The last time Dennis Quaid and Jake Gyllenhaal played father and son, it was nearly 20 years ago in Roland Emmerich’s disaster epic The Day After Tomorrow. For the upcoming holiday, they’re family again in the Mouse Factory’s animated Strange World (out Wednesday November 23rd). Voicing a pair of explorers in the sci-fi themed adventure, Don Hall (who made Big Hero 6 and Raya and the Last Dragon) and Qui Nguyen direct. Other voices getting in on the action include Jaboukie Young-White, Gabrielle Union, and Lucy Liu.
Disney is no stranger to releasing high profile product over the long Turkey Day frame. Sometimes that’s Pixar material or traditionally drawn fare such as this. Frozen remains the gold standard. It debuted to $67 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Thanksgiving weekend with $93 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Other Disney releases like Moana and Coco made off with $82 and $72 million over their respective first five. On the other hand, The Good Dinosaur grossed just under $40 million from Friday to Sunday in 2015 with $55 million for the extended period. Perhaps the best comp is last year’s Encanto. It made $27 million for the three-day with $40 million for the five.
The buzz seems strangely quiet considering the studio pedigree. I would argue Encanto had more heat before it opened. Strange could manage only a second place start behind the third outing for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (which does give Disney a one-two punch for the weekend). This might open a little closer to Dreamworks Animation’s Penguins of Madagascar from eight Thanksgivings ago at $25 million (Fri-Sun) and $35 million (Wed-Sun). It might even fall short of that.
Strange World opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Sr. refers to Robert Downey Sr. and it recounts his directing and acting career in addition to his final years (he passed last summer). Best known for the underground 1969 satire Putney Swope, the film streams on Netflix December 2nd. His very famous son also appears in the documentary from Chris Smith, maker of 2019’s buzzy Fyre.
After a premiere at Telluride in September, Sr. also played the New York Film Festival. Early reviews are solid across the board with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Netflix always has docs to campaign for at Oscar time. Their biggest hopeful might be Descendant, but they’ll likely promote this one too (especially with the high profile Hollywood connection and Downey Jr. making the rounds).
I’ve had Sr. in and out of my top ten of possibilities in Doc Feature, but not yet in the high five. We’ll see if it manages to rise in the coming weeks. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (11/17): The Fathom Events theatrical output of The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 wasn’t on my radar last week when I made projections. I believe it should open in third place (with #2 certainly possible). My estimates have been updated below to reflect the change.
Culinary satire The Menu and true life journalistic expose She Said are the newbies premiering Friday. Each will vie for runner-up status as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will undoubtedly remain in first place in its sophomore outing. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the fresh product here:
I’m giving the edge to The Menu for #2. I don’t think anything other than Panther will manage double digits and my higher single digits estimate for Menu outweighs the low to mid ones for She Said.
Their placement at 2 and 5 is reliant on neither drastically underperforming and Black Adam having a low to mid 40s dip for fourth. Ticket to Paradise should be fourth depending on the She Said gross.
Back to Panther. The MCU sequel fell $6 million short of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness for biggest domestic premiere of 2022. Strange fell 67% in its second weekend while the year’s other MCU title Thor: Love and Thunder dropped 68%. With its A Cinemascore grade, Wakanda may not fall quite that precipitously.
Here’s how I see the top 5 playing out:
1 . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $70.3 million
2. The Menu
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
3. The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
4. Black Adam
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
5. Ticket to Paradise
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
6. She Said
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (November 11-13)
I went a little high in projecting that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever would achieve the largest debut of the year. It made $181.3 million compared to my call of $195.2 million. As mentioned, that didn’t reach the $187 million that Multiverse did (though it easily outpaced Thor‘s $144 million). Wakanda also fell under the $202 million that its 2018 predecessor made out of the gate.
Black Adam fell to second after two weeks on top with $8 million (in line with my $8.7 million estimate). This comic book adaptation is up to $150 million after three weeks.
Ticket to Paradise was third at $5.9 million, on target with my $5.8 million prediction. The rom com hit $56 million after its third frame.
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile was fourth with $3.2 million (a bit ahead of my $2.5 million estimate) for $40 million total.
Smile rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I said $2.4 million) as it passed the century mark with $102 million.
David O. Russell’s Amsterdam exasperates more than it fascinates. Opening with the tagline “A lot of this actually happened”, the brief explorations of American history between the World Wars hint at a compelling narrative. Wanting to go down a Wikipedia rabbit hole afterwards doesn’t necessarily make for a gratifying experience.
