Box Office Predictions: January 29-31

The final weekend of January brings four new offerings to the multiplexes: animated threequel Kung Fu Panda 3, Marlon Wayans spoof Fifty Shades of Black, true life rescue drama The Finest Hours, and Western Jane Got a Gun with Natalie Portman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

As I see it, Panda should have no trouble topping the charts with Fifty Shades coming in as a distant runner-up. The Revenant and Star Wars could find themselves in a competition for the three and four spots with The Finest Hours, which I have underperforming (especially considering its reported $80M budget). As for Jane, opening on just approximately 550 screens, my $1.7 million estimate for it should leave it outside the top ten.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $41.7 million

2. Fifty Shades of Black

Predicted Gross: $16 million

3. The Finest Hours

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

Box Office Results (January 22-24)

In a slow weekend where the winter storms in D.C. and NYC likely had a negative impact, Leonardo DiCaprio moved up to #1 with The Revenant. The potential Oscar favorite took in $16 million (under my $19.6M prediction) for a total of $119M.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens was second with $14 million, a bit under my $15.9M estimate and its record setting total now sits at $879M.

Last week’s champ Ride Along 2 suffered a huge drop in weekend #2 with $12.4 million (below my $16.8M projection). The Kevin Hart/Ice Cube sequel stands at $58 million and is unlikely to reach $100M – pretty disappointing considering the original just two years ago took in $134M.

A trio of newcomers all failed to make a splash and populated the 4-6 spots. All three opened a bit under my projections. The critically savaged Robert De Niro/Zac Efron comedy Dirty Grandpa placed fourth with $11.6 million (I said $14.6M).

Fifth place was British horror pic The Boy with a muted $10.7 million (my projection was $12.1M). Sixth place was YA adventure flick The 5th Wave with just $10.3 million (I said $11.4M). Look for all three to fade quickly.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Manchester by the Sea

It’s only January but the currently happening Sundance Film Festival has given us our first potential Oscar contender for 2016. The film is Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea, a New England set drama starring Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams, Kyle Chandler, and Lucas Hedges. Yesterday’s Sundance screening prompted rave reviews and immediate Oscar chatter. Writer/director Lonergan was nominated in 2000 for an Original Screenplay nod for You Can Count on Me and it could happen here. Affleck, Williams, and Hedges in particular have been singled out for their work. Amazon snapped up rights to Manchester quickly and are planning an awards push.

If it seems too early for these predictions, note that Sundance has provided many eventual Oscar nominees over the years. The last two years have provided three: 2014’s Boyhood and Whiplash and 2015’s Brooklyn. Going back further, the list includes Hannah and Her Sisters, Moonstruck, The Full Monty, Little Miss Sunshine, Precious, An Education, Winter’s Bone, The Kids Are All Right, and Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Obviously there’s a full year for many other contenders to emerge, but there’s little doubt that Manchester by the Sea is the first legitimate one.

Todd’s Ten Songs of the Week: January 24th Edition

We’re back at it again with my second edition of my now weekly post where I simply post ten songs I’m digging nowadays. For the first post last week, I gave you ten David Bowie lesser known cuts that I felt are worth a listen.

This Sunday (and for most of them I imagine), we move onto just a random sampling of stuff I love… and I how you dig to — because we all need great music in our lives, don’t we?

And in honor of some truly sad news this week…

Short Gets A Big Boost

Last night, the Producers Guild of America bestowed their Best Picture honor and it created yet more confusion as to which movie will emerge victorious come Oscar evening. The PGA’s award went to Adam McKay’s The Big Short and it undoubtedly increases its chance at Academy Award glory exponentially.

Want proof? How’s this? Since the group started naming Best Picture in 1989, it has lined up with the Academy’s winner 19 out of 25 times (or 76% for you math fans). The Oscar and PGA recipients have correctly matched during the last eight years. The last time it didn’t was in 2006 when Little Miss Sunshine won over Academy honoree The Departed.

It’s probably fair to say that The Big Short is now the soft front runner in the race. That designation once belonged to Spotlight, which took home several critics awards precursors. The front runner status then shifted to The Revenant, which is killing it at the box office and was the Golden Globe winner for Best Drama. And now it’s The Big Short. Truth be told, this is a genuine three picture race for Oscar gold and up until yesterday, I had The Big Short running third. The PGA has shifted the paradigm.

