Zach Cregger’s Barbarian is really three movies in its 100 minutes and you won’t see two of them coming. You won’t find this Blu-Ray laying around at an Airbnb for your viewing enjoyment (I realize there’s probably not many Blu-Rays laying around anyway). Your viewing enjoyment may depend on your tolerance for gross out scares and if that’s up your alley, this offers some genuine surprises.
Tess (Georgina Campbell) pulls up to a bad Detroit neighborhood to stay at the aforementioned company’s property. She has a job interview the next morning and is shocked to find someone else trying to catch some shuteye. Keith (Bill Skarsgard) is just as confused until they discover the property has been double booked.
For a little while, we’re led to think this could be a meet cute heading down rom com territory. Not so much. It’s hard to forget that Mr. Skarsgard donned creepy makeup recently as Pennywise in the It parts. The couple is instead heading down to the basement where there’s plenty of dank discoveries to uncover.
This is about where spoilers come into play and I do suggest watching Barbarian cold. We do have Justin Long in the mix as a sitcom actor going through a Me Too moment and other cast members whose house appearances shall remain a secret.
I give credit to Cregger, a sitcom actor himself and comedian, for a screenplay that veers into unexpected places. It also tackles some dark subjects while keeping the primary objective in focus. That’s to provide a frightening stay at this setting that wouldn’t merit many stars. On that note, just how were the reviews from previous guests? This creation does merit a referral for horror fans.
Horror pic Smile and Bros, the first gay rom com from a major studio, look to lead the end of September/early October box office. Both are getting solid notices with respective Rotten Tomatoes scores of 79% and 95%. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Smile has had a shrewd marketing campaign with a creepy teaser trailer that played in front Top Gun: Maverick all summer (so a lot of moviegoers saw it). My mid to high teens projection should put it in first place.
That’s unless Bros with Billy Eichner exceeds forecasts. However, my low teens estimate would give it runner-up status. I would not be surprised if it legs out well in subsequent weekends (I suspect word-of-mouth will be strong). **Speaking of forecasts, as of this writing, it remains to be seen if Hurricane Ian could negatively impact the weekend ahead.
With a B- Cinemascore, current champ Don’t Worry Darling could be headed towards a hefty sophomore drop after its solid premiere (more on that below). A mid to high 50s fall is possible. It should hold the 3 spot though The Woman King could give it a run for its money.
King and the Avatar re-release should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I envision it panning out:
1. Smile
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
2. Bros
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
3. Don’t Worry Darling
Predicted Gross: $8 million
4. The Woman King
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
5. Avatar
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (September 23-25)
Don’t Worry Darling, the much publicized thriller from Olivia Wilde and starring Florence Pugh and Harry Styles, started out strong and diminished throughout the weekend. Taking in $19.3 million, it just outdid my $18.9 million projection. It looked like $20 million plus was likely with a $3 million Thursday night start until it dwindled. With a reported $35 million budget, it’s a pleasing debut regardless.
The Woman King fell to second with $11 million, under my $13.2 million take. The acclaimed historical epic with Viola Davis has made $36 million in its first ten days.
Three months ahead of its long in development sequel, James Cameron’s Avatar was re-released and earned $10.5 million for third (surging beyond my $8.5 million projection). The fourth highest grossing domestic earner of all time is now at $771 million with that extra coin.
Barbarian continued its meager declines with a fourth place showing of $4.8 million. I was right on target with $4.9 million as the critically appreciated horror flick has made $28 million.
See How They Run was fifth in its sophomore outing and I incorrectly had it outside of the quintet. With $1.9 million, the weak two-week tally is $6 million.
Pearl was sixth as it also made $1.9 million. My guess? $1.9 million! Like Run, $6 million is its the total.
The French cinematic community had some choices as to which pic to submit for their International Feature Film contender at the Oscars. There’s critically appreciated efforts such as Mia Hansen-Love’s One Fine Morning and Romain Gavras’s Athena. Yet they (unsurprisingly) went with Alice Diop’s Saint Omer. Making her first non-documentary film, Diop has already garnered buzz for the legal drama.
Omer received the Grand Jury Prize at the Venice Film Festival (basically the fest’s second place award). That positive reaction continued in Toronto and it holds a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100%.
2015’s Mustang and 2019’s Les Miserables are the only two French IFF hopefuls of the past decade. I currently have Omer listed in fourth position behind Decision to Leave, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Close. It’s a long shot to win, but it has a great shot to make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Catherine Called Birdy is actually Lena Dunham’s second 2022 directorial feature that she also wrote. Sharp Stick, which began streaming just last month, managed only a 47% Rotten Tomatoes score. The Girls creator might have better luck with Catherine Called Birdy. The medieval times set comedy played the Toronto Film Festival and begins its limited theatrical run tomorrow. Its Amazon Prime premiere is October 7th.
