Danielle Deadwyler’s performance as Mamie Till-Mobley, mother of lynched Emmett Till in 1955 has come into focus this weekend. Chinonye Chukwu’s Till premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its October 14th theatrical release. Over the past several months, I’ve had Deadwyler either just making the Best Actress cut in fifth or on the outside looking in at sixth.
Now that reviews are out, it appears she’s fully in. Critics are raving about her work to the extent that Deadwyler is a threat to win. The Rotten Tomatoes score for the picture itself is 100% though many write-ups claim it’s her performance that elevates the material. It’s unlikely any costars get attention. They include Jalyn Hall as her slain son, Frankie Faison, Haley Bennett, and Whoopi Goldberg.
Ms. Deadwyler enters an already crowded Best Actress field where I’ve had Cate Blanchett (Tar) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) slotted in first and second. There’s also Michelle Williams and Universal’s curious decision to campaign for her in lead for The Fabelmans. Let’s not forget Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) and Viola Davis (The Woman King) or Ana de Armas (Blonde) and the as yet unseen Margot Robbie for Babylon (though I’m currently putting her in Supporting Actress).
Even with that considerable competition, Deadwyler seems pretty safe and there’s a narrative in which she moves past the aforementioned to claim gold. A better question is whether Till picks up any other nominations. Picture is not impossible, but I’d say it’s iffy. Adapted Screenplay is more feasible as that race is on the weak side (compared to 2022’s original hopefuls). There’s also an original song titled “Stand Up” that I expect to contend.
Bottom line: like Blanchett and Yeoh particularly, we have another close to sure thing in the lead actress field. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The wealth was spread around on the Academy’s big night for the 2014 contenders as all 8 Best Picture nominees won an Oscar or more. Welcome back to my series where I speculate about what would’ve happened in that race if we were still at a fixed number of 5 BP hopefuls.
As you may know, the Academy expanded beyond a quintet starting in 2009. It’s fluctuated from anywhere between 5-10 (usually landing on 8-9) or a set 10 (the way it was in 2009-2010 and the way it is once again starting in 2021). In 2014, we had an octad.
If it were only 5, we know Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman would be in there. It won Best Picture in addition to 3 other victories for its Director, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography.
What of the others? Let’s speculate!
American Sniper
Clint Eastwood’s massive hit with Bradley Cooper as the late Iraqi War marksman Chris Kyle set a January opening weekend record that still stands today. It also picked up 5 additional nods for Cooper, the Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing (where it won), Sound Mixing, and Film Editing. Of the nominees, it’s by far the biggest earner.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I struggled here… but no. Here’s a key factor to remember – Sniper didn’t set that impressive box office record until a week after nominations came out. Furthermore, it failed to pick up a Best Picture nomination at the Golden Globes. As you’ll realize here, there’s only film that I’m confident wouldn’t have made the five. This isn’t it, but I’m leaving it off.
Boyhood
Richard Linklater’s coming-of-age tale was filmed over 11 years and drew loads of acclaim. The 6 nominations included a win for Patricia Arquette in Supporting Actress.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. For a while, Boyhood was a threat to win and it scored directing, editing and screenplay mentions (which are usually critical precursors).
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The period comedy from Wes Anderson was his breakthrough with the Academy, tying Birdman for the most nods at 9. It also tied the BP recipient for most victories as it took home Production Design, Score, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. This was clearly a moment where awards voters and Mr. Anderson gelled. The key precursor boxes were also checked.
The Imitation Game
The historical drama with Benedict Cumberbatch as Alan Turing was right behind Birdman and Budapest with 8 nominations. The sole win was for Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Once again, the trio of direction, screenplay (and a victory no less), and editing (plus the impressive nom haul) put it there.
Selma
Ana DuVernay’s MLK biopic received only one other nomination for its original song “Glory” (where it took the prize).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and this is, by far, the easiest call of the group. Without inclusion for DuVernay or lead David Oyelowo (or screenplay or any tech category), it’s fairly surprising it made the BP cut at all.
The Theory of Everything
Eddie Redmayne won Best Actor as Stephen Hawking and it picked up four other nominations.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but this was a very close call. I’m generally resistant to saying the Best Actor’s movie doesn’t get in BP (it hasn’t happened since 2009). Yet its misses in directing and editing contributed to this projection.
Whiplash
Damien Chazelle’s heralded directorial debut, like Theory, had a handful nods. They included a Supporting Actor gold statute for J.K. Simmons and an Editing victory.
Does It the Make the Final Five?
Yes. Let me say that Sniper or Theory could’ve gotten in over this. I ultimately sided with Whiplash for the editing win and its across the board critical praise.