The Intern Movie Review

Nancy Meyers brings her brand of comedic drama featuring a strong female character to the screen once again in The Intern. This time it’s Anne Hathaway as Jules, the CEO of a flourishing NYC online fashion company who’s struggling to balance her harried work life with her personal one. The latter includes her stay at home husband (Anders Holm) and little girl. Jules finds someone to assist with that balance in the form of Ben (Robert De Niro). He used to work at a phone book company (an obsolete business) and he’s battling general boredom in his retirement. The 70 year old widower decides to apply for a senior internship with Jules’s company and he’s soon assigned to work directly under her.

The Intern explores the issues of Jules deciding whether or not to hand control of the business over to an outside CEO. There’s also some marital issues at hand and her ongoing frustration with her distant mother, which helps explain some of her own personality quirks. We have Ben’s burgeoning romance with the company’s in house masseuse (Rene Russo). As the over two hour tale unfolds, the pathos level continues to increase as Ben and Jules become closer.

It’s all perfectly pleasant, continually earnest, and sad to say – a little dull. Hathaway’s performance gives her an interesting and strong character to play with, even if her work here comes off a bit mannered occasionally. De Niro is in Mr. Nice Guy mode and he’s just fine, even if this part isn’t exactly challenging in any way.

Frankly, there’s not much else to say here. The Intern can be a little bland but it’s engaging enough to not be a total waste of time. Faint praise, I recognize. If you’ve enjoyed Meyers pics such as What Women Want, Something’s Gotta Give and It’s Complicated, you’ll probably think this is decent.

**1/2 (out of four)

Jane Got a Gun Box Office Prediction

It boasts an acclaimed director with an Oscar winning actress, but next weekend’s Jane Got a Gun seems poised to misfire upon its debut. Gavin O’Connor, maker of Miracle and Warrior, directs this western headlined by Natalie Portman with Joel Edgerton and Ewan McGregor costarring.

The long delayed pic was originally set to open in the summer of 2014, then delayed to 2015, and is now finally rolling out in the doldrums of January. Marketing for it has been low-key and I feel part of its struggle could be that audiences just aren’t aware of its existence. Added to that, female driven westerns are historically not a commercially viable genre (see Bad Girls, The Quick and the Dead).

Jane Got a Gun, while having a relatively small $25 million budget, could have trouble grossing half that number overall. I don’t even think this reaches $5 million in its opening.

bloggers note: upon word this is only opening on 550 screens, I’m downgrading this prediction from $3.4M to $1.7M

Jane Got a Gun opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million

For my Kung Fu Panda 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/20/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Fifty Shades of Black prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

For my The Finest Hours prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/the-finest-hours-box-office-prediction/

The Finest Hours Box Office Prediction

Disney hopes to bring audiences in next weekend with the true life disaster pic The Finest Hours, but I have a feeling that choppy waters could be ahead. The 1950s set tale of a Coast Guard rescue mission comes with a reported $80 million budget and stars Chris Pine, Casey Affleck, Ben Foster, and Eric Bana. Craig Gillespie, who last worked with the Mouse Factory on the commercially disappointing Million Dollar Arm, is behind the camera.

The studio probably hopes that Hours can appeal to adult viewers looking for an old fasioned adventure film, but trailers and TV spots haven’t been too impressive. Early reviews have been pretty underwhelming to boot. I believe this may struggle to even reach double digits, but I’ll predict it clocks in just past that for a letdown of a debut.

The Finest Hours opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million

For my Kung Fu Panda 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/20/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Fifty Shades of Black prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

For my Jane Got a Gun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/jane-got-a-gun-box-office-prediction/

Fifty Shades of Black Box Office Prediction

Reteaming with his same cowriter and director from the two A Haunted House pics from 2013 and 2014, Marlon Wayans is back in spoof territory with Fifty Shades of Black, out next weekend. In case you couldn’t tell, the timely sendup satirizes last year’s smash hit Fifty Shades of Grey, which debuted to $85 million over Valentine’s Day 2015. Kali Hawk, Mike Epps, Jane Seymour, and Fred Williard costar.

