Actor and Actress. The film itself has received early raves and could be a contender for the big race. If so, it’d be the first screen treatment by the author to be recognized since 1968’s Romeo & Juliet.

This would mark Fassbender’s second nomination after being in the Supporting Actor mix in 2012 for 12 Years a Slave. For Cotillard, it would mark her second Actress nod in two years as she made the cut last year for Two Days, One Night. She won the award in 2007 for La Vie en Rose. It is only May and yet we may already know two of the nominees in those categories – Fassbender and Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl for Actor and Cotillard and Cate Blanchett for Carol in the Actress race.

Per usual, the Cannes fest has given us another Academy hopeful in the form of Macbeth.

Aloha Box Office Prediction

In a career spanning over a quarter century, Cameron Crowe has given us critical darlings like Say Anything, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous. Yet it’s been some disappointments in recent years from the director including Elizabethtown and We Bought a Zoo. Where will this Friday’s Aloha place?

That remains to be seen. With less than a week before its premiere, I’m a little surprised no reviews have yet to surface and it does create a bit of skepticism. The romantic comedy/drama will attempt to bring in a female audience and the all star cast won’t hurt. Bradley Cooper is hot off the biggest grosser of 2014, American Sniper. Emma Stone is fresh off Oscar attention for Birdman. And the supporting players consist of Rachel McAdams, Bill Murray, Alec Baldwin, John Krasinski and Danny McBride.

Aloha is a somewhat odd release for late May as it would appear to be more suited for a fall release. Still, the cast alone should get it close to $20 million for a decent debut.

Aloha opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million

For my San Andreas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/22/san-andreas-box-office-prediction/

San Andreas Box Office Prediction

The disaster flick that was popularized so effectively in the 1970s returns in summer 2015 with San Andreas, opening Friday. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, fresh off megahit Furious 7, stars in a reunion with his Journey 2: The Mysterious Island director Brad Peyton. Carla Gugino and Paul Giamatti costar. The $100 million budgeted pic will attempt to break out in a season where most action fare is sequels and reboots.

It could work. The trailers and TV spots have at the least indicated that the budget is up there on the screen. And it certainly doesn’t hurt that Johnson has been omnipresent in front of moviegoers with the enormous Furious franchise.

As I see it, a debut above $40 million would be a win for Warner Bros. International grosses should be solid as well. I think San Andreas will just manage to top that number and will look to top the box office frame during May’s final weekend.

San Andreas opening weekend prediction: $43.4 million

For my Aloha prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/23/aloha-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Inside Out

The Cannes Film Festival has given us yet another Oscar contender in its screening process today and it’s a relatively unexpected one: Disney/Pixar’s latest certain summer blockbuster Inside Out. The computer animated feature premieres statewide June 19.

There’s never much doubt that Pixar flicks are going to make a boatload of cash. And it is also a virtual certainty that their products become automatic contenders, if not outright front runners, for the Academy’s Animated Feature race. Based on reviews streaming from the south of France, Inside Out is undoubtedly going to be nominated in that category. Yet a nomination in Best Picture seems much more possible today than it did yesterday.

Inside Out features the voices of Amy Poehler, Bill Hader, Mindy Kaling, and Lewis Black, among others. The story is told inside the mind of an 11 year old girl and explores the joys and challenges of her young life. Critics so far have been over the moon with one prominent writer proclaiming it’s the studio’s finest effort since 2009’s Up. Variety went as far to proclaim it as “the greatest idea” that Pixar has ever hatched. Strong words indeed.

The Up comparison is likely no accident as it shares the same director, Pete Docter. Up was the last Pixar product he directed and it is the only one of the bunch that received a Picture nomination. That bodes well for Inside Out if the fawning praise continues, which is probable.

Usually it is dramatic material and independent pictures that gather steam at Cannes. Today it was the studio that Mickey built gaining momentum.

Box Office Predictions: May 22-25

The four day Memorial Day weekend at the box office promises to be a fascinating one as Disney’s Tomorrowland and horror reboot Poltergeist enter the marketplace in competition with holdover hits Pitch Perfect 2, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Avengers: Age of Ultron. It could easily create a situation where all top five films over the holiday frame post numbers north of $25 million. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Tomorrowland and Poltergeist here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/15/tomorrowland-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/16/poltergeist-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Tomorrowland will manage to top the charts, though it could face competition from Pitch Perfect 2. That musical comedy sequel performed way above expectations this weekend (more on that below) and depending on its drop, could contend for the #1 position, especially if Tomorrowland doesn’t meet projections. That said, I do have Pitch losing over half its audience due to its front loaded amazing start.

