The October box office rolls along as three new titles debut: Ben Affleck’s CIA thriller The Accountant, stand-up concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now?, and Mattel toy adaptation Max Steel. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, my estimated high teens for Accountant should be enough of a number to make it #1. For #2, I’m looking at an extremely tight race between Mr. Hart and Ms. Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train’s sophomore frame.
Due to a very low prognosis for Max Steel at $3.8 million, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and Deepwater Horizon should round out the top five.
When it comes to where the readers are at with my newcomer estimates:
The Accountant – 48% Too Low, 43% Just About Right, 9% Too High
Kevin Hart: What Now? – 45% Just About Right, 33% Too High, 22% Too Low
Max Steel – 46% Too Low, 36% Too High, 18% Just About Right
And with that – my take on that top 5 for the weekend ahead:
1. The Accountant
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
2. Kevin Hart: What Now?
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
3. The Girl on the Train
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)
5. Deepwater Horizon
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 7-9)
As expected, The Girl on the Train topped the charts, rolling in with $24.5 million. This is a pretty decent debut that did come in below my $28.2M forecast. However, its middling B Cinemascore grade indicates plenty of audience members weren’t wild about it.
Last weekend’s champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children dropped to second with $15.1 million, a bit ahead of my $14.3M projection. The 10 day total stands at $51 million.
In its sophomore frame, Deepwater Horizon was third with $11.5 million – in line with my $11.9M estimate for a $38 million total.
The Magnificent Seven was fourth with $9 million (higher than my too clever $7.7M prediction) and has earned $75 million.
Storks rounded out the high five at $8.2 million (I said $9.3M) and it’s earned an underwhelming $49 million.
Lackluster newbies were sixth and seventh. Once considered a strong Oscar contender, the fading The Birth of a Nation disappointed with $7 million. I went higher with $10.5M.
Teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life was right under with only $6.8 million (I said $7.8M).
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The New York Film Festival has screened another high-profile Oscar contender and that would be Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women. The comedic drama set in the late 1970s was unveiled today to a lot of positive reviews and some that pointed out various flaws.
I’ve included Women on my list of 25 possible Best Picture nominees (as of yesterday it stood at #19). Based on the initial buzz, it could move up some slots next Thursday. Yet I would maintain that it’s unlikely at this juncture that it’ll be included among the five to ten eventual nominees. Same goes for Mills in the Director race.
The director’s last effort (Beginners) nabbed Christopher Plummer a Best Supporting Actor victroy. And it’s in the acting categories that this film has always seemed like a stronger contender and the New York screening has confirmed that. Ms. Bening has heard her name called for Academy recognition four times, but she’s never won. My latest predictions listed her as fourth for likelihood in receiving a Best Actress nod and that still seems right. Critics have praised her work here and she’s probably on her way to her fifth nomination. It still appears, however, that the trio of Emma Stone (La La Land), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Viola Davis (Fences) have a firmer chance at actually winning.
Early notices have also pointed out the work of both Elle Fanning and Greta Gerwig. It’s unlikely that both will be nominated in Supporting Actress (though you never know). The edge currently goes to Gerwig. As for Crudup in Supporting Actor, he’s probably on the outside looking in, though it’s worth noting that Supporting Actor looks wide open at the moment. While Mills won’t see a Directing nod, Original Screenplay is possible (though there’s major competition there too).
Bottom line: The early buzz for 20th Century Women solidified the standing of Bening and Gerwig, with outside shots at other races.
It’s Thursday and that means I’m back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. So what’s transpired over the past seven days? Quite a bit! The Girl on the Train, which opens tomorrow, was screened with very mixed critical reaction. It had been at the lower end (#24 last week) of possible Best Picture nominees, but it now appears its chances have been completely derailed. Don’t expect it to appear on the list again. I do still have Emily Blunt as a long-shot Actress possibility, but Haley Bennett’s work in Supporting Actress and an Adapted Screenplay nomination have also fallen off.
We also got a trailer for Pablo Larrain’s Jackie, which could be a contender in several races. And we received official word that Ben Affleck’s Prohibition era crime pic Live by Night will be released in limited fashion in late December, qualifying it for the Academy’s consideration.
