The combination of Dan Brown’s novel, Tom Hanks’s star power, and Ron Howard’s direction melds together for the third time as Inferno hits theaters next weekend. The thriller arrives a decade after The Da Vinci Code and five years after Angels & Demons. Costars for this include Felicity Jones (beginning a busy fall 2016 with A Monster Calls and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story coming up), Ben Foster, Omar Sy, and Irrfan Khan.
When Da Vinci hit theaters in the summer of 2006, it provided Hanks’s largest live-action opening of all time with $77 million and an eventual $217M domestic gross. In summer 2011, follow-up Angels couldn’t achieve those numbers, but did provide Hanks with his #2 biggest opener at $46 million and a final tally of $133M.
I don’t expect Inferno to match the numbers of either of its two predecessors. Critics haven’t been impressed. It currently stands at 23% on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, these Brown adaptations have been rather review proof (Code had 25%, Angels 37%). Many sequels in 2016 have posted middling numbers and this franchise certainly displayed a downward trend from 2006 to 2011.
Still, Hanks fans and the author’s fans should turn out to some degree. While I mentioned that this won’t approach the debuts of its aforementioned series entries, it could be in the running for its star’s third highest live-action premiere. In order to do so, it’d need to top the $35 million that Sully (out less than two months ago) achieved.
That seems right around where I expect Inferno to land opening weekend. I’ll predict it does fall a bit under that, preventing a Robert Langdon hat trick for Mr. Hanks.
It’s a particularly crowded weekend at the box office with four new wide releases hitting the multiplexes and another in semi-wide release. We have Tom Cruise’s action sequel Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, horror prequel Ouija: Origin of Evil, and the Zach Galifianakis led comedy (his second this month) Keeping Up with the Joneses. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
To add to the clutter, there’s also the faith-based drama I’m Not Ashamed, which debuts on around 500 screens. I’ve got it pegged at $2 million for its start.
So how will all this shake out? Well, it’s probable that the four newbies will all land in the top 5. I have Reacher rather easily winning the weekend with Ouija as the runner-up. The Accountant (which had a solid debut in the top spot this past weekend) could fall to third with Boo! and Joneses rounding out the top five.
Here’s how the blog readers see my picks for the newcomers:
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back: 50% Too Low, 41% Just About Right, 9% Too High
Ouija: Origin of Evil: 46% Just About Right, 27%, Too High, 27% Too Low
Boo! A Madea Halloween: 33% Too High, 33% Too Low, 33% Just About Right (how about that?!?!)
Keeping Up with the Joneses: 46% Too Low, 39% Just About Right, 15% Too High
Truth be told, this weekend is pretty unpredictable with all the fresh product coming our way. Let’s see what happens, but here’s how I have the top 5:
1. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back
Predicted Gross: $23.9 million
2. Ouija: Origin of Evil
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
3. The Accountant
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Boo! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Keeping Up with the Joneses
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
Box Office Results (October 14-16)
The numbers were quite good for Ben Affleck’s The Accountant as it scored a #1 opening with $24.7 million, easily topping my $17.6M prediction. Even though reviews were quite mixed, audiences liked what they saw it scored an A Cinemascore grade.
The Girl on the Train dipped to second in its sophomore weekend with a 50% drop to $12.2 million (a bit under my $13.4M projection). The Emily Blunt thriller has taken in $46 million thus far.
The stand-up comedy concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now? debuted in third with a decent $11.7 million, not quite matching my $13.5M estimate.
Tim Burton’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children was fourth with $8.9 million (I said $8.2M) to bring its tally to $65 million. Deepwater Horizon rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.8M) and it’s made $49 million.
Last (and least), Max Steel was met with a massive shrug from audience as it opened in 11th place with $2.1 million. I went a bit higher with $3.8M. Look for this one On Demand quite soon.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
One of the largest pieces of the Oscar puzzle came into sharper focus tonight as Ang Lee’s BillyLynn’sLongHalftimeWalk premiered at the New York Film Festival. For months, the film has rightfully been looked at as a massive awards contender. After all, the director has won two Best Director awards for BrokebackMountain and LifeofPi.