Therefore my 2014 quintet is:
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
My thoughts on the 2015 BP derby will be up soon!
If you missed my earlier posts covering 2019-2013, you can access them here:
When the two leads of Dog – one of the human variety and another of the canine persuasion – find their rhythm with each other, so does the film. That takes too long (about half of the running time) as we road trip though cartoonish potential threesomes and Mr. Magoo inspired humor. The screenplay from co-director Reid Carolin can’t seem to get out of its own way for the initial stretch. Fortunately Channing Tatum is the other co-director and his chemistry with the title character hits a stride in the back sections.
Tatum’s character was dropped into the Cool Sounding Movie Name Generator and out spat Jackson Briggs. He’s an ex Army Ranger doing menial jobs stateside and pining for a return of duty. When his former brother in arms dies in a car accident, he gets an assignment but not one sought. Briggs is tasked with transporting the deceased’s military dog Lulu from Washington State to the funeral in Arizona. Both Jackson and Lulu are suffering from PTSD. This is scheduled to be the latter’s final assignment as the aggressive hound will be euthanized following the burial.
While nothing in Dog says anything particularly fresh about its subject matter, the rapport between the stars elevates the material. It’s certainly their show as the supporting actors are bit players. Jane Adams and Kevin Nash show up as farmers of the up in smoke variety in one of the would be farcical excursions. Three Belgian Malinois portray the role of Lulu. Tatum was inspired by a real road trip that he took with his ailing pooch in creating the story. The dramatic stuff works better than the attempts at comedy in the early goings. More of that may have helped and Dog is roughly (or ruffly) equal parts hit and miss.
It was forty years ago that Ben Kingsley won the Academy Award for Best Actor as Gandhi. He’s been nominated three times since then – twice in supporting for 1991’s Bugsy and 2001’s Sexy Beast and in lead with 2003’s House of Sand and Fog.
Daliland closed the Toronto Film Festival and its release date is undetermined. Sir Ben plays famed artist Salvador Dali in his twilight years. This is the latest pic from Mary Harron, who made I Shot Andy Warhol, American Psycho, and The Notorious Bettie Page. Costars include Barbara Sukowa, Christopher Briney, and Rupert Graves.
With only a 40% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Daliland failed to make much of an impression at the Canadian fest. Whether it comes out in 2022 or 2023, I highly doubt awards branches will take notice either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Documentary filmmaker Margaret Brown explores her Alabama roots through the tracking of a slave ship in Descendant, which arrives in theaters in limited fashion and streams on Netflix October 21st. This is the latest venture from Higher Ground Productions, founded by former President and First Lady Barack and Michelle Obama.
The company’s critical and awards history has been impressive. In 2019, American Factory won Best Documentary Feature. A year later, Crip Camp made the final five for consideration. Descendant, following its Sundance unveiling back in January, is garnering acclaim. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.
I’ve had Descendant listed in either 2nd or 3rd place in my projections for the Doc derby. I expect it to get in and it could win. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
David O. Russell’s Amsterdam will need to rely on star power to bring in audiences when it opens October 7th. Considering the middling word-of-mouth and so-so trailers and TV spots, that could be an uphill battle. The comedic mystery is the filmmaker’s first picture since 2015’s Joy. It boasts an impressive cast led by Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, and John David Washington. Other familiar faces include Zoe Saldana, Anya Tayl0r-Joy, Robert De Niro, Chris Rock, Rami Malek, Alessandro Nivola, Mike Myers, Michael Shannon, Taylor Swift, Timothy Olyphant, Andrea Riseborough, and Matthias Schoenaerts.
From 2010-2013, Russell had a trilogy of Oscar and audience friendly titles. The Fighter, in addition to multiple Academy nods, made $93 million domestically. Silver Linings Playbook, in addition to multiple Oscar nods, took in $132 million. American Hustle, in addition to its several award nominations, earned $150 million.
Times have changed. The aforementioned Joy, which drew a more mixed reaction than Russell’s predecessors, grossed $56 million. In the seven years that have followed, the director has been embroiled in some concerning stories about his personal life.
20th Century Studios didn’t bother to screen Amsterdam for the film festival circuit a couple of weeks back. Critical reaction has skewed toward the negative with a 36% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Despite the pedigree, the red lights glowing indicate a high profile flop. This might not manage double digits.
Amsterdam opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
For my Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (10/05): I am revising my Crocodile estimate from $21.6 million down to $17.6 million
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile hopes to be the Citizen Kane of attic dwelling crooning semiaquatic reptile films when it debuts October 7th. Sony Pictures is also banking on it catering to a family audience that’s been underserved at multiplexes lately.