Dr. Burt Berendsen (Christian Bale) is a member of New York high society through marriage. His snooty in-laws and high maintenance wife (Andrea Riseborough) ship him off to what will become World War I in 1918. Under the command of the kindly Bill Meekins (Ed Begley Jr.), the good doc practices his skills for an all black regiment. They must wear French uniforms since the American forces aren’t integrated. That’s a part that actually happened. Burt makes fast friends with Harold Woodsman (John David Washington). They fight together and are seriously wounded together. Burt is given a glass eye that’s often used for screwball comedy effect. Their injuries introduce them to peculiar nurse Valerie (Margot Robbie), who takes the soldier’s battle scars (such as the metal embedded in their flesh) and turns it into surrealistic art. Burt, Harold, and Valerie form a close bond including the romantic sort for the latter two. The trio live a joyous existence in the title city until Burt returns to the Big Apple. Harold eventually follows suit to become an attorney. The men stay friends and colleagues while Valerie’s whereabouts are unknown.
Fifteen years later, the U.S. is in a depression. Our two New Yorkers have an even more pressing issue. Former war commander Meekins (now a Senator) turns up dead and mysteriously so. His daughter Elizabeth (Taylor Swift, in a performance that will surely generate memes) enlists dad’s former soldiers to investigate. This snooping leads to a vast government conspiracy – some of which falls under the actually happened headline. The case additionally leads them back to Valerie and an all-star cast beyond Bale, Washington, and Robbie.
Chris Rock is a member of the French uniformed clad force. Michael Shannon and Mike Myers are intelligence officers amusingly masquerading as bird experts. Zoe Saldana, in the picture’s most underdeveloped role, helps perform autopsy work and is a potential love interest for Burt. The most intriguing character is General Gill Dillenbeck (Robert De Niro), a combat hero being recruited for fascist propagandist purposes. Russell’s screenplay gives De Niro a noteworthy role to play with (this is the fourth collaboration between them). The legendary actor has done some of his finest 21st century work with the filmmaker.
The political potboiler aspects kick into gear when Dillenbeck pops up for the second half. That’s when Amsterdam improves. The first half feels like Russell’s attempt to do a Wes Anderson or Coen Bros type whimsical comedy and he fails the test. There’s a lot of characters crowding the scene. Rami Malek is an affluent textile magnet with connections to Valerie. Anya Taylor-Joy is his wife, who has a funny fangirl crush on Dillenbeck. Alessandro Nivola and Matthias Schoenaerts are detectives assigned to track the lead trio.
Once Russell gets to what Amsterdam is really about (with some unmistakable current events overtones), I realized lots of these famous faces and subplots could’ve been jettisoned for a more focused approach. Of all the names, Bale (always committed) and De Niro come out best. The director’s eye for the solid material keeps getting dislodged – like Burt’s fake one. This makes it questionable as to whether it’s worth seeing. More of the stuff that actually happened and not the forced whimsy would have been a reasonable start.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever does a commendable job in its treatment of Chadwick Boseman’s 2020 passing. What remains in the sequel feels bloated (161 minutes) and is a significant decline from its 2018 predecessor. The MCU in 2022 has been in a relative rut (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse and Thor: Love and Thunder) and Forever extends that.
I will start by accentuating the aforementioned positive. Director and co-writer Ryan Coogler and his team were obviously faced with a sad and unenviable task of handling the title character’s real life death. King T’Challa’s absence is addressed immediately. The departure is the emotional ripple that causes genuine waves of emotion in the beginning and especially the end.
However, we are left to wonder if the filmmakers would’ve been better off recasting the role. Boseman’s presence and the idea of having a central protagonist is missed in the follow-up. The narrative of Wakanda often feels pulled into too many directions. I found myself wishing to untangle it and cut loose ends.
The plot comes into focus one year after T’Challah’s funeral. Sister Shuri (Letitia Wright) is haunted that her tech skills couldn’t save her sibling. Queen Ramonda (Angela Bassett) rules the country with an iron fist. Other nations, including the United States, are jealous of their vibranium hoarding ways. It turns out the precious metal is also present under the surface in the underwater land of Talokan. Their ruler is Namor (Tenoch Huerta) and his legion of Avatar looking subjects are grappling with how to handle their valuable commodity. Namor decides that Wakanda either needs to join him in declaring war on the rest of the world (who want that sweet vibranium) or become a nemesis of the subsurface society.
