Summer 2016 kicks off in grand Disney/Marvel fashion when Captain America: Civil War debuts next Friday. It is the first weekend of May’s only wide release, as no other studio would dare try counter programming against this surefire juggernaut. This is the third entry in the Captain America franchise, but it is essentially a third Avengers feature as Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man, Paul Rudd’s Ant-Man, Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye, Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Don Cheadle’s War Machine, Anthony Mackie’s Falcon, Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlet Witch, and the debuts of Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther and Tom Holland’s Spider-Man all join Chris Evans’ Cap for this extravaganza. Sebastian Shaw, William Hurt, and Daniel Bruhl also appear. Essentially, only Thor and Hulk are missing here.
The Marvel Cinematic Universe has been a multi-billion dollar bonanza for Disney and Marvel Studios. This 13th picture in the MCU has been greeted with terrific buzz and trailers and its critical response stands at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics have gone as far to call it the best MCU movie thus far and this has led to expectations for its opening being understandably sky-high.
How high are we talking? Civil War seems primed to have at least the fifth largest domestic debut of all time. To do so, it would need to top Iron Man 3 and its $174 million opening and $175M seems to be on the lower end of expectations. The current #4 record belongs to summer 2015’s first flick, Avengers: Age of Ultron, which made $191 million. #3 is the original Avengers at $207 million with last summer’s Jurassic World second at $208 million.
The only record I don’t see this competing for is the big daddy – Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which earned $247 million in December. I believe Civil War, with buzz hotter than Ultron, will manage have a larger start and I really wouldn’t be surprised if it does indeed top $200 million. I’m going to peg it at just below what 2012’s Avengers accomplished to make it the second largest MCU debut and fourth highest all-time opening.
Captain America: Civil War opening weekend prediction: $205.6 million
Three new entries populate the box office this weekend as the Key and Peele comedy Keanu, Jennifer Aniston/Julia Roberts dramedy Mother’s Day, and video game based animated pic Ratchet & Clank open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
None of them are likely to knock Disney’s The Jungle Book off its perch at #1, which will be the third weekend on top for Mowgli and friends.
Keanu and Mother’s Day should nab the #2 and #3 positions. I have The Huntsman Winter’s War dropping to fourth and it should have a pretty hefty decline after its disappointing opening (more on that below).
I’m not expecting much out of Ratchet & Clank and have it fighting for fifth with the third weekend of Barbershop: The Next Cut and slightly losing that battle.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
The Jungle Book
Predicted Gross: $37.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)
2. Keanu
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
3. Mother’s Day
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
4. The Huntsman Winter’s War
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)
5. Barbershop: The Next Cut
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)
6. Ratchet & Clank
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (April 22-24)
Disney’s The Jungle Book kept swinging along in its sophomore frame with $61.5 million, just above my $59M projection for a two-week tally of $192M. As mentioned, it should easily retain its #1 status next weekend before another Mouse Factory entry – Captain America: Civil War – does its thing in a few days.
The weekend’s major newcomer was also quite a high-profile flop. The Huntsman Winter’s War, the sort of prequel/sequel to 2012’s hit Snow White and the Huntsman, earned just $19.4 million (lower than my $26.3M estimate). With a reported $115 million budget, War couldn’t overcome toxic reviews and the absence of Kristen Stewart (aka Snow White). The pic may struggle to even reach the $56 million that Snow White made in its opening weekend. Ouch.
Barbershop: The Next Cut was third in its second weekend with $10.5 million, in line with my $11.2M prediction for a total of $35M.
Zootopia was fourth with $6.5 million, higher than my estimate of $5M for a $316M total.
Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss rounded out the top five with $6.2 million, ahead of my $4.9M projection for a three-week take of $49M (pretty low for one of her comedies).
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Ever since the dawn of this blog three and a half years ago, I’ve long considered doing a top 100 Prince songs. For those who don’t know me, let me profess that Prince has been my singular favorite musical artist since I’ve been a young kid. I was fortunate enough to see him in concert 14 times. I know the ins and outs of his 39 albums and many B sides very well.
I mainly never did it for one reason: it’s really difficult to find videos of his work online as Prince was fiercely protective of his catalogue. That means good luck finding his stuff on YouTube or iTunes, etc… Tidal, by the way, has many on his albums on display.
Now – with the shocking and frankly devastating news from Thursday, I’m compiling my personal top 100 songs from his storied career that spanned nearly 40 years. These will be in ten installments and we begin with 100-91:
If you wish to educate yourself on some of the finest work from this genius, I encourage you to seek these out and I’ll have numbers 90-81 up tomorrow!
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 