Blogger’s Update (11/21): Final box office numbers for the film put it at just a $901,000 opening, adding more insult to injury.
When I began writing my Oscar Watch posts several weeks ago, the general consensus was this: Damien Chazelle’s LaLaLand (based on its festival screenings) was the front runner for Best Picture. It still is. Furthermore, there was a trio of unseen contenders to upset that notion: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s BillyLynn’sLongHalftimeWalk.
Silence has still yet to land any eyeballs on it and remains a mystery. Fences has held industry screenings and established itself as a player in Picture and several other races. Yet for Billy, the narrative has gone in a significantly different direction.
The war drama, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, looked to be a serious awards force on paper. After all, Lee has won the Best Director statue twice for 2005’s BrokebackMountain and 2012’s LifeofPi. Both of those films were nominated for the grand prize but came up short. Two of his other efforts – 1995’s SenseandSensibility and 2000’s CrouchingTiger, HiddenDragon also nabbed Pic nods. Walk features an eclectic cast surrounding unknown Joe Alwyn in the title role that includes Kristen Stewart, Steve Martin, Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund.
And it was being touted as a potential visual marvel as Lee and his effects crew were shooting it at 120 frames per second (think super duper HD). Then something happened on the march to Academy glory… people actually saw it.
The result? Many critics were not kind to it (it’s at just 41% on Rotten Tomatoes). Following its first festival exposure in New York, the Oscar fortunes took a tumble. Yet even after that, I still managed to keep it in my top 20 possibilities for a Picture nomination until yesterday. Why? On the chance that audiences would respond positively enough to it to keep it viable.
Well… that viability just took a nose dive this afternoon. Walk opened wide today and forecasts for the weekend have it grossing just $2-$3 million dollars. Let me translate: it’s bombing very, very badly.
One month ago, before anyone had seen it, Billy Lynn looked like it could receive multiple nominations come Oscar time. As of today, the highest likelihood is that it will walk away with zero.
Just two months back, director Peter Berg and star Mark Wahlberg collaborated on the timely Deepwater Horizon, which opened to decent box office numbers and reviews but little Oscar hope (save for some potential recognition in the Sound categories). Last night at the AFI Film Festival, their third team-up (the other was 2013’s Lone Survivor) was unveiled in the form of Patriots Day.
Another timely drama – Day focuses on the Boston Marathon bombing and the city’s law enforcement and political response to the tragedy. Wahlberg headlines a cast that includes John Goodman, J.K. Simmons, Kevin Bacon, and Michelle Monaghan. The reported response from the AFI crowd was overwhelmingly positive and early critical reaction puts it at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes. The general consensus? “It gets the job done.”
So where does this information put Patriots Day in the Oscar derby? I would say as an outside contender. I had yet to put the picture into consideration in my top 20 possibilities for a nomination, but it’s feasible that it could slide in towards the bottom next week. It certainly seems more likely for a nod than Deepwater. And don’t be shocked if Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross get some love for their score, which has already been singled out in some reviews.
Time will tell if this manages to become more of a realistic possibility as the weeks move along.
Hey all! Back at it again with my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories for your perusal. Over the last seven days, a couple of developments have occurred. Both Rules Don’t Apply and Miss Sloane screened for critics at the AFI Film Festival. Both were looked at as potential awards contenders, yet their prospects both diminished upon their unveiling. The two films are both hovering around mid-60s on Rotten Tomatoes and the likelihood of either competing for the big prize is remote. That does not, however, hold true for their leading performances. Both Warren Beatty in Rules and Jessica Chastain in Sloane are slotted in the #6 position in Actor and Actress, making both of them real possibilities in those races.
On another note, Arrival opened at the box office higher than expected. Audiences were more polarized than critics (many of them loved it) on it, yet its chances at a Best Pic nod seems quite possible at press time.
Allied opens next weekend and reviews should be coming in soon, so its prospects will become much clearer when I write my column on Thanksgiving.
A final comment: next week will be the last weekly post for November and come December, I’ll be predicting the possibilities in all categories at the big dance.
And with that – my weekly Oscar forecast:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 9)
8. Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
13. Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Sully (PR: 16)
15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
16. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 18)
18. Allied (PR: 20)
19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rules Don’t Apply
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Best Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)
7. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 7)
9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 2)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
7. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 4)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
10. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aaron Eckhart, Sully
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
The Wolf Pack of TheHangover came from the minds of writers Jon Lucas and Scott Moore and it kicked off a male-centric trilogy of frequent hilarity (at least the first one) where bros could be wild bros. This same duo now tries to do the same with frazzled and overworked matriarchs in BadMoms and the result is considerably more hit and miss. We don’t know the answer to this question, but perhaps if this pic had been penned by an actual mom, this may have been more insightful. As it stands, this is an often generic and frequently blander than it should be experience punctuated by occasional real laughs.
