February 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Matthew Vaughn’s star-studded spy comedy Argylle will end the Mean Girls three-week reign atop the charts as February kicks off at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Argylle Box Office Prediction

After a dreadful end to January where filmgoers were especially preoccupied with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, Brock Purdy, Lions, and Ravens, a low 20s start for Argylle should inject at least some life into multiplexes.

The runner-up spot could be another newcomer. Christian series The Chosen is debuting the first three episodes of its fourth season beginning on Thursday. I didn’t do an individual write-up for it, but the Friday to Sunday portion should get to mid or even high single digits. That would likely give it the 2 slot.

Holdovers will populate the rest of the top five. I’m assuming The Beekeeper and Wonka will have smaller declines than current champ Mean Girls. If my estimates pan out, that could mean a 1st to 5th place drop for said Girls.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

2. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

4. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (January 26-28)

As mentioned, it was a tepid end to January as studios sat the weekend out. In fact, it was the weakest frame in nearly two years. The top five features did all manage to slightly exceed my projections.

Mean Girls took in $6.9 million for subdued bragging rights over my $6 million call. The three-week tally is $60 million as it hopes to match the $86 million earned by the original 20 years ago (not adjusted for inflation).

The Beekeeper nearly grabbed the top spot at $6.6 million, dipping a mere 22% in its third outing. I went lower at $5.1 million. Its better than anticipated gross is $41 million.

Wonka was third with $5.6 million, in range with my $5.3 million call. The seven-week take for the largest holiday hit is $194 million. It should hit $200 million later this week.

Migration was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $4.5 million) as it crossed the century mark after six weeks with $101 million.

Anyone but You rounded out the top five as it continued its impressive run at $4.6 million (I forecasted $4.2 million). The rom com is up to $71 million since its Christmas bow.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…