Based on a 1994 children’s novel by Karen Cushman, Bella Ramsey is the title character and the supporting cast includes Andrew Scott, Billie Piper, Joe Alwyn, Dean-Charles Chapman, Ralph Ineson, and Russell Brand. Reviews are certainly sharper than Stick with an 89% RT meter.
I don’t really see this as an Oscar contender, but I wonder if Amazon might attempt a play for Globes attention in the Musical/Comedy race. I doubt if it comes to fruition though the decent buzz doesn’t make it out of the question.My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After being unveiled at the Toronto Film Festival, Sidney debuts on Apple TV tomorrow. The documentary focuses on the life and legacy of cinematic groundbreaker Sidney Poitier, who passed in January at age 94. Denzel Washington, Barbra Streisand, Spike Lee, Halle Berry, and Robert Redford are among the interviewees for the project. Oprah Winfrey is a coproducer.
While most critics are deeming it worthy of recommendation (82% on Rotten Tomatoes), several reviews claim it’s only mildly successful. That could hinder its chances for a Documentary Feature nod at the Oscars, where Mr. Poitier received two nominations. This, of course, includes a Best Actor victory for 1963’s Lilies of the Field where he became the first African-American to win that competition.
Perhaps voters will simply wish to honor the late actor one more time. However, I’m doubtful this ends up in the final five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ryan White’s documentary Good Night Oppy centers on the Mars rover Opportunity and its decade and a half long journey through the red planet. It played the Telluride and Toronto film festivals and is slated for limited theatrical release on November 4th and Amazon Prime streaming on November 23rd.
Early reviews are mostly solid as it holds a 79% Rotten Tomatoes rating. While that’s certainly decent, there will be plenty of other docs with stronger critical reaction. Yet if it strikes a chord with viewers, perhaps the Academy will put it on their shortlist and maybe even final five. Oppy is also the rare true life tale that could theoretically be a contender for Best Visual Effects. I doubt that will materialize, but it’s at least worth mentioning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s often the company our title character keeps in Confess, Fletch that determines the success rate. Jon Hamm effortlessly wears the role of a former journalist who is forced to solve a murder. The urgency is due to I.M. Fletcher finding a female corpse in the house he’s staying at in the first scene. He calls the police station instead of 911 after the discovery. Why? The emergency part is over, according to him. His ambivalence results in humorous moments throughout. It also leads to him becoming the prime suspect.
Greg Mottola has directed comedies that killed like Superbad and Adventureland. He’s also behind the dud Keeping Up with Joneses, which costarred Hamm. This reboot of a franchise that yielded one of Chevy Chase’s finest pics in 1985 and a disappointing 1989 sequel is somewhere in between. When it’s funny, it’s quite funny. There’s also the matter of the mystery itself and it’s not very compelling.
Before Chevy made the often disguised wisecracker into his own vehicle, the character was based on a series of Greg Mcdonald novels. Confess, Fletch is based on his second book. It involves kidnappings and art thievery that our former “investigative reporter of some repute” (as he refers to himself) gets caught up in due to his romance with wealthy Italian contessa Angela (Lorenza Izzo).
Fletch may be the prime suspect to law enforcement, played memorably by partners Inspector Monroe (Roy Wood Jr.) and Detective Griz (Ayden Mayeri). He nonchalantly scopes out others. This includes Angela’s potentially gold digging stepmom The Countess (Marcia Gay Harden) and perhaps Angela herself. The Countess is an example of a character played quite broadly and while Harden seems to be having a ball, there’s other personalities that the movie could’ve benefited from with more screen time. I’m thinking specifically of Annie Mumolo’s gossipy next door neighbor and Lucy Punch as a jilted ex-wife of another suspect. I would’ve taken more bits with them over The Countess or Kyle MacLachlan’s EDM loving art dealer.
Just like Hamm’s take on the reputed reporter, it’s easy to go along for the ride. It was also easy to wish for more of what worked best. Ultimately I was about as involved in the plot mechanisms as Fletch himself and that’s sporadic.
Billing itself as the first gay rom com from a major studio and featuring an all LGBTQ+ main cast, Universal Pictures releases Bros on September 30th. Nicholas Stoller (director of successful comedies Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Neighbors) is behind the camera with Judd Apatow producing. Billy Eichner of Billy on the Street fame stars alongside Luke Macfarlane. The supporting cast includes Ts Madison, Monica Raymund, Guillermo Diaz, Guy Branum, Amanda Bearse, Jim Rash, Dot-Marie Jones, Bowen Yang, Harvey Fierstein, and Debra Messing.
