Box Office Predictions: June 13-15

Two very different sequels debut Friday and both are expected to inject a shot of adrenaline to the summer box office. DreamWorks animated How to Train Your  Dragon 2 and the R rated Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy 22 Jump Street are the newbies and you can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/how-to-train-your-dragon-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/22-jump-street-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I expect both sequels to open north of what their predecessors accomplished and I’m estimating this will be the first (and probably only) summer 2014 weekend that sees two pictures open above $50M.

The Fault in Our Stars is the current champ and it got off to a terrific start. However, it’s likely to suffer a big decline in weekend #2 due to many of its fans rushing to see it out of the gate. Maleficent in its third weekend should lose around half its audience and the same bodes for Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow.

If Fault drops as far as I’m predicting, it could create a real race for #3 with Maleficent.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $88.7 million

2. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $53.1 million

3. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million (representing a drop of 62%)

4. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

While I was right on point with this past weekend’s holdovers, I didn’t give either of the new entries quite enough credit.

The Fault in Our Stars dominated with a terrific $48 million debut – beyond my $43.1M projection. The book’s fans came out in droves and the pic managed to quadruple its meager budget in its initial weekend. As mentioned above, it’s likely to suffer a precipitous drop in weekend #2, but even if it does – Fault is unquestionably one of the season’s major sleepers.

Maleficent held up decently in its sophomore frame with $34.2 million – right on pace with my $34M estimate. The Disney feature has earned $128M so far and a $200M domestic gross is within reach.

Edge of Tomorrow couldn’t quite capitalize on its rock solid reviews and the Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner opened with a so-so $28.7 million. It did manage to top my $23.7M prediction, but considering its $178M massive budget – this is a letdown.

At fourth in its third weekend was X-Men: Days of Future Past with $15.1 million, on pace with my $14.9M estimate. The flick has made $189 million so far. In fifth was the Seth MacFarlane bomb A Million Ways to Die in the West with $7.3 million in weekend two, on par with my $7.1M projection. West has made only $30 million in ten days and it struggle to reach $50M.

That’s all for now, folks!