Will Speck and Josh Gordon, who made Blades of Glory and Office Christmas Party, direct with pop star Shawn Mendes providing the voice of the CG title character. Live-action actors appearing include Javier Bardem, Constance Wu, Winslow Fegley, Scoot McNairy, and Brett Gelman.
Based on the nearly 60-year-old children’s book by Bernard Waber, I’m not sure there’s really a clamoring for the cinematic rendering. However, as mentioned, you have to go back to DC League of Super-Pets two months ago since there’s been a high profile new release catering to kiddos.
That might help Lyle crawl to a $20-24 million start and that should be good for 1st place.
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
For the time being at least, I’m settling on Edward Berger’s antiwar epic All Quiet on the Western Front as Netflix’s strongest contender. It moves into my predicted BP hopefuls for the first time and that takes out Triangle of Sadness. Additionally, Berger is in the quintet for Director and it’s Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave) that drops. The Quiet love shows up in International Feature Film where it moves to first place with Leave sliding to runner-up status.
We also have a category placement change to discuss. While nothing has been announced, it makes a lot of sense for Babylon‘s Margot Robbie to move to Supporting Actress after Michelle Williams (rather inexplicably) elevated to Best Actress for The Fabelmans. Robbie moves there (hopefully Paramount lets us know soon) so Danielle Deadwyler is back in Best Actress. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is now on the outside looking in for supporting.
There’s a change in Actor as I’m finally putting Diego Calva (Babylon) in over Bill Nighy (Living). In Original Screenplay, The Fabelmans is now #1 over Everything.
The New York Film Festival starts this weekend. By the time of my next update, we will know what the real prospects are for Till with She Said soon to follow.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tar (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Whale (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Elvis (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Empire of Light (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
She Said
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darren Aronofsky, The Whale
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Babylon – moved to Supporting Actress
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Best Actress
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Vanessa Kirby, The Son
Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Judd Hirsch, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bros (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Broker (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Till (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Living (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Son (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)
9. EO (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alcarras (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Eight Mountains
Plan 75
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Navalny (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Descendant (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All That Breathes (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 6) (E)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Riotsville, U.S.A.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tar
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Woman King (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Corsage (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Don’t Worry Darling
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tar (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. X (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Tar (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Batman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (E)
4. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Vegas” from Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
“Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+1)
8. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Batman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nope (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Nope (PR: 8) (+1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (-3)
10. RRR (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Women Talking
5 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
3 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Tar
2 Nominations
Decision to Leave, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, The Batman, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Marry Me, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strangle World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
From 2010-13, David O. Russell made three pictures (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle) that collectively earned an astonishing 25 Oscar nominations. This included acting wins for Christian Bale, Melissa Leo, and Jennifer Lawrence. The filmmaker himself has yet to receive a gold statue and his previous effort (2015’s Joy) nabbed just 1 Academy nod for its lead Lawrence.
His latest is Amsterdam and the comedic mystery will be lucky to garner any attention during awards season. It was a curious decision when Russell’s first feature in seven years skipped the festival circuit of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Now we may know why.
Early reviews for the October 7th release are not encouraging. There’s only a handful of official reviews which show a 20% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Yet we also have plenty of social media reaction claiming this is a high profile disappointment. The impressive cast is led by Bale, Margot Robbie, and John David Washington with tons of other familiar faces including Robert De Niro, Zoe Saldana, Taylor Swift, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rami Malek, Michael Shannon, and Chris Rock (to name some). I wouldn’t expect any to compete in the acting derbies. Bale and De Niro are getting some decent notices, but it shouldn’t matter (maybe Bale could show up at the Globes for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy if competition is light).
As I see it, Costume Design and/or Production Design are the only possibilities for Amsterdam to be an Academy player. It’s entirely feasible that it won’t show up at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Focused on the brave legal battle against the title nation’s brutal dictatorship, Argentina, 1985 premiered at the Venice Film Festival prior to its limited release Friday. An Amazon Prime streaming release is October 21st. The historical drama comes from director Santiago Mitre with a cast including prolific Argentine star Ricardo Darin, Peter Lanzani, Alejandra Flechner, and Norman Briski.
Reviews from Italy were strong and it stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. The native country has unsurprisingly selected it as their submission for International Feature Film at the Oscars. In 2009, Argentina’s The Secret in Their Eyes won that race. Their last nominee was 2014’s Wild Tales.
The international race already has some potential heavy hitters like Decision to Leave, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Close. Yet 1985‘s initial reaction makes it a possibility to make the eventual quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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