Box Office Predictions: September 12-14

The month long reign of the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ruling the top two spots at the box office should come to an end this weekend with two new releases: family sequel Dolphin Tale 2 and thriller No Good Deed. You can review my detailed posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/07/dolphin-tale-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/07/no-good-deed-box-office-prediction/

I’ll give Dolphin Tale 2 the edge to top the charts, but only because it’s scheduled to open on approximately 1500 more screens than Deed, which still has an outside shot at #1. Holdovers Guardians, Turtles, and Let’s Be Cops should round out the top five in a rather lackluster weekend before heavy hitters such as A Walk Among the Tombstones, The Equalizer, and Gone Girl arrive soon.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Dolphin Tale 2

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

2. No Good Deed

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

3. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

Box Office Results (September 5-7)

In what was the weakest box office frame in 13 years, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy was #1 with $10.3 million, right in line with my $10.9M projection. The superhero megahit has amassed $294 million and should blast past $300M this week.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was second with $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.6M estimate. It’s earned an impressive $174M so far and should top out around $190M.

Sleeper comedy hit Let’s Be Cops was third with my $5.5 million, above my $4.5M projection. Its total stands at $66M.

YA romance If I Stay was fourth as it also made $5.5 million, right in line with my $5.3M prediction and its haul is at an OK $39M.

Pierce Brosnan’s dud The November Man rounded out the top five with $4.3 million in weekend two, once again on pace with my $4.1M estimate. Its two week total is a weak $17M and it might reach $30M total domestically.

Finally, the faith based musical drama The Identical (the weekend’s only newbie) tanked with only $1.5 million for a pathetic 12th place debut, under my generous $3.9M projection.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time.