As the wealthy First Lady and Pastor of a Southern Baptist megachurch, Regina Hall and Sterling K. Brown headline the satire Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. After originally premiering at Sundance in January, it’s out in approximately 1800 theaters and streaming on Peacock for Labor Day weekend. Adamma Ebo directs and costars include Austin Crute and Nicole Beharie.
The Focus Features title received mostly positive spins on the festival circuit and the Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 88%. Honk will hope for a solid African-American turnout, but this could have challenges finding parishioners. The most obvious is that the early September holiday weekend is one where moviegoers are often distracted with end of summer activities. I also haven’t seen much of a marketing campaign.
With Jordan Peele serving as executive producer, the answer to whether this gets to even $3 million could be nope.
Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million (Friday to Monday prediction)
For my Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff prediction, click here:
For the first time since May of 2021, we may have a box office outing where no picture tops $10 million. We’re in a bit of a late August spiral as the YA centered vampire tale The Invitation and George Miller’s genie saga Three Thousand Years of Longing debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’m not expecting much out of either. This isn’t a time when studios typically bring out heavy hitters (though it is worth noting that Universal impressed on this same weekend last year with Candyman‘s $22 million haul). I wouldn’t anticipate the newcomers coming anywhere close to that.
My Invitation estimate would give it to #1 spot while Longing could place anywhere from 2-7. I’m thinking #7 is more probable than second as the Tilda Swinton/Idris Elba fantasy seems to be suffering from a quiet marketing campaign.
The runner-up position could be determined by the sophomore drop of current champ Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, which easily surpassed expectations (more on that below). It’s worth noting that its immediate predecessor Dragon Ball Super: Broly experienced a second frame plummet of nearly 70%. Broly actually premiered on a Wednesday before MLK weekend in 2018. In six days, it took in $22 million (similar to Hero‘s three-day mark). Broly only managed $3 million in weekend #2. I think Hero should surpass that, but don’t be surprised it drops in the low 70s.
If so, Beast could stay in second place if it only loses half its audience. While its B Cinemascore grade isn’t great, the lack of competition could mean it avoids a precipitous fall. Bullet Train, Top Gun: Maverick, and DC League of Super-Pets should all hold solidly and that could place them above Longing.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top 7 looking:
1. The Invitation
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
2. Beast
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
5. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero
Predicted Gross: $5 million
6. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
7. Three Thousand Years of Longing
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (August 20-22)
As mentioned, it was a bountiful harvest for Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero as the animated Japanese martial arts fantasy crunched an impressive $21 million. That’s well above my $13.2 million projection. These titles are extremely front loaded so expect a sharp downturn, but that’s a terrific gross and we can anticipate plenty more wide openings for these genre titles.
Idris Elba battled a Beast in the form of a lion and the picture opened in line with most estimates. At $11.5 million (I said $11.3 million), it will hope to match its $36 million budget stateside in coming weeks.
Bullet Train was third with $8 million, rising ahead of my $7 million call. The three-week total is $69 million as it hopes to reach nine figures domestically.
Top Gun: Maverick soared to new heights with $5.9 million, a little under my $6.7 million prediction. In its 13th (!) weekend, Maverick surpassed Avengers: Infinity War to become the 6th largest domestic earner of all time. The tally is $683 million as it looks to top Black Panther‘s $700 million next.
Finally, DC League of Super-Pets rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I went with $5 million). The overall gross after 4 weeks is $67 million.
My blog series continues with speculation on what a Best Picture lineup of five would have looked like in the years since the format changed to up to 10 nominees. That began in 2009 and if you missed my previous posts covering 2009-2012, you can peruse them here:
In our year of 2013, the magic number was 9 contenders. We know that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave would have been included since a win in Best Picture was among its nine nominations. It also took Director, Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o), and Adapted Screenplay. So what else would’ve made the cut? Let’s speculate, shall we?
American Hustle
David O. Russell’s disco era crime pic tied for the most nods with 10, including Director and four acting mentions for Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, and Jennifer Lawrence. Despite the double digit nomination haul, it ended the night with zero victories.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Even with the goose egg, the sheer number of nods indicates making the quintet.
Captain Phillips
With Tom Hanks as the title character in the true life Somali pirate drama, Paul Greengrass’s tense thriller scored 6 overall nods. In addition to Pic, Supporting Actor (Barkhad Abdi), Adapted Screenplay, both Sound races, and Film Editing were in the mix. Like Hustle, there were no wins.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. With no nods for directing or Hanks’s performance (which was a huge snub), I think this would’ve been on the outside looking in.