Namor, as written, is a fairly decent antagonist. Like Michael B. Jordan’s Killmonger in the original, his motives to be “the bad guy” are rather understandable. The Marvel Cinematic Universe has had plenty of forgettable villains. Namor isn’t one, but Huerta also isn’t much of a threatening presence. This is especially true when comparing Namor to Killmonger as there is no comparison.
My biggest gripe is the one item that also hindered the third act of 2018’s adventure. The action sequences are frequently handled in clumsy fashion. They are too dimly lit or the CG happenings are confusing.
There are some welcome returns with Winston Duke as the warrior M’Baku and Danai Gurira as Okoye, leader of Wakanda’s all female fighting force. Lupita Nyong’o is back as Nakia, T’Challah’s love interest. She is summoned back to her native land by Ramonda and Bassett is given a couple of potent monologues as the mourning Queen.
Then there’s Martin Freeman back on duty as CIA agent Everett Ross. This time around, he’s teamed with his boss and ex-wife Val (Julia Louis-Dreyfus) as they are at odds in their views on how to deal with Wakanda. The screenwriters should have dealt them off the page. They could have been eliminated altogether and the only difference would be a thankfully shorter runtime.
For all the working in water happening during Wakanda Forever, the real waterworks occur as Mr. Boseman is honored and those are powerful moments. Too much of the rest doesn’t work at all.
We have reached 2016 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-15, you can peruse them here:
We know one thing for sure – Moonlight from Barry Jenkins is in. As you may recall, it had to wait a tad longer to win Best Picture when an envelope mishap caused Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway to wrongly proclaim La La Land as the voters choice.
As for the 8 other hopefuls (including La La), here’s my take on which half of them would have made the dance.
Arrival
Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi drama tied Moonlight for the second most nods at 8. In addition to BP, the director and adapted screenplay were nominated along with tech mentions in Sound Editing (where it won), Sound Mixing, Production Design, Cinematography, and Editing. On the flip side, star Amy Adams was omitted in Best Actress. It stands as one of the most surprising acting snubs of the past decade.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I’ll admit I went back and forth here. There’s certainly an argument to be made that it gets in due to the high number of nominations. However, the Actress snub and it not making the Golden Globe five for Drama make me more comfortable leaving it out. **As a side note – I didn’t let my personal take on it interfere as it’s probably my favorite picture of 2016.
Fences
Denzel Washington starred and directed this adaptation of the August Wilson play. Washington landed an Actor nom while costar Viola Davis won Supporting Actress. The Adapted Screenplay was also up.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Had it materialized in Director, I might think twice but this was probably 7th at best of the nine contenders.
Hacksaw Ridge
Mel Gibson made a filmmaking comeback in the World War II drama. He was up for his direction and Andrew Garfield earned a Best Actor spot. It won Sound Mixing and Film Editing and was up for Sound Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Despite its screenplay not being mentioned, the Editing victory puts it in for me. In the 21st century, the winner of the race has missed BP exactly once (2011’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo).
Hell or High Water
Taylor Sheridan is best known these days for co-creating TV’s hit Yellowstone. He earned an Original Screenplay nod for this neo-Western that was also up for Supporting Actor (Jeff Bridges) and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Director David Mackenzie wasn’t up and the 0 for 4 showing is a sign the final five wasn’t reachable.
Hidden Figures
Theodore Melfi’s true life look at African-American female mathematicians at NASA during the 1960s was a gigantic hit – blasting off to $170 million domestically. Besides BP, Octavia Spencer was up for Supporting Actress as was the Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No in spite of its box office. Of the nine nominees, it got the smallest number of noms and took home zero. It was also missed the Golden Globe and Critics Choice lists.
La La Land
Damien Chazelle won Best Director for his musical and Emma Stone was crowned Best Actress. The total number of nominations was 14 – which tied All About Eve and Titanic for the most ever. Other victories were Score, Song, Cinematography, and Production Design. The other mentions were Actor (Ryan Gosling), Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Costume Design, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
A big and obvious yes. When Dunaway accidentally proclaimed it BP, no one was surprised since it was the frontrunner. It was very likely the runner-up in votes.
Lion
Garth Davis’s drama finds Dev Patel searching for his birth parents and it found its way to five other nods for Patel in Supporting Actor, Nicole Kidman for Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Cinematography. It did not win any of them.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I will admit that this could be a stretch and Arrival might be the pick of others. I just think that there would have been enough sentiment for this one to make the final cut even without directing and editing mentions.
Manchster by the Sea
Kenneth Lonergan got a directing nod for this grief filled drama and Casey Affleck won Best Actor. Lucas Hedges and Michelle Williams were up for the supporting derbies while Lonergan won Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The screenplay and Actor wins solidify this and it was probably third of the five behind Moonlight and La La Land.