And there was the debut at the New York Film Festival of Ana DuVernay’s race relations documentary 13th. It’s important to note that no doc has been nominated for Best Picture, so it’s got a steep hill to climb. Yet it’s possible and joins the contenders of hopefuls this week.
*A final note before we get to predictions. It is my plan throughout October to keep with listing 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 in the other races. By the first week of November, this will shift to 20 for Best Picture and ten in the others.
And with that, this week’s predictions:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Moonlight (PR: 7)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Arrival (PR: 11)
12. Sully (PR: 12)
13. Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)
15. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
16. 13th (PR: Not Ranked)
17. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 16)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
19. 20th Century Women (PR: 18)
20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
21. The Founder (PR: 22)
22. Gold (PR: 21)
23. Allied (PR: 23)
24. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Girl on the Train
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
3. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 9)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 7)
9. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)
11. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
15. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)
12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 10)
13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)
15. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 14)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 12)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 11)
14. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Rachel Weisz, Denial
Sally Field, My Name is Doris
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
5. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 10)
9. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 14)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 8)
12. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 7)
13. Lucas Hedges, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 11)
14. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 13)
15. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timothy Spall, Denial
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
Mattel toys are being brought to the big screen next weekend when Max Steel debuts. The superhero tale has a reported budget of just $15-$20 million and that’s probably a good thing for its sake.
Steel features Ben Winchell in the lead alongside Ana Villafane, Andy Garcia, and Maria Bello and some CG aliens. The marketing campaign for this seems pretty darn quiet and one wonders if its studio has much faith in it.
A much higher profile Mattel related property will arrive later when Justin Lin directs a pic based on the Hot Wheels line. As far as this one goes, unless there’s a legion of Max Steel lovers clamoring for a barely marketed adaptation, I see this debuting poorly and fading quickly.
Max Steel opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
Kevin Hart has been busy at the box office in 2016. Ride Along 2 debuted in January with an overall gross of $90 million (shy of its predecessor, but not bad). This summer came Central Intelligence, his team-up with The Rock that marked his second highest grosser ever at $127 million (after the first Ride Along, which made $134M). While the comedian has broken through on the silver screen in a major way, he hasn’t forgotten his stand-up roots. That leads to Kevin Hart: What Now?, out next weekend, which presents his latest comedy tour with a show taped in 2015 in Philadelphia.
For comparisons sake, it’s been three years since Mr. Hart released his last stand-up pic theatrically. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain had a $10 million premiere with a $32M eventual domestic haul. Comedy concerts released in multiplexes are a rare breed, but there’s some hope this could outshine Explain. The most obvious reason is that Hart has become a much bigger movie star in the three years that have transpired. On the other hand, moviegoers know even more now that Now will likely be available for their viewing pleasure via streaming quite soon.
Add that up and I believe What Now? will manage to outpace Explain for a debut in the low to mid double digits.
Kevin Hart: What Now? opening weekend prediction: $13.5 million
It’s been a busy year for Mr. Ben Affleck as he made his debut as the Caped Crusader in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and will unveil his next directorial effort, the Prohibition era crime drama Live by Night, this December. And that’s not all because next weekend comes The Accountant.
The action thriller stars Batfleck and is directed by Gavin O’Connor, who’s had a mixed filmography with critical and commercial pleasers like Miracle and Warrior. There’s also his previous effort – the Natalie Portman flop of a Western Jane Got a Gun. This will be a true test of Affleck’s star power as he’s really the sole selling point. Costars include Anna Kendrick, J.K. Simmons, Jon Bernthal, Jeffrey Tambor, and John Lithgow.
Two Octobers back, the star had one of his largest career hits with Gone Girl, which debuted to $37 million. The Accountant will try to lure in adult moviegoers who (unlike in the summer) have had plenty of offerings to choose from, including Sully, The Magnificent Seven, Deepwater Horizon, and The Girl on the Train. While this could reach over $20 million, a debut in the high teens seems like the numbers this Accountant will manage.