Dallas Buyers Club
While our first two selections went 0 for 16, this mid 80s set AIDS drama won half of its six nominations – Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Supporting Actor (Jared Leto), and Makeup and Hairstyling. The other two mentions were Original Screenplay and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, but it’s a close call. The three gold statues put it over the edge in my opinion despite not landing a directing slot for the late Jean-Marc Vallee.
Gravity
Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller tied Hustle with 10 nominations. Unlike Hustle, it won 70% of its possibilities: Director, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Visual Effects. Sandra Bullock was nominated for Best Actress and it got a Production Design nod.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Even without a screenplay nom, this would’ve been in contention and it was probably the runner-up to Slave considering the Cuaron win.
Her
Spike Jonze’s quirky romantic drama won Original Screenplay and was up for Score, Song, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No because it missed out on key precursors including Director, Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), and Film Editing.
Nebraska
Alexander Payne’s B&W road dramedy nabbed five other nods for direction, Actor (Bruce Dern), Supporting Actress (June Squibb), Original Screenplay, and Cinematography. It didn’t emerge victorious for any.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I struggled with this one (it’s sixth). Film Editing is often the biggest indicator of a BP nom and that’s part of the reason I gave Dallas Buyers Club a slight edge.
Philomena
Judi Dench received a Best Actress nod for this adoption drama. Adapted Screenplay and Score were the other mentions as its four overall are the least of the BP hopefuls.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. The Academy loves Dench. However, that wouldn’t have been enough for this to survive a cut to five.
The Wolf of Wall Street
Martin Scorsese’s raunchy tale of 80s excess landed Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill acting spots. The direction and Adapted Screenplay were up as well. It won none.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I will say I don’t think it’s automatic. Wolf‘s complete lack of nominations in the tech categories is a bit of a surprise, but ultimately I don’t think the voters would’ve ignored this.
With the Venice Film Festival less than two weeks away and Toronto and Telluride on its heels, the Oscar races are poised to become clearer quite soon. We are mostly in speculation mode at this juncture, but there’s change afoot in the Actor and Supporting Actor with this latest update.
I have vaulted Bill Nighy (Living) into the top 5 for Best Actor and that removes Adam Driver in White Noise. I’ve struggled with Brad Pitt’s placement in Supporting Actor for Babylon. At this point, it’s not certain whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting. Therefore I have Pitt on the outside looking in for Supporting Actor and that allows The Son‘s Zen McGrath to enter the projected quintet.
While no changes were made in the Picture, Director, the Actress derbies, or screenplay – there’s a new #1 for Best Actress. Since I started my estimates back in April, I’ve had Margot Robbie (Babylon) perched atop the charts. I’m now switching that to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Finally, I’ve dropped David O. Russell’s Amsterdam from contention in all races. The studio’s decision to move it up a month from November to October is something I look at as a bad sign. That’s in addition to it getting no festival screenings, a trailer that didn’t impress, and lingering personal issues and bad press for Mr. Russell.
A final note: at this pre-festival juncture in mid-August of 2021, my predictions yielded seven of the eventual 10 BP contenders.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll likely have one more update prior to August 30th before the festival season is upon us!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 12) (+1)
12. White Noise (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (E)
18. Till (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bones and All (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Broker (PR: 20) (E)
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Menu (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Woman King (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (E)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Maris Schrader, She Said (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (E)
11. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: 12) (E)
13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harry Styles, My Policeman (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Don Cheadle, White Noise
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tar (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (E)
13. Bros (PR: 13) (E)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Noise (PR: 4) (E)
5. She Said (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bones and All (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Living (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Till (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-2)
The easiest way to review Beast is as follows: if you want to watch Idris Elba attempt to cold-cock a lion, you’re in luck! Of course I want to see that and it happens in this survival thriller. The remaining hour and a half surrounding it is a disappointingly low energy affair with a screenplay that borders on laughable at times. The CG isn’t laughable, but I never forgot Elba and his daughters were battling a giant cat of pixelated proportions.
Elba is Dr. Samuels, who travels from America to South Africa for a needed excursion with daughters Meredith (Iyana Halley) and Norah (Leah Sava Jeffries). The family is mourning the recent loss of the matriarch who the doctor was separated from. They aren’t the only mammals grieving. Poachers have taken out a pride of lions, but one survived. That wounded creature (emotionally and physically I suppose) is hungry for revenge.
When the Samuels clan joins an old friend and wildlife biologist (Sharlto Copley) on a nature reserve trip, that vengeful roarer disrupts it. In Cujo style, the title character torments the family in and around their immobile vehicle. The movie itself struggles to get its motor running.