The true life tale of the New York Times journalists who exposed the crimes of Harvey Weinstein, Maria Schrader’s She Said debuts November 18th. Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan play the investigative reporters with a supporting cast including Patricia Clarkson, Andre Braugher, Jennifer Ehle, Tom Pelphrey, and Samantha Morton.
Critical reaction skewed positive after its premiere at the New York Film Festival. With an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score, She could contend for nods in some Oscar races including Picture. The best reviews have compared it to 2015’s BP winner Spotlight.
The ripped from the fairly recent headlines story could assist in bringing in filmgoers. Universal is certainly banking on a female turnout. My hunch is that this struggles in its opening and hopes for sturdy legs in subsequent frames. Low to mid single digits might be the start.
Searchlight Pictures is hoping moviegoers check out The Menu when it opens November 18th. Mark Mylod, best known for small screens fare like Game of Thrones and Shameless, directs. The black comedy features a large cast of cooks and diners including Ralph Fiennes, Anya Taylor-Joy, Nicholas Hoult, Hong Chau, Janet McTeer, Judith Light, John Leguizamo, Reed Birney, Aimee Carrero, and Arturo Castro.
For the most part, critics like what they were served when this debuted at Toronto. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 88%. That said, The Menu is not generating much awards chatter which could’ve helped in appetizing an older audience.
A debut at or above $10 million would be quite an accomplishment. I don’t think it gets there with $7-9 million being more likely.
Will Ferrell, Ryan Reynolds, and Octavia Spencer headline Spirited, a musical comedy take on A Christmas Carol. Slated for an Apple TV rollout on November 18th, it has a limited theatrical release this Friday. Sean Anders, who collaborated with Ferrell on both Daddy’s Home pics, directs.
The brief cinematic run leaves it Oscar eligible, but don’t expect this spin on the Dickens classic to garner much attention. It is worth discussing whether the Hollywood Foreign Press Association puts it on their radar for the Golden Globes. They have Musical/Comedy designations and seeing it nominated for Picture and Actor (Ferrell or Reynolds) is feasible.
However, the current 59% Rotten Tomatoes meter is not encouraging. There are certainly years where the Musical/Comedy acting lists allow for performances from films with mixed reviews. I wouldn’t totally discount Ferrell. He’s a two-time GG hopeful in Supporting Actor for 2005’s The Producers and lead actor for Musical/Comedy for 2006’s Stranger Than Fiction. I would say the competition would need to be pretty weak for his third nod. My Oscar (and Golden Globe) prediction posts will continue…
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hopes to land the biggest opening of 2022 when it debuts this weekend. Disney would also love to see the MCU sequel to 2018’s cultural phenomenon achieve the awards love that its predecessor got. It’s not out of the question that it could.
The review embargo is up today and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is an impressive 90% (under part 1’s 96%). Critics are praising the film’s treatment of the loss of its star Chadwick Boseman in 2020. There is some griping about it being overlong. Few reviews are saying it surpasses the original in terms of quality.
The first Panther was nominated for 7 Academy Awards including Best Picture. Still the only superhero pic to make the BP cut, it took 3 of 7 (Score, Production Design, Costume Design). The other nods were Original Song (“All the Stars” from Kendrick Lamar) and Sound Editing and Sound Mixing (these categories have since been combined).
All 3 races where it won four years ago could pop up this time around. Production Design and Costume Design seem like givens. Sound appears a fairly safe bet. Same with Original Song as Rihanna’s closing credits ballad “Lift Me Up” is a threat to win. Ironically, Mr. Lamar lost in 2018 to Lady Gaga and “Shallow”. Gaga could strike again with “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick.
Panther did miss Visual Effects four years back and there were grumbles about the quality. The general consensus is that Wakanda‘s effects are a step up. I don’t think it’s guaranteed to make the VE quintet. However, I do think it has the best shot of the MCU’s 2022 slate (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder are the others).
As for performances, I could see Angela Bassett nabbing some ink. Ultimately I don’t see a second nom materializing nearly 30 years after her first one for What’s Love Got to Do with It.
Now the major question – can Wakanda Forever get a BP nomination? Short answer is yes. Longer answer is more complicated. With Maverick, there’s already one sequel that looks pretty safe. We still have Avatar: The Way of Water and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery waiting in the wings. I think it’s logical to say we won’t see four sequels in BP. Three seems like a stretch. While I wouldn’t discount Wakanda in the big race, I believe the more feasible scenario is tech nods and possibly 5 to even 7 of them. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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