The Accountant opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
For my Kevin Hart: What Now? prediction, click here:
The first full weekend of the October box office brings us a trio of newcomers: big-screen adaptation of last year’s bestselling thriller The Girl on the Train, Nate Parker’s slavery drama The Birth of a Nation, and teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
While my prediction for Train doesn’t get it near Gone Girl (the blockbuster pic released two years ago on the same weekend that it’s compared to the most), it shouldn’t have much trouble locking down the #1 position.
Birth has received plenty of publicity – first for its rave screenings at festivals and then regarding past legal issues for its director, writer, and star. I have this reaching just over double digits. As for Middle School, it could be stuck in a battle for the five spot with the third weekends of Magnificent Seven and Storks. That said, I’ll predict Storks has a small drop-off and leaps over both of them.
As for other holdovers, I expect current champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children to dip a bit further in its sophomore frame than Deepwater Horizon. Both should move down a spot to second and third.
Here’s how the blog’s readers feel about my estimates for the newbies:
The Girl on the Train – 48% Just About Right, 37% Too Low, 15% Too High
The Birth of a Nation – 42% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 23% Too High
Middle School – 58% Too Low, 25% Too High, 17% Just About Right
And with that, a top 7 predictions for the weekend ahead:
1. The Girl on the Train
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
2. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)
3. Deepwater Horizon
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)
4. The Birth of a Nation
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
5. Storks
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)
6. Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
7. The Magnificent Seven
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (how about that?? – representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (September 30-October 2)
Tim Burton nabbed his seventh #1 opener of his filmography as Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children took in $28.8 million, schooling my $19.6M forecast. This is a pretty decent debut, though it’s unlikely to join the $100M club as six of the director’s other features have.
Deepwater Horizon premiered in second and I incorrectly had it making more than Peregrine and those strange kiddos. The big-budget disaster pic starring Mark Wahlberg had a muted start (especially considering its price tag) at $20.2 million, below my $24.7M estimate. Its best hope is for meager declines in coming weekends.
The Magnificent Seven was third, dipping a bit farther than anticipated in weekend 2 with $15.6 million. I predicted $18.2M. The Denzel Washington/Chris Pratt Western has made $61 million thus far.
Storks was fourth in its sophomore frame with $13.4 million (I was right there with a $13.2M estimate). The animated pic has grossed $38 million in ten days.
Sully was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $9.1M) as it entered nine digit territory with $105 million to date.
Lackluster newcomers filled the six and seven positions. The oft-delayed Masterminds earned $6.5 million, on the money with my $6.3M prediction. Disney’s Queen of Katwe failed to break through with audiences with just $2.4 million (less than half of my generous $5M projection).
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Two years ago, David Fincher’s Gone Girl successfully adapted its mega-hit novel source material. It earned $167 million stateside and nabbed an Oscar nomination for its lead, Rosamund Pike. This Friday’s The Girl on the Train has been compared to that title frequently. It’s based on a mystery thriller novel that scored with readers just last year. It’s expected to bring in a large female demographic when it debuts this weekend. It has a female lead (Emily Blunt) with a role some have speculated could garner Academy attention. In my previous Oscar prediction posts (they come out every Thursday folks!), I’ve listed Train as a possibility for Actress (Blunt), Supporting Actress (Haley Bennett), Adapted Screenplay, and even Picture. I will note that I had yet to include any of those nominations within the predicted five (or five to ten regarding Picture).
Well, today the critical reaction was unleashed on The Girl on the Train with numerous reviews rolling in. The verdict? Mixed. Very mixed. EW gave it a rave, but several other prominent writers were not kind at all. I don’t really believe this will endanger its box office prospects (I’ve got it slated for a $28.2M debut). Its Oscar prospects, on the other hand, appear… gone. This Thursday, I’ll have my updated post listing the possibilities for the previously mentioned categories. Blunt and Bennett have received some kind words in even some of the negative reviews. Yet their inclusion in the acting races appears far less likely than last week. Screenplay or Picture? Not a chance.