Based on its initial screening, it appears Walk has taken a significant hit. Early critical reaction is quite mixed and several reviews have been negative. I’ve had this pegged at between 2-5 for the last several weeks in terms of getting a Best Picture nod. I’ve also included Lee in the top 5 every week in terms of his nomination. At various junctures, I’ve also predicted Joe Alwyn (Actor), Steve Martin (Supporting Actor), Kristen Stewart (Supporting Actress), and Adapted Screenplay. Based on tonight’s buzz, that’s likely to change come Thursday when I make my next round of predictions.
Billy could still be a player in technical categories like Visual Effects and the Sound races. Yet the sound heard tonight in the Big Apple was a perceived Oscar heavyweight losing serious luster.
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are in! As with previous weeks, I’m ranking the top 25 most likely Best Picture nominees along with top 15 in seven other big races. Come November – those numbers will dwindle to 20 and 10, respectively. You can see where each nominee has risen or fallen or stayed the same from one week ago.
Some developments… Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk is expected to screen this weekend so the buzz will be out (meaning its Oscar picture will become more clear soon). Loving took a hit this week and is out of my Best Picture predictions for the first time (enter Arrival). And the poor debut of The Birth of a Nation has knocked it out of the top 25 altogether.
**I’ll note again that just because I rank a picture, director, or actor at #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting them to win. It just means their first on chances of a nomination. I won’t get into predicting winners until after the nominations are released.
And with that… let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Fences (PR: 2)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
5. Jackie (PR: 9)
6. Lion (PR: 4)
7. Moonlight (PR: 7)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
9. Arrival (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities
10. Loving (PR: 8)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 19)
12. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
13. Live by Night (PR: 13)
14. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
15. Sully (PR: 12)
16. 13th (PR: 16)
17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 20)
19. Miss Sloane (PR: 24)
20. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
21. Allied (PR: 23)
22. Gold (PR: 22)
23. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Founder (PR: 21)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
The Birth of a Nation
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 9)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 10)
11. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 13)
12. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 12)
14. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: 11)
15. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
7. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
12. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 14)
13. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 13)
15. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 14)
11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
12. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
14. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
4. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 5)
7. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 9)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 7)
10. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 13)
11. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
14. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 11)
15. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)
8. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
10. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
12. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 12)
13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)
14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (Not Ranked)
15. Guga Mbatha Raw, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
7. Loving (PR: 5)
8. Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
9. Toni Erdmann (PR: 15)
10. Allied (PR: 14)
11. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
12. The Lobster (PR: 10)
13. Gold (PR: 13)
14. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 8)
15. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Zootopia
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 8)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Live by Night (PR: 9)
9. Sully (PR: 6)
10. Elle (PR: 11)
11. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)
12. Indignation (PR: 10)
13. Certain Women (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Jungle Book (PR: 13)
15. Denial (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
A Monster Calls
Whew! And there you have it… I’ll be back at it next Thursday!
Tyler Perry just can’t seem to quit his signature Madea character, even though the franchise’s fortunes have dwindled in recent years. And so it is that Boo! A Madea Halloween hits multiplexes next weekend.
This is the ninth (yes, ninth) pic to feature the tough talking granny and sixth to bear her name. Let’s take a look at the numbers for the previous four. 2009’s Madea Goes to Jail was the high mark with a $41 million opening and $90M overall domestic haul. Both 2011’s Madea’s Big Happy Family and 2012’s Madea’s Witness Protection made $25 million out of the gate and then grossed $53M and $65M, respectively. Yet it slowed down a bit with the last one – 2013’s holiday themed A Madea Christmas, which earned $16 million for its roll out and ended with $52M.
The three year lay-off of Madea sightings could hinder this one a bit more and continue the downward trend. After all, if a Christmas pic featuring the character under performed, this likely doesn’t bode well for Halloween Madea. I’ll say low double digits to low teens is all Boo! manages to scare up.
Boo! A Madea Halloween opening weekend prediction: $12.5 million
For my Jack Reacher: Never Go Back prediction, click here:
Some familiar faces populate the action comedy Keeping Up with the Joneses, out next Friday. In fact, one of those faces is Zach Galifianakis, who just appeared in Masterminds, which performed poorly. Joneses and Masterminds have this in common: both were delayed by their studios, which usually isn’t a good sign.
