A comedy sequel 20 years in the making and a musical romantic drama hit the marketplace this weekend as Dumb and Dumber To and Beyond the Lights make their debuts. You can read my detailed predictions on both here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/dumb-and-dumber-to-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/beyond-the-lights-box-office-prediction/
My prediction for Dumb To is a bit lower than that of others and it stands a chance of opening #1. However, my estimate puts in a dogfight with Interstellar for the runner-up position with Disney’s Big Hero 6 remaining atop the charts. Hero should experience a smallish decline while Interstellar could lose close to 40% of its opening audience.
I’m predicting Beyond the Lights has a healthy debut at #4 (though others are putting it considerably lower than my projection) while Gone Girl should round out the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Big Hero 6
Predicted Gross: $38.9 million (representing a drop of 30%)
2. Dumb and Dumber To
Predicted Gross: $29.2 million
3. Interstellar
Predicted Gross: $28.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Beyond the Lights
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 29%)
Box Office Results (November 7-9)
Two big new releases saw their debuts this past weekend and both managed to open under my estimates.
Disney’s Big Hero 6, as predicted, opened in first with a sturdy $56.2 million, a bit shy of my $61.4M estimate. Still, the animated pic should anticipate a robust run ahead.
Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar performed decently, but undeniably below most expectations. It earned $47.5 million, well under my $57.2M estimate (which was lower than plenty of other prognosticators). Since its Wednesday IMAX roll out, it’s made $49.6M. This opening indicates that Interstellar could struggle to reach $200M domestically, which would be a letdown.
In third was Gone Girl with $6.2 million in weekend #6, just over my $5.4M estimate. The David Fincher hit has amassed an impressive $145M so far.
I incorrectly didn’t have the eventual #4 or #5 in my top five as Ouija was fourth with $5.8 million and Fury fifth with $5.6 million. Their respective totals stand at $43M and $69M.
I had Nightcrawler in third, but it dropped to seventh in weekend #2. The Jake Gyllenhall grossed $5.3 million, on pace with my $5.4M projection and has earned $19M at press time.
As for the animated The Book of Life, I didn’t quite anticipate how much Big Hero 6 would eat into its audience. It grossed just $2.7 million for a tenth place showing, while I predicted it’d be fifth with $5.3M. Its total is at $45 million.
That’s all for now, friends!
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