Amy (Mila Kunis) is a do everything and overworked mother of two with a husband not pulling his weight. When she catches him internet cheating and sends him packing, her already jam-packed agenda just expands. She finds a kindred spirit in Kiki (Kristen Bell) whose own hubby is lackadaisical in his duties and a free spirit in single mom Carla (Kathryn Hahn), who has a hands off approach with her teenager. Together, they form their own pack, rebelling against their kids school’s militant PTA leader Gwendolyn (Christina Applegate). It culminates with Amy challenging her for the next PTA election.
BadMoms makes it point early – that youngsters today are too micro managed and coddled and that too much is often expected of them in class. The items of prohibited ingredients for the bake sale reads like a list of pretty much every one there is. The central trio here stick it to the (wo)man with their changed parenting style and learn that sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. Kind of like this movie.
Since this is from the dudes responsible for TheHangover, there is a bit of raunch to go with a surprising amount of blandness. The cast is all just peachy, but no one particularly stands out (Bell’s character is pretty under written, truth be told). Hahn is a talent and she’s essentially given the Melissa McCarthy Bridesmaids part, even getting to give a big ole pep talk at one point. There is a romantic subplot between Amy and a single dad (Jay Hernandez) that doesn’t really warrant much attention.
Will Moms look at BadMoms as a satisfactory excursion away from their crazy lives? I’m sure some will, but this never rose above a level of mediocrity for this non-parent. And if you say maybe you have to be a Mom to get it, remind yourself that it wasn’t written by one.
There’s directors and actors who take time between projects and then there’s those that really do. Warren Beatty belongs in that category and Rules Don’t Apply (out Thanksgiving weekend) marks his first turn behind the camera in 18 years and first time in front of the camera in over 15 years.
The legendary star is notoriously slow-paced when it comes to perfecting his works and Apply was actually wrapped for the most part about two and a half years ago. The old school Hollywood tale set in the 1950s casts Beatty as famed reclusive billionaire Howard Hughes with a romantic plot between costars Lily Collins and Alden Ehrenreich (soon to be the next Han Solo in that Star Wars spin-off). The supporting cast is filled with familiar faces that include Warren’s wife Annette Bening, Matthew Broderick, Alec Baldwin, Ed Harris, Oliver Platt, Haley Bennett, Candice Bergen, Steve Coogan, and Dabney Coleman.
As mentioned, the last pic Beatty directed was 1998’s Bulworth, which made $26 million. His last appearance in any film was 2001’s Town & Country, which faltered with just $6.7 million. Reviews have been mixed and it sits at 62% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
Rules Don’t Apply could face a tough time breaking out in any way. The critical notices have taken it out of the running as a true Oscar contender. Adult moviegoers may be preoccupied with Allied, which opens against it. That leads me to a belief that this could only manage mid single digits for both the three-day and five-day weekend.
Rules Don’t Apply opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Thirteen years after its predecessor opened over the Turkey Day weekend, Billy Bob Thornton’s booze fueled holiday cheer returns in Bad Santa 2. The original has hit cult status, but it’s worth noting that it did quite well in its initial theatrical run. In 2003, it debuted to $12.2 million over the Friday to Sunday holiday frame and $16.8 million counting its Wednesday and Thursday grosses. It eventually earned $60M domestic.
Mark Waters (maker of hits like Freaky Friday and Mean Girls) takes over directorial duties from Terry Zwigoff. Thornton is back in the title role alongside returnees Tony Cox and Brett Kelly, in addition to Kathy Bates and Christina Hendricks.
2016 has seen a consistent pattern of long gestating sequels not matching the grosses of the first. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bad Santa 2 followed the same trajectory. Reviews so far have been mixed to negative. I’ll predict this doesn’t match what we saw 13 years ago and struggles to top low to mid double digits for its five-day.
Bad Santa 2 opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard join forces in the World War II set romantic thriller Allied, out next week over the Thanksgiving frame. Robert Zemeckis, who’s made plenty of hits but misfired with last year’s The Walk, handles directorial responsibilities and the supporting cast includes Lizzy Caplan, Jared Harris, and Matthew Goode.
Paramount Pictures is hoping that adult crowds will turn out over the holiday weekend. It must be noted that Mr. Pitt has obviously been the subject of much press over the last few months due to his separation from Angelina Jolie. How that plays into box office dollars is an unknown. The star’s filmography is not short of WWII era titles, as he headlined both Inglourious Basterds and Fury (which made $120M and $85M, respectively).
Whether Allied gets to that level could be a question mark, but solid reviews would certainly help (there’s none at press time). I’ll say this debuts to mid teens over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with low 20s a realistic estimate for the five-day gross. That could eventually get it to Fury level, though Basterds numbers would be a reach.