My estimate for Poltergeist is a bit on the low end compared to others and I have it debuting third. As for other holdovers, Avengers: Age of Ultron and Mad Max: Fury Road could find themselves in a close race for the four spot, but I’ll give the slight edge to Marvel’s heroes.

And with that, my top five predictions for the four day, Friday to Monday holiday weekend:

1. Tomorrowland

Predicted Gross: $44.6 million

2. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Poltergeist

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million

4. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Mad Max: Fury Road

Predicted Gross: $25.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (May 15-17)

As mentioned above, Pitch Perfect 2 had a shockingly great opening with $69.2 million. This marks the largest opening ever for a musical and third biggest comedic debut in history. Even more impressively, it made more in its first three days than its 2012 predecessor made in its entire domestic run ($65M). Perfect soared above my $42M projection and you can rest assure a third edition will be forthcoming.

Mad Max: Fury Road had to settle for a second place start far behind Pitch, but its $45.4 million haul is nothing to be ashamed of. And neither, ladies and gentleman, was my prediction… $45.4M million! Gold star! This is a solid debut for a reboot of a franchise that had been dormant for thirty years and its international grosses have impressed as well.

Avengers: Age of Ultron dropped to third after two weeks on top with $38.8 million, just above my $36.8M prediction. The Marvel tale has amassed $372M so far. The Reese Witherspoon comedy flop Hot Pursuit was fourth with $5.7 million in its sophomore frame, below my $7.2M estimate. The critically drubbed flick’s gross is at just $23M. Furious 7 was fifth with $3.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five (its overall is at $343M). I had holdover The Age of Adaline at fifth with $4.1 million, but it was seventh with $3.1M (current earnings: $37M).

And that’s all for now, folks! Enjoy your holiday weekend!

Focus Movie Review

Like the many con artist tales before it, Focus is filled to the brim with twists and turns and diversions that constantly keep you guessing. In the best of these genre tales, you leave marveling at how the con was pulled and it manages to hold up under close inspection. That’s not really the case in this movie. There are surprises to be had for sure and some don’t really make a lick of sense.

Therefore it’s a bonus to have beautiful and talented stars like Will Smith and Margot Robbie starring and lovely scenery in Buenos Aires to entertain our eyes. They play a pair of con artists whose resumes differ tremendously. Nicky (Smith) is a pro with a team of people under him whose family lineage consists of those who share the profession. Jess (Robbie) is just getting started in the business and her experience as we open consists mostly of picking pockets. The two form an alliance in every sense imaginable and he takes her under his wing. Yet his sense of not getting too close to anyone puts a sudden stop to their romantic and professional partnership.

Flash forward to three years later where our leads finally see each other again in Buenos Aires. Nicky is working for a billionaire race car owner (Rodrigo Santoro) whose enlisted his help to fix a competition. Jess is dating him. Of course, as is tradition in these pictures, nothing is really as it seems and there are twists aplenty.

Focus doesn’t add anything new to this well worn genre. It manages to coast amiably on the charms of Smith and Robbie. It’s worth noting that our Fresh Prince is quite a bit more subdued than normal. he acquits himself just fine and has solid chemistry with the game Robbie, who we first noticed in her terrific performance in Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street.

Gerald McRaney (TV’s Major Dad!) is the bad guy’s head of security whose character provides one of the more head scratching surprises, but the performance itself is solid. Adrian Martinez provides some entertaining comic relief as one of Nicky’s employees and B.D. Wong is fun in a cleverly constructed con scheme sequence set at the Super Bowl.

Simply put, there’s nothing very special or unique to see here in Focus and the more serious tone shift in the third act is jarring. Luckily the actors do enough here to keep your attention in… well, you know the rest.

*** (out of four)

The Ethan Hunt Files – Mission: Impossible II

Over two years ago on this here blog, when it was in its infancy, I did the 007 Files where I wrote individualized blog posts on all 23 Bond flicks. That got me thinking about other series I could do the same with and in January 2013, I started The Ethan Hunt Files and wrote about the first Mission: Impossible pic from 1996.

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/01/31/the-ethan-hunt-files-mission-impossible/

I had every intention of writing about the other three in short order. For whatever reason I did not follow up. With the fifth M:I picture Rogue Nation debuting in July, I decided it was time to resume this series of posts and we continue with Mission: Impossible II from the summer of 2000…

And what an interesting film it is, especially considering the franchise entries that preceded it and followed it. M:I II stands out as the strangest pic in the series and the one that fits in least with the rest. Two words explain the main reason for this: John Woo. The acclaimed action director took over directing duties from Brian De Palma for the second picture and didn’t have an ounce of hesitation about turning it into a bonafide Woo affair with all the slow motion shots, quick cuts, and (yes) doves that come along with it. There are certainly some similarities to the original – foremost of which is the continuation and multiplication of those fancy face masks.