Baltasar Kormakur directs and he’s well-versed in nature tales like Everest and Adrift. His work is sometimes overly flashy or bordering on boring with a jump scare every few minutes to break the monotony. There’s hardly an in-between.
Beast could have coasted on its B flick concept. Ryan Engle’s clunky screenplay gets in the way from its lame family therapy sessions to lines designed for trailers only (“We’re in his territory now!”). The script attempts to push an anti-poaching theme… as evidenced by the youngest daughter at one point exclaiming “God, I hate these poachers!” That kind of subtlety is what you get here. If you want to watch Idris Elba punch a lion, expect to fight through the mediocrity of it all.
Touching down 35 years after the glistening biceps and grisly kills of Predator, Prey puts the “pre” in prequel by taking us all the way back to 1719. Our setting is the Northern Great Plains in a mountainous region inhabited by a Comanche Indian tribe. The elements of the time are their own enemy and so is the wildlife roaming free. This includes lions and bears of the somewhat unconvincing CG variety. There’s also a gruesome scene where buffaloes earn their wings.
Dan Trachtenberg’s film poses the question – what if we dropped one of those Predators in this unique cinematic universe? The answer is a clever spin on the franchise that marks its own territory. It limits the callbacks to the original so that when they surface, they’re appreciated. The screenplay isn’t muddied by burying itself in nostalgia and that’s something plenty of other series can’t claim as of late.
There are no semiautomatic weapons or choppas for Naru (Amber Midthunder), a young warrior who longs to be a hunter. Her brother Taabe (Dakota Beavers) is considered one of the best. It’s clear that her community simply doesn’t view her as capable of doing the same. She gets the chance when that extraterrestrial entity (still a triumph of creature design) makes a visit. Her trusty hound Sarii joins her. Camouflaging itself to attack at the right moments and still giving its potential victims a fighting chance, this is indeed Predator’s best vehicle since part 1.
Predator 2 certainly had its guilty pleasures back in 1990 while 2010’s Predators was a mixed bag. By 2018, Shane Black’s The Predator fell apart as it went along and marked a low point. Prey‘s concept of taking the iconic monster back 300 years is simple and effective. Midthunder’s determined heroine is a huge plus and she’s easily the most engaging protagonist since Arnold. Predator isn’t the only predator around as French colonists surface to torment the Comanches. This group’s encounters with Naru and the beast are violent highlights.
Besides some occasionally questionable CG, it’s fair to say that Prey works on every level imaginable. I found myself immersed in the striking landscapes that its unwelcome guest crashes. Trachtenberg stages his action sequences with precision and there’s no time wasted in its 100 minutes. This is how you do a prequel. With this crew involved, I’d eagerly sign up for more predatory journeys through history.
1994’s 1-2-3 comedic punch of Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, and Dumb and Dumber vaulted Jim Carrey from In Living Color small screen MVP to one of the biggest movie stars on the planet. $20 million paydays followed and, four years later, the Canadian phenom entered the awards conversation.
For Peter Weir’s prescient satire The Truman Show, Carrey’s performance mixed the funny with the dramatic for the first time in a major role. Solid box office numbers and impressive reviews followed. Ed Harris was nominated for a Supporting Actor Oscar in addition to Weir’s direction and the original screenplay.
Yet a nod for its headliner was inexplicably left on the cutting room floor. This was even after he won Best Actor (Drama) at the Golden Globes. To be fair, other nominations in the main acting derby featured heavy hitters: Tom Hanks (Saving Private Ryan), Ian McKellen (Gods and Monsters), Nick Nolte (Affliction), and Edward Norton (American History X).
If I had a magic wand, I probably would put Carrey in over the somewhat surprise winner – Roberto Benigni for Life is Beautiful. Nearly a quarter century ago, Carrey’s omission stands as another example of actors known more for laughs coming up short. He still has not managed to get on the Oscar radar and lately his cinematic output has been Sonic the Hedgehog related. The Truman Show, in all reality, should’ve been his contender.
MGM may need more than three wishes for Three Thousand Years of Longing to become a box office success when it opens August 26th. Based on a 1994 short story “The Djinn in the Nightingale’s Eye” by A.S. Byatt, the reported $60 million production is the latest fantasy from acclaimed filmmaker George Miller. Idris Elba stars as a genie hoping to gain his freedom through an academic played by Tilda Swinton.