While this particular humorous tale is making some history, it’s rare nowadays to find any comedy getting a wide release (at least one that’s not animated or filled with action). Bros premiered at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month to glowing reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%.
Prognosticators have the range here at $10-15 million. That sounds reasonable and I suspect it’ll start out at the middle of that spectrum. It’ll likely have to settle for a second place showing behind horror pic Smile. However, I could see this legging out well when word-of-mouth gets out. As an aside, I saw Bros at TIFF and can confirm it should be quite the crowdpleaser.
So I wasn’t planning to do a new predictions post just five days after the last one, but a lot can change in five days! When I made those previous picks, I was sitting in my hotel room in Toronto getting ready to return to United States. On this inaugural trip to the festival, I saw awards hopefuls including The Fabelmans, Women Talking, The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and The Son.
The headline this afternoon is a shocker that’s resulted in universal confusion. Michelle Williams, considered to be a lock for Supporting Actress, will be campaigned for in lead Actress by Universal Pictures. I am doubly surprised because, having seen the film, there would be zero controversy with her in the supporting field. In fact, I would say it is more of a supporting performance than lead. Furthermore, a Williams victory seemed likely in the race she won’t be in. Best Actress is an entirely different ball game with Cate Blanchett (Tar), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Margot Robbie (Babylon), and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light). Nevertheless I’ll slot Williams in third place and she knocks out Danielle Deadwyler for the as yet unseen Till. There’s another dynamic potentially at play. Two years ago, Lakeith Stanfield was being touted in Best Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah. The Academy went ahead and nominated him in Supporting Actor. Don’t discount the idea that this could happen with Williams though I won’t predict that.
This Williams news isn’t the only unexpected developments of the week. RRR, RMN, and Godland were all ignored by their native countries as their submissions to the International Feature Film derby. There’s reporting that India’s RRR, in particular, will get a spirited campaign for Best Picture and tech races. Yet IFF was probably its strongest chance to show up on Oscar night.
In other developments:
An alteration in BP as I’m putting Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave in over Empire of Light. I’ll be honest – this was basically a coin flip between Decision to Leave or All Quiet on the Western Front. This also results in Chan-wook making the director cut over Todd Field for Tar.
Due to the Williams news, Claire Foy is the new #1 in Supporting Actress for Women Talking. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) also joins the quintet.
In Supporting Actor, Brad Pitt (Babylon) is back in the mix due to the removal of Micheal Ward for Empire of Light.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Whale (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tar (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 13) (+2)
12. She Said (PR: 12) (E)
13. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
4. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, The Wonder
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (moved to Best Actress)
Nina Hoss, Tar
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bros (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Son (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Till (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bones and All
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (E)
5. Strange World (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 5) (-1)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Lightyear (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Eight Mountains (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Holy Spider (PR: 5) (-3)
9. EO (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Plan 75 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
RMN
RRR
Best Documentary Feature:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)
5. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Ice (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Riotsville, U.S.A. (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All That Breathes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Whale
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Corsage (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Northman
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tar (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Triangle of Sadness
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. X (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
The Fabelmans
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Tar (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Batman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-3)
7. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 7) (E)
8. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Batman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bardo (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Batman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nope (PR: 10) (+2)
9. RRR (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)
And this equates to these pictures garnering the following numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Empire of Light
3 Nominations
Decision to Leave
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tar, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, The Eight Mountains, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Last Flight Home, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Marry Me, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
92 years ago, Lewis Milestone’s war epic All Quiet on the Western Front became just the third movie to win Best Picture at the Oscars. After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival before its October 28th Netflix stream, the latest version could attract Academy attention as well. The German production comes from director Edward Berger with a cast including Daniel Bruhl, Albrecht Schuch, Sebastian Hulk, and Aaron Hilmer.
Its native country has already named it as their submission for International Feature Film. Critical reaction is positive across the board with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. In particular, the World War I tale is being praised for tech aspects.
Along with South Korea’s Decision to Leave, I believe Quiet is pretty close to a sure thing for the IFF category. Yet it could branch out beyond that. We’ve seen a trend lately of Best Director nominees representing their foreign features. Recent examples include Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car). In the first two cases, their film didn’t even make the Best Picture cut. This could happen with Berger or Decision‘s Park Chan-wook.
The possibilities don’t end there. Adapted Screenplay looks quite open for slot availability. The aforementioned down the line chances to make the final five include Cinematography, Editing, and Sound. It’s just as possible that Quiet only makes noise in IFF, but it could contend in multiple competitions including BP. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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