This one costars Isla Fisher, Jon Hamm, and Gadot in a tale of a bored suburban couple whose lives are spiced up when a couple of secret agents move next door. Greg Mottola, director of Superbad and Adventureland, is behind the camera.
Keeping Up was originally scheduled to come out in April before its push back. Even with the talent involved, I’m not so sure the marketing campaign has been strong enough (or the trailers quite funny enough) to cause it to break out. There’s not much direct competition in the comedy genre, but there are a host of other pics clamoring for the attention of adult audiences.
This should hover right around low double digits. It should do better than the $6.5 million premiere of Galifianakis’s aforementioned early October effort Masterminds. Unfortunately, that’s not saying a whole lot for this late October release.
Keeping Up with the Joneses opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million
For my Jack Reacher: Never Go Back prediction, click here:
Two Halloween frames ago, the low-budget horror flick Ouija had a strong box office game. It opened to $19.8 million on its way to a $50M overall domestic gross. So it’s no surprise that its sequel (or prequel apparently) Ouija: Origin of Evil is in theaters next weekend.
The original cost $5 million. Evil only upped the budget slightly to $6 million, so profitability shouldn’t be an issue for Blumhouse Productions (a studio known for making their projects quickly and cheaply). Mike Flanagan takes over directorial duties from Stiles White and the cast includes Elizabeth Reaser, Annalise Basso, and Henry Thomas (Elliot from E.T.!).
Being the only horror title debuting around Halloween should help here, but I’m not convinced this will open on par with its predecessor. While it’s been a nice 2016 for the genre, Ouija wasn’t exactly considered a classic. A decently fair comparison could be Sinister 2, which opened to just $10 million in the summer of 2015 after the first one made $18 million for its start.
I’ll say Ouija part deux manages a mid teens origin and not high teens.
Ouija: Origin of Evil opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million
For my Jack Reacher: Never Go Back prediction, click here:
When the U.S. of A did the whole creepy doll comes to life thing nearly three decades ago, it was in the form of a foul mouthed, sarcastic lil freak named Chucky in Child’sPlay. In this U.K. set version of a similar concept titled TheBoy, we have a significantly more mild mannered and seriously less verbose porcelain doll that goes by the name of Brahms. The 1988 doll comes to life experience knew it was trashy fun. This 2016 experience is a little too mild in its approach to its concept… even dull from time to time, if you will. There’s some nice little creepy moments, but far fewer than there should be.
William Brent Bell’s movie intoroduces us to Greta (Lauren Cohan), who’s just moved across the pond from Montana. She’s trying to escape an abusive relationship and finds a nanny job at the stately manor of the elderly Heelshire couple (Jim Norton and Diana Hardcastle). Turns out that there is no child… at least not in human form. The Heelshires are caring for Brahms, the aforementioned porcelain eight year old boy that they treat as if he was alive. He comes with lots of instructions, too. Some concern not leaving him alone and having no guests over. This doesn’t apply to their grocery deliverer Malcolm (Rupert Evans), who explains that there was a real Brahms who apparently perished in a fire years ago. When the homeowners take their first vacation in ages, Greta is left to care for the boy herself.
Of course, that’s when strange sound effects and happenings begin and soon our heroine comes to realize that the Heelshires might not be so crazy after all. TheBoy has a rather slow build-up and while this is effective in plenty of other horror titles, it doesn’t exactly work here. We also spend a considerable amount of screen time on Greta’s potential burgeoning romance with Malcolm and her failed one with her ex.
Yet the real relationship at focus is her and that doll. And it’s clearly the most important one to Brahms. Is this all as silly as it sounds? Yes and no. Obviously the concept is bonkers, but the screenplay takes itself way more seriously than it should. The tone feels off most of the time.
That said, many of the actors give it their all. Cohan makes for an appropriately scared and bewildered protagonist and the thespians portraying Brahms’s folks have some early moments of creepiness.
Many a flick of this genre relies on twists and TheBoy is another. The one here is more of a head scratcher than a good one and leaves far more questions than answers. As I write that, I recognize I’m maybe taking this too seriously. If this had been produced with a bit more gleeful recognition of its own absurdity, I probably wouldn’t have cared if it made sense.
