Shane Black was known as a high-priced screenwriter in the 1980s and 90s with features like Lethal Weapon, The Last Boy Scout, Last Action Hero, and The Long Kiss Goodnight to his credit. In 2005, he made his directorial debut with the critical hit Kiss Kiss Bang Bang and then made a mega-hit in 2010 with Iron Man 3. His third feature is The Nice Guys, out next weekend.
Set in 1970s L.A., this buddy cop action/comedy stars Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling and its release date could be a hindrance for box office success. Many comedy fans may turn their attention to its competition, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising. Strong reviews could help and that could get this to low teens.
Even though trailers and TV spots have been pretty darn funny in my view, among newbies Neighbors and Angry Birds – it’s highly likely that Nice Guys will finish last. It stands a better shot at becoming a cult hit than an actual one.
The Nice Guys opening weekend prediction: $14.4 million
For my Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising prediction, click here:
The Angry Birds Movie, out next weekend, marks a first as the animated tale is our inaugural film to be based on an app. Millions worldwide have spent countless hours flinging those ill-tempered fowls into various structures and we’ll soon find out whether they wish to spend a couple of hours watching them on the silver screen.
Based on the Rovio Entertainment game, Birds features the voices of many familiar names including Jason Sudeikis, Josh Gad, Danny McBride, Maya Rudolph, Sean Penn, Bill Hader, and Peter Dinklage. Reviews have been mixed with a 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
Frankly, Angry Birds is a big question mark. A high-profile family friendly animated flick should perform quite well in the month of May. However, without the Disney brand or well-established franchise tag (Ice Age, Rio, Madagascar, etc…), it’s unclear whether kids and their parents will flock (get it?) to this.
The range of possibility for this opening is wide, but I’ll go with a mid 30s debut.
The Angry Birds Movie opening weekend prediction: $34.5 million
For my Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising prediction, click here:
Seth Rogen, Zac Efron, and Rose Byrne are back experiencing homeowner drama in a hopefully funny way with Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, out next weekend. This time, it’s the ladies turn to wreak havoc on Mr. Rogen’s famiy with Chloe Grace Moretz leading the way. Nicholas Stoller returns to direct with Dave Franco and Ike Barinholtz back in supporting roles.
Two years ago, Neighbors turned into a major summer hit with a $49 million opening and $150 million domestic gross. A sequel was quickly greenlit and here we are today with the follow-up hoping to match its predecessor’s numbers.
It could be tough to do. There is some genre competition with Russell Crowe/Ryan Gosling’s The Nice Guys opening on the same day. Additionally, many comedic sequels open under the original in general. The fact that only two years has passed could help though. Reviews have been decent as it stands at 66% on Rotten Tomatoes, just under the 73% of the first.
I’ll predict Neighbors 2 rises to just under $40M, about $10M less than what came before it and it’ll probably manage to just reach triple digits when all is said and done.
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising opening weekend prediction: $38.2 million
For my The Angry Birds Movie prediction, click here:
The second weekend of summer should bring further domination from Captain America and his Marvel friends and foes as Civil War will easily reign supreme in weekend #2. There are two new entries: Jodie Foster’s thriller Money Monster starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts and the Blumhouse horror flick The Darkness. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts of each of them right here:
As I see it, Money Monster will likely settle for a third place showing with Mother’s Day and The Darkness fighting it out for the four spot.
Civil War had an impressive opening that still came in below many prognosticators (including this one) were saying… more on that below. These Disney/Marvel ventures typically drop in the mid-high 50s and I expect the same here (the first Avengers pic, it’s worth noting, dropped just 50%).
