The first weekend of December/post Thanksgiving frame is typically a sluggish one at the box office. Studios are waiting to release their December heavy hitters while it’s just leftovers to moviegoers to munch and catch up on. 2014 should be no exception, especially following a surprisingly lackluster Turkey Day weekend.
There are no new wide releases coming out. Only the barely marketed horror pic The Pyramid opens semi-wide on approximately 550 screens and I’ll predict it doesn’t even crack a million bucks. My official prediction is $977,000 – far outside the top five.
Additionally, this weekend usually means rather large drops for holdovers after the holiday weekend. Seeing that, I predict the top five not changing at all with their grosses being quite a bit lower.
My predictions for the weekend are:
1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $21.9 million (representing a drop of 61%)
2. Penguins of Madagascar
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)
3. Big Hero 6
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. Interstellar
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. Horrible Bosses 2
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)
Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)
Katniss and company easily ruled the holiday weekend as Mockingjay – Part 1 took in $56.9 million over the Friday to Sunday portion, on par with my $57.9M estimate. Over the five day, it made $82.6 million, just under my $85.7M prediction. The third entry in the franchise stands at $225 million currently and while it’s doing just fine, it will be the lowest grosser of the series thus far.
Dreamworks animated Penguins of Madagascar posted an unimpressive opening with $25.4 million over the three day and $35.4 million for the five day. This is well below my $40.1M and $54.7M projections. Whether it was the direct competition from Big Hero 6 or something else, family audiences simply didn’t come out for this one on the expected level.
Its aforementioned competitor Big Hero 6 was third in weekend #4 with $18.8 million (Friday to Sunday) and $25 million (Wednesday to Sunday) – in line with my respective $17M and $24.8M estimates. The hit Disney ‘toon has amassed $167M at press time.
Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar held up nicely in its fourth weekend with $15.7 million for the weekend and $21.9 million for the five day. This is considerably better than my projections of $10.9M and $15.5M. The space saga is at $147M and should still struggle to reach $200M.
Finally, Horrible Bosses 2 performed a giant belly flop. It managed an embarrassing fifth place debut with just $15.4 million for the three day and $22.7 million for the five. This is far under my respective estimates of $28.6M and $38.3M. Perhaps audiences had their fill of badly reviewed comedy sequels with Dumb and Dumber To. The sequel couldn’t even manage to earn in five days what the original made in three out of the gate ($28M). Not good.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
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