Nearly four years ago, Tom Cruise had a decent performer in the form of JackReacher, based on a series of thriller novels by Lee Child. The pic opened to $15 million over the Christmas holiday in 2012 and eventually took in a solid $80 million.
Still, that gross was not enough to figure a sequel was automatically warranted. Yet here we are with JackReacher: NeverGoBack, which re-teams Cruise with his LastSamurai director Edward Zwick and costars Cobie Smulders. The director of the its predecessor, Christopher McQuarrie, moved onto make the fifth Mission: Impossible and will reportedly do the sixth.
Whether this earns enough to see a third installment is questionable. Of Cruise’s last five pictures that he’s headlined, Reacher is actually the lowest grosser. The sequel will almost surely make more in its opening weekend, but it’s not exactly a fair comparison. Movies released over the Xmas weekend almost always open lower than they would over a typical weekend and develop longer legs in subsequent winter frames. So while the debut should be larger, I’m not sure it reaches $80M domestic in the long run.
I don’t see this getting much higher than mid 20s or much lower than $20M. My prediction essentially splits the difference.
JackReacher: NeverGoBack opening weekend prediction: $23.9 million
For my Ouija: OriginofEvil prediction, click here:
Four years ago on a Thursday evening, I made the snap decision to start a movie blog. I did it without much thought and with little clue what I wanted it to be.
I knew two things: I love movies and I love writing. And so I penned my first blog post. It’s called “My Love of Movies”. Look at it. Isn’t it adorable?
Yes, maybe the anniversary posts have dwindled in quality as time has passed. With every year comes the familiarity of the blog having become more of a reality. More of everyday life. What I’m writing at this moment is my 1,516th post.
Truth be told – 2016 hasn’t been the best year for movies. Oh, don’t get me wrong. There’s always those moments that I’ve described so lovingly in previous posts. A truly hilarious scene at an animated DMV run by sloths in Zootopia. A comic book adaptation in Deadpool that had moments of raunchy inspiration. And there’s a lot more for me to see in 2016.
Let’s get real for a second, friends. 2016 hasn’t been the best year for lots of things. Political discourse for one, but let us not go THERE.
Sequels. Too many of ’em. Too many we didn’t ask for.
Apparently Zoolander did say all that needed to be said fifteen years ago. Audiences weren’t ready to travel back to the Blair Witch woods. I could go on.
But I won’t. No, where 2016 has been truly sad is in the people we’ve lost. Hans Gruber of Die Hard is one of the greatest film villains in screen history. Alan Rickman brilliantly played him, along with lots of other amazing performances.
Gene Wilder may hold the record for appearing in the most flat out brilliant comedies, not to mention being a part of our collective childhoods in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory.
Our ears have been blessed to experience the music of Prince and David Bowie and witness their contributions to film.
I know what you might be thinking… this anniversary post is a bummer, dude!
A silver lining. A consolation point. We will always have film to remind us of the aforementioned artists brilliance.
We will always have the knowledge that the cherished memories we have of them are preserved.
We will always have the knowledge, film lovers that we are, that more memories will be formed with new amazing performers.
Every week on this blog, there are more box office predictions to be estimated. More Oscar Watch movies to be discussed. More reviews to be written.
There’s always more. It’s the NeverEnding Story of film that I described here three years ago:
Are there times it feels stale when the latest unwanted sequel is rolled out? Sure.
Are there moments you wonder where else the superhero genre can possibly go when we get a new one every couple months now? Yes.
And then Star Wars: The Force Awakens turns out to be a pleasure… and not unwanted. And then Deadpool brings something new to the genre.
I remember four years ago tonight writing that first blog post and wondering if I’d have any ideas for a second one. Then I figured out what I wanted the blog to be… and it constantly changes.
I love doing it. I thank you for reading it and I’m humbled to report that 2016 has been the most viewed year so far already! I’ve also tremendously valued my partnership with Fantasy Movie League that began this year and continuing my history of getting out predicted by Joe Giuliano at box office numbers.
2016 has been a challenge for us who love the silver screen and love incredible music. We remember that vile antagonist of John McClane in my favorite action movie ever.
We remember that gentle and hilarious man who brought us into a world of pure imagination.
We remember bathing in the beautiful sounds of the Purple Rain.
And we wait for the next moments of inspiration and all the other emotions that the movies bring.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 