As for The Jungle Book, I expect a fairly small decline for it (as is typical with many pictures in the second weekend of May) and it should have no problem staying in the runner-up position.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
Captain America: Civil War
Predicted Gross: $76.8 million (representing a drop of 57%)
2. The Jungle Book
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million (representing a drop of 24%)
3. Money Monster
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. The Darkness
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Mother’s Day
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (May 6-8)
Summer 2016 started off as so many others have in recent years with Marvel ruling the charts as Captain America: Civil War took in $179.1 million. That’s good for the fifth largest domestic opening of all time, nestled between other MCU entries Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3. The debut is just fine, but also on the lower end of its expectations (I put it at $205.6M).
The Jungle Book fell to second after three weeks on top with $24.4 million, in line with my $23.5M projection for a total of $287M.
Perhaps the story of the weekend was Mother’s Day, which jumped 32% in its second weekend to $11 million (more than doubling my meager $5.1M prediction). Lesson to be learned: a movie called Mother’s Day (no matter how bad its reviews may be) is going to do well on Mother’s Day. Its two-week total is $22M and I would expect a pretty big dip next weekend.
The Huntsman Winter’s War was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $4.5M) for a weak $40M haul while Keanu rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I went higher with $4.9M). Keanu‘s total is just $15M. Zootopia was sixth – also with $3.2 million and under my $4.8M prognosis for a $328M tally.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Blumhouse Productions specializes in low-budget horror flicks and they’ve got once teed up for early summer with The Darkness, out next weekend. Kevin Bacon and Radha Mitchell star in a tale of a Grand Canyon vacation bringing back a supernatural being. David Mazouz, Matt Walsh, and Jennifer Morrison costar. Greg McLean, who directed Wolf Creek, is behind the camera.
The studio has seen their share of genre successes, including the Paranormal Activity, Sinister, Insidious, and Purge franchises. There’s also been some relative disappointments, such as Dark Skies, Oculus, The Gallows, and The Green Inferno.
The Darkness doesn’t seem to have much buzz going for it and appears unlikely to light up the box office. I’ll predict this doesn’t reach double digits.
The Darkness opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
George Clooney and Julia Roberts headline Money Monster, out next weekend, as this Jodie Foster directed thriller attempts to lure in adults for some early summer counter programming. I’m not confident it’ll work out too well.
The TriStar release, budgeted at a reasonable $30 million, stars Clooney as a financial TV guru held hostage live on air with Roberts as his exec producer. Jack O’Connell and Dominic West costar.
This pic is a rather odd choice for the second weekend in May and might’ve been better suited for a spring or early fall release. If it doesn’t perform well, it won’t be for lack of marketing as the TV spots have been featured heavily on the money monsters we call cable news networks. It could struggle to reach the opening weekends of the two leads lesser performers such as Clooney’s The American ($13.1 million) or Julia’s Duplicity ($13.9 million). And even though Foster has received two Oscars for her acting, her directorial efforts Little Man Tate, Home for the Holidays, and The Beaver have yet to yield a dam hit (get it?).
I’ll predict Money Monster doesn’t reach the teens out of the gate.
Money Monster opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million
Disney and Marvel once again stake claim to the first weekend of May’s box office spot as they have for six of the last eight years when Captain America: Civil War invades theaters this weekend. It is the first summer movie of the year and it stands an excellent chance at being the biggest of them all. You can read my detailed prediction post on it right here:
My $205.6 million opening weekend prediction puts it at #4 all-time, just below 2012’s The Avengers at $207M and above last year’s Avengers: Age of Ultron, which bowed to $191M. The company it finds itself in between is appropriate as Civil War is essentially a third Avengers pic, with Iron Man, Black Widow, Ant-Man, Spider-Man, and more joining Chris Evans’ title character.
As for holdovers, Disney should have no trouble at the #2 position as The Jungle Book will slip there after three weeks on top. Keanu, The Huntsman Winter’s War, Zootopia and Mother’s Day should make up the rest in a tightly bunched formation that I have with all around $5M.