Allied opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $21.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Disney’s back at it again over Thanksgiving weekend as their animated adventure Moana hits screens. The musical fantasy comes from directors John Musker and Ron Clements, the duo responsible for now classics The Little Mermaid and Aladdin. Lin-Manuel Miranda (who started a little Broadway show called Hamilton) co-writes songs and voice over work is provided by Auli’i Cravalho (as the title character) and Dwayne Johnson.
Reviews for the pic have been quite solid so far – it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and Moana looks to continue what has been a record-breaking year for the Mouse Factory. It was over Turkey Day in 2015 that the studio experienced a rare animated misfire when The Good Dinosaur debuted to a middling $39 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $55 million for the five-day frame.
With stronger critical notices and Disney on a hot streak, Moana looks poised to improve upon that performance rather significantly. I’ll peg this at mid 50s and mid to high 70s for the respective 3 and 5 day grosses.
Moana opening weekend prediction: $56.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $77.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
It’s another busy weekend at the box office as Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them looks to dominate the charts with three other newbies debuting. They are: coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen, Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, and boxing biopic Bleed for This. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As mentioned, the newest adaptation from a J.K. Rowling work should easily place first (just like the Potter pics) and I’ve got it pegged for a mid 80s premiere (if it went higher, that wouldn’t shock me).
Holdover blockbusters Doctor Strange and Trolls should drop to second and third with Arrival possibly battling it out with newcomers Seventeen and Walk for the 4-6 positions. As for Bleed, it should be outside the top 6 and I’ve got it pegged at just $5.8M (though it could be a potential sleeper).
As for where the blog readers stand on my predictions for the newbies:
Fantastic Beasts: 60% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 9% Too High
The Edge of Seventeen: 44% Just About Right, 39% Too Low, 17% Too High
Billy Lynn: 47% Too High, 37% Just About Right, 16% Too Low
Bleed for This: 57% Too Low, 36% Just About Right, 7% Too High
And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend ahead:
1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Predicted Gross: $83.1 million
2. Doctor Strange
Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. Trolls
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. Arrival
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. The Edge of Seventeen
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
6. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
Box Office Results (November 11-13)
In a robust weekend, holdovers held over very well and some newcomers had solid results (with one exception).
Marvel’s Doctor Strange retained the #1 spot in its sophomore frame with a $42.9 million gross (ahead of my $37.5M projection) to bring its ten-day total to $152M.
The news was also great in weekend #2 for Dreamworks animated Trolls as it grossed $34.9 million in second (more than my $26.8M estimate) for a hair raising $93M total.
Critically acclaimed sci-fi drama Arrival had a fine third place showing – arriving with $24 million (just above my $22.4M prediction). While audiences were a bit more mixed than reviewers, it could settle in for fairly small drops in future weekends and manage to top $100M.
Fourth place saw Almost Christmas deliver a pleasing $15.1 million (though not matching my $18.3M forecast).
Rounding out the top five was Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, holding nicely in its second weekend with $10.6 million (I said $8.9M). The lauded WWII drama has taken in $32M thus far.
The dud of the weekend was the Naomi Watts horror thriller Shut In, which managed just $3.5 million for 8th place. I predicted a bit higher with $5.7M.
Yet another piece of the Oscar puzzle revealed itself last night when MissSloane premiered at the AFI Film Festival. This comes from director John Madden (who helmed the 1998 Best Picture winner ShakespeareinLove) and focuses on the issues of gun control and Washington lobbyists.
Some of the early reviews have been positive but others have been mixed (it sits at 60% at the moment on Rotten Tomatoes). This looked like a potential long shot contender for Picture and Director recognition and the buzz out of AFI suggests it won’t happen.
There’s a sterling supporting cast that includes Mark Strong, Michael Stuhlbarg, Alison Pill, John Lithgow, Jake Lacy, and Sam Waterston. Don’t look for their names, however, to garner any Academy attention. And there’s Gugu Mbatha-Raw, who’s been singled out in some notices and could be a dark horse contender in Supporting Actress (though that probably won’t happen).
No, where MissSloane could factor into awards season is the way it’s always thought to have been and that’s with the lead performance from Jessica Chastain. She’s been nominated twice before – in Supporting for 2011’s TheHelp and lead in 2012’s ZeroDarkThirty. Initial reviews have praised her work and remarked that she carries the movie.
In a normal year, Chastain might be a shoo-in for a nomination. Not in 2016 and that’s because Actress is incredibly competitive this year. The trio of Annette Bening (20thCenturyWomen), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (LaLaLand) all look poised for nods. The final two slots look to be filled by a combo of any of the following: Chastain, Meryl Streep (FlorenceFosterJenkins), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Amy Adams (Arrival). Upset entries could include Isabelle Huppert (Elle) or Rebecca Hall (Christine). And we are still waiting on Taraji P. Henson (HiddenFigures) and Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers).
See what I mean by competition? That said, Chastain (while no threat to win) solidified her name into this busy race with the Sloane screening.
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