Unlike Mission 1, here we have Tom Cruise’s Ethan in a romantic relationship with the gorgeous Nyah (Thandie Newton), a jewel thief who is the ex of Sean Ambrose (Dougray Scott), an IMF agent gone bad who Ethan is after. Ambrose has stolen a nasty virus called Chimera, as well as its antidote, in an effort to make billions on the pharmaceutical market. Nyah is enlisted to get back in the good graces of her evil ex to get information, but not before she falls in love with Ethan first. They do so during a car chase in which Ethan nearly kills her, then kisses her. It happens.

Ethan is given his mission by the new head of IMF, played by Anthony Hopkins in what is essentially a glorified cameo. Our hero is conflicted by sending Nyah into such a dangerous mission. This all might’ve worked a bit better if the chemistry between Cruise and Newton felt authentic. We simply have zero investment in their romance and by the time Nyah bravely infects herself with the virus, you don’t really mind if Chimera wins. And a lot of the film could have been improved if Scott’s performance as our head villain wasn’t so utterly unremarkable. Some may know that M:I II’s production went into overtime and it forced Dougray Scott to be dropped from playing Wolverine in that same summer’s X-Men. An unknown actor named Hugh Jackman stepped in at the last minute. This is a good thing and Scott went from the next potential Wolverine to that dull M:I II villain that kinda looks like Ewan McGregor.

Ving Rhames returns as Luther, Ethan’s fellow agent who excels in counting down the clock as Hunt performs those impossible stunts. Rade Serbedvija gives a somewhat delightfully off kilter performance as the doctor who created Chimera and Brendan Gleeson is the nefarious owner of the corporation exploiting the virus for financial gain.

The De Palma Mission was a rock solid spy thriller anchored by three first rate action centerpieces: the aquarium sequence, the Langley infiltration and the train finale. In part two, there’s the bio chem lab sequence and the motorcycle chase finale that are front and center.

Neither are as memorable as anything from the previous effort. There’s also the Cruise rock climbing business in the beginning which basically exists so its stunt loving star can look cool rock climbing.

In hindsight, M:I II is easily the weakest link of this franchise. It doesn’t much feel like a Mission feature anymore as much as a John Woo movie with Ethan Hunt in it. Acclaimed screenwriter Robert Towne (who cowrote the first) has sole credit here and a hefty portion of the dialogue, particularly Newton’s, is a bit cringe worthy. Mission: Impossible II has enough fairly cool action to satisfy your average teenage boy, but it pales next to the rest of the Missions. And there’s no excuse for Limp Bizkit reworking that classic TV series theme either.

So while its reputation has deservedly soured in recent times, that didn’t stop part two from becoming a huge global success and earning over half a billion worldwide. It also was the highest domestic grosser of summer 2000 and virtually guaranteed a third go round for Hunt and his IMF team.

Here are the facts:

Film: Mission: Impossible II

U.S. Release Date: May 24, 2000

Director: John Woo

Screenplay: Robert Towne

Budget: $125 million

Worldwide Box Office: $546.3 million

The Ethan Hunt files will return with Mission: Impossible III

Oscar Watch: Carol

The Cannes Film Festival is happening right now across the pond and this weekend a sure fire Oscar contender was born. The Todd Haynes directed romantic drama Carol has debuted to rapturous reviews and garnered attention especially for its two lead actresses.

Set in the 1950s, Carol stars Cate Blanchett as a married woman in a lesbian relationship with a younger twenty something played by The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’s Rooney Mara. Just two years after she won Best Actress for Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, Blanchett seems very probable to find her name in the mix again with Mara a good possibility for Supporting Actress attention. Director Haynes could find himself the center of attention for his first Director nomination after giving us critical darlings like Far From Heaven and I’m Not There. Based on the festival buzz, Carol has also vaulted itself into the conversation for a Best Picture nod. Reviews have also noted the screenplay (which would be in the Adapted category due to the film being based upon Patricia Highsmith’s novel The Price of Salt), as well as the cinematography and costume design.

It has become common for Cannes to give us at least a couple contenders for Academy attention and Carol certainly fits the bill. The picture opens stateside on December 18, right in the midst of when serious qualifiers come out.