And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:
Captain America: Civil War
Predicted Gross: $205.6 million
2. The Jungle Book
Predicted Gross: $23.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)
3. Mother’sDay
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Keanu
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 48%)
5. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 14%)
6. The Huntsman Winter’s War
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (April 29-May 1)’
As expected, Disney’s The Jungle Book slayed its competitors for a third weekend on top with $43.7 million (higher than my $37.9M estimate) for a grand total of $253M. The Mouse Factory’s mega-hit will finally be replaced by another Mouse Factory mega-hit this weekend.
And now for the non mega-hits. The Huntsman Winter’s Way remained in second with $9.6 million for a tepid total of $34M. It did manage to top my $8.1M projection.
Newbies did not fare well. Despite mostly positive reviews, Key and Peele’s comedy Keanu managed just $9.4 million in third, well below my generous $17.6M prediction.
The news was even worse for Mother’s Day (which got scathing reviews) which debuted in fourth with only $8.3 million (I said $14.7M).
Barbershop: The Next Cut rounded out with top five with $6 million – in line with my $6.2M estimate for a three-week take of $44M.
The video game inspired Ratchet & Clank disappointed in seventh with only $4.8 million, just under my $5.2M prediction. That meant Disney’s Zootopia (in weekend #8) was sixth with $5.3 million ($323M total) and I incorrectly had it outside the top six.
And that’ll for now, ladies and gentlemen! Until next time…
It has been a tremendous joy to compile my Top 100 personal favorite songs by Prince. The best way to remember and honor this incredible genius is to press play… And there’s so much to appreciate, dance to, and inspire you. Here’s my top ten:
10. “Little Red Corvette”‘from 1999 (1982)
9. “Sign O The Times” from Sign O The Times (1987)
“Joy and pain. Like sunshine and rain.” – Rob Base & D.J. E-Z Rock
David O. Russell’s latest tells a fable grounded in reality of Joy Mangano, who invented a new way to clean floors in the early 90s with the Miracle Mop. It continues his habit during this decade of taking ordinary people and telling their extraordinary situations.
Our title character is portrayed by Russell’s muse Jennifer Lawrence. As a little girl, we see that she loves making inventions with her hands. This leads to the aforementioned mop, though selling it is no easy feat. Her quirky family includes her father Rudy (Robert De Niro, thankfully doing his best work nowadays with this director), who is restless in his love life and in a burgeoning relationship with a wealthy widow (Isabella Rossellini). That widow provides a pipeline to funding the Miracle operation, though not without serious reservations and Joy mortgaging her home twice. Joy’s mother (Virginia Madsen) is essentially an anti-social shut in who exists vicariously through the soap opera characters she watches all day. This allows for some interesting cameos. There’s Joy’s aspiring singer ex-husband (Edgar Ramirez), who still lives with her and serves as a trusted advisor. And Diane Ladd is her constantly supportive grandmother, who narrates these proceedings.
Joy is about the many pains that she must face to convince her family and the consuming public that she’s onto something. The journey eventually leads her to the upstart QVC, headed by a sturdy executive (Bradley Cooper) who conducts the network’s infomercials like an orchestra (her first segment is directed with the energy and enthusiasm we expect from this filmmaker). This allows for the fascinating of seeing Melissa Rivers play her late mother Joan. She soon learns the gloomy side of business, even when success comes. The picture is divided into two halves. The first is mostly about the pain of getting her venture started. The second has more joy and a little more sunshine, but pain is always around the corner. Rob Base and DJ E-Z Rock couldn’t have known these lyrics would apply here, but they do.
More than anything, Joy gives Lawrence another platform to shine and she takes advantage. The film never does reach the emotional, comedic, or dramatic heights of previous efforts like The Fighter and, in particular, Silver Linings Playbook. By the movie’s end, we are dealing with a central character who’s gone from sketching her designs in crayon to a multi-million dollar empire. Yet her saga never feels as fraught with nervous excitement as that regional Pennsylvania dance contest in Playbook. Still, Joy’s strange odyssey is one worth taking due to Russell’s exuberance and Lawrence’s talent.
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