As has been discussed on the blog before, comedy is typically the genre that lends itself least to sequels. A major reason: most of ’em aren’t made with a planned follow-up in mind and therefore contrivances must be invented for them to exist.
This general rule applies to Neighbors2: SororityRising, which arrives two years after the success of the original. In 2014, the teaming of Seth Rogen and Rose Byrne vs. Zac Efron’s wild frat next door was a mostly effective raunchy pic with a couple of gags (air bags) that soared. $150 million domestic later, returning director Nicholas Stoller and his stars picked a pretty simple premise for another installment. Put a sorority there instead of a frat and watch similar hijinks ensue!
This happens when college freshman Shelby (Chloe Grace Moretz) goes to pledge at sororities and discovers they aren’t allowed to hold the wild bashes that their male counterparts are. So she enlists some other girls and Beastie Boys’s it beside the Radners (Rogen, Byrne) who are now expecting their second child. Kappa Nu is formed with an assist from Teddy (Efron), who’s still a bit salty from what went down when he inhabited the property. He’s also painfully still a man-child and the screenplay does get some decent mileage out of that (his changed friendship with frat bro Dave Franco is an example).
As with the first Neighbors installment, games of one upmanship (or upgirlship I guess) go down. The Radners are terrified because the house is in escrow as they’re set to become suburbanites and the new tenants might not appreciate the newly minted party pad. Shelby and her newfound sisters are determined to stay. And if that all sounds a lot like 2014, it is. Same story, different gender.
Rising gets a some solid chuckles out of exploiting the physique of both Mr. Efron and Mr. Rogen. The best moments come from our lead couple acting as de facto parents to Teddy, yet they’re few and far between. This is due to the familiar tale of Kappa Nu and their schemes that involve some serious felonies that the frat guys would’ve balked at.
There have been plenty of comedic #2’s far worse than this. The trio of Rogen, Byrne, and Efron do give it their all and don’t just go through the motions. Still – this one feels mostly uninspired despite the talent involved and keeps that general comedy sequel rule intact.
Another “re-imagining” of the Tarzan tale? Could this work at all?
YOU…
might be surprised by how some wise choices contribute to David Yates’s TheLegendofTarzan being a fairly satisfying experience.
The first solid choice is not to make this an origin story like we’ve seen repeatedly with franchises in recent years. When the proceedings begin, Tarzan (Alexander Skarsgard) is settled in London as Lord Greystoke with wife Jane (Margot Robbie). His childhood of growing up in the wild and being able to communicate with the jungle creatures is told as backstory and it doesn’t take up much screen time.
Of course, we know a plot point must return Greystoke to his native grounds. It involves bad guy Leon Rom (Christoph Waltz) collecting some precious diamonds from a tribe led by a Chief (Djimon Hounsou). In exchange for the stones, the Chief only wants Tarzan in return. You see – our title character had a run-in with the Chief’s only son years ago.
To the jungle we go with lots of CG animals that look fine, though maybe not quite as exquisite as in TheJungleBook or the revamped Apes franchise. Joining Big T on the adventure are his wife and American envoy George Washington Williams (Samuel L. Jackson).
The second welcome choice here is Robbie, who’s radiance has permiated everything she’s been in. Beyond her top-notch work, the screenwriters succeed in making her more than a Damsel in a White Dress. She’s tough, feisty, funny, and equal to her man.
Tarantino stalwarts Waltz and Jackson give you pretty much what you’d expect. Jackson gets a couple decent one-liners and Waltz could play the conniving villain role in his sleep (and has with superior writing). Skarsgard’s performance will be remembered more for his muscle tone and vine swinging than much else (he looks the part though).
Even though this legend has been around forever, you may find yourself recalling this year’s live-action version of Kipling’s JungleBook from time to time and not just because of the CG. A scene where elephants are bowed to and treated as mystical creatures? Check. Overtones of colonialism that the filmmakers don’t really know how to deal with? Little bit. That said, we’ve got hungry hippos in Tarzan and they weren’t in Jon Favreau’s movie!
So while this may feel a bit familiar, the aforementioned pluses make this frequent return to this legend an entertaining enough time.
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