Miller hasn’t been behind the camera since 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road, which landed 10 Oscar nominations and six wins (all tech categories). He’ll be back helming the franchise again with 2024’s Furiosa. This in-between effort premiered at Cannes back in May to mixed reaction. While its visuals were praised, several critics weren’t overly keen on the story. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 62%.
Elba is a busy man in the last half of August with Beast debuting the week prior. That survival tale might make more in its second frame than Longing accomplishes in its first.
When the theater count is released, my estimate could fluctuate. Initial projections have this potentially reaching $10 million. I’m not buying it. The awareness factor for it seems low and it generated little buzz with the French festival premiere. This has the feel of a significant flop and the late August placement hardly dispels that possibility. I’m projecting that it might not reach $5 million as Miller’s most ardent supporters could be the only moviegoers turning up.
Three Thousand Years of Longing opening weekend prediction: $4 million
Sony is hoping that horror fans and perhaps a young female audience RSVP for The Invitation when it arrives in theaters August 26th. Taking influence from Bram Stoker’s Dracula novel, Jessica M. Thompson directs. Nathalie Emmanuel, best known for her appearances in the latest Fast and Furious installments, headlines. Costars include Thomas Doherty, Stephanie Corneliussen, Alana Boden, and Hugh Skinner.
Horror flicks have been a bright spot in the COVID era and that includes 2022 (Scream and The Black Phone for example). This one faces challenges. It’s not based on existing IP other than the loose vampire connection. Most importantly, the late August release date is generally seen as a dumping ground for studios.
The Invitation may be fortunate to reach double digits (though that could be good enough for a #1 opening). I’ll say it falls a bit under that mark.
The Invitation opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million
For my Three Thousand Years of Longing prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (08/17): Two days before its premiere, I’m revising Beast down from $14.3M to $11.3M. That puts it in second place instead of first with Dragon Ball rising to first.
Survival thriller Beast with Idris Elba and the animated Japanese fantasy sequel Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero will compete for the #1 spot this weekend. It could be a close competition and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I’m projecting that both will manage a low teens opening and I’m giving Beast an ever so slight edge. Either could over perform, but both could also top out in low double digits. As long as neither falls significantly short of expectations, they should place 1-2.
Bullet Train, after two weeks in first, should fall to 3rd or 4th depending on how well Top Gun: Maverick holds. It’s a safe bet that the latter will hold quite solidly so it could be a stiff competition for third with DC League of Super-Pets rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
2. Beast
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $7 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (August 12-14)
Brad Pitt and the Bullet Train was #1 again with $13.4 million, just shy of my $14.1 million take. The two-week total is $55 million as it is tracking to come in under $100 million domestically when all is said and done.
In a photo finish for second, Top Gun: Maverick achieved another remarkable feat. Rising from sixth to the runner-up position, Tom Cruise’s biggest hit ever (and then some) earned $7 million in its 12th outing. I projected a tad lower at $6.2 million. Sitting at $673 million and #7 all-time stateside, it will eventually get to the #5 slot and overtake Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War in the coming days.
DC League of Super-Pets was third and it also made $7 million, in line with my $7.2 million prediction. The animated tale has made $58 million in its three weeks of release.
It was a razor thin margin for 4th and 5th with Thor: Love and Thunder barely surpassing Nope. The former made $5.3 million (I was right there at $5.4 million) as the MCU sequel has rung up $325 million.
Nope was fifth and also did $5.3 million, outpacing my $4.2 million guesstimate. Jordan Peele’s effort has made $107 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru was sixth with $5 million. I went with $5.2 million and it’s amassed $343 million.
#7 was Where the Crawdads Sing with $4 million (I said $4.1 million) with a $72 million overall haul.
Bodies Bodies Bodies couldn’t really capitalize on its impressive NY/LA limited rollout last weekend. Expanding wide, it took in $3.2 million for eighth place. I was a bit more optimistic at $4.4 million. While its per screen average was 2nd in the top 10 behind only Train, look for it to fade quickly.
Elvis was ninth with $2.5 million (I said $2.6 million) as the biopic has shook up $141 million.
The climbing thriller Fall debuted in 10th with $2.5 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did come in with better earnings than most prognoses. This includes my own at $1.2 million.
Easter Sunday fell outside of the top ten in 11th with $2.4 million in its sophomore frame (I was on target at $2.5 million). The meager total is $9 million.
Last and least, Diane Keaton’s comedy Mack & Rita was a massive flop in 13th position with $1 million. I gave it too much leeway at $2.3 million. As if that start wasn’t bad enough, it earned a dreadful D+ Cinemascore grade.
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