Three years ago in January, the aforementioned A Haunted House surprised predictors with an $18.1 million debut and a $40 million overall gross. Its 2014 sequel didn’t fare nearly as well with just an $8.8 opening and $17 million eventual take. What could assist Black is the timeliness of the film it’s making fun of.

Still, I’m not convinced that means it tops what Marlon and company did with the first House. I’ll project that Black debuts in the mid teens before what should likely be a quick fadeout.

Fifty Shades of Black opening weekend prediction: $16 million

For my Kung Fu Panda 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/20/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-prediction/

For my The Finest Hours prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/the-finest-hours-box-office-prediction/

For my Jane Got a Gun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/jane-got-a-gun-box-office-prediction/

Kung Fu Panda 3 Box Office Prediction

Jack Black is back kicking it again as Po in Dreamworks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3, out next weekend. The threequel comes nearly five years after the second installment with a slew of famous faces voicing characters in the martial arts comedy toon. They include Angelina Jolie Pitt, Dustin Hoffman, Lucy Liu, Jackie Chan, Seth Rogen, Bryan Cranston, Kate Hudson, J.K. Simmons, and David Cross.

In 2008, the original Panda chopped its way to a fabulous $60 million opening on its way to a $215 million domestic haul. The inevitable 2011 sequel couldn’t quite match that performance with a $47 million premiere and $165 million take. Part 3, unlike its two predecessors, isn’t debuting in the summer so competition is less steep. That said, the five year old layover could lead to slightly dwindling returns once again.

Kung Fu Panda 3 will almost undoubtedly set one record: biggest animated opening of all time in January (it only needs to top the $19.4 million accomplished by The Nut Job two years ago). It should double that at least, but I’ll predict it has the lowest opening of the trio.

Kung Fu Panda 3 opening weekend prediction: $41.7 million

For my Fifty Shades of Black prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

For my The Finest Hours prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/the-finest-hours-box-office-prediction/

For my Jane Got a Gun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/jane-got-a-gun-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: January 22-24

Three new titles open Friday to challenge Ride Along 2, The Revenant, and Star Wars at the box office: Robert De Niro/Zac Efron comedy Dirty Grandpa, British horror pic The Boy, and YA thriller The 5th Wave. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/14/dirty-grandpa-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/15/the-boy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/14/the-5th-wave-box-office-prediction/

Any one of these newbies (especially Grandpa or The Boy in my view) could over perform, but as predicted I have this trio all debuting in the $11-$14 million range. I am also speculating that current champ Ride Along 2 (which didn’t match the gross of its predecessor) is likely to dip over 50%. That should leave The Revenant (fresh off receiving the most Oscar nominations) in a position to get to #1 after two weeks in the runner up position and Star Wars in a position to potentially remain in third.

And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

2. Ride Along 2

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Dirty Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

5. The Boy

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

6. The 5th Wave

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

Box Office Results (January 15-17)

As expected, the return of Kevin Hart and Ice Cube in Ride Along 2 debuted atop the charts, finally knocking off Star Wars. Yet it didn’t earn quite as much as its predecessor did on the same weekend two years ago. The sequel posted $35.2 million, under my $45.5M prediction. Over the four day MLK day, it’s made $41M while the original made over $48M in 2014.

After a dozen Oscar nods, The Revenant held up remarkably well with $31.7 million, skyrocketing past my $21.4M estimate. Leo and the Bear clearly benefited immensely from the Academy buzz and its terrific total stands at $95M.

Star Wars finally fell closer to Earth after four weeks on top with $26.3 million (I said $23.9M) and its record setting total is at $858M.

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi had a so-so start with $16.1 million for fourth place, well under my kind $29.3M projection. Its 4 day MLK haul: $19.2M. Not bad, but for a film that generated heavy publicity, it’s a bit underwhelming.

Daddy’s Home was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It made $9.5 million and sits at $131M.

The animated Arctic tale Norm of the North was sixth, premiering with a weak $6.8 million compared to my $9.3 estimate. Its 4 day MLK take? $9.3